Séminaire IGE

Twenty-first century climate projection in the French Alps with MAR regional climate model

vendredi 18 mars 2022 - 13h30
Julien Beaumet - IGE
--- 
The MAR regional climate model (RCM) driven by climate reanalysis has been successfully applied for the modelling of temperature, precipitation and snow cover over the European Alps as well as for the study of their recent trends and their relation to the elevation. The MAR RCM has also been used to produce three future climate projections until the year 2100 for the European Alps at an horizontal resolution of 7 kilometers. The RCM has been driven by two carefully chosen global climate model (GCM) from the last CMIP6 exercise: MPI-ESM-HR (SSP2 and SSP5) and EC-EARTH3 (SSP2). While this reduced set of future projections hampers from properly quantifying expected change and their uncertainties at a given time for a given socio-economic scenario, we investigate the relationship between global warming and regional rates of temperature increase, precipitation changes, snow cover decrease... The results reveal a reduced alpine amplification of about +1.25°C per degree of global warming for the European Alps in the MAR RCM experiments with respect to the +1.35°C per degree of global warming found in driving GCMs projections. Higher (lower) warming rates are found in summer (winter). Large uncertainties are found even on the sign of annual precipitation changes as function of global warming. At the seasonal scale, the uncertainties are slightly reduced with increase in precipitation suggested in winter, especially for the southern side of the Alps. Finally, we focus on the occurrence of heatwaves in the Grenoble agglomeration and evidence large increase in the number of heatwave days, heatwave per year and maximum temperature for the mid-century.

Equipe organisatrice : Organisation labo

Salle de conférence MCP, IGE MCP, 38400 Saint Martin d'Hères

Informations de visio :

Register here : https://univ-grenoble-alpes-fr.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcpcu6oqT8iGdUt6ZF52jf0SqMGtop8QNcC