Publications de l’ancienne équipe GLACE (2014-2019)

Abstract: The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979-2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr(-1) over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16% of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

Abstract: Future sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models such as those from the CMIP5 experiment are often used as boundary forcings for the downscaling of future climate experiments. Yet, these models show some considerable biases when compared to the observations over present climate. In this paper, existing methods such as an absolute anomaly method and a quantile-quantile method for sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a look-up table and a relative anomaly method for sea-ice concentration (SIC) are presented. For SIC, we also propose a new analogue method. Each method is objectively evaluated with a perfect model test using CMIP5 model experiments and some real-case applications using observations. We find that with respect to other previously existing methods, the analogue method is a substantial improvement for the bias correction of future SIC. Consistency between the constructed SST and SIC fields is an important constraint to consider, as is consistency between the prescribed sea-ice concentration and thickness; we show that the latter can be ensured by using a simple parameterisation of sea-ice thickness as a function of instantaneous and annual minimum SIC.

Abstract: Reliable projections of ice sheets' future contributions to sea-level rise require models that are able to accurately simulate grounding-line dynamics, starting from initial states consistent with observations. Here, we simulate the centennial evolution of the Amundsen Sea Embayment in response to a prescribed perturbation in order to assess the sensitivity of mass loss projections to the chosen friction law, depending on the initialisation strategy. To this end, three different model states are constructed by inferring both the initial basal shear stress and viscosity fields with various relative weights. Then, starting from each of these model states, prognostic simulations are carried out using a Weertman, a Schoof and a Budd friction law, with different parameter values. Although the sensitivity of projections to the chosen friction law tends to decrease when more weight is put on viscosity during initialisation, it remains significant for the most physically acceptable of the constructed model states. Independently of the considered model state, the Weertman law systematically predicts the lowest mass losses. In addition, because of its particular dependence on effective pressure, the Budd friction law induces significantly different grounding-line retreat patterns than the other laws and predicts significantly higher mass losses.

Abstract: Estimating thermal conductivity of snow, firn, and porous ice is key for modeling the thermal regime of alpine and polar glaciers. Whereas thermal conductivity of snow was widely investigated, studies on firn and porous ice are very scarce. This study presents the effective thermal conductivity tensor computed from 64 3-D images of microstructures of snow, antarctic firn, and porous ice at -3, -20, and -60 degrees C. We show that, in contrast with snow, conductivity of firn and porous ice correlates linearly with density, is approximately isotropic, and is largely impacted by temperature. We report that performances of commonly used estimates of thermal conductivity vary largely with density. In particular, formulas designed for snow lead to significant underestimations when applied to denser ice structures. We present a new formulation to accurately estimate the thermal conductivity throughout the whole density range, from fresh snow to bubbly ice, and for any temperature conditions encountered in glaciers.

Abstract: Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1 degrees C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

Abstract: Chronologies of lake-sediment records covering the last centuries to millennia are usually based on both short-lived radionuclides and radiocarbon dating. However, beyond the range of short-lived radionuclides, age model accuracy often suffers from large radiocarbon uncertainties. For high-altitude records, this issue is even more prominent as terrestrial plant fragments for radiocarbon dating are often lacking due to the sparse vegetation in such environments. In this study, we evaluate the potential of the geomagnetic field secular variations as a complementary tool to establish more robust age-depth relationships. Our palaeomagnetic study, applied to five high-altitude lakes from the western European Alps, first shows that recent unconsolidated sediments can carry stable remanent magnetization. The analysis of the magnetic parameters indicates that low-coercivity pseudo-single domain magnetite grains carry the natural magnetization. Nevertheless, the quality of palaeomagnetic secular variation records varies from one lake to another. This quality can be illustrated through the calculation of the declination/inclination maximum angular variations and their comparison to the expected value. Compared with available models, the declination variations are usually too large and the inclination too high. We discuss the validity of palaeosecular variation (PSV) of the Earth's magnetic field regarding rock magnetism, magnetization processes and possible deformation during coring. From a magnetic point of view, the quality of data is variable, but the characteristic remanent magnetization direction is consistent at site level between neighbouring lakes and with the reference curve, suggesting that geomagnetic field secular variations are approximately recorded. Finally, we attempt to correlate the declination/inclination variations of the characteristic remanent magnetization measured in the five records to the reference geomagnetic model to provide additional chronological markers for age-depth modelling. These stratigraphic chrono-markers appear in systematic agreement with our previous chronological data and enable a reduction of dating uncertainties up to 30% when including these chrono-markers in the age-depth modelling. This agreement supports the interpretation that PSV may have been recorded more or less accurately depending on the studied lake. Therefore, coupled with a comprehensive understanding through other analysis (sedimentology, dating, geochemistry), PSV can be used to improve the age models in the more favourable cases.

Abstract: The Lamb weather type series is a subjective catalogue of daily atmospheric patterns and flow directions over the British Isles, covering the period 1861-1996. Based on synoptic maps, meteorologists have empirically classified surface pressure patterns over this area, which is a key area for the progression of Atlantic storm tracks towards Europe. We apply this classification to a set of daily pressure series from a few stations from western Europe, in order to reconstruct and to extend this daily weather type series back to 1781. We describe a statistical framework which provides, for each day, the weather types consistent enough with the observed pressure pattern, and their respective probability. Overall, this technique can correctly reconstruct almost 75% of the Lamb daily types, when simplified to the seven main weather types. The weather type series are described and compared to the original series for the winter season only. Since the low frequency variability of synoptic conditions is directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we derive from the weather type series an NAO index for winter. An interesting feature is a larger multidecadal variability during the nineteenth century than during the twentieth century.

Abstract: The interplay between microbes and atmospheric physical and chemical conditions is an open field of research that can only be fully addressed using multidisciplinary approaches. The lack of coordinated efforts to gather data at representative temporal and spatial scales limits aerobiology to help understand large scale patterns of global microbial biodiversity and its causal relationships with the environmental context. This paper presents the sampling strategy and analytical protocols developed in order to integrate different fields of research such as microbiology, -omics biology, atmospheric chemistry, physics and meteorology to characterize atmospheric microbial life. These include control of chemical and microbial contaminations from sampling to analysis and identification of experimental procedures for characterizing airborne microbial biodiversity and its functioning from the atmospheric samples collected at remote sites from low cell density environments. We used high-volume sampling strategy to address both chemical and microbial composition of the atmosphere, because it can help overcome low aerosol and microbial cell concentrations. To account for contaminations, exposed and unexposed control filters were processed along with the samples. We present a method that allows for the extraction of chemical and biological data from the same quartz filters. We tested different sampling times, extraction kits and methods to optimize DNA yield from filters. Based on our results, we recommend supplementary sterilization steps to reduce filter contamination induced by handling and transport. These include manipulation under laminar flow hoods and UV sterilization. In terms of DNA extraction, we recommend a vortex step and a heating step to reduce binding to the quartz fibers of the filters. These steps have led to a 10-fold increase in DNA yield, allowing for downstream omics analysis of air samples. Based on our results, our method can be integrated into pre-existing long-term monitoring field protocols for the atmosphere both in terms of atmospheric chemistry and biology. We recommend using standardized air volumes and to develop standard operating protocols for field users to better control the operational quality.

Abstract: Atmospheric moisture convergence on ice sheets provides an estimate of snow accumulation, which is critical to quantifying sea-level changes. In the case of East Antarctica, we computed moisture transport from 1980 to 2016 in five reanalyses and in radiosonde observations. Moisture convergence in reanalyses is more consistent than net precipitation but still ranges from 72 to 96 mm yr(-1) in the four most recent reanalyses, ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JRA 55 and MERR Lambda 2. The representation of long-term variability in reanalyses is also inconsistent, which justified resorting to observations. Moisture fluxes are measured on a daily basis via radiosondes launched from a network of stations surrounding East Antarctica. Observations agree with reanalyses on the major role of extreme advection events and transient eddy fluxes. Although assimilated, the observations reveal processes that reanalyses cannot model, some due to a lack of horizontal and vertical resolution, especially the oldest, NCEP DOE R2. Additionally, the observational time series are not affected by new satellite data unlike the reanalyses. We formed pan-continental estimates of convergence by aggregating anomalies from all available stations. We found statistically significant trends neither in moisture convergence nor in precipitable water.

Abstract: Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to sea level rise on Earth. They also represent crucial water resources in many tropical and semi-arid mountain catchments. Yet the magnitude of the recent ice loss is still debated. Here we present Andean glacier mass changes (from 10 degrees N to 56 degrees S) between 2000 and 2018 using time series of digital elevation models derived from ASTER stereo images. The total mass change over this period was -22.9 +/- 5.9 Gt yr(-1) (-0.72 +/- 0.22 m w.e.yr(-1) (m w.e., metres of water equivalent)), with the most negative mass balances in the Patagonian Andes (-0.78 +/- 0.25 m w.e. yr(-1)) and the Tropical Andes (-0.42 +/- 0.24 m w.e. yr(-1)), compared to relatively moderate losses (-0.28 +/- 0.18 m w.e. yr(-1)) in the Dry Andes. Subperiod analysis (2000-2009 versus 2009-2018) revealed a steady mass loss in the tropics and south of 45 degrees S. Conversely, a shift from a slightly positive to a strongly negative mass balance was measured between 26 and 45 degrees S. In the latter region, the drastic glacier loss in recent years coincides with the extremely dry conditions since 2010 and partially helped to mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of this severe and sustained drought. These results provide a comprehensive, high-resolution and multidecadal data set of recent Andes-wide glacier mass changes that constitutes a relevant basis for the calibration and validation of hydrological and glaciological models intended to project future glacier changes and their hydrological impacts.

Abstract: Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.

Abstract: We study a firn and ice core drilled at the new “Lock-In” site in East Antarctica, located 136 km away from Concordia station towards Dumont d'Urville. High-resolution chemical and physical measurements were performed on the core, with a particular focus on the trapping zone of the firn where air bubbles are formed. We measured the air content in the ice, closed and open porous volumes in the firn, firn density, firn liquid conductivity, major ion concentrations, and methane concentrations in the ice. The closed and open porosity volumes of firn samples were obtained using the two independent methods of pycnometry and tomography, which yield similar results. The measured increase in the closed porosity with density is used to estimate the air content trapped in the ice with the aid of a simple gas-trapping model. Results show a discrepancy, with the model trapping too much air. Experimental errors have been considered but do not explain the discrepancy between the model and the observations. The model and data can be reconciled with the introduction of a reduced compression of the closed porosity compared to the open porosity. Yet, it is not clear if this limited compression of closed pores is the actual mechanism responsible for the low amount of air in the ice. High-resolution density measurements reveal the presence of strong layering, manifesting itself as centimeter-scale variations. Despite this heterogeneous stratification, all layers, including the ones that are especially dense or less dense compared to their surroundings, display similar pore morphology and closed porosity as a function of density. This implies that all layers close in a similar way, even though some close in advance or later compared to the bulk firn. Investigation of the chemistry data suggests that in the trapping zone, the observed stratification is partly related to the presence of chemical impurities.

Abstract: A new 21.3 m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adelie Land (66.78 degrees S; 139.56 degrees E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adelie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (-19.3 parts per thousand +/- 3.1 parts per thousand for delta O-18 and 5.4 parts per thousand +/- 2.2 parts per thousand for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope-temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the delta O-18 seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135-145 degrees E) over the period 1998-2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess-delta O-18 relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adelie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

Abstract: Methane (CH4) in marine sediments has the potential to contribute to changes in the ocean and climate system. Physical and biochemical processes that are difficult to quantify with current standard methods such as acoustic surveys and discrete sampling govern the distribution of dissolved CH4 in oceans and lakes. Detailed observations of aquatic CH4 concentrations are required for a better understanding of CH4 dynamics in the water column, how it can affect lake and ocean acidification, the chemosynthetic ecosystem, and mixing ratios of atmospheric climate gases. Here we present pioneering high-resolution in situ measurements of dissolved CH4 throughout the water column over a 400 m deep CH4 seepage area at the continental slope west of Svalbard. A new fast-response underwater membraneinlet laser spectrometer sensor demonstrates technological advances and breakthroughs for ocean measurements. We reveal decametre-scale variations in dissolved CH4 concentrations over the CH4 seepage zone. Previous studies could not resolve such heterogeneity in the area, assumed a smoother distribution, and therefore lacked both details on and insights into ongoing processes. We show good repeatability of the instrument measurements, which are also in agreement with discrete sampling. New numerical models, based on acoustically evidenced free gas emissions from the seafloor, support the observed heterogeneity and CH4 inventory. We identified sources of CH4, undetectable with echo sounder, and rapid diffusion of dissolved CH4 away from the sources. Results from the continuous ocean laser-spectrometer measurements, supported by modelling, improve our understanding of CH4 fluxes and related physical processes over Arctic CH4 degassing regions.

Abstract: Torsion experiments were performed in polycrystalline ice at high temperature (0.97 T-m) to reproduce the simple shear kinematics that are believed to dominate in ice streams and at the base of fast-flowing glaciers. As clearly documented more than 30 years ago, under simple shear ice develops a two-maxima c axis crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), which evolves rapidly into a single cluster CPO with a c axis perpendicular to the shear plane. Dynamic recrystallization mechanisms that occur in both laboratory conditions and naturally deformed ice are likely candidates to explain the observed CPO evolution. In this study, we use electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and automatic ice texture analyzer (AITA) to characterize the mechanisms accommodating deformation, the stress and strain heterogeneities that form under torsion of an initially isotropic polycrystalline ice sample at high temperature, and the role of dynamic recrystallization in accommodating these heterogeneities. These analyses highlight an interlocking microstructure, which results from heterogeneity-driven serrated grain boundary migration, and sub-grain boundaries composed of dislocations with a [c]-component Burgers vector, indicating that strong local stress heterogeneity develops, in particular, close to grain boundaries, even at high temperature and high finite shear strain. Based on these observations, we propose that nucleation by bulging, assisted by sub-grain boundary formation and followed by grain growth, is a very likely candidate to explain the progressive disappearance of the c axis CPO cluster at low angle to the shear plane and the stability of the one normal to it. We therefore strongly support the development of new polycrystal plasticity models limiting dislocation slip on non-basal slip systems and allowing for efficient accommodation of strain incompatibilities by an association of bulging and formation of sub-grain boundaries with a significant [c] component.

Abstract: This work presents snapshot simulations of the late 20th and late 21st century Antarctic climate under the RCP8.5 scenario carried out with an empirically bias-corrected global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), forced with bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and run with about 100-km resolution over Antarctica. The bias correction substantially improves the simulated mean late 20th century climate. The simulated atmospheric circulation of the bias-corrected model compares very favorably to the best available AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type climate models. The simulated interannual circulation variability is improved by the bias correction. Depending on the metric, a slight improvement or degradation is found in the simulated variability on synoptic timescales. The simulated climate change over the 21st century is broadly similar in the corrected and uncorrected versions of the atmospheric model, and atmospheric circulation patterns are not geographically “pinned” by the applied bias correction. These results suggest that the method presented here can be used for bias-corrected climate projections. Finally, the authors discuss different possible choices in terms of the place of bias corrections and other intermediate steps in the modeling chain leading from global coupled climate simulations to impact assessment. Plain Language Summary Climate models are necessary and irreplaceable tools for climate projections, but despite continuous improvement, they still have biases, and their spatial resolution is too low to provide actionable climate change information at relevant small spatial scales. We present a method combining bias corrections and high-resolution climate modeling that allows improving climate projections at regional scales.

Abstract: In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere-GrIS interactions, such as the temperature-elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet-climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere-ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative one-way coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in fine-scale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB-elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB-elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5% lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3% lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7% (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6% compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes.

Abstract: The Antarctic continent is a vast desert and is the coldest and the most unknown area on Earth. It contains the Antarctic ice sheet, the largest continental water reservoir on Earth that could be affected by the current global warming, leading to sea level rise. The only significant supply of ice is through precipitation, which can be observed from the surface and from space. Remote-sensing observations of the coastal regions and the inner continent using CloudSat radar give an estimated rate of snowfall but with uncertainties twice as large as each single measured value, whereas climate models give a range from half to twice the space-time-averaged observations. The aim of this study is the evaluation of the vertical precipitation rate profiles of CloudSat radar by comparison with two surface-based micro-rain radars (MRRs), located at the coastal French Dumont d'Urville station and at the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station located in the Dronning Maud Land escarpment zone. This in turn leads to a better understanding and reassessment of CloudSat uncertainties. We compared a total of four precipitation events, two per station, when CloudSat overpassed within 10 km of the station and we compared these two different datasets at each vertical level. The correlation between both datasets is near-perfect, even though climatic and geographic conditions are different for the two stations. Using different CloudSat and MRR vertical levels, we obtain 10 km space-scale and short-timescale (a few seconds) CloudSat uncertainties from -13 % up to +22 %. This confirms the robustness of the CloudSat retrievals of snowfall over Antarctica above the blind zone and justifies further analyses of this dataset.

Abstract: This paper evaluates several daily precipitation products over western and central Europe, identifies and documents their respective strengths and shortcomings, and relates these to uncertainties associated with each of the products. We analyze one gauge-based, three satellite-based, and two reanalysis-based products using high-density rain gauge observations as reference. First, we assess spatial patterns and frequency distributions using aggregated statistics. Then, we determine the skill of precipitation event detection from these products with a focus on extremes, using temporally and spatially matched pairs of precipitation estimates. The results show that the quality of the datasets largely depends on the region, season, and precipitation characteristic addressed. The satellite and the reanalysis precipitation products are found to have difficulties in accurately representing precipitation frequency with local overestimations of more than 40%, which occur mostly in dry regions (all products) as well as along coastlines and over cold/frozen surfaces (satellite-based products). The frequency distributions of wet-day intensities are generally well reproduced by all products. Concerning the frequency distributions of wet-spell durations, the satellite-based products are found to have clear deficiencies for maritime-influenced precipitation regimes. Moreover, the analysis of the detection of extreme precipitation events reveals that none of the non-station-based datasets shows skill at the shortest temporal and spatial scales (1 day, 0.25 degrees), but at and above the 3-day and 1.25 degrees scale the products start to exhibit skill over large parts of the domain. Added value compared to coarser-resolution global benchmark products is found both for reanalysis and satellite-based products.

Abstract: The deployment of three drifting seismic stations on the Arctic sea ice during the winter of 2014-2015 with station inter-spacing between 30 and 80 km enables the characterization of the coherent seismic wavefield at these scales through the use of array methods. Two distinct vibrational modes are observed, corresponding to the fast and non-dispersive horizontally-polarized shear (SH) mode and the slow and dispersive flexural, infragravity mode (ice swell). The excitation of these two modes is not synchronous. The activation of the infragravity mode is linked to the arrival of energetic, dispersive wavetrains that can be readily seen on individual spectrograms, and that, as previous studies have shown, are likely to have their origins in distant storms. In contrast, the SH mode is excited at other time intervals and cannot be isolated on the recording of single stations due to the broadband and emergent nature of these wavetrains; given the horizontal polarization of these waves, the authors hypothesize that SH waves are caused by episodes of rapid SH deformation along major leads located outside the station network. The existence of horizontally-polarized waves propagating over long distances opens the possibility of monitoring ice deformation at the scale of the Arctic basin with unprecedented time resolution. (C) 2019 Acoustical Society of America.

Abstract: The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, have undergone acceleration and grounding line retreat over the past few decades that may yield an irreversible mass loss. Using a constellation of satellites, we detect the evolution of ice velocity, ice thinning, and grounding line retreat of Thwaites Glacier from 1992 to 2017. The results reveal a complex pattern of retreat and icemelt, with sectors retreating at 0.8 km/year and floating icemelting at 200m/year, while others retreat at 0.3 km/year with icemelting 10 times slower. We interpret the results in terms of buoyancy/slope-driven seawater intrusion along preferential channels at tidal frequencies leading to more efficient melt in newly formed cavities. Such complexities in ice-ocean interaction are not currently represented in coupled ice sheet/ocean models.

Abstract: Permafrost soils and arctic wetlands methane emissions represent an important challenge for modeling the future climate. Here we present a process-based model designed to correctly represent the main thermal, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes related to these emissions for general land surface modeling. We propose a new multilayer soil carbon and gas module within the Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) land-surface model (LSM). This module represents carbon pools, vertical carbon dynamics, and both oxic and anoxic organic matter decomposition. It also represents the soil gas processes for CH4, CO2, and O-2 through the soil column. We base CH4 production and oxydation on an O-2 control instead of the classical water table level strata approach used in state-of-the-art soil CH4 models. We propose a new parametrization of CH4 oxydation using recent field experiments and use an explicit O-2 limitation for soil carbon decomposition. Soil gas transport is computed explicitly, using a revisited formulation of plant-mediated transport, a new representation of gas bulk diffusivity in porous media closer to experimental observations, and an innovative advection term for ebullition. We evaluate this advanced model on three climatically distinct sites : two in Greenland (Nuuk and Zackenberg) and one in Siberia (Chokurdakh). The model realistically reproduces methane and carbon dioxide emissions from both permafrosted and nonpermafrosted sites. The evolution and vertical characteristics of the underground processes leading to these fluxes are consistent with current knowledge. Results also show that physics is the main driver of methane fluxes, and the main source of variability appears to be the water table depth.

Abstract: Surface ice velocity is a fundamental characteristic of glaciers and ice sheets that quantifies the transport of ice. Changes in ice dynamics have a major impact on ice sheet mass balance and its contribution to sea level rise. Prior comprehensive mappings employed speckle and feature tracking techniques, optimized for fast-flow areas, with precision of 2-5 m/year, hence limiting our ability to describe ice flow in the slow interior. We present a vector map of ice velocity using the interferometric phase from multiple satellite synthetic aperture radars resulting in 10 times higher precision in speed (20 cm/year) and direction (5 degrees) over 80% of Antarctica. Precision mapping over areas of slow motion (<1 m/year) improves from 20 to 93%, which helps better constrain drainage boundaries, improve mass balance assessment, evaluate regional atmospheric climate models, reconstruct ice thickness, and inform ice sheet numerical models. Plain Language Summary We present a new map of Antarctic ice velocity that is 10 times more precise than prior maps and reveals ice motion at a high precision over 80% of the continent versus 20% in the past. The ice motion vector map provides novel constrains on interior ice motion and its connection with the glaciers and ice stream that control the stability and mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Abstract: CloudSat has provided the first spaceborne snowfall observations in polar regions. Nevertheless, CloudSat retrievals may be affected by ground clutter even if the snowfall rate at the surface is estimated from the reflectivity measured at about 1200 m above land/ice surface. In this study, the impact of ground clutter contamination on CloudSat snowfall retrievals over the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is investigated. Our results suggest that ground clutter affects CloudSat snowfall observations over some areas, particularly over complex terrain such as mountain ranges and fjords. Over these areas, the snowfall rates deduced from CloudSat observations can be, therefore, significantly overestimated. This has implications when developing snowfall climatologies from CloudSat products.

Abstract: Snow accumulation is the main positive component of the mass balance in Antarctica. In contrast to the major efforts deployed to estimate its overall value on a continental scale – to assess the contribution of the ice sheet to sea level rise – knowledge about the accumulation process itself is relatively poor, although many complex phenomena occur between snowfall and the definitive settling of the snow particles on the snowpack. Here we exploit a dataset of near-daily surface elevation maps recorded over 3 years at Dome C using an automatic laser scanner sampling 40-100 m(2) in area. We find that the averaged accumulation is relatively regular over the 3 years at a rate of + 8.7 cm yr(-1). Despite this overall regularity, the surface changes very frequently (every 3 d on average) due to snow erosion and heterogeneous snow deposition that we call accumulation by “patches”. Most of these patches (60 %-85 %) are ephemeral but can survive a few weeks before being eroded. As a result, the surface is continuously rough (6-8 cm root-meansquare height) featuring meter-scale dunes aligned along the wind and larger, decameter-scale undulations. Additionally, we deduce the age of the snow present at a given time on the surface from elevation time series and find that snow age spans over more than a year. Some of the patches ultimately settle, leading to a heterogeneous internal structure which reflects the surface heterogeneity, with many snowfall events missing at a given point, whilst many others are overrepresented. These findings have important consequences for several research topics including surface mass balance, surface energy budget, photochemistry, snowpack evolution, and the interpretation of the signals archived in ice cores.

Abstract: The importance of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle has been recognized, especially for long-term changes. Yet, the complex interactions between climate and peatland hydrology, carbon storage, and area dynamics make it challenging to represent these systems in land surface models. This study describes how peatlands are included as an independent sub-grid hydrological soil unit (HSU) in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. The peatland soil column in this tile is characterized by multilayered vertical water and carbon transport and peat-specific hydrological properties. The cost-efficient version of TOPMODEL and the scheme of peatland initiation and development from the DYPTOP model are implemented and adjusted to simulate spatial and temporal dynamics of peatland. The model is tested across a range of northern peatland sites and for gridded simulations over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30 degrees N). Simulated northern peatland area (3.9 million km(2)), peat carbon stock (463 Pg C), and peat depth are generally consistent with observed estimates of peatland area (3.4-4.0 million km2), peat carbon (270-540 Pg C), and data compilations of peat core depths. Our results show that both net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) of northern peatlands increased over the past century in response to CO2 and climate change. NPP increased more rapidly than HR, and thus net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibited a positive trend, contributing a cumulative carbon storage of 11.13 PgC since 1901, most of it being realized after the 1950s.

Abstract: Polycrystalline ice has been extensively investigated during the last decades regarding its mechanical behaviour for quasi-static loadings. Conversely, only few studies can be found on its dynamic behaviour and scientists suffer from a lack of experimental observation to develop relevant modelling at high strain-rate ranges. Dynamic experiments have already been conducted in compression mode using Hopkinson bar set-up. Regarding tension, experimental observations and measurements are scarce. The literature gives only approximated strength values. The knowledge of the latter is essential to design structures that may experience ice impact. The present study aims at providing the first reproducible experimental data of the tensile strength of polycrystalline ice subjected to dynamic tensile loading. To do so, a spalling test technique has been used for the first time on ice to apply tensile loading at strain-rates from 41 s(-1) to 271 s(-1). The experimental results show that the tensile strength is sensitive to the applied strain-rate, evolving from 1.9 MPa to 16.3 MPa for the highest applied loading rate.

Abstract: Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Abstract: The atmosphere is an important route for transporting and disseminating microorganisms over short and long distances. Understanding how microorganisms are distributed in the atmosphere is critical due to their role in public health, meteorology and atmospheric chemistry. In order to determine the dominant processes that structure airborne microbial communities, we investigated the diversity and abundance of both bacteria and fungi from the PM10 particle size (particulate matter of 10 micrometers or less in diameter) as well as particulate matter chemistry and local meteorological characteristics over time at nine different meteorological stations around the world. The bacterial genera Bacillus and Sphingomonas as well as the fungal species Pseudotaeniolina globaosa and Cladophialophora proteae were the most abundant taxa of the dataset, although their relative abundances varied greatly based on sampling site. Bacterial and fungal concentration was the highest at the high-altitude and semi-arid plateau of Namco (China; 3.56 X 10(6) +/- 3.01 X 10(6) cells/m(3)) and at the high-altitude and vegetated mountain peak Storm-Peak (Colorado, USA; 8.78X 10(4) +/- 6.49 X 10(4) cells/m(3)), respectively. Surrounding ecosystems, especially within a 50 km perimeter of our sampling stations, were the main contributors to the composition of airborne microbial communities. Temporal stability in the composition of airborne microbial communities was mainly explained by the diversity and evenness of the surrounding landscapes and the wind direction variability over time. Airborne microbial communities appear to be the result of large inputs from nearby sources with possible low and diluted inputs from distant sources.

Abstract: Light-absorbing particles (LAPs) such as black carbon or mineral dust are some of the main drivers of snow radiative transfer. Small amounts of LAPs significantly increase snowpack absorption in the visible wavelengths where ice absorption is particularly weak, impacting the surface energy budget of snow-covered areas. However, linking measurements of LAP concentration in snow to their actual radiative impact is a challenging issue which is not fully resolved. In the present paper, we point out a new method based on spectral irradiance profile (SIP) measurements which makes it possible to identify the radiative impact of LAPs on visible light extinction in homogeneous layers of the snowpack. From this impact on light extinction it is possible to infer LAP concentrations present in each layer using radiative transfer theory. This study relies on a unique dataset composed of 26 spectral irradiance profile measurements in the wavelength range 350-950 nm with concomitant profile measurements of snow physical properties and LAP concentrations, collected in the Alps over two snow seasons in winter and spring conditions. For 55 homogeneous snow layers identified in our dataset, the concentrations retrieved from SIP measurements are compared to chemical measurements of LAP concentrations. A good correlation is observed for measured concentrations higher than 5 ng g(-1) (r(2) = 0.81) despite a clear positive bias. The potential causes of this bias are discussed, underlining a strong sensitivity of our method to LAP optical properties and to the relationship between snow microstructure and snow optical properties used in the theory. Additional uncertainties such as artefacts in the measurement technique for SIP and chemical contents along with LAP absorption efficiency may explain part of this bias. In addition, spectral information on LAP absorption can be retrieved from SIP measurements. We show that for layers containing a unique absorber, this absorber can be identified in some cases (e.g. mineral dust vs. black carbon). We also observe an enhancement of light absorption between 350 and 650 nm in the presence of liquid water in the snow-pack, which is discussed but not fully elucidated. A single SIP acquisition lasts approximately 1 min and is hence much faster than collecting a profile of chemical measurements. With the recent advances in modelling LAP-snow interactions, our method could become an attractive alternative to estimate vertical profiles of LAP concentrations in snow.

Abstract: We assess the ability of the regional circulation model MAR to represent the recent negative surface mass balance (SMB) observed over the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E) and evaluate the uncertainties in SMB projections until the end of the century. The MAR model forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis shows a good agreement with meteorological observations at Kerguelen, particularly after slight adjustment of the forcing fields (+ 10% humidity, + 0.8 degrees C, all year round) to improve precipitation occurrence and intensity. The modeled SMB and surface energy balance (SEB) are also successfully evaluated with observations, and spatial distributions are explained as being largely driven by the elevation gradient and by the strong west to east foehn effect occurring on the ice cap. We select five general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) by evaluating their ability to represent temperature and humidity in the southern mid-latitudes over 1980-1999 with respect to ERA-Interim and use them to force the MAR model. These simulations fail to replicate SMB observations even when outputs from the best CMIP5 model (ACCESS1-3) are used as forcing because all GCMs fail in accurately reproducing the circulation changes observed at Kerguelen since the mid-1970s. Global models chosen to represent extreme values of SMB drivers also fail in producing extreme values of SMB, suggesting that more rigorous modeling of present and future circulation changes with GCMs is still needed to accurately assess future changes of the cryosphere in this area.

Abstract: Permafrost warming and potential soil carbon (SOC) release after thawing may amplify climate change, yet model estimates of present-day and future permafrost extent vary widely, partly due to uncertainties in simulated soil temperature. Here, we derive thermal diffusivity, a key parameter in the soil thermal regime, from depth-specific measurements of monthly soil temperature at about 200 sites in the high latitude regions. We find that, among the tested soil properties including SOC, soil texture, bulk density, and soil moisture, SOC is the dominant factor controlling the variability of diffusivity among sites. Analysis of the CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the parameterization of thermal diffusivity drives the differences in simulated present-day permafrost extent among these models. The strong SOC-thermics coupling is crucial for projecting future permafrost dynamics, since the response of soil temperature and permafrost area to a rising air temperature would be impacted by potential changes in SOC.

Abstract: The last millennium is defined as a “stable” climatic period with anomalies such as the Little Ice Age (LIA:similar to 1450 AD to 1850 AD), a period marked by low temperatures and associated with a glacier advance. Also the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA:similar to 950 AD to 1250 AD), considered as a period at least as warm as nowadays and associated with glacier retreat in the northern hemisphere. However, several studies have shown that glacial advances have occurred during the MCA period in the Baffin Land and western Greenland, in contradiction with hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions. In this study we propose temperature conditions for the last millennium determined from a recent study on the glacial fluctuations of the Lyngmarksbrceen glacier and the application of an empirical positive degree-day model (PDD) constrained by the outputs of the regional climate MAR atmospheric model. This simulation was conducted on the Lyngmarksbrceen glacier, which shows an original succession of nested moraines dated from the last millennium. The results show that the most likely scenarios are based on air temperatures in the range of -1.3 degrees C to -1.6 degrees C lower during the MCA than at the end of the 20th century if we consider a variation of about +/- 10% in precipitation. Sensitivity tests are then made on different parameters of the glaciological model to better constrain the uncertainty of the temperature estimations.

Abstract: Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to Jakobshavn Isbrae, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law, and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 to 2018 by forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about 5.1 mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting. Plain Language Summary Projections of future sea level rise are important planning information for coastal communities and ecosystems. Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make the projections of the contributions of outlet glaciers and ice sheets challenging. Jakobshavn Isbrae in West Greenland is the world's fastest glacier, which retreated for more than 20 km and contributed alone more than 0.1 mm per year to sea level rise after its floating ice tongue broke up at the turn of this millennium. We use a novel technique to calibrate model simulations of Jakobshavn Isbrae using a record of observations in order to (a) understand the causes triggering its recent retreat and (b) produce weighted estimates of the glacier's future contribution to sea level rise. Our analysis shows that the glacier behavior is largely controlled by the oceanic thermal forcing and that its future evolution will strongly depend on the sustained intrusion of warm waters in its fjord. We project that the glacier will contribute an average of 5.1 mm to global sea level rise until 2100 under present-day climatic forcing.

Abstract: Understanding the slow densification process of polar firn into ice is essential in order to constrain the age difference between the ice matrix and entrapped gases. The progressive microstructure evolution of the firn column with depth leads to pore closure and gas entrapment. Air transport models in the firn usually include a closed porosity profile based on available data. Pycnometry or melting-refreezing techniques have been used to obtain the ratio of closed to total porosity and air content in closed pores, respectively. X-ray-computed tomography is complementary to these methods, as it enables one to obtain the full pore network in 3-D. This study takes advantage of this nondestructive technique to discuss the morphological evolution of pores on four different Antarctic sites. The computation of refined geometrical parameters for the very cold polar sites Dome C and Lock In (the two Antarctic plateau sites studied here) provides new information that could be used in further studies. The comparison of these two sites shows a more tortuous pore network at Lock In than at Dome C, which should result in older gas ages in deep firn at Lock In. A comprehensive estimation of the different errors related to X-ray tomography and to the sample variability has been performed. The procedure described here may be used as a guideline for further experimental characterization of firn samples. We show that the closed-to-total porosity ratio, which is classically used for the detection of pore closure, is strongly affected by the sample size, the image reconstruction, and spatial heterogeneities. In this work, we introduce an alternative parameter, the connectivity index, which is practically independent of sample size and image acquisition conditions, and that accurately predicts the close-off depth and density. Its strength also lies in its simple computation, without any assumption of the pore status (open or close). The close-off prediction is obtained for Dome C and Lock In, without any further numerical simulations on images (e.g., by permeability or diffusivity calculations).

Abstract: The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.

Abstract: We discuss remote terrestrial influences on boundary layer air over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and the mechanisms by which they arise, using atmospheric radon observations as a proxy. Our primary motivation was to enhance the scientific community's ability to understand and quantify the potential effects of pollution, nutrient or pollen transport from distant land masses to these remote, sparsely instrumented regions. Seasonal radon characteristics are discussed at 6 stations (Macquarie Island, King Sejong, Neumayer, Dumont d'Urville, Jang Bogo and Dome Concordia) using 1-4 years of continuous observations. Context is provided for differences observed between these sites by Southern Ocean radon transects between 45 and 67 degrees S made by the Research Vessel Investigator. Synoptic transport of continental air within the marine boundary layer (MBL) dominated radon seasonal cycles in the mid-Southern Ocean site (Macquarie Island). MBL synoptic transport, tropospheric injection, and Antarctic outflow all contributed to the seasonal cycle at the sub-Antarctic site (King Sejong). Tropospheric subsidence and injection events delivered terrestrially influenced air to the Southern Ocean MBL in the vicinity of the circumpolar trough (or “Polar Front”). Katabatic outflow events from Antarctica were observed to modify trace gas and aerosol characteristics of the MBL 100-200 km off the coast. Radon seasonal cycles at coastal Antarctic sites were dominated by a combination of local radon sources in summer and subsidence of terrestrially influenced tropospheric air, whereas those on the Antarctic Plateau were primarily controlled by tropospheric subsidence. Separate characterization of long-term marine and katabatic flow air masses at Dumont d'Urville revealed monthly mean differences in summer of up to 5 ppbv in ozone and 0.3 ng m(-3) in gaseous elemental mercury. These differences were largely attributed to chemical processes on the Antarctic Plateau. A comparison of our observations with some Antarctic radon simulations by global climate models over the past two decades indicated that: (i) some models overestimate synoptic transport to Antarctica in the MBL, (ii) the seasonality of the Antarctic ice sheet needs to be better represented in models, (iii) coastal Antarctic radon sources need to be taken into account, and (iv) the underestimation of radon in subsiding tropospheric air needs to be investigated.

Abstract: At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Rhine glacier in the Swiss Alps covered an area of about 16 000 km(2). As part of an integrative study about the safety of repositories for radioactive waste under ice age conditions in Switzerland, we modeled the Rhine glacier using a thermodynamically coupled three-dimensional, transient Stokes flow and heat transport model down to a horizontal resolution of about 500 m. The accumulation and ablation gradients that roughly reproduced the geomorphic reconstructions of glacial extent and ice thickness suggested extremely cold (T-July similar to 0 degrees C at the glacier terminus) and dry (similar to 10% to 20% of today's precipitation) climatic conditions. Forcing the numerical simulations with warmer and wetter conditions that better matched LGM climate proxy records yielded a glacier on average 500 to 700m thicker than geomorphic reconstructions. Mass balance gradients also controlled ice velocities, fluxes, and sliding speeds. These gradients, however, had only a small effect on basal conditions. All simulations indicated that basal ice reached the pressure melting point over much of the Rhine and Linth piedmont lobes, and also in the glacial valleys that fed these lobes. Only the outer margin of the lobes, bedrock highs beneath the lobes, and Alpine valleys at high elevations in the accumulation zone remained cold based. The Rhine glacier was thus polythermal. Sliding speed estimated with a linear sliding rule ranged from 20 to 100ma(-1) in the lobes and 50 to 250ma(-1) in Alpine valleys. Velocity ratios (sliding to surface speeds) were > 80% in lobes and similar to 60% in valleys. Basal shear stress was very low in the lobes (0.03-0.1MPa) and much higher in Alpine valleys (> 0.2MPa). In these valleys, viscous strain heating was a dominant source of heat, particularly when shear rates in the ice increased due to flow constrictions, confluences, or flow past large bedrock obstacles, contributing locally up to several watts per square meter but on average 0.03 to 0.2Wm(-2). Basal friction acted as a heat source at the bed of about 0.02Wm(-2), 4 to 6 times less than the geothermal heat flow which is locally high (up to 0.12Wm(-2)). In the lobes, despite low surface slopes and low basal shear stresses, sliding dictated main fluxes of ice, which closely followed bedrock topography: ice was channeled in between bedrock highs along troughs, some of which coincided with glacially eroded overdeepenings. These sliding conditions may have favored glacial erosion by abrasion and quarrying. Our results confirmed general earlier findings but provided more insights into the detailed flow and basal conditions of the Rhine glacier at the LGM. Our model results suggested that the trimline could have been buried by a significant thickness of cold ice. These findings have significant implications for interpreting trimlines in the Alps and for our understanding of ice-climate interactions.

Abstract: Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Abstract: Subglacial hydrology plays a key role in many glaciological processes, including ice dynamics via the modulation of basal sliding. Owing to the lack of an overarching theory, however, a variety of model approximations exist to represent the subglacial drainage system. The Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) provides a set of synthetic experiments to compare existing and future models. We present the results from 13 participating models with a focus on effective pressure and discharge. For many applications (e.g. steady states and annual variations, low input scenarios) a simple model, such as an inefficient-system-only model, a flowline or lumped model, or a porous-layer model provides results comparable to those of more complex models. However, when studying short term (e.g. diurnal) variations of the water pressure, the use of a two-dimensional model incorporating physical representations of both efficient and inefficient drainage systems yields results that are significantly different from those of simpler models and should be preferentially applied. The results also emphasise the role of water storage in the response of water pressure to transient recharge. Finally, we find that the localisation of moulins has a limited impact except in regions of sparse moulin density.

Abstract: In summer 2016, more than 50 Arctic Barren Ground caribous were found dead on Prince Charles Island (Nunavut, Canada), a species recently classified as threatened. Neither predator nor sign of diseases was observed and reported. The main hypothesis is that caribous were not able to access food due to a very dense snow surface, created by a strong storm system in spring. Using satellite microwave data, a significant increase in brightness temperature polarization ratio at 19 and 37GHz was observed in spring 2016 (60% higher than previous two winter seasons). Based on microwave radiative transfer simulations, such anomaly can be explained with a very dense snow surface. This is consistent with the succession of storms and strong winds highlighted in ERA-Interim over Prince Charles Island in spring 2016. Using several sources of data, this study shows that changes in snow conditions explain the caribou die-off due to restricted foraging. Plain Language Summary In this paper, it is discussed that the snow conditions could be caused by the massive die-off events of the caribou herd on Price Charles Island, Nunavut. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data, it is possible to find the reason of surface snow condition changes. This change creates an anomaly in signal, in particularly using different parameters derived from passive microwave data (brightness temperature) from SSM/I and SSMI/S sensors. Moreover, modeling of brightness temperature using radiative transfer model in passive microwaves domain, allowed to determine new thresholds for high density layer detection, may have an ecological consequence (food do not accessible for several ungulates).

Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.

Abstract: Over recent decades, Greenland ice sheet surface melt has shown an increase both in intensity and spatial extent. Part of this water probably reaches the bed and can enhance glacier speed, advecting a larger volume of ice into the ablation area. In the context of a warming climate, this mechanism could contribute to the future rate of thinning and retreat of land-terminating glaciers of Greenland. These changes in ice flow conditions will in turn influence surface crevassing and thus the ability of water to reach the bed at higher elevations. Here, using a coupled basal hydrology and prognostic ice flow model, the evolution of a Greenland-type glacier subject to increasing surface melt is studied over a few decades. For different scenarios of surface melt increase over the next decades, the evolution of crevassed areas and the ability of water to reach the bed is inferred. Our results indicate that the currently observed crevasse distribution is likely to extend further upstream which will allow water to reach the bed at higher elevations. This will lead to an increase in ice flux into the ablation area which, in turn, accelerates the mass loss of land-terminating glaciers.

Abstract: Compared to the other continents and lands, Antarctica suffers from a severe shortage of in situ observations of precipitation. APRES3 (Antarctic Precipitation, Remote Sensing from Surface and Space) is a program dedicated to improving the observation of Antarctic precipitation, both from the surface and from space, to assess climatologies and evaluate and ameliorate meteorological and climate models. A field measurement campaign was deployed at Dumont d'Urville station at the coast of Adelie Land in Antarctica, with an intensive observation period from November 2015 to February 2016 using X-band and K-band radars, a snow gauge, snowflake cameras and a disdrometer, followed by continuous radar monitoring through 2016 and beyond. Among other results, the observations show that a significant fraction of precipitation sublimates in a dry surface katabatic layer before it reaches and accumulates at the surface, a result derived from profiling radar measurements. While the bulk of the data analyses and scientific results are published in specialized journals, this paper provides a compact description of the dataset now archived in the PANGAEA data repository (https://www.pangaea.de, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.883562) and made open to the scientific community to further its exploitation for Antarctic meteorology and climate research purposes.

Abstract: Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Abstract: We present a novel instrument, the Sub-Ocean probe, allowing in situ and continuous measurements of dissolved methane in seawater. It relies on an optical feedback cavity enhanced absorption technique designed for trace gas measurements and coupled to a patent-pending sample extraction method. The considerable advantage of the instrument compared with existing ones lies in its fast response time of the order of 30 s, that makes this probe ideal for fast and continuous 3D-mapping of dissolved methane in water. It could work up to 40 MPa of external pressure, and it provides a large dynamic range, from subnmol of CH4 per liter of seawater to mmol L-1. In this work, we present laboratory calibration of the instrument, intercomparison with standard method and field results on methane detection. The good agreement with the headspace equilibration technique followed by gas-chromatography analysis supports the utility and accuracy of the instrument. A continuous 620-m depth vertical profile in the Mediterranean Sea was obtained within only 10 min, and it indicates background dissolved CH4 values between 1 and 2 nmol L-1 below the pycnocline, similar to previous observations conducted in different ocean settings. It also reveals a methane maximum at around 6 m of depth, that may reflect local production from bacterial transformation of dissolved organic matter.

Abstract: The high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere are a nexus for the interaction between land surface physical properties and their exchange of carbon and energy with the atmosphere. At these latitudes, two carbon pools of planetary significance-those of the permanently frozen soils (permafrost), and of the great expanse of boreal forest are vulnerable to destabilization in the face of currently observed climatic warming, the speed and intensity of which are expected to increase with time. Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out rel-evant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module. Outputs from ORCHIDEE-MICT, when forced by two climate input datasets, are extensively evaluated against (i) temperature gradients between the atmosphere and deep soils, (ii) the hydrological components comprising the water balance of the largest high-latitude basins, and (iii) CO2 flux and carbon stock observations. The model performance is good with respect to empirical data, despite a simulated excessive plant water stress and a positive land surface temperature bias. In addition, acute model sensitivity to the choice of input forcing data suggests that the calibration of model parameters is strongly forcing-dependent. Overall, we suggest that this new model design is at the forefront of current efforts to reliably estimate future perturbations to the high-latitude terrestrial environment.

Abstract: The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404 âÂ&#65533;Â&#65533;HarmoSnowâÂ&#65533;Â&#65533;, entitled, âÂ&#65533;Â&#65533;A European network for a harmonized monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather predictionâÂ&#65533;Â&#65533; (2014-2018) aims to coordinate efforts in Europe to harmonize approaches to validation, and methodologies of snow measurement practices, instrumentation, algorithms and data assimilation (DA) techniques. One of the key objectives of the action was âÂ&#65533;Â&#65533;Advance the application of snow DA in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models and show its benefit for weather and hydrological forecasting as well as other applications.âÂ&#65533;Â&#65533; This paper reviews approaches used for assimilation of snow measurements such as remotely sensed and in situ observations into hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models based on a COST HarmoSnow survey exploring the common practices on the use of snow observation data in different modeling environments. The aim is to assess the current situation and understand the diversity of usage of snow observations in DA, forcing, monitoring, validation, or verification within NWP, hydrology, snow and climate models. Based on the responses from the community to the questionnaire and on literature review the status and requirements for the future evolution of conventional snow observations from national networks and satellite products, for data assimilation and model validation are derived and suggestions are formulated towards standardized and improved usage of snow observation data in snow DA. Results of the conducted survey showed that there is a fit between the snow macro-physical variables required for snow DA and those provided by the measurement networks, instruments, and techniques. Data availability and resources to integrate the data in the model environment are identified as the current barriers and limitations for the use of new or upcoming snow data sources. Broadening resources to integrate enhanced snow data would promote the future plans to make use of them in all model environments.

Abstract: Documenting sub-Antarctic glacier variations during the local last glacial maximum is of major interest to better understand their sensitivity to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes in conjunction with Antarctic ice sheet changes. However, data are sparse because evidence of earlier glacier extents is for most sub-Antarctic islands located offshore making their observation complex. Here, we present 22 cosmogenic Cl-36 surface exposure ages obtained from five sites at Kerguelen to document the glacial history. The Cl-36 ages from roche moutonnee surfaces, erratics and boulders collected on moraines span from 41.9 +/- 4.4 ka to 14.3 +/- 1.1 ka. Ice began to retreat on the eastern part of the main island before 41.4 +/- 4.4 ka. Slow deglaciation occurred from similar to 41 to similar to 29 ka. There is no evidence of advances between 29 ka and the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period (similar to 14.5-12.9 ka) period. During the ACR, however, the Bontemps and possibly Belvedere moraines were formed by the advance of a Cook Ice Cap outlet glacier and a local glacier on the Presque Ile Jeanne d'Arc, respectively. This glacier evolution differs partly from that of glaciers in New Zealand and in Patagonia. These asynchronous glacier changes in the sub-Antarctic region are however in agreement with sea surface temperature changes recorded around Antarctica, which suggest differences in the climate evolution of the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic sectors of Antarctica. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Abstract: We report the discovery of a large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland. From airborne radar surveys, we identify a 31-kilometer-wide, circular bedrock depression beneath up to a kilometer of ice. This depression has an elevated rim that cross-cuts tributary subglacial channels and a subdued central uplift that appears to be actively eroding. From ground investigations of the deglaciated foreland, we identify overprinted structures within Precambrian bedrock along the ice margin that strike tangent to the subglacial rim. Glaciofluvial sediment from the largest river draining the crater contains shocked quartz and other impact-related grains. Geochemical analysis of this sediment indicates that the impactor was a fractionated iron asteroid, which must have been more than a kilometer wide to produce the identified crater. Radiostratigraphy of the ice in the crater shows that the Holocene ice is continuous and conformable, but all deeper and older ice appears to be debris rich or heavily disturbed. The age of this impact crater is presently unknown, but from our geological and geophysical evidence, we conclude that it is unlikely to predate the Pleistocene inception of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Abstract: Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO(2) bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.

Abstract: This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4. Meso-NH is an atmospheric non hydrostatic research model that is applied to a broad range of resolutions, from synoptic to turbulent scales, and is designed for studies of physics and chemistry. It is a limited-area model employing advanced numerical techniques, including monotonic advection schemes for scalar transport and fourth-order centered or odd-order WENO advection schemes for momentum. The model includes state-of-the-art physics parameter-ization schemes that are important to represent convectivescale phenomena and turbulent eddies, as well as flows at larger scales. In addition, Meso-NH has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling. Here, we present the main innovations to the dynamics and physics of the code since the pioneer paper of Lafore et al. (1998) and provide an overview of recent applications and couplings.

Abstract: Widely present in boreal regions, peatlands contain large carbon stocks because of their hydrologic properties and high water content, which makes primary productivity exceed decomposition rates. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing a hydrological representation of northern peatlands. These peatlands are represented as a new plant functional type (PFT) in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation. A prescribed map based on the inventory of Yu et al. (2010) defines peatlands as a fraction of a grid cell represented as a PFT comparable to C3 grasses, with adaptations to reproduce shallow roots and higher photosynthesis stress. The treatment of peatland hydrology differs from that of other vegetation types by the fact that runoff from other soil types is partially directed towards the peatlands (instead of directly to the river network). The evaluation of this implementation was carried out at different spatial and temporal scales, from site evaluation to larger scales such as the watershed scale and the scale of all northern latitudes. The simulated net ecosystem exchanges agree with observations from three FLUXNET sites. Water table positions were generally close to observations, with some exceptions in winter. Compared to other soils, the simulated peat soils have a reduced seasonal variability in water storage. The seasonal cycle of the simulated extent of inundated peatlands is compared to flooded area as estimated from satellite observations. The model is able to represent more than 89.5% of the flooded areas located in peatland areas, where the modelled extent of inundated peatlands reaches 0.83 x 10(6) km(2). However, the extent of peatlands in northern latitudes is too small to substantially impact the large-scale terrestrial water storage north of 45 degrees N. Therefore, the inclusion of peatlands has a weak impact on the simulated river discharge rates in boreal regions.

Abstract: Results from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and shallow ice cores carried out during a scientific traverse between Dome Concordia (DC) and Vostok stations are presented in order to infer both spatial and temporal characteristics of snow accumulation over the East Antarctic Plateau. Spatially continuous accumulation rates along the traverse are computed from the identification of three equally spaced radar reflections spanning about the last 600 years. Accurate dating of these internal reflection horizons (IRHs) is obtained from a depth-age relationship derived from volcanic horizons and bomb testing fallouts on a DC ice core and shows a very good consistency when tested against extra ice cores drilled along the radar profile. Accumulation rates are then inferred by accounting for density profiles down to each IRH. For the latter purpose, a careful error analysis showed that using a single and more accurate density profile along a DC core provided more reliable results than trying to include the potential spatial variability in density from extra (but less accurate) ice cores distributed along the profile. The most striking feature is an accumulation pattern that remains constant through time with persistent gradients such as a marked decrease from 26 mm w.e. yr(-1) at DC to 20 mm w.e. yr(-1) at the south-west end of the profile over the last 234 years on average (with a similar decrease from 25 to 19 mm w.e. yr(-1) over the last 592 years). As for the time dependency, despite an overall consistency with similar measurements carried out along the main East Antarctic divides, interpreting possible trends remains difficult. Indeed, error bars in our measurements are still too large to unambiguously infer an apparent time increase in accumulation rate. For the proposed absolute values, maximum margins of error are in the range 4 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 234 years) to 2 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 592 years), a decrease with depth mainly resulting from the time-averaging when computing accumulation rates.

Abstract: Ice properties inferred from multi-polarization measurements, such as birefringence and crystal orientation fabric (COF), can provide insight into ice strain, viscosity, and ice flow. In 2008, the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) used a ground-based VHF (very high frequency) radar to take multi-channel and multi-polarization measurements around the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) site. The system operated with 30MHz bandwidth at a center frequency of 150 MHz. This paper describes the radar system, antenna configurations, data collection, and processing and analysis of this data set. Within the framework derived from uniaxial ice crystal model, we found that ice birefringence dominates the power variation patterns of co-polarization and cross-polarization measurements in the area of 100 km2 around the ice core site. The phase shift between ordinary and extraordinary waves increases nonlinearly with depth. The ice optic axis lies in planes that are close to the vertical plane and perpendicular or parallel to the ice divide depending on depth. The ice optic axis has an average tilt angle of about 11 : 6 degrees vertically, and its plane may rotate either clockwise or counterclockwise by about 10 degrees across the 100 km(2) area, and at a specific location the plane may rotate slightly counterclockwise as depth increases. Comparisons between the radar observations, simulations, and ice core fabric data are in very good agreement. We calculated the effective colatitude at different depths by using azimuth and colatitude measurements of the c axis of ice crystals. We obtained an average effective c axis tilt angle of 9 : 6 degrees from the vertical axis, very comparable to the average optic axis tilt angle estimated from radar polarization measurements. The comparisons give us confidence in applying this polarimetric radio echo sounding technique to infer profiles of ice fabric in locations where there are no ice core measurements.

Abstract: High-latitude areas are very sensitive to global warming, which has significant impacts on soil temperatures and associated processes governing permafrost evolution. This study aims to improve first-layer soil temperature retrievals during winter. This key surface state variable is strongly affected by snow's geophysical properties and their associated uncertainties (e.g., thermal conductivity) in land surface climate models. We used infrared MODIS land-surface temperatures (LST) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) brightness temperatures (Tb) at 10.7 and 18.7 GHz to constrain the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), driven by meteorological reanalysis data and coupled with a simple radiative transfer model. The Tb polarization ratio (horizontal/vertical) at 10.7 GHz was selected to improve snowpack density, which is linked to the thermal conductivity representation in the model. Referencing meteorological station soil temperature measurements, we validated the approach at four different sites in the North American tundra over a period of up to 8 years. Results show that the proposed method improves simulations of the soil temperature under snow (Tg) by 64% when using remote sensing (RS) data to constrain the model, compared to model outputs without satellite data information. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated Tg under the snow ranges from 1.8 to 3.5 K when using RS data. Improved temporal monitoring of the soil thermal state, along with changes in snow properties, will improve our understanding of the various processes governing soil biological, hydrological, and permafrost evolution.

Abstract: The sensitivity of Antarctic sea-ice to increasing glacial freshwater release into the Southern Ocean is studied in a series of 31-year ocean/sea-ice/iceberg model simulations. Glaciological estimates of ice-shelf melting and iceberg calving are used to better constrain the spatial distribution and magnitude of freshwater forcing around Antarctica. Two scenarios of glacial freshwater forcing have been designed to account for a decadal perturbation in glacial freshwater release to the Southern Ocean. For the first time, this perturbation explicitly takes into consideration the spatial distribution of changes in the volume of Antarctic ice shelves, which is found to be a key component of changes in freshwater release. In addition, glacial freshwater-induced changes in sea ice are compared to typical changes induced by the decadal evolution of atmospheric states. Our results show that, in general, the increase in glacial freshwater release increases Antarctic sea ice extent. But the response is opposite in some regions like the coastal Amundsen Sea, implying that distinct physical mechanisms are involved in the response. We also show that changes in freshwater forcing may induce large changes in sea-ice thickness, explaining about one half of the total change due to the combination of atmospheric and freshwater changes. The regional contrasts in our results suggest a need for improving the representation of freshwater sources and their evolution in climate models.

Abstract: The search for ice as old as 1.5 Myr requires the identification of places that maximize our chances to retrieve old, well-resolved, undisturbed and datable ice. One of these locations is very likely southwest of the Dome C summit, where elevated bedrock makes the ice thin enough to limit basal melting. A 3-D ice flow simulation is used to calculate five selection criteria, which together delineate the areas with the most appropriate glaciological properties. These selected areas (a few square kilometers) lie on the flanks of a bedrock high, where a balance is found between risks of basal melting, stratigraphic disturbances and sufficient age resolution. Within these areas, several sites of potential 1.5 Myr old ice are proposed, situated on local bedrock summits or ridges. The trajectories of the ice particles towards these locations are short, and the ice flows over a smoothly undulating bedrock. These sites will help to choose where new high-resolution ground radar surveys should be conducted in upcoming field seasons.

Abstract: Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0 degrees C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance-elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Abstract: The Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) thermal emission and backscatter model was developed to determine uncertainties in forward modeling through intercomparison of different model ingredients. The model differs from established models by the high degree of flexibility in switching between different electromagnetic theories, representations of snow microstructure, and other modules involved in various calculation steps. SMRT v1.0 includes the dense media radiative transfer theory (DMRT), the improved Born approximation (IBA), and independent Rayleigh scatterers to compute the intrinsic electromagnetic properties of a snow layer. In the case of IBA, five different formulations of the autocorrelation function to describe the snow microstructure characteristics are available, including the sticky hard sphere model, for which close equivalence between the IBA and DMRT theories has been shown here. Validation is demonstrated against established theories and models. SMRT was used to identify that several former studies conducting simulations with in situ measured snow properties are now comparable and moreover appear to be quantitatively nearly equivalent. This study also proves that a third parameter is needed in addition to density and specific surface area to characterize the microstructure. The paper provides a comprehensive description of the mathematical basis of SMRT and its numerical implementation in Python. Modularity supports model extensions foreseen in future versions comprising other media (e.g., sea ice, frozen lakes), different scattering theories, rough surface models, or new microstructure models.

Abstract: Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5 degrees grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (V-cmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r(2) = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r(2) = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r(2) = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r(2) = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r(2) values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r(2) values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r(2) < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized V-cmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average V-cmax value.

Abstract: Detailed angular ground-based L-band brightness temperature (T-B) measurements over snow covered frozen soil in a prairie environment were used to parameterize and evaluate an electromagnetic model, the Wave Approach for LOw-frequency MIcrowave emission in Snow (WALOMIS), for seasonal snow. WALOMIS, initially developed for Antarctic applications, was extended with a soil interface model. A Gaussian noise on snow layer thickness was implemented to account for natural variability and thus improve the T-B simulations compared to observations. The model performance was compared with two radiative transfer models, the Dense Media Radiative Transfer-Multi Layer incoherent model (DMRT-ML) and a version of the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) adapted specifically for use at L-band in the original one-layer configuration (LS-MEMLS-1L). Angular radiometer measurements (30 degrees, 40 degrees, 50 degrees, and 60 degrees) were acquired at six snow pits. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) between simulated and measured TB at vertical and horizontal polarizations were similar for the three models, with overall RMSE between 7.2 and 10.5 K. However, WALOMIS and DMRT-ML were able to better reproduce the observed TB at higher incidence angles (50 degrees and 60 degrees) and at horizontal polarization. The similar results obtained between WALOMIS and DMRT-ML suggests that the interference phenomena are weak in the case of shallow seasonal snow despite the presence of visible layers with thicknesses smaller than the wavelength, and the radiative transfer model can thus be used to compute L-band brightness temperature.

Abstract: Distinct diurnal and seasonal variations of mercury (Hg) have been observed in near-surface air at Concordia Station on the East Antarctic Plateau, but the processes controlling these characteristics are not well understood. Here, we use a box model to interpret the Hg-0 (gaseous elemental mercury) measurements in thes year 2013. The model includes atmospheric Hg-0 oxidation (by OH, O-3, or bromine), surface snow Hg-II (oxidized mercury) reduction, and air-snow exchange, and is driven by meteorological fields from a regional climate model. The simulations suggest that a photochemically driven mercury diurnal cycle occurs at the air-snow interface in austral summer. The fast oxidation of Hg-0 in summer may be provided by a two-step bromine-initiated scheme, which is favored by low temperature and high nitrogen oxides at Concordia. The summertime diurnal variations of Hg-0 (peaking during daytime) may be confined within several tens of meters above the snow surface and affected by changing mixed layer depths. Snow re-emission of Hg-0 is mainly driven by photoreduction of snow HgII in summer. Intermittent warming events and a hypothesized reduction of Hg-II occurring in snow in the dark may be important processes controlling the mercury variations in the non-summer period, although their relative importance is uncertain. The Br-initiated oxidation of Hg-0 is expected to be slower at Summit Station in Greenland than at Concordia (due to their difference in temperature and levels of nitrogen oxides and ozone), which may contribute to the observed differences in the summertime diurnal variations of Hg-0 between these two polar inland stations.

Abstract: The Antarctic Plateau snowpack is an important environment for the mercury geochemical cycle. We have extensively characterized and compared the changes in surface snow and atmospheric mercury concentrations that occur at Dome C. Three summer sampling campaigns were conducted between 2013 and 2016. The three campaigns had different meteorological conditions that significantly affected mercury deposition processes and its abundance in surface snow. In the absence of snow deposition events, the surface mercury concentration remained stable with narrow oscillations, while an increase in precipitation results in a higher mercury variability. The Hg concentrations detected confirm that snowfall can act as a mercury atmospheric scavenger. A high temporal resolution sampling experiment showed that surface concentration changes are connected with the diurnal solar radiation cycle. Mercury in surface snow is highly dynamic and it could decrease by up to 90% within 4/6 h. A negative relationship between surface snow mercury and atmospheric concentrations has been detected suggesting a mutual dynamic exchange between these two environments. Mercury concentrations were also compared with the Br concentrations in surface and deeper snow, results suggest that Br could have an active role in Hg deposition, particularly when air masses are from coastal areas. This research presents new information on the presence of Hg in surface and deeper snow layers, improving our understanding of atmospheric Hg deposition to the snow surface and the possible role of re-emission on the atmospheric Hg concentration. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped'' relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.

Abstract: This study uses daily observations and modern reanalyses in order to evaluate reanalysis products over northern Eurasia regarding the spring snow albedo feedback (SAF) during the period from 2000 to 2013. We used the state-of-the-art reanalyses from ERA-Interim/Land and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) as well as an experimental set-up of ERA-Interim/Land with prescribed short grass as land cover to enhance the comparability with the station data while underlining the caveats of comparing in situ observations with gridded data. Snow depth statistics derived from daily station data are well reproduced in all three reanalyses. However day-to-day albedo variability is notably higher at the stations than for any reanalysis product. The ERAInterim grass set-up shows improved performance when representing albedo variability and generates comparable estimates for the snow albedo in spring. We find that modern reanalyses show a physically consistent representation of SAF, with realistic spatial patterns and area-averaged sensitivity estimates. However, station-based SAF values are significantly higher than in the reanalyses, which is mostly driven by the stronger contrast between snow and snow-free albedo. Switching to grass-only vegetation in ERA-Interim/Land increases the SAF values up to the level of station-based estimates. We found no significant trend in the examined 14year time series of SAF, but interannual changes of about 0.5% K-1 in both station-based and reanalysis estimates were derived. This interannual variability is primarily dominated by the variability in the snowmelt sensitivity, which is correctly captured in reanalysis products. Although modern reanalyses perform well for snow variables, efforts should be made to improve the representation of dynamic albedo changes.

Abstract: In recent decades, tidewater glaciers in Northwest Greenland contributed significantly to sea level rise but exhibited a complex spatial pattern of retreat. Here we use novel observations of bathymetry and water temperature from NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland mission to quantify the role of warm, salty Atlantic Water in controlling the evolution of 37 glaciers. Modeled ocean-induced undercutting of calving margins compared with ice advection and ice front retreat observed by satellites from 1985 to 2015 indicate that 35 glaciers retreated when cumulative anomalies in ocean-induced undercutting rose above the range of seasonal variability of calving-front positions, while two glaciers standing on shallow sills and colder water did not retreat. Deviations in the observed timing of retreat are explained by residual uncertainties in bathymetry, inefficient mixing of waters in shallow fjords, and the presence of small floating sections. Overall, warmer ocean temperature triggered the retreat, but calving processes dominate ablation (71%).

Abstract: The surface of windy Antarctic snowfields is subject to drifting snow, which leads to the formation of sastrugi. In turn, sastrugi contribute to the drag exerted by the snowsurface on the atmosphere and hence influence drifting snow. Although the surface drag over rough sastrugi fields has been estimated for individual locations in Antarctica, its variation over time and with respect to drifting snow has received little attention. Using year-round data from a meteorological mast, seasonal variations in the neutral drag coefficient at a height of 10m (C-DN10) in coastal Adelie Land are presented and discussed in light of the formation and behaviour of sastrugi based on observed aeolian erosion patterns. The measurements revealed high C-DN10 values (>= 2 x 10(-3)) and limited drifting snow (35% of the time) in summer (December-February) versus lower C-DN10 values (approximate to 1.5 x 10(-3)) associated with more frequent drifting snow (70% of the time) in winter (March-November). Without the seasonal distinction, there was no clear dependence of C-DN10 on friction velocity or wind direction, but observations revealed a general increase in C-DN10 with rising air temperature. Themain hypothesis defended here is that higher temperatures increase snowcohesion and the development of sastrugi just after snow deposition while inhibiting the sastrugi streamlining process by raising the erosion threshold. This increases the contribution of the sastrugi form drag to the total surface drag in summer when winds are lighter and more variable. The analysis also showed that, in the absence of erosion, single snowfall events can reduce C-DN10 to 1 x 10(-3) due to the burying of pre-existing microrelief under newly deposited snow. The results suggest that polar atmospheric models should account for spatial and temporal variations in snow surface roughness through a dynamic representation of the sastrugi form drag.

Abstract: Climate change projections still suffer from a limited representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Predicting the response of permafrost temperature to climate change requires accurate simulations of Arctic snow and soil properties. This study assesses the capacity of the coupled land surface and snow models ISBA-Crocus and ISBA-ES to simulate snow and soil properties at Bylot Island, a high Arctic site. Field measurements complemented with ERA-Interim reanalyses were used to drive the models and to evaluate simulation outputs. Snow height, density, temperature, thermal conductivity and thermal insulance are examined to determine the critical variables involved in the soil and snow thermal regime. Simulated soil properties are compared to measurements of thermal conductivity, temperature and water content. The simulated snow density profiles are unrealistic, which is most likely caused by the lack of representation in snow models of the upward water vapor fluxes generated by the strong temperature gradients within the snowpack. The resulting vertical profiles of thermal conductivity are inverted compared to observations, with high simulated values at the bottom of the snowpack. Still, ISBA-Crocus manages to successfully simulate the soil temperature in winter. Results are satisfactory in summer, but the temperature of the top soil could be better reproduced by adequately representing surface organic layers, i.e., mosses and litter, and in particular their water retention capacity. Transition periods (soil freezing and thawing) are the least well reproduced because the high basal snow thermal conductivity induces an excessively rapid heat transfer between the soil and the snow in simulations. Hence, global climate models should carefully consider Arctic snow thermal properties, and especially the thermal conductivity of the basal snow layer, to perform accurate predictions of the permafrost evolution under climate change.

Abstract: Basal slip accounts for a large part of the flow of ice streams draining ice from Antarctica and Greenland into the ocean. Therefore, an appropriate representation of basal slip in ice flow models is a prerequisite for accurate sea level rise projections. Various friction laws have been proposed to describe basal slip in models. Here, we compare the influence on grounding line (GL) dynamics of four friction laws: the traditional Weertman law and three effective pressure-dependent laws, namely the Schoof, Tsai and Budd laws. It turns out that, even when they are tuned to a common initial reference state, the Weertman, Budd and Schoof laws lead to thoroughly different steady-state positions, although the Schoof and Tsai laws lead to much the same result. In particular, under certain circumstances, it is possible to obtain a steady GL located on a reverse slope area using the Weertman law. Furthermore, the predicted transient evolution of the GL as well as the projected contributions to sea level rise over a 100-year time horizon vary significantly depending on the friction law. We conclude on the importance of choosing an appropriate law for reliable sea level rise projections and emphasise the need for a coupling between ice flow models and physically based subglacial hydrological models.

Abstract: The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12% of the change in the global mean temperature (Delta T) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17% of Delta T by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of Delta T, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric – the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years – that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Abstract: Snow fabric, defined as the distribution of the c-axis orientations of the ice crystals in snow, is poorly known. So far, only one study exits that measured snow fabric based on a statistically representative technique. This recent study has revealed the impact of temperature gradient metamorphism on the evolution of fabric in natural snow, based on cold laboratory experiments. On polar ice sheets, snow properties are currently investigated regarding their strong variability in time and space, notably because of their potential influence on firn processes and consequently on ice core analysis. Here, we present measurements of fabric and microstructure of snow from Point Barnola, East Antarctica (close to Dome C). We analyzed a snow profile from 0 to 3 m depth, where temperature gradients occur. The main contributions of the paper are (1) a detailed characterization of snow in the upper meters of the ice sheet, especially by providing data on snow fabric, and (2) the study of a fundamental snow process, never observed up to now in a natural snowpack, namely the role of temperature gradient metamorphism on the evolution of the snow fabric. Snow samples were scanned by micro-tomography to measure continuous profiles of microstructural properties (density, specific surface area and pore thickness). Fabric analysis was performed using an automatic ice texture analyzer on 77 representative thin sections cut out from the samples. Different types of snow fabric could be identified and persist at depth. Snow fabric is significantly correlated with snow microstructure, pointing to the simultaneous influence of temperature gradient metamorphism on both properties. We propose a mechanism based on preferential grain growth to explain the fabric evolution under temperature gradients. Our work opens the question of how such a layered profile of fabric and microstructure evolves at depth and further influences the physical and mechanical properties of snow and firn. More generally, it opens the way to further studies on the influence of the snow fabric in snow processes related to anisotropic properties of ice such as grain growth, mechanical response, electromagnetic behavior. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Abstract: Nucleation mechanisms occurring during dynamic recrystallization play a crucial role in the evolution of microstructures and textures during high temperature deformation. In polycrystalline ice, the strong viscoplastic anisotropy induces high strain heterogeneities between grains which control the recrystallization mechanisms. Here, we study the nucleation mechanisms occurring during creep tests performed on polycrystalline columnar ice at high temperature and stress (T=-5 degrees C; sigma = 0.5 MPa) by post-mortem analyses of deformation microstructures using cryogenic electron backscatter diffraction. The columnar geometry of the samples enables discrimination of the nuclei from the initial grains. Various nucleation mechanisms are deduced from the analysis of the nuclei relations with the dislocation sub-structures within grains and at grain boundaries. Tilt sub-grain boundaries and kink bands are the main structures responsible for development of polygonization and mosaic sub-structures. Nucleation by bulging at serrated grain boundaries is also an efficient nucleation mechanism near the grain boundaries where strain incompatibilities are high. Observation of nuclei with orientations not related to the 'parent' ones suggests the possibility of 'spontaneous' nucleation driven by the relaxation of the dislocation-related internal stress field. The complexity of the nucleation mechanisms observed here emphasizes the impact of stress and strain heterogeneities on dynamic recrystallization mechanisms. This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.

Abstract: Prediction of ice mass flow and associated dynamics is pivotal at a time of climate change. Ice flow is dominantly accommodated by the motion of crystal defects – the dislocations. In the specific case of ice, their observation is not always accessible by means of the classical tools such as X-ray diffraction or transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Part of the dislocation population, the geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) can nevertheless be constrained using crystal orientation measurements via electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) associated with appropriate analyses based on the Nye (1950) approach. The present study uses the Weighted Burgers Vectors, a reduced formulation of the Nye theory that enables the characterization of GNDs. Applied to ice, this method documents, for the first time, the presence of dislocations with non-basal [c] or < c + a > Burgers vectors. These [c] or (c + a) dislocations represent up to 35% of the GNDs observed in laboratory-deformed ice samples. Our findings offer a more complex and comprehensive picture of the key plasticity processes responsible for polycrystalline ice creep and provide better constraints on the constitutive mechanical laws implemented in ice sheet flow models used to predict the response of Earth ice masses to climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12 degrees ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.

Abstract: Snow spectral albedo in the visible/near-infrared range has been continuously measured during a winter season at Col de Porte alpine site (French Alps; 45.30(circle) N, 5.77(circle) E; 1325ma.s.l.). The evolution of such alpine snowpack is complex due to intensive precipitation, rapid melt events and Saharan dust deposition outbreaks. This study highlights that the resulting intricate variations of spectral albedo can be successfully explained by variations of the following snow surface variables: specific surface area (SSA) of snow, effective light-absorbing impurities content, presence of liquid water and slope. The methodology developed in this study disentangles the effect of these variables on snow spectral albedo. The presence of liquid water at the snow surface results in a spectral shift of the albedo from which melt events can be identified with an occurrence of false detection rate lower than 3.5 %. Snow SSA mostly impacts spectral albedo in the near-infrared range. Impurity deposition mostly impacts the albedo in the visible range but this impact is very dependent on snow SSA and surface slope. Our work thus demonstrates that the SSA estimation from spectral albedo is affected by large uncertainties for a tilted snow surface and medium to high impurity contents and that the estimation of impurity content is also affected by large uncertainties, especially for low values below 50 ng g(-1) black carbon equivalent. The proposed methodology opens routes for retrieval of SSA, impurity content, melt events and surface slope from spectral albedo. However, an exhaustive accuracy assessment of the snow black properties retrieval would require more independent in situ measurements and is beyond the scope of the present study. This time series of snow spectral albedo nevertheless already provides a new insight into our understanding of the evolution of snow surface properties.

Abstract: We review recent literature on atmospheric, surface ocean and sea-ice observations and modeling results in the Antarctic sector and relate the observed climatic trends with the potential changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the ice sheet since 1900. Estimates of regional scale SMB distribution and trends remain subject to large uncertainties. Approaches combining and comparing multiple satellite and model-based assessments of ice sheet mass balance aim at reducing these knowledge gaps. During the last decades, significant changes in atmospheric circulation occurred around Antarctica, due to the exceptional positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode and to the climate variability observed in the tropical Pacific at the end of the twentieth century. Even though climate over the East Antarctic Ice-Sheet remained quite stable, a warming and precipitation increase was observed over the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet and over the West Antarctic Peninsula (AP) during the twentieth century. However, the high regional climate variability overwhelms climate changes associated to human drivers of global temperature changes, as reflected by a slight recent decadal cooling trend over the AP. Climate models still fail to accurately reproduce the multi-decadal SMB trends at a regional scale, and progress has to be achieved in reproducing atmospheric circulation changes related to complex ocean/ice/atmosphere interactions. Complex processes are also still insufficiently considered, such as (1) specific polar atmospheric processes (clouds, drifting snow, and stable boundary layer physics), (2) surface firn physics involved in the surface drag variations, or in firn air depletion and albedo feedbacks. Finally, progress in reducing the uncertainties relative to projections of the future SMB of Antarctica will largely depend on climate model capability to correctly consider teleconnections with low and mid-latitudes, and on the ability to correct them for biases, taking into account the coupling between ocean, ice, and atmosphere in high southern latitudes.

Abstract: The basal topography is largely unknown beneath most glaciers and ice caps, and many attempts have been made to estimate a thickness field from other more accessible information at the surface. Here, we present a two-step reconstruction approach for ice thickness that solves mass conservation over single or several connected drainage basins. The approach is applied to a variety of test geometries with abundant thickness measurements including marine-and landterminating glaciers as well as a 2400 km(2) ice cap on Svalbard. The input requirements are kept to a minimum for the first step. In this step, a geometrically controlled, non-local flux solution is converted into thickness values relying on the shallow ice approximation (SIA). In a second step, the thickness field is updated along fast-flowing glacier trunks on the basis of velocity observations. Both steps account for available thickness measurements. Each thickness field is presented together with an error-estimate map based on a formal propagation of input uncertainties. These error estimates point out that the thickness field is least constrained near ice divides or in other stagnant areas. Withholding a share of the thickness measurements, error estimates tend to overestimate mismatch values in a median sense. We also have to accept an aggregate uncertainty of at least 25% in the reconstructed thickness field for glaciers with very sparse or no observations. For Vestfonna ice cap (VIC), a previous ice volume estimate based on the same measurement record as used here has to be corrected upward by 22 %. We also find that a 13% area fraction of the ice cap is in fact grounded below sea level. The former 5% estimate from a direct measurement interpolation exceeds an aggregate maximum range of 6-23% as inferred from the error estimates here.

Abstract: Computer models are necessary for understanding and predicting marine ice sheet behaviour. However, there is uncertainty over implementation of physical processes at the ice base, both for grounded and floating glacial ice. Here we implement several sliding relations in a marine ice sheet flow-line model accounting for all stress components and demonstrate that model resolution requirements are strongly dependent on both the choice of basal sliding relation and the spatial distribution of ice shelf basal melting. Sliding relations that reduce the magnitude of the step change in basal drag from grounded ice to floating ice (where basal drag is set to zero) show reduced dependence on resolution compared to a commonly used relation, in which basal drag is purely a power law function of basal ice velocity. Sliding relations in which basal drag goes smoothly to zero as the grounding line is approached from inland (due to a physically motivated incorporation of effective pressure at the bed) provide further reduction in resolution dependence. A similar issue is found with the imposition of basal melt under the floating part of the ice shelf: melt parameterisations that reduce the abruptness of change in basal melting from grounded ice (where basal melt is set to zero) to floating ice provide improved convergence with resolution compared to parameterisations in which high melt occurs adjacent to the grounding line. Thus physical processes, such as sub-glacial outflow (which could cause high melt near the grounding line), impact on capability to simulate marine ice sheets. If there exists an abrupt change across the grounding line in either basal drag or basal melting, then high resolution will be required to solve the problem. However, the plausible combination of a physical dependency of basal drag on effective pressure, and the possibility of low ice shelf basal melt rates next to the grounding line, may mean that some marine ice sheet systems can be reliably simulated at a coarser resolution than currently thought necessary.

Abstract: The first results of a campaign of intensive observation of precipitation in Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, are presented. Several instruments collected data from November 2015 to February 2016 or longer, including a polarimetric radar (MXPol), a Micro Rain Radar (MRR), a weighing gauge (Pluvio(2)), and a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC). These instruments collected the first ground-based measurements of precipitation in the region of Adelie Land (Terre Adelie), including precipitation microphysics. Microphysical observations during the austral summer 2015/2016 showed that, close to the ground level, aggregates are the dominant hydrometeor type, together with small ice particles (mostly originating from blowing snow), and that riming is a recurring process. Eleven percent of the measured particles were fully developed graupel, and aggregates had a mean riming degree of about 30 %. Spurious precipitation in the Pluvio2 measurements in windy conditions, leading to phantom accumulations, is observed and partly removed through synergistic use of MRR data. The yearly accumulated precipitation of snow (300 m above ground), obtained by means of a local conversion relation of MRR data, trained on the Pluvio2 measurement of the summer period, is estimated to be 815 mm of water equivalent, with a confidence interval ranging between 739.5 and 989 mm. Data obtained in previous research from satellite-borne radars, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide lower yearly totals: 655 mm for ERA-Interim and 679 mm for the climatological data over DDU. ERA-Interim overestimates the occurrence of low-intensity precipitation events especially in summer, but it compensates for them by underestimating the snowfall amounts carried by the most intense events. Overall, this paper provides insightful examples of the added values of precipitation monitoring in Antarctica with a synergistic use of in situ and remote sensing measurements.

Abstract: During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Abstract: Similar to many other regions in the world, glaciers in the southern sub-polar regions are currently retreating. In the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E), the mass balance of the Cook Ice Cap (CIC), the largest ice cap in this region, experienced dramatic shrinking between 1960 and 2013 with retreat rates among the highest in the world. This observation needs to be evaluated in a long-term context. However, data on the past glacier extents are sparse in the sub-Antarctic regions. To investigate the deglaciation pattern since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, we present the first 13 cosmogenic Cl-36 surface exposure ages from four sites in the Kerguelen Islands. The Cl-36 ages from erratic and moraine boulders span from 24.4 +/- 2.7 ka to 03 +/- 0.1 ka. We combined these ages with existing glacio-marine radiocarbon ages and bathymetric data to document the temporal and spatial changes of the island's glacial history. Ice began to retreat on the main island before 24.4 +/- 2.7 ka until around the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period (-14.5-12.9 ka), during which the Bontemps moraine was formed by the advance of a CIC outlet glacier. Deglaciation continued during the Holocene probably until 3 ka with evidence of minor advances during the last millennium. This chronology is in pace with major changes in delta O-18 in a recent West Antarctica ice core record, showing that Kerguelen Islands glaciers are particularly sensitive and relevant to document climate change in the southern polar regions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Polar ice cores are unique climate archives. Indeed, most of them have a continuous stratigraphy and present high temporal resolution of many climate variables in a single archive. While water isotopic records (delta D or delta O-18) in ice cores are often taken as references for past atmospheric temperature variations, their relationship to temperature is associated with a large uncertainty. Several reasons are invoked to explain the limitation of such an approach; in particular, post-deposition effects are important in East Antarctica because of the low accumulation rates. The strong influence of post-deposition processes highlights the need for surface polar research programs in addition to deep drilling programs. We present here new results on water isotopes from several recent surface programs, mostly over East Antarctica. Together with previously published data, the new data presented in this study have several implications for the climatic reconstructions based on ice core isotopic data: (1) The spatial relationship between surface mean temperature and mean snow isotopic composition over the first meters in depth can be explained quite straightforwardly using simple isotopic models tuned to d-excess vs. delta O-18 evolution in transects on the East Antarctic sector. The observed spatial slopes are significantly higher (similar to 0.7-0.8 parts per thousand. degrees C (1) for delta O-18 vs. temperature) than seasonal slopes inferred from precipitation data at Vostok and Dome C (0.35 to 0.46 parts per thousand. degrees C (1)). We explain these differences by changes in condensation versus surface temperature between summer and winter in the central East Antarctic plateau, where the inversion layer vanishes in summer. (2) Post-deposition effects linked to exchanges between the snow surface and the atmospheric water vapor lead to an evolution of delta O-18 in the surface snow, even in the absence of any precipitation event. This evolution preserves the positive correlation between the delta O-18 of snow and surface temperature, but is associated with a much slower delta O-18-vs-temperature slope than the slope observed in the seasonal precipitation. (3) Post-deposition effects clearly limit the archiving of high-resolution (seasonal) climatic variability in the polar snow, but we suggest that sites with an accumulation rate of the order of 40 kg.m (2).yr (1) may record a seasonal cycle at shallow depths. (C) 2017 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Abstract: The Maritime Continent is a region of intense rainfall characterised by a strong diurnal cycle. This study investigates the sensitivity of rainfall characteristics to resolution in a coupled regional climate model configuration, in particular focusing on processes that modulate the diurnal cycle. Model biases are resolution dependent. Increasing resolution from 3/4A degrees to 1/4A degrees improves the mean state sea surface temperature and precipitation biases. However, at higher resolutions (1/12A degrees) rainfall becomes too strong in most areas. Daily maximum rainfall is simulated about 2-4 h earlier than in observations over both the land and the ocean, with only small improvements over high topography at higher resolution. We develop a technique to examine cross-coastal processes associated with the rainfall diurnal cycle along all coastlines. This is used to investigate the sensitivity of the diurnal cycle to resolution and to the direction of the prevailing wind. During offshore prevailing winds, most land rainfall is confined near the coastline and associated with a shallow land-sea breeze circulation at all resolution (though rainfall partly develops directly inland at 1/12A degrees). During onshore prevailing winds, rainfall propagates from the coastline to the island interior at 1/4A degrees and 1/12A degrees, whereas it appears directly over the island interior at 3/4A degrees, and this is associated with a deep convective cell across the coastline for all resolutions. Oceanic rainfall propagates far offshore during offshore prevailing winds at all resolutions, whereas it tends to remain confined near the coastline under onshore prevailing winds condition, particularly at higher resolution.

Abstract: Recent precipitation observations provided by CloudSat are used to evaluate the ability of various meteorological analyses and reanalyses to reproduce Antarctic snowfall. The performance of the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA Interim), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55), the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application 2 (MERRA-2), as well as ECMWF operational analyses are compared over the 2007-2010 period. The mean snowfall rate over Antarctica north of 82 degrees S simulated by the reanalyses between 2007 and 2010 ranges from 165 to 225 mm per year, while CloudSat observations indicate a value of 172 mm per year. ERA Interim produces the closest match to the observed snowfall rate, but all the reanalyses reproduce well the seasonal and interannual variability of Antarctic snowfall reported in CloudSat observations. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Abstract: Ice sheets provide exceptional archives of past changes in polar climate, regional environment and global atmospheric composition. The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching similar to 800 000 years. Obtaining an older paleoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we use internal isochrones, identified from airborne radar coupled to ice-flow modelling to estimate the age of basal ice along transects in the Dome C area. Three glaciological properties are inferred from isochrones: surface accumulation rate, geothermal flux and the exponent of the Lliboutry velocity profile. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr, 1.5 million years) likely exists in two regions: one similar to 40 km south-west of Dome C along the ice divide to Vostok, close to a secondary dome that we name “Little Dome C” (LDC), and a second region named “North Patch” (NP) located 10-30 km north-east of Dome C, in a region where the geothermal flux is apparently relatively low. Our work demonstrates the value of combining radar observations with ice flow modelling to accurately represent the true nature of ice flow, and understand the formation of ice-sheet architecture, in the centre of large ice sheets.

Abstract: Numerical modeling of the Antarctic ice sheet has gone through a paradigm shift over the last decade. While initially models focussed on long-time diffusive response to surface mass balance changes, processes occurring at the marine boundary of the ice sheet are progressively incorporated in newly developed state-of-the-art ice-sheet models. These models now exhibit fast, short-term volume changes, in line with current observations of mass loss. Coupling with ocean models is currently on its way and applied to key areas of the Antarctic ice sheet. New model intercomparisons have been launched, focusing on ice/ocean interaction (MISMIP+, MISOMIP) or ice-sheet model initialization and multi-ensemble projections (ISMIP6). Nevertheless, the inclusion of new processes pertaining to ice-shelf calving, evolution of basal friction, and other processes, also increase uncertainties in the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

Abstract: A model based on the elastic theory of continuously distributed dislocations, accounting for the transport of geometrically necessary dislocations (GND) on slip systems is developed. It allows keeping the crystallographic nature of glide by allocating velocities specific to slip systems to GND. At grain boundaries, the dislocation transport equation is resolved between a specific system in a grain and a specific system in the adjacent grain. It is used to simulate a compression creep test followed by unloading of a multiple slip deforming multi-crystal of ice during which kink band formation, grain boundary migration and localized grain nucleation are observed. The model predictions are compared to 2D strain fields obtained by digital image correlation and show a good agreement. Besides, the kink band position corresponds very well with an area of strong lattice misorientation predicted by the model and is also bounded by opposite densities of edge dislocations, in agreement with kink banding theory and characterization. Furthermore, the grain boundary migration is observed to happen from predicted low dislocation density area towards high dislocation ones-also in agreement with the theory. Lastly, the triple junctions where nucleation is observed are also characterized by high GND density and especially strong gradient of elastic energy density. These different features show the relevance of using a continuum theory of polarized dislocations per slip system to study the onset of relaxation mechanisms like kink banding, grain boundary migration and grain nucleation and possibly to propose nucleation and migration criteria.

Abstract: This paper reviews four commonly-used microwave radiative transfer models that take different electromagnetic approaches to simulate snow brightness temperature (T-B): the Dense Media Radiative Transfer – Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML), the Dense Media Radiative Transfer – Quasi-Crystalline Approximation Mie scattering of Sticky spheres (DMRT-QMS), the Helsinki University of Technology n-Layers model (HUT-nlayers) and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). Using the same extensively measured physical snow pack properties, we compared the simulated T-B at 11, 19 and 37 GHz from these four models. The analysis focuses on the impact of using different types of measured snow microstructure metrics in the simulations. In addition to density, snow microstructure is defined for each snow layer by grain optical diameter (Do) and stickiness for DMRT-ML and DMRT-QMS, mean grain geometrical maximum extent (Dmax) for HUT n-layers and the exponential correlation length for MEMLS. These metrics were derived from either in-situ measurements of snow specific surface area (SSA) or macrophotos of grain sizes (D-max), assuming non-sticky spheres for the DMRT models. Simulated T-B sensitivity analysis using the same inputs shows relatively consistent T-B behavior as a function of Do and density variations for the vertical polarization (maximum deviation of 18 K and 27 K, respectively), while some divergences appear in simulated variations for the polarization ratio (PR). Comparisons with ground based radiometric measurements show that the simulations based on snow SSA measurements have to be scaled with a model-specific factor of Do in order to minimize the root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated T-B. Results using in-situ grain size measurements (SSA or D-max, depending on the model) give a mean T-B RMSE (19 and 37 GHz) of the order of 16-26 K, which is similar for all models when the snow microstructure metrics are scaled. However, the MEMLS model converges to better results when driven by the correlation length estimated from in-situ SSA measurements rather than D-max measurements. On a practical level, this paper shows that the SSA parameter, a snow property that is easy to retrieve in-situ, appears to be the most relevant parameter for characterizing snow microstructure, despite the need for a scaling factor. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abstract: The atmospheric deposition of mercury (Hg) occurs via several mechanisms, including dry and wet scavenging by precipitation events. In an effort to understand the atmospheric cycling and seasonal depositional characteristics of Hg, wet deposition samples were collected for approximately 5 years at 17 selected GMOS monitoring sites located in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project. Total mercury (THg) exhibited annual and seasonal patterns in Hg wet deposition samples. Interannual differences in total wet deposition are mostly linked with precipitation volume, with the greatest deposition flux occurring in the wettest years. This data set provides a new insight into baseline concentrations of THg concentrations in precipitation worldwide, particularly in regions such as the Southern Hemisphere and tropical areas where wet deposition as well as atmospheric Hg species were not investigated before, opening the way for future and additional simultaneous measurements across the GMOS network as well as new findings in future modeling studies.

Abstract: Light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) decrease snow albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed by the snowpack. Its most intuitive and direct impact is to accelerate snowmelt. Enhanced energy absorption in snow also modifies snow metamorphism, which can indirectly drive further variations of snow albedo in the near-infrared part of the solar spectrum because of the evolution of the near-surface snow microstructure. New capabilities have been implemented in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBACrocus (referred to as Crocus) to account for impurities' deposition and evolution within the snowpack and their direct and indirect impacts. Once deposited, the model computes impurities' mass evolution until snow melts out, accounting for scavenging by meltwater. Taking advantage of the recent inclusion of the spectral radiative transfer model TARTES (Two-stream Analytical Radiative TransfEr in Snow model) in Crocus, the model explicitly represents the radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow. The model was evaluated at the Col de Porte experimental site (French Alps) during the 2013-2014 snow season against in situ standard snow measurements and spectral albedo measurements. In situ meteorological measurements were used to drive the snowpack model, except for aerosol deposition fluxes. Black carbon (BC) and dust deposition fluxes used to drive the model were extracted from simulations of the atmospheric model ALADIN-Climate. The model simulates snowpack evolution reasonably, providing similar performances to our reference Crocus version in terms of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), near-surface specific surface area (SSA) and shortwave albedo. Since the reference empirical albedo scheme was calibrated at the Col de Porte, improvements were not expected to be significant in this study. We show that the deposition fluxes from the ALADIN-Climate model provide a reasonable estimate of the amount of light-absorbing impurities deposited on the snowpack except for extreme deposition events which are greatly underestimated. For this particular season, the simulated melt-out date advances by 6 to 9 days due to the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The model makes it possible to apportion the relative importance of direct and indirect impacts of light-absorbing impurities on energy absorption in snow. For the snow season considered, the direct impact in the visible part of the solar spectrum accounts for 85% of the total impact, while the indirect impact related to accelerated snow metamorphi

Abstract: This study aims to find the typical growth rate of the temperature inversion during the onset of the stable boundary layer around sunset. The sunset transition is a very challenging period for numerical weather prediction, since neither accepted theories for the convective boundary layer nor those for the stable boundary layer appear to be applicable. To gain more insight in this period, a systematic investigation of the temperature inversion growth rate is conducted. A statistical procedure is used to analyze almost 16 years of observations from the Cabauw observational tower, supported by observations from two additional sites (Dome C and Karlsruhe). The results show that, on average, the growth rate of the temperature inversion (normalized by the maximum inversion during the night) weakly declines with increasing wind speed. The observed growth rate is quantitatively consistent among the sites, and it appears insensitive to various other parameters. The results were also insensitive to the afternoon decay rate of the net radiation except when this decay rate was very weak. These observations are compared to numerical solutions of three models with increasing complexity: a bulk model, an idealized single-column model (SCM), and an operational-level SCM. It appears only the latter could reproduce qualitative features of the observations using a first-order closure. Moreover, replacing this closure with a prognostic TKE scheme substantially improved the quantitative performance. This suggests that idealized models assuming instantaneous equilibrium flux-profile relations may not aid in understanding this period, since history effects may qualitatively affect the dynamics.

Abstract: The parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is critical over the Antarctic Plateau for climate modelling since it affects the climatological temperature inversion and the negatively buoyant near-surface flow over the ice-sheet. This study challenges state-of-the-art parametrizations used in general circulation models to represent the clear-sky summertime diurnal cycle of the ABL at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. The Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique-Zoom model is run in a 1-D configuration on the fourth Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study case. Simulations are analyzed and compared to observations, giving insights into the sensitivity of one model that participates to the intercomparison exercise. Snow albedo and thermal inertia are calibrated leading to better surface temperatures. Using the so-called “thermal plume model” improves the momentum mixing in the diurnal ABL. In stable conditions, four turbulence schemes are tested. Best simulations are those in which the turbulence cuts off above 35 m in the middle of the night, highlighting the contribution of the longwave radiation in the ABL heat budget. However, the nocturnal surface layer is not stable enough to distinguish between surface fluxes computed with different stability functions. The absence of subsidence in the forcings and an underestimation of downward longwave radiation are identified to be likely responsible for a cold bias in the nocturnal ABL. Apart from model-specific improvements, the paper clarifies on which are the critical aspects to improve in general circulation models to correctly represent the summertime ABL over the Antarctic Plateau.

Abstract: Snow cover variability has significant effects on local and global climate evolution. By changing surface energy fluxes and hydrological conditions, changes in snow cover can alter atmospheric circulation and lead to remote climate effects. To document such multi-scale climate effects, atmospheric reanalysis and derived products offer the opportunity to analyze snow variability in great detail far back to the early 20th century. So far only little is know about their quality. Comparing snow depth in four long-term reanalysis datasets with Russian in situ snow depth data, we find a moderately high daily correlation (around 0.6-0.7), which is comparable to correlations for the recent era (1981-2010), and a good representation of sub-decadal variability. However, the representation of pre-1950 inter-decadal snow variability is questionable, since reanalysis products divert towards different base states. Limited availability of independent long-term snow data makes it difficult to assess the exact cause for this bifurcation in snow states, but initial investigations point towards representation of the atmosphere rather than differences in assimilated data or snow schemes. This study demonstrates the ability of long-term reanalysis to reproduce snow variability accordingly.

Abstract: Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 +/- 6gCm(-2) yr (-1)), most models produced higher NPP (309 +/- 12 g Cm-2 yr(-1)) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g Cm-2 yr(-1)), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP(max)). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25 degrees C (V-cmax_(25)), respectively. Themodels also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP(max) as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Abstract: We present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two “full” Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al., 2012) and Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MIS-MIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (<2% difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding lines are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along-and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.

Abstract: In polar regions, sastrugi are a direct manifestation of drifting snow and form the main surface roughness elements. In turn, sastrugi alter the generation of atmospheric turbulence and thus modify the wind field and the aeolian snow mass fluxes. Little attention has been paid to these feedback processes, mainly because of experimental difficulties. As a result, most polar atmospheric models currently ignore sastrugi over snow-covered regions. This paper aims at quantifying the potential influence of sastrugi on the local wind field and on snow erosion over a sastrugi-covered snowfield in coastal Ad,lie Land, East Antarctica. We focus on two erosion events during which sastrugi responses to shifts in wind direction have been interpreted from temporal variations in drag and aeolian snow mass flux measurements during austral winter 2013. Using this data set, it is shown that (i) neutral stability, 10aEuro-m drag coefficient (C-DN10) values are in the range of 1.3-1.5 x 10(-3) when the wind is well aligned with the sastrugi, (ii) as the wind shifts by only 20-30A degrees away from the streamlined direction, C-DN10 increases (by 30-120aEuro-%) and the aeolian snow mass flux decreases (by 30-80aEuro-%), thereby reflecting the growing contribution of the sastrugi form drag to the total surface drag and its inhibiting effect on snow erosion, (iii) the timescale of sastrugi aerodynamic adjustment can be as short as 3aEuro-h for friction velocities greater than 1aEuro-maEuro-s(-1) and during strong drifting snow conditions and (iv) knowing C-DN10 is not sufficient to estimate the snow erosion flux that results from drag partitioning at the surface because C-DN10 includes the contribution of the sastrugi form drag.

Abstract: We investigate the problem of balancing model complexity and input data requirements in snow hydrology. For this purpose, we analyze the performance of two models of different complexity in estimating variables of interest in snow hydrology applications. These are snow depth, bulk snow density, snow water equivalent and snowmelt run-off. We quantify the differences between data and model prediction using 18years of measurements from an experimental site in the French Alps (Col de Porte, 1325m AMSL). The models involved in this comparison are a one-layer temperature-index model (HyS) and a multilayer model (Crocus). Results show that the expected loss in performance in the one-layer temperature-index model with respect to the multilayer model is low when considering snow depth, snow water equivalent and bulk snow density. As for run-off, the comparison returns less clear indications for identification of a balance. In particular, differences between the models' prediction and data with an hourly resolution are higher when considering the Crocus model than the HyS model. However, Crocus is better at reproducing sub-daily cycles in this variable. In terms of daily run-off, the multilayer physically based model seems to be a better choice, while results in terms of cumulative run-off are comparable. The better reproduction of daily and sub-daily variability of run-off suggests that use of the multilayer model may be preferable for this purpose. Variation in performance is discussed as a function of both the calibration solution chosen and the time of year. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract: Snowpack is a multiphase (photo) chemical reactor that strongly influences the air composition in polar and snow-covered regions. Snowpack plays a special role in the nitrogen cycle, as it has been shown that nitrate undergoes numerous recycling stages (including photolysis) in the snow before being permanently buried in the ice. However, the current understanding of these physicochemical processes remains very poor. Several modelling studies have attempted to reproduce (photo) chemical reactions inside snow grains, but these have relied on strong assumptions to characterise snow reactive properties, which are not well defined. Air-snow exchange processes such as adsorption, solid-state diffusion, or co-condensation also affect snow chemical composition. Here, we present a physically based model of these processes for nitrate. Using as input a 1-year-long time series of atmospheric nitrate concentration measured at Dome C, Antarctica, our model reproduces with good agreement the nitrate measurements in the surface snow. By investigating the relative importance of the main exchange processes, this study shows that, on the one hand, the combination of bulk diffusion and co-condensation allows a good reproduction of the measurements (correlation coefficient r = 0.95), with a correct amplitude and timing of summer peak concentration of nitrate in snow. During winter, nitrate concentration in surface snow is mainly driven by thermodynamic equilibrium, whilst the peak observed in summer is explained by the kinetic process of co-condensation. On the other hand, the adsorption of nitric acid on the surface of the snow grains, constrained by an already existing parameterisation for the isotherm, fails to fit the observed variations. During winter and spring, the modelled concentration of adsorbed nitrate is respectively 2.5 and 8.3-fold higher than the measured one. A strong diurnal variation driven by the temperature cycle and a peak occurring in early spring are two other major features that do not match the measurements. This study clearly demonstrates that co-condensation is the most important process to explain nitrate incorporation in snow undergoing temperature gradient metamorphism. The parameterisation developed for this process can now be used as a foundation piece in snowpack models to predict the inter-relationship between snow physical evolution and snow nitrate chemistry.

Abstract: We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food andAgriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and South Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%-40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%-25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg Cyr(-1), whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of -0.17 Pg Cyr(-1). Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990-2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.

Abstract: Several airborne radar-sounding surveys are used to trace internal reflections around the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C and Vostok ice core sites. Thirteen reflections, spanning the last two glacial cycles, are traced within 200 km of Dome C, a promising region for million-year-old ice, using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics High-Capacity Radar Sounder. This provides a dated stratigraphy to 2318 m depth at Dome C. Reflection age uncertainties are calculated from the radar range precision and signal-to-noise ratio of the internal reflections. The radar stratigraphy matches well with the Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) radar stratigraphy obtained independently. We show that radar sounding enables the extension of ice core ages through the ice sheet with an additional radar-related age uncertainty of similar to 1/3-1/2 that of the ice cores. Reflections are extended along the Byrd-Totten Glacier divide, using University of Texas/Technical University of Denmark and MCoRDS surveys. However, core-to-core connection is impeded by pervasive aeolian terranes, and Lake Vostok's influence on reflection geometry. Poor radar connection of the two ice cores is attributed to these effects and suboptimal survey design in affected areas. We demonstrate that, while ice sheet internal radar reflections are generally isochronal and can be mapped over large distances, careful survey planning is necessary to extend ice core chronologies to distant regions of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

Abstract: This paper examines the ability of optical reflectance data assimilation to improve snow depth and snow water equivalent simulations from a chain of models with the SAFRAN meteorological model driving the detailed multilayer snowpack model Crocus now including a two-stream radiative transfer model for snow, TARTES. The direct use of reflectance data, allowed by TARTES, instead of higher level snow products, mitigates uncertainties due to commonly used retrieval algorithms.Data assimilation is performed with an ensemble-based method, the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle filter, to represent simulation uncertainties. In snowpack modeling, uncertainties of simulations are primarily assigned to meteorological forcings. Here, a method of stochastic perturbation based on an autoregressive model is implemented to explicitly simulate the consequences of these uncertainties on the snowpack estimates.Through twin experiments, the assimilation of synthetic spectral reflectances matching the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spectral bands is examined over five seasons at the Col du Lautaret, located in the French Alps. Overall, the assimilation of MODIS-like data reduces by 45aEuro-% the root mean square errors (RMSE) on snow depth and snow water equivalent. At this study site, the lack of MODIS data on cloudy days does not affect the assimilation performance significantly. The combined assimilation of MODIS-like reflectances and a few snow depth measurements throughout the 2010/2011 season further reduces RMSEs by roughly 70aEuro-%. This work suggests that the assimilation of optical reflectances has the potential to become an essential component of spatialized snowpack simulation and forecast systems. The assimilation of real MODIS data will be investigated in future works.

Abstract: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from 190 to 280 ppm between the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago and the pre-industrial era(1,2). This CO2 rise and its timing have been linked to changes in the Earth's orbit, ice sheet configuration and volume, and ocean carbon storage(2,3). The ice-core record of delta(CO2)-C-13 (refs 2,4) in the atmosphere can help to constrain the source of carbon, but previous modelling studies have failed to capture the evolution of delta(CO2)-C-13 over this period(5). Here we show that simulations of the last deglaciation that include a permafrost carbon component can reproduce the ice core records between 21,000 and 10,000 years ago. We suggest that thawing permafrost, due to increasing summer insolation in the northern hemisphere, is the main source of CO2 rise between 17,500 and 15,000 years ago, a period sometimes referred to as the Mystery Interval(6). Together with a fresh water release into the North Atlantic, much of the CO2 variability associated with the Bolling-Allerod/Younger Dryas period similar to 15,000 to similar to 12,000 years ago can also be explained. In simulations of future warming we find that the permafrost carbon feedback increases global mean temperature by 10-40% relative to simulations without this feedback, with the magnitude of the increase dependent on the evolution of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Abstract: With climate warming, shrubs have been observed to grow on Arctic tundra. Their presence is known to increase snow height and is expected to increase the thermal insulating effect of the snowpack. An important consequence would be the warming of the ground, which will accelerate permafrost thaw, providing an important positive feedback to warming. At Bylot Island (73 degrees N, 80 degrees W) in the Canadian high Arctic where bushes of willows (Salix richardsonii Hook) are growing, we have observed the snow stratigraphy and measured the vertical profiles of snow density, thermal conductivity and specific surface area (SSA) in over 20 sites of high Arctic tundra and in willow bushes 20 to 40 cm high. We find that shrubs increase snow height, but only up to their own height. In shrubs, snow density, thermal conductivity and SSA are all significantly lower than on herb tundra. In shrubs, depth hoar which has a low thermal conductivity was observed to grow up to shrub height, while on herb tundra, depth hoar only developed to 5 to 10 cm high. The thermal resistance of the snowpack was in general higher in shrubs than on herb tundra. More signs of melting were observed in shrubs, presumably because stems absorb radiation and provide hotspots that initiate melting. When melting was extensive, thermal conductivity was increased and thermal resistance was reduced, counteracting the observed effect of shrubs in the absence of melting. Simulations of the effect of shrubs on snow properties and on the ground thermal regime were made with the Crocus snow physics model and the ISBA (Interactions between Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere) land surface scheme, driven by in situ and reanalysis meteorological data. These simulations did not take into account the summer impact of shrubs. They predict that the ground at 5 cm depth at Bylot Island during the 2014-2015 winter would be up to 13 degrees C warmer in the presence of shrubs. Such warming may however be mitigated by summer effects.

Abstract: The atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979-2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports ( 89%-94% at 70 degrees N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface.

Abstract: The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice(1,2). Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow(3,4), which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as 'passive shelf ice' and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no 'passive' portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades' and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability(6,7). In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large 'passive' frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg(8) will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Abstract: In situ observations show that snow accumulation is similar to 10% larger 25 km north than south of the summit of Dome C on the east antarctic plateau. The mean wind direction is southerly. Although a slight slope-related diverging katabatic flow component is detectable, the area is an essentially flat (similar to 10m elevation change or less) homogeneous snow surface. The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts meteorological analyses data reproduce a significant accumulation gradient and suggest that 90% of the the mean accumulation results from the 25% largest precipitation events. During these events, air masses originate from coastal areas in the north rather than from inland in the south. Radiative cooling condensation occurs on the way across the dome and as the moisture reservoir is depleted less snow is dumped 25 km south than north, with little direct impact from the local (50-km scale) topography. Air masses are warmer on average, and warmer north than south, when originating from the coast. This marginally affects the mean temperature gradients. The moisture gradients are more affected because moisture is nonlinearly related to temperature: the mean atmospheric moisture is larger north than south. Significant meteorological and hydrological gradients over such relatively small distances (50 km) over locally flat region may be an issue when interpreting ice cores: although cores are drilled at the top of domes and ridges where the slopes and elevation gradients are minimal, they sample small surfaces in areas affected by significant meteorological and hydrological spatial gradients.

Abstract: In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbraeen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbraeen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in similar to 1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.

Abstract: Recent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events (nIOD and pIOD, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, El Nino and La Nina events one year later. These statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. This paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to assess IOD and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. In the observations and most CMIP5 models, it is shown that El Ninos tend to be followed by La Ninas but not the opposite, that pIODs co-occur more frequently with El Ninos than nIODs with La Ninas, that nIODs tend to be followed by El Ninos one year later less frequently than pIODs by La Ninas, and that including an IOD index in a linear prediction based on the Pacific warm water volume improves ENSO peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. The IOD-ENSO delayed relationship partly results from a combination of ENSO intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for El Ninos to be followed by La Ninas) and from the synchronous IOD-ENSO relationship. The results, however, reveal that this is not sufficient to explain the high prevalence of pIOD-Nina transitions in the observations and 75% of the CMIP5 models, and of nIOD-Nino transitions in 60% of CMIP5 models. This suggests that the tendency of IOD to lead ENSO by one year should be explained by a physical mechanism that, however, remains elusive in the CMIP5 models. The ability of many CMIP5 models to reproduce the delayed influence of the IOD on ENSO is nonetheless a strong incentive to explore extended-range dynamical forecasts of ENSO.

Abstract: The SMOS brightness temperature (T-B) collected on the East Antarctic Plateau revealed spatial signatures at L-band that have never before been observed when only higher-frequency passive microwave observations were available, and this has opened up a new field of research. Because of the much greater penetration depth, modeling the microwave ice sheet emission requires taldng into account not only snow conditions on the surface, but should also include glaciological information. Even if the penetration depth of the L-band is not well known due to the uncertainty on the imaginary part of the ice permittivity, it is likely to be of the order of several hundreds of meters, which means that the temperature of the ice over a depth of nearly 1000 m influences the emission. Over such a depth, the temperature is related to both the surface conditions and to the ice sheet thickness, which in turn depends on the bedrock topography and on other glaciological variables. The present paper aims to provide a thorough theoretical explanation of the observed T-B spatial variation close to the Brewster angle at vertical polarization, in order to limit the effect of surface and vertical density variability in the firn. In order to provide reliable inputs to the microwave emission models used for simulating T-B data, an in-depth analysis of the temperature profiles was performed by means of glaciological models. The comparison between simulated and observed data over three transects totalling 2000 km in East Antarctica pointed out that, whereas the emission models are capable of explaining the T-B spatial variations of several kelvins (0.7 and 2.9 K), they are unable to predict its absolute value correctly. This study also shows that the main limiting factor in simulating low-frequency microwave data is the uncertainty in the currently available imaginary part of the ice permittivity. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.

Abstract: A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Abstract: The air-sea interaction in the Gulf of Guinea and its role in setting precipitation at the Guinean coast is investigated in the present paper. This study is based on satellite observations and WRF simulations forced by different sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. It shows that the seasonal cold tongue setup in the Gulf of Guinea, along with its very active northern front, tends to strongly constrain the low level atmospheric dynamics between the equator and the Guinean coast. Underlying mechanisms including local SST effect on the marine boundary layer stability and hydrostatically-changed meridional pressure gradient through changes in SST gradient are quantified in WRF regarding observations and CFSR reanalyses. Theses mechanisms strongly impact moisture flux convergence near the coast, leading to the installation of the first rainy season of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. The current study details the mechanisms by which the Atlantic Equatorial cold tongue plays a major role in the pre-onset of the boreal WAM.

Abstract: Water is necessary for the origin and survival of life as we know it. In the search for life-friendly worlds, water-rich planets therefore are obvious candidates and have attracted increasing attention in recent years. The surface H2O layer on such planets (containing a liquid water ocean and possibly high-pressure ice below a specific depth) could potentially be hundreds of kilometres deep depending on the water content and the evolution of the proto-atmosphere. We study possible constraints for the habitability of deep water layers and introduce a new habitability classification relevant for water-rich planets (from Mars-size to super-Earth-size planets). A new ocean model has been developed that is coupled to a thermal evolution model of the mantle and core. Our interior structure model takes into account depth-dependent thermodynamic properties and the possible formation of high-pressure ice. We find that heat flowing out of the silicate mantle can melt an ice layer from below (in some cases episodically), depending mainly on the thickness of the ocean-ice shell, the mass of the planet, the surface temperature and the interior parameters (e.g. radioactive mantle heat sources). The high pressure at the bottom of deep water-ice layers could also impede volcanism at the water-mantle boundary for both stagnant lid and plate tectonics silicate shells. We conclude that water-rich planets with a deep ocean, a large planet mass, a high average density or a low surface temperature are likely less habitable than planets with an Earth-like ocean. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Soil temperature (T-s) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of T-s determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T-s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960-2000, to characterize the warming rate of T-s in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of T-s trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 +/- 0.003 to 0.031 +/- 0.005 degrees C yr(-1). Most models show smaller increase in T-s with increasing depth. Air temperature (T-a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of T-s trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61% of their differences in T-s trends, while trends of T a only explain 5% of the differences in T-s trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in T-s trends (0.021 +/- 0.008 degrees C yr(-1), mean +/- standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 +/- 0.001 degrees C yr(-1)), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of T-s at 1m depth across the models (R = -0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total nearsurface permafrost area (R = -0.30, P = -0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T-s at 1m is estimated to be of -2.80 +/- 0.67 million km(2) degrees C-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and T-s across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 +/- 14 x 10(3) and 75 +/- 14 x 10(3) km(2) yr(-1) from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9-18% degradation of the current permafrost area.

Abstract: Ice is a highly transparent material in the visible. According to the most widely used database (IA2008; Warren and Brandt, 2008), the ice absorption coefficient reaches values lower than 10(-3) m(-1) around 400 nm. These values were obtained from a vertical profile of spectral radiance measured in a single snow layer at Dome C in Antarctica. We reproduced this experiment using an optical fiber inserted in the snow to record 56 profiles from which 70 homogeneous layers were identified. Applying the same estimation method on every layer yields 70 ice absorption spectra. They present a significant variability but absorption coefficients are overall larger than IA2008 by 1 order of magnitude at 400-450 nm. We devised another estimation method based on Bayesian inference that treats all the profiles simultaneously. It reduces the statistical variability and confirms the higher absorption, around 2 x 10(-2) m(-1) near the minimum at 440 nm. We explore potential instrumental artifacts by developing a 3-D radiative transfer model able to explicitly account for the presence of the fiber in the snow. The simulation shows that the radiance profile is indeed perturbed by the fiber intrusion, but the error on the ice absorption estimate is not larger than a factor of 2. This is insufficient to explain the difference between our new estimate and IA2008. The same conclusion applies regarding the plausible contamination by black carbon or dust, concentrations reported in the literature are insufficient. Considering the large number of profiles acquired for this study and other estimates from the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA), we nevertheless estimate that ice absorption values around 10(-2) m(-1) at the minimum are more likely than under 10(-3) m(-1). A new estimate in the range 400-600 nm is provided for future modeling of snow, cloud, and sea-ice optical properties. Most importantly, we recommend that modeling studies take into account the large uncertainty of the ice absorption coefficient in the visible and that future estimations of the ice absorption coefficient should also thoroughly account for the impact of the measurement method.

Abstract: This study aims to better understand and quantify the uncertainties in microwave snow emission models using the Dense Media Radiative Theory Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML) with in situ measurements of snow properties. We use surface-based radiometric measurements at 10.67, 19 and 37aEuro-GHz in boreal forest and subarctic environments and a new in situ data set of measurements of snow properties (profiles of density, snow grain size and temperature, soil characterization and ice lens detection) acquired in the James Bay and Umiujaq regions of Northern Qu,bec, Canada. A snow excavation experiment – where snow was removed from the ground to measure the microwave emission of bare frozen ground – shows that small-scale spatial variability (less than 1aEuro-km) in the emission of frozen soil is small. Hence, in our case of boreal organic soil, variability in the emission of frozen soil has a small effect on snow-covered brightness temperature (T-B). Grain size and density measurement errors can explain the errors at 37aEuro-GHz, while the sensitivity of T-B at 19aEuro-GHz to snow increases during the winter because of the snow grain growth that leads to scattering. Furthermore, the inclusion of observed ice lenses in DMRT-ML leads to significant improvements in the simulations at horizontal polarization (H-pol) for the three frequencies (up to 20aEuro-K of root mean square error). However, representation of the spatial variability of T-B remains poor at 10.67 and 19aEuro-GHz at H-pol given the spatial variability of ice lens characteristics and the difficulty in simulating snowpack stratigraphy related to the snow crust. The results also show that, in our study with the given forest characteristics, forest emission reflected by the snow-covered surface can increase the T-B up to 40aEuro-K. The forest contribution varies with vegetation characteristics and a relationship between the downwelling contribution of vegetation and the proportion of pixels occupied by vegetation (trees) in fisheye pictures was found. We perform a comprehensive analysis of the components that contribute to the snow-covered microwave signal, which will help to develop DMRT-ML and to improve the required field measurements. The analysis shows that a better consideration of ice lenses and snow crusts is essential to improve T-B simulations in boreal forest and subarctic environments.

Abstract: Resistance at the ice-bed interface provides a strong control on the response of ice streams and outlet glaciers to external forcing, yet it is not observable by remote sensing. We used inverse methods constrained by satellite observations to infer the basal resistance to flow underneath three of the Greenland Ice Sheet's largest outlet glaciers. In regions of fast ice flow and high (>250kPa) driving stresses, ice is often assumed to flow over a strong bed. We found, however, that the beds of these three glaciers provide almost no resistance under the fast-flowing trunk. Instead, resistance to flow is provided by the lateral margins and stronger beds underlying slower-moving ice upstream. Additionally, we found isolated patches of high basal resistivity within the predominantly weak beds. Because these small-scale (<1 ice thickness) features may be artifacts of overfitting our solution to measurement errors, we tested their robustness to different degrees of regularization.

Abstract: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

Abstract: A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (Delta T; 3 to 14 degrees C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 degrees C degrees C-1), and in the relationship between Delta T and snow depth. The observed relationship between Delta T and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km(2)). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

Abstract: Thawing of permafrost in a warming climate is governed by a complex interplay of different processes of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. However, observations in many permafrost landscapes demonstrate that lateral and vertical movement of water can have a pronounced influence on the thaw trajectories, creating distinct landforms, such as thermokarst ponds and lakes, even in areas where permafrost is otherwise thermally stable. Novel process parameterizations are required to include such phenomena in future projections of permafrost thaw and subsequent climatic-triggered feedbacks. In this study, we present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes. We document the model physics and employed parameterizations for the basis module CryoGrid 3, and compare model results with in situ observations of surface energy balance, surface temperatures, and ground thermal regime from the Samoylov permafrost observatory in NE Siberia. The comparison suggests that CryoGrid 3 can not only model the evolution of the ground thermal regime in the last decade, but also consistently reproduce the chain of energy transfer processes from the atmosphere to the ground. In addition, we demonstrate a simple 1-D parameterization for thaw processes in permafrost areas rich in ground ice, which can phenomenologically reproduce both formation of thermokarst ponds and subsidence of the ground following thawing of ice-rich subsurface layers. Long-term simulation from 1901 to 2100 driven by reanalysis data and climate model output demonstrate that the hydrological regime can both accelerate and delay permafrost thawing. If meltwater from thawed ice-rich layers can drain, the ground subsides, as well as the formation of a talik, are delayed. If the meltwater pools at the surface, a pond is formed that enhances heat transfer in the ground and leads to the formation of a talik. The model results suggest that the trajectories of future permafrost thaw are strongly influenced by the cryostratigraphy, as determined by the late Quaternary history of a site.

Abstract: Substantial quantities of organic carbon (OC) are stored in the thick, ice-rich, and organic-rich sediments called yedoma deposits, distributed in eastern Siberia and Alaska today. Quantifying yedoma carbon stocks during the glacial period is important for understanding how much carbon could have been decomposed during the last deglaciation. Yet processes that yield the formation of thick frozen OC in yedoma deposits aremissing in global carbon cycle models. Here we incorporate sedimentation parameterizations into the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE-MICT) land surface model, which leads to reasonable results in OC vertical distribution and regional budgets, compared with site-specific observations and inventories for today's nondegraded yedoma region. Simulated total soil OC stock for the northern permafrost region during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 1536-1592 Pg C, of which 390-446 Pg C is within today's yedoma region. This result is an underestimation since we did not account for the potentially much larger yedoma area during the LGM than the present day.

Abstract: The optical turbulence above Dome C in winter is mainly concentrated in the first tens of metres above the ground. Properties of this so-called surface layer (SL) were investigated during the period 2007-2012 by a set of sonic anemometers placed on a 45 m high tower. We present the results of this long-term monitoring of the refractive index structure constant C-n(2) within the SL, and confirm its thickness of 35 m. We give statistics of the contribution of the SL to the seeing and coherence time. We also investigate properties of large-scale structure functions of the temperature and show evidence of a second inertial zone at kilometric spatial scales.