Publications

Abstract: We Present A Database Of Observational Constraints On Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Changes During The Last Glacial Cycle Intended To Consolidate The Observations That Represent Our Understanding Of Past Antarctic Changes And For State-Space Estimation And Paleo-Model Calibrations. The Database Is A Major Expansion Of The Initial Work Of Briggs And Tarasov (2013). It Includes New Data Types And Multi-Tier Data Quality Assessment. The Updated Constraint Database, Antice2 (Https://Theghub.Org/Resources/4884, Lecavalier Et Al., 2022), Consists Of Observations Of Past Grounded- And Floating-Ice-Sheet Extent, Past Ice Thickness, Past Relative Sea Level, Borehole Temperature Profiles, And Present-Day Bedrock Displacement Rates. In Addition To Paleo-Observations, The Present-Day Ice Sheet Geometry And Surface Ice Velocities Are Incorporated To Constrain The Present-Day Ice Sheet Configuration. The Method By Which The Data Are Curated Using Explicitly Defined Criteria Is Detailed. Moreover, The Observational Uncertainties Are Specified. The Methodology By Which The Constraint Database Can Be Applied To Evaluate A Given Ice Sheet Reconstruction Is Discussed. The Implementation Of The Antice2 Database For Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Calibrations Will Improve Antarctic Ice Sheet Predictions During Past Warm And Cold Periods And Yield More Robust Paleo-Model Spin Ups For Forecasting Future Ice Sheet Changes.

Abstract: Quantarctica (https://www.npolar.no/quantarctica) is a geospatial data package, analysis environment, and visualization platform for the Antarctic Continent, Southern Ocean (>40oS), and sub-Antarctic islands. Quantarctica works with the free, cross-platform Geographical Information System (GIS) software QGIS and can run without an Internet connection, making it a viable tool for fieldwork in remote areas. The data package includes basemaps, satellite imagery, terrain models, and scientific data in nine disciplines, including physical and biological sciences, environmental management, and social science. To provide a clear and responsive user experience, cartography and rendering settings are carefully prepared using colour sets that work well for typical data combinations and with consideration of users with common colour vision deficiencies. Metadata included in each dataset provides brief abstracts for non-specialists and references to the original data sources. Thus, Quantarctica provides an integrated environment to view and analyse multiple Antarctic datasets together conveniently and with a low entry barrier.

Abstract: Recent research shows increasing decadal ice mass losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and more generally from glaciers worldwide in the light of continued global warming. Here, in an update of our previous ISMASS paper (Hanna et al., 2013), we review recent observational estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, and their related uncertainties, first briefly considering relevant monitoring methods. Focusing on the response to climate change during 1992-2018, and especially the post-IPCC AR5 period, we discuss recent changes in the relative contributions of ice sheets and glaciers to sea-level change. We assess recent advances in understanding of the relative importance of surface mass balance and ice dynamics in overall ice-sheet mass change. We also consider recent improvements in ice-sheet modelling, highlighting data-model linkages and the use of updated observational datasets in ice-sheet models. Finally, by identifying key deficiencies in the observations and models that hamper current understanding and limit reliability of future ice-sheet projections, we make recommendations to the research community for reducing these knowledge gaps. Our synthesis aims to provide a critical and timely review of the current state of the science in advance of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report that is due in 2021.

Abstract: The temperature at the Antarctic Ice Sheet bed and the temperature gradient in subglacial rocks have been directly measured only a few times, although extensive thermodynamic modeling has been used to estimate the geothermal heat flux (GHF) under the ice sheet. During the last 5 decades, deep ice-core drilling projects at six sites – Byrd, WAIS Divide, Dome C, Kohnen, Dome F, and Vostok – have succeeded in reaching or nearly reaching the bed at inland locations in Antarctica. When temperature profiles in these boreholes and steady-state heat flow modeling are combined with estimates of vertical velocity, the heat flow at the ice-sheet base is translated to a geothermal heat flux of 57.9 +/- 6.4mW m(-2) at Dome C, 78.9 +/- 5.0mW m(-2) at Dome F, and 86.9 +/- 16.6mW m(-2) at Kohnen, all higher than the predicted values at these sites. This warm base under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could be caused by radiogenic heat effects or hydrothermal circulation not accounted for by the models. The GHF at the base of the ice sheet at Vostok has a negative value of -3.6 +/- 5.3mW m(-2), indicating that water from Lake Vostok is freezing onto the ice-sheet base. Correlation analyses between modeled and measured depth-age scales at the EAIS sites indicate that all of them can be adequately approximated by a steady-state model. Horizontal velocities and their variation over ice-age cycles are much greater for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet than for the interior EAIS sites; a steady-state model cannot precisely describe the temperature distribution here. Even if the correlation factors for the best fitting age-depth curve are only moderate for the West Antarctic sites, the GHF values estimated here of 88.4 +/- 7.6mW m(-2) at Byrd and 113.3 +/- 16.9mW m(-2) at WAIS Divide can be used as references before more precise estimates are made on the subject.

Abstract: In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere-GrIS interactions, such as the temperature-elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet-climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere-ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative one-way coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in fine-scale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB-elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB-elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5% lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3% lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7% (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6% compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes.

Abstract: Internal temperature is an essential parameter for understanding ice sheet dynamics. Glaciological models provide estimations of temperature profiles over Antarctica and few boreholes are also available, but, at present, no measurement exists at the scale of the whole continent. The analysis of passive L-band observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite shows that, thanks to the high penetration depth (i.e. up to 1500 m), it is possible to infer information on in depth glaciological properties of the ice sheet including temperature. In this study, the temperature profile is retrieved from SMOS observations using jointly glaciological and emission models. The developed methodology is valid in the inner part of Antarctica where the ice sheet is almost stable (i.e. its velocity is limited to 10 m yr(-1)). This analysis points out that in several cases, differences are observed between retrieved temperature profiles and those predicted by glaciological models. In particular, some geophysical parameters, namely the geothermal heat flux and the mean annual accumulation, need to be modified with respect to their prior values in order to simulate SMOS brightness temperatures. Results also clearly show that the reliability of the retrieved profile in depth decreases with increasing ice thickness due to the limited penetration of microwaves in the ice. The obtained results prove the capability of L band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave sensors for investigating the internal temperature of the ice-sheet.

Abstract: The search for ice as old as 1.5 Myr requires the identification of places that maximize our chances to retrieve old, well-resolved, undisturbed and datable ice. One of these locations is very likely southwest of the Dome C summit, where elevated bedrock makes the ice thin enough to limit basal melting. A 3-D ice flow simulation is used to calculate five selection criteria, which together delineate the areas with the most appropriate glaciological properties. These selected areas (a few square kilometers) lie on the flanks of a bedrock high, where a balance is found between risks of basal melting, stratigraphic disturbances and sufficient age resolution. Within these areas, several sites of potential 1.5 Myr old ice are proposed, situated on local bedrock summits or ridges. The trajectories of the ice particles towards these locations are short, and the ice flows over a smoothly undulating bedrock. These sites will help to choose where new high-resolution ground radar surveys should be conducted in upcoming field seasons.

Abstract: Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0 degrees C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance-elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Abstract: In this paper, we present the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision (version 2.0). Whilst GRISLI is applicable to any given ice sheet, we focus here on the Antarctic ice sheet because it highlights the importance of grounding line dynamics. Important improvements have been implemented in the model since its original version (Ritz et al., 2001). Notably, GRISLI now includes a basal hydrology model and an explicit flux computation at the grounding line based on the analytical formulations of Schoof (2007) or Tsai et al. (2015). We perform a full calibration of the model based on an ensemble of 300 simulations sampling mechanical parameter space using a Latin hypercube method. Performance of individual members is assessed relative to the deviation from present-day observed Antarctic ice thickness. To assess the ability of the model to simulate grounding line migration, we also present glacial-interglacial ice sheet changes throughout the last 400 kyr using the best ensemble members taking advantage of the capacity of the model to perform multi-millennial long-term integrations. To achieve this goal, we construct a simple climatic perturbation of present-day climate forcing fields based on two climate proxies: atmospheric and oceanic. The model is able to reproduce expected grounding line advances during glacial periods and subsequent retreats during terminations with reasonable glacial-interglacial ice volume changes.

Abstract: Ice sheets provide exceptional archives of past changes in polar climate, regional environment and global atmospheric composition. The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching similar to 800 000 years. Obtaining an older paleoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we use internal isochrones, identified from airborne radar coupled to ice-flow modelling to estimate the age of basal ice along transects in the Dome C area. Three glaciological properties are inferred from isochrones: surface accumulation rate, geothermal flux and the exponent of the Lliboutry velocity profile. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr, 1.5 million years) likely exists in two regions: one similar to 40 km south-west of Dome C along the ice divide to Vostok, close to a secondary dome that we name “Little Dome C” (LDC), and a second region named “North Patch” (NP) located 10-30 km north-east of Dome C, in a region where the geothermal flux is apparently relatively low. Our work demonstrates the value of combining radar observations with ice flow modelling to accurately represent the true nature of ice flow, and understand the formation of ice-sheet architecture, in the centre of large ice sheets.

Abstract: A high-resolution (1 km line spacing) aerogeophysical survey was conducted over a region near the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's Dome C that may hold a 1.5 Myr climate record. We combined new ice thickness data derived from an airborne coherent radar sounder with unpublished data that was in part unavailable for earlier compilations, and we were able to remove older data with high positional uncertainties. We generated a revised high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to investigate the potential for an old ice record in this region, and used laser altimetry to confirm a Cryosat-2 derived DEM for inferring the glaciological state of the candidate area. By measuring the specularity content of the bed, we were able to find an additional 50 subglacial lakes near the candidate site, and by Doppler focusing the radar data, we were able to map out the roughness of the bed at length scales of hundreds of meters. We find that the primary candidate region contains elevated rough topography interspersed with scattered subglacial lakes and some regions of smoother bed. Free subglacial water appears to be restricted from bed overlain by ice thicknesses of less than 3000 m. A site near the ice divide was selected for further investigation. The high resolution of this ice thickness data set also allows us to explore the nature of ice thickness uncertainties in the context of radar geometry and processing

Abstract: Abstract In ice-sheet models, slip conditions at the base between the ice and the bed are parameterized by a friction law. The most common relation has two poorly constrained parameters, C and m. The basal slipperiness coefficient, C, depends on local unobserved quantities and is routinely inferred using inverse methods. While model results have shown that transient responses to external forcing are highly sensitive to the stress exponent m, no consensus value has emerged, with values commonly used ranging from 1 to ∞ depending on the slip processes. By assimilation of Pine Island Glacier surface velocities from 1996 to 2010, we show that observed accelerations are best reproduced with m>=5. We conclude that basal motion, in much of the fast flowing region, is governed by plastic deformation of the underlying sediments. This implies that the glacier bed in this area cannot deliver resistive stresses higher than today, making the drainage basin potentially more sensitive to dynamical perturbations than predicted with models using standard values m = 1 or 3.

Abstract: Three-dimensional ice flow modelling requires a large number of computing resources and observation data, such that 2-D simulations are often preferable. However, when there is significant lateral divergence, this must be accounted for (2.5-D models), and a flow tube is considered (volume between two horizontal flowlines). In the absence of velocity observations, this flow tube can be derived assuming that the flowlines follow the steepest slope of the surface, under a few flow assumptions. This method typically consists of scanning a digital elevation model (DEM) with a moving window and computing the curvature at the centre of this window. The ability of the 2.5-D models to account properly for a 3-D state of strain and stress has not clearly been established, nor their sensitivity to the size of the scanning window and to the geometry of the ice surface, for example in the cases of sharp ridges. Here, we study the applicability of a 2.5-D ice flow model around a dome, typical of the East Antarctic plateau conditions. A twin experiment is carried out, comparing 3-D and 2.5-D computed velocities, on three dome geometries, for several scanning windows and thermal conditions. The chosen scanning window used to evaluate the ice surface curvature should be comparable to the typical radius of this curvature. For isothermal ice, the error made by the 2.5-D model is in the range 0-10aEuro-% for weakly diverging flows, but is 2 or 3 times higher for highly diverging flows and could lead to a non-physical ice surface at the dome. For non-isothermal ice, assuming a linear temperature profile, the presence of a sharp ridge makes the 2.5-D velocity field unrealistic. In such cases, the basal ice is warmer and more easily laterally strained than the upper one, the walls of the flow tube are not vertical, and the assumptions of the 2.5-D model are no longer valid.

Abstract: Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI)(1), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence(2-4) that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions(5-8), the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging(9): numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive(2,3,10) to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections(11) rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments9 (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.

Abstract: Estimating the contribution of Antarctica and Greenland to sea-level rise is a hot topic in glaciology. Good estimates rely on our ability to run a precisely calibrated ice sheet evolution model starting from a reliable initial state. Data assimilation aims to provide an answer to this problem by combining the model equations with observations. In this paper we aim to study a state-of-the-art ensemble Kalman filter (ETKF) to address this problem. This method is implemented and validated in the twin experiments framework for a shallow ice flowline model of ice dynamics. The results are very encouraging, as they show a good convergence of the ETKF (with localisation and inflation), even for small-sized ensembles.

Abstract: We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB-elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77 degrees N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: -0.22 to 1.33) kg m(-3) a(-1) for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m(-3) a(-1) for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (-0.03 to 0.23) kg m(-3) a(-1) in the north, and 0.07 (-0.07 to 0.59) kg m(-3) a(-1) in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Abstract: Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence of the crucial role that the ocean plays both for past and future behavior of the cryosphere suggests a climatic control of these ice surges. Here, we present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. The model generates a time series of iceberg discharge that closely agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka, indicating that oceanic circulation variations were responsible for the enigmatic ice purges of the last ice age.

Abstract: Since the original formulation of the positive-degree-day (PDD) method, different PDD calibrations have been proposed in the literature in response to the increasing number of observations. Although these formulations generally provide a satisfactory description of the present-day Greenland geometry, they have not all been tested for paleo ice sheets. Using the climate-ice sheet model CLIMBER-GRISLI coupled with different PDD models, we evaluate how the parameterisation of the ablation may affect the evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in the transient simulations of the last glacial cycle. Results from fully coupled simulations are compared to time-slice experiments carried out at different key periods of the last glacial period. We find large differences in the simulated ice sheets according to the chosen PDD model. These differences occur as soon as the onset of glaciation, therefore affecting the subsequent evolution of the ice system. To further investigate how the PDD method controls this evolution, special attention is given to the role of each PDD parameter. We show that glacial inception is critically dependent on the representation of the impact of the temperature variability from the daily to the inter-annual time scale, whose effect is modulated by the refreezing scheme. Finally, an additional set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to assess the relative importance of melt processes with respect to initial ice sheet configuration in the construction and the evolution of past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Our analysis reveals that the impacts of the initial ice sheet condition may range from quite negligible to explaining about half of the LGM ice volume depending on the representation of stochastic temperature variations which remain the main driver of the evolution of the ice system. The main findings of this paper underline the need for conducting studies with high resolution climate models coupled to detailed snow models to better constrain the temporal and spatial variations of the PDD parameters. The development of such approaches could improve the calibration of the PDD formulation which is still widely used in climate-ice sheet studies.

Abstract: The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Abstract: As pointed out by the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007), the contribution of the two major ice sheets, Antarctica and Greenland, to global sea level rise, is a subject of key importance for the scientific community. By the end of the next century, a 3-5 degrees C warming is expected in Greenland. Similar temperatures in this region were reached during the last interglacial (LIG) period, 130-115 ka BP, due to a change in orbital configuration rather than to an anthropogenic forcing. Ice core evidence suggests that the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) survived this warm period, but great uncertainties remain about the total Greenland ice reduction during the LIG. Here we perform long-term simulations of the GIS using an improved ice sheet model. Both the methodologies chosen to reconstruct palaeoclimate and to calibrate the model are strongly based on proxy data. We suggest a relatively low contribution to LIG sea level rise from Greenland melting, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5m of sea level equivalent, contrasting with previous studies. Our results suggest an important contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the LIG highstand.

Abstract: Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR). The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (im)balance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely perturbation of basal lubrication. From this result we are able to estimate an upper bound of 140 mm from dynamics only for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100.

Abstract: Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts. WIREs Clim Change 2012 doi: 10.1002/wcc.186 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Abstract: A coupled climate-ice-sheet model is used to investigate the response of climate at the millennial time scale under several global warming long-term scenarios, stabilized at different levels ranging from 2 to 7 times the pre-industrial CO2 level. The climate response is mainly analyzed in terms of changes in temperature, oceanic circulation, and ice-sheet behaviour. For the 4 x CO2 scenario, the climate response appears to be highly non-linear: abrupt transitions occur in the Southern Ocean deep water formation strength with a period of about 1200 yr. These millennial oscillations do not occur for both lower and larger CO2 levels. We show that these transitions are associated with internal oscillations of the Southern Ocean, triggered by the Antarctic freshwater budget. We first analyse the oscillatory mechanism. Secondly, through a series of 420 sensitivity experiments we also explore the range of temperature and freshwater flux for which such oscillations can be triggered. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

Abstract: A long term data acquisition effort of profile soil moisture is under way in southwestern France at 12 automated weather stations. In this paper, both those in situ measurements and a synthetic data set covering continental France are used to test a simple method to retrieve root zone soil moisture from a time series of surface soil moisture information. A recursive exponential filter using a time constant, T, is used to compute a soil water index. A unique T value equal to 6 days, estimated after comparing the retrieved soil water index with the observed values at a depth of 30 cm, presents a satisfactory correlation for all stations. The surface soil moisture observed at 5 cm is used to evaluate the normalized surface soil moisture estimates derived from coarse resolution (25 km) active microwave data of the ASCAT C-band scatterometer instrument (onboard METOP) for a period of 6 months (April-September) in 2007. For 10 stations, significant correlation levels are found for either the whole pooled data set or for a part of them function of the localisation. The best correlation between a soil water index derived from ASCAT and the in-situ observations is obtained for a T-value of 14 days.

Abstract: Results from the Heinrich Event INtercOmparison (HEINO) topic of the Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP) are presented. ISMIP HEINO was designed to explore internal large-scale ice-sheet instabilities in different contemporary ice-sheet models. These instabilities are of interest because they are a possible cause of Heinrich events. A simplified geometry experiment reproduces the main characteristics of the Laurentide ice sheet, including the sedimented region over Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The model experiments include a standard run plus seven variations. Nine dynamic/thermodynamic ice-sheet models were investigated; one of these models contains a combination of the shallow-shelf (SSA) and shallow-ice approximation (SIA), while the remaining eight models are of SIA type only. Seven models, including the SIA-SSA model, exhibit oscillatory surges with a period of similar to 1000 years for a broad range of parameters, while two models remain in a permanent state of streaming for most parameter settings. In a number of models, the oscillations disappear for high surface temperatures, strong snowfall and small sediment sliding parameters. In turn, low surface temperatures and low snowfall are favourable for the ice-surge cycles. We conclude that further improvement of ice-sheet models is crucial for adequate, robust simulations of cyclic large-scale instabilities.

Abstract: Polar ice is known to be one of the most anisotropic natural materials. For a given fabric the polycrystal viscous response is strongly dependent on the actual state of stress and strain rate. Within an ice sheet, grounded-ice parts and ice shelves have completely different stress regimes, so one should expect completely different impacts of ice anisotropy on the flow. The aim of this work is to quantify, through the concept of enhancement factors, the influence of ice anisotropy on the flow of grounded ice and ice shelves. For this purpose, a full-Stokes anisotropic marine ice-sheet flowline model is used to compare isotropic and anisotropic diagnostic velocity fields on a fixed geometry. From these full-Stokes results, we propose a definition of enhancement factors for grounded ice and ice shelves, coherent with the asymptotic models used for these regions. We then estimate realistic values for the enhancement factors induced by ice anisotropy for grounded ice and ice shelves.

Abstract: Recent geologically-based reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet show that during the peak Saalian (approximate to 140 kya) the ice sheet was larger over Eurasia than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at approximate to 21 kya. To address this problem we use the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to evaluate the impact on the Saalian ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) from proglacial lakes. dust deposition on snow, vegetation and sea surface temperatures (SST) since geological records suggest that these environmental parameters were different during the two glacial periods. Seven model simulations have been carried out. Dust deposition decreases the mean SMB by intensifying surface melt during summer while proglacial lakes cool the summer climate and reduce surface melt on the ice sheet. A simulation including both proglacial lakes and dust shows that the presence of the former parameter reduces the impact of the latter, in particular, during summer. A switch from needle-leaf to tundra vegetation affects the regional climate but not enough to significantly influence the SMB of the nearby ice margin. However, a steady-state vegetation in equilibrium with the climate should be computed to improve the boundary conditions for further evaluations of the vegetation impact on the ice sheet's SMB. Finally, changes of the SST broadly affect the regional climate with significant consequences for the SMB. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: A 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle. The ice-sheet model is forced by the results from six different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climate evolution over the period under study is reconstructed using two climate equilibrium simulations performed for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and for the present-day periods and an interpolation through time between these snapshots using a glacial index calibrated against the GRIP delta O-18 record. Since it is driven by the timing of the GRIP signal, the temporal evolution of the ice volume and the ice-covered area is approximately the same from one simulation to the other. However, both ice volume curves and spatial distributions of the ice sheets present some major differences from one AGCM forcing to the other. The origin of these differences, which are most visible in the maximum amplitude of the ice volume, is analyzed in terms of differences in climate forcing. This analysis allows for a partial evaluation of the ability of GCMs to simulate climates consistent with the reconstructions of past ice sheets. Although some models properly reproduce the advance or retreat of ice sheets in some specific areas, none of them is able to reproduce both North American or Eurasian ice complexes in full agreement with observed sea-level variations and geological data. These deviations can be attributed to shortcomings in the climate forcing and in the LGM ice-sheet reconstruction used as a boundary condition for GCM runs, but also to missing processes in the ice-sheet model itself.

Abstract: During the last glaciation, a marine ice sheet repeatedly appeared in Eurasia. The floating part of this ice sheet was essential to its rapid extension over the seas. During the earliest stage (90 kyr BP), large ice-dammed lakes formed south of the ice sheet. These lakes are believed to have cooled the climate at the margin of the ice. Using an ice sheet model, we investigated the role of ice shelves during the inception and the influence of ice-dammed lakes on the ice sheet evolution. Inception in Barents sea seems due to thickening of a large ice shelf. We observe a substantial impact of the lakes on the evolution of the ice sheets. Reduced summer ablation enhances ice extent and thickness, and the deglaciation is delayed by 2000 years.

Abstract: [1] On the basis of a detailed study of the ice microstructure of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) ice core at Dome Concordia, Antarctica, we analyze the effect of impurities (solubles, and insolubles, that is, dust particles) on the grain growth process in cold ice sheets. As a general trend, the average grain size increases with depth. This global increase, induced by the normal grain growth process, is punctuated by several sharp decreases that can be associated with glacial-interglacial climatic transitions. To explain the modifications of the microstructure with climatic changes, we discuss the role of soluble and insoluble impurities on the grain growth process, coupled with an analysis of the pinning of grain boundaries by microparticles. Our data indicate that high soluble impurity content does not necessarily imply a slowdown of grain growth kinetics, whereas the pinning of grain boundaries by dust explains all the observed modifications of the microstructure. We propose a numerical model of the evolution of the average grain size in deep ice cores that takes into account recrystallization processes such as normal grain growth and rotation recrystallization as well as the pinning effect induced by dust particles, bubbles, and clathrates on the grain boundaries. Applied to the first 2135 m of the Dome Concordia core, the model reproduces accurately the measured mean grain radius. This indicates a major role of dust in the modification of polar ice microstructure and shows that the average grain size is not a true paleothermometer, as it is correlated with climatic transitions through the dust content of the ice.

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess, through the understanding of deglaciation processes, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea-level rise during the last deglaciation. To achieve this goal, we use an Earth System model in which the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean, the vegetation and the northern and Antarctic ice sheets are represented. This new tool allows the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice volume, which starts to decrease at around 15 ka. At the end of deglaciation, the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet contributes to an ice-equivalent sea-level rise of 9.5 m in the standard experiment and 17.5 m in a more realistic sensitivity experiment accounting for a different bathymetry in the Weddell Sea which succeeds in producing both major ice shelves (Ross and Ronne-Filchner). In both experiments, the melting of all ice sheets contributes to 121.5 m and 129.5 m, respectively, which is very consistent with data. The new coupled model provides a timing and amplitude of the Antarctic deglaciation different from those previously obtained by prescribing the temperature record from the Vostok Antarctic ice core (78 degrees 27'S 106 degrees 52'E) as a uniform temperature forcing. Sensitivity experiments have also been performed to analyse the impact of the parameters at the origin of the deglaciation process: insolation changes, atmospheric CO2 variation, basal melting and sea-level rise. All those parameters have an influence on the timing of the deglaciation. The prescribed global sea level rise is shown to be a major forcing factor for the evolution of the Antarctic ice volume during the last deglaciation. We quantify the direct effect of the sea-level rise due to the northern hemisphere ice sheet melting on the grounding line retreat which, in turn, favours enhancement of grounded ice flow by lowering the buttressing effect of ice shelves. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Water isotope ratios in ice cores and marine sediments are a key indicator of past temperature and global ice volume. Quantitative interpretation of these ratios requires understanding of the storage capacity and exchanges among the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. We combine numerical models of ice dynamics and tracer transport to predict bulk ice properties by simulating the fine layering of ice sheets locally validated at ice core sites. The O-18/O-16 content of ice sheets is found to vary between the present and 20 kyr ago from -34 parts per thousand to -37 parts per thousand for Greenland, from -41 parts per thousand to -42.5 parts per thousand for West Antarctica, and always remained near -56.5 parts per thousand for East Antarctica. Their combined effect on sea-water O-18/O-16 is a 0.08-0.12 parts per thousand increase 20 kyr ago, a 1.11 parts per thousand decrease if ice sheets were to vanish. We confirm that ice volume changes in Antarctica and Greenland linearly affect ocean composition, though at different rates.

Abstract: The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago ( Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long – 28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Abstract: Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz(1). Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas(2) blocked the large northbound Russian rivers(3). Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents – Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz1. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.

Abstract: A thermomechanical ice sheet model ( ISM) is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations during deglaciation. The ISM is driven by surface temperature and precipitation fields from three different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). For each AGCM, the responses in temperature and precipitation over the ice sheets nearly compensate, such that ice sheet mass balance is not strongly sensitive to tropical SST boundary conditions. It was also found that there is significant variation in the response of the ISM to the different AGCM output fields.

Abstract: Modeling the densification of polar firn is essential to estimate variations of close-off characteristics (density, close-off depth, delta age) in relation with past climate parameters (temperature and accumulation rates). Furthermore, the air composition in the firn is modified by gravitational and thermal fractionation, and stable isotope measurements of permanent gases like nitrogen or argon can provide information on the amplitude of these fractionations. In this work, we propose a new model coupling firn densification and heat diffusion. In addition to the determination of the firn thickness and gas-ice age differences, the model allows a reconstruction of the time evolution of the temperature for different sites in Antarctica (Vostok) and Greenland (GISP2) and therefore the evolution of gravitational and thermal isotopic fractionations in firn. Under present-day conditions, the modeled profiles are in good agreement with the available temperature measurements in firn. For sites with low accumulation rates such as Vostok, the results show the existence of temperature gradients in the firn column even when no rapid climatic changes occur. The comparison of the modeled delta(15)N results to measurements allows to better constrain the delta(18)O-temperature relationship, used to infer the surface temperature history, and for GISP2, the model validates the long-term borehole-based temperature.

Abstract: The paper presents first results from the upper 54 m of a 723.91 in ice core drilled on Akademii Nauk ice cap, Severnaya Zemlya, Eurasian Arctic, in 1999-2001, supplemented by data from shallow ice cores. The glaciers peculiarity is the Infiltration and refreezing of meltwater, which changes the original isotopic and chemical signals. Therefore, stratigraphical observations in these ice cores are more difficult than in those from central Greenland or Antarctica. However, the 1963 maximum of artificial radioactivity from atmospheric nuclear tests is clearly detectable in the deep ice core, and the delta(18)O profile of a 12.82 m shallow core shows annual variations. Consequently, at least for the upper part of the main core, an almost seasonal time resolution of palaeoclimate record could be expected. The Chernobyl layer is detected by increased Cs-137 activity at depths of 11.81-12.51 in related to the AD 2000 surf ace. The resulting mean annual net mass balance is 53 +/- 2 g cm(-1). Data froin dielectric profiling oftlic rnain core show considerable peaks in conductivity; one of them is interpreted as a volcano event. According to the resulting chronology, this part of the core represents approximately the last 100 years.

Abstract: Using the chronological information available in the Vostok records, we apply an inverse method to assess the quality of the Vostok glaciological timescale. The inversion procedure provides not only an optimized glaciological timescale and its confidence interval but also a reliable estimate of the duration of successive events. Our results highlight a disagreement between orbitally tuned and glaciological timescales below similar to2700 m (i.e., similar to250 kyr B.P., thousands of years before present). This disagreement could be caused by some discontinuity in the spatial variation of accumulation upstream of Vostok. Moreover, the stratigraphic datings of central Greenland ice cores (GRIP and GISP2) appear older than our optimized timescale for the late glacial. This underlines an unconsistency between the physical assumptions used to construct the Vostok glaciological timescale and the stratigraphic datings. The inverse method allows the first assessment of the evolution of the phase between Vostok climatic records and insolation. This phase significantly varies with time which gives a measure of the nonlinear character of the climatic system and suggests that the climatic response to orbital forcing is of different nature for glacial and interglacial periods. We confirm that the last interglacial, as recorded in the Vostok deuterium record, was long (16.2 +/- 2 kyr, thousands of years). However, midtransition of termination 11 occurred at 133.4 +/- 2.5 kyr BP, which does not support the recent claim for an earlier deglaciation. Finally, our study suggests that temperature changes are correctly estimated when using the spatial present-day deuterium-temperature relationship to interpret the Vostok deuterium record.

Abstract: This paper discusses results from the second phase of the European Ice Sheet Modelling Initiative (EISMINT). It reports the intercomparison of ten operational ice-sheet models and uses a series of experiments to examine the implications of thermomechanical coupling for model behaviour. A schematic, circular ice sheet is used in the work which investigates both steady states and the response to stepped changes in climate. The major finding is that the radial symmetry implied in the experimental design can, under certain circumstances, break down with the formation of distinct, regularly spaced spokes of cold ice which extended from the interior of the ice sheet outward to the surrounding zone of basal melt. These features also manifest themselves in the thickness and velocity distributions predicted by the models. They appear to be a common feature to all of the models which took part in the intercomparison, and may stem from interactions between ice temperature, flow and surface form. The exact nature of these features varies between models, and their existence appears to be controlled by the overall thermal regime of the ice sheet. A second result is that there is considerable agreement between the models in their predictions of global-scale response to imposed climate change.

Abstract: The map of 3D curvatures of a porous medium characterizes most of its capillary properties. A model for directly computing curvatures from a three-dimensional image of the solid matrix of a porous medium is presented. A precise distance map of the object is built using the “chamfer” distance of discrete geometry. The set of local maxima of the distance map is used for quick location of the normal to each point P of the object's surface. The normal being known, principal radii of curvature are computed in 2D and lead to 3D curvature. This model was validated on geometric shapes of known curvature, then applied on a natural snow sample. The snow image was obtained from a serial cut (performed in cold laboratory) observed under specularly reflected light. Views of both fresh and sublimated sections were taken for each of the 64 section planes: this allowed easier distinction between snow and filling medium and made possible automatic contouring of section plane images. Curvature maps computed from pore and grain phases respectively were found to be in excellent agreement for each tested object shape, including the snow sample.

Abstract: We characterized temporal and spatial variables describing hydraulic and solute transport in a heterogeneous soil. Under field conditions, bulk density, water content and concentration of three applied tracers (conservative Br-, nitrate NO3-, and a pesticide BENTAZON) were measured after destructive sampling and compared to continuous measurements. A comparison of destructive sampling and continuous measurements were used to investigate the held. Soil volumetric samples were obtained from trenches on a grid of 1.2 x 1.1 x 0.1 m in a fallow area of approximately 1300 m(2) to generate two dimensional (2D) interpolated maps. Bulk density, water content, and solute concentration data sets were evaluated by geostatistical analysis in order to choose the best method to build interpolations. Semivariogram analyses for volumetric water content (theta), bulk density (rho(d)) and solute concentrations (NO3- and BENTAZON) showed no autocorrelation possessing only a pure nugget effect. 2D interpolated maps of these soil parameters were constructed using the Radial Basis Function method that allowed calculation of vertical water content and solute concentration profiles and the associated mean (mu) and variance (sigma) distributions. Vertical neutron and TDR water content profiles were successfully simulated with a discrete geometry approach using the 2D interpolated maps. Destructive sampling for water content and continuous measurements using neutron and TDR probes, revealed consistent results. Comparison of solute concentration from destructive sampling and ceramic solution samplers is less satisfactory at this site owing to both the heterogeneity and the inadequacy of ceramic solution samplers to sample the total soil concentration. Finally, preferential flow pathways can be visualized on the 2D interpolated maps of the concentration of Br-, BENTAZON, and NO3-. The observed distribution of tracers provides clear evidence of the influence of both soil hydraulic properties and geochemical heterogeneities which must be incorporated to predict water and solute fluxes. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the consistency between the ice sheets reconstruction at the LGM and the climate simulated by AGCM. In particular, to investigate whether the laurentian and the fennoscandian ice sheets have an equilibrated mass balance, we use two complementary approaches. First we analyze the changes of snow and water budgets over the ice sheets, only using the model results of LGM runs. Second, we use a thermomechanical ice sheet model [Ritz ei al., 1997] forced with the AGCM simulated climate, to perform long term runs at finer spatial resolution. Analyzing the results obtained with both approaches, we show that the ice sheet mass balance computed directly from AGCM results may be biaised. Moreover we show, using two versions of the LMD AGCM, that the ice sheet mass balance computed by the ISM is drastically sensitive to the summer surface temperatures simulated by the AGCM.

Abstract: Simulations of Rn-222 and other short-lived tracers are used to evaluate and intercompare the representations of convective and synoptic processes in 20 global atmospheric transport models. Results show that most established three-dimensional models simulate vertical mixing in the troposphere to within the constraints offered by the observed mean Rn-222 concentrations and that subgrid parameterization of convection is essential for this purpose. However, none of the models captures the observed variability of Rn-222 concentrations in the upper troposphere, and none reproduces the high Rn-222 concentrations measured at 200 hPa over Hawaii. The established three-dimensional models reproduce the frequency and magnitude of high- Rn-222 episodes observed at Crozet Island in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating that they can resolve the synoptic-scale transport of continental plumes with no significant numerical diffusion. Large differences between models are found in the rates of meridional transport in the upper troposphere (interhemispheric exchange, exchange between tropics and high latitudes). The four two-dimensional models which participated in the intercomparison tend to underestimate the rate of vertical transport from the lower to the upper troposphere but show concentrations of Rn-222 in the lower troposphere that are comparable to the zonal mean values in the three-dimensional models.

Abstract: We present here measurements of the air content of the ice, V, performed along the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) ice core. The main features of the longterm trends are (1) a decrease of 13% between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the earliest part of the Holocene, and (2) an increase of 8% during the Holocene. The results are discussed in terms of changes in atmospheric pressure, surface elevation and porosity at close-off. The V record contains a significant signal of past changes of surface elevation in qualitative agreement with ice sheet modeling simulations. It suggests a thickening of central Greenland during the transition from the LGM to the early Holocene, and a significant thinning through the Holocene period. It also stresses the large influence on past V variations of changes in ice porosity, which are not explained by the present-day spatial relationship with temperature and may reflect changes in other surface climatic parameters (like precipitation seasonality or wind stress). The potential role of temporal variations of atmospheric pressure patterns is also evaluated. Air content results in the GRIP ice older than 110 ka indicate values approximately in the same range as those observed during the last 40,000 years, with generally higher air content corresponding to isotopically warmer ice.

Abstract: A new ice core drilled at the Russian station of Vostok in Antarctica reached 2755 m depth in September 1993, At this depth, the glaciological time scale provides an age of 260 ky BP (+/-25). We refine this estimate using records of dust and deuterium in the ice and of delta(18)O of O-2 in the entrapped air. delta(18)O of O-2 is highly correlated with insolation over the last two climatic cycles if one assumes that the EGT chronology overestimates the increase of age with depth by 12% for ages older than 112 ky BP. This modified age-depth scale gives an age of 244 ky BP at 2755 m depth and agrees well with the age-depth scale of Walbroeck et al. (in press) derived by orbital tuning of the Vostok delta D record. We discuss the temperature interpretation of this latter record accounting for the influence of the origin of the ice and using information derived from deuterium-excess data. We conclude that the warmest period of stage 7 was likely as warm as today in Antarctica. A remarkable feature of the Vostok record is the high level of similarity of proxy temperature records for the last two climatic cycles (stages 6 and 7 versus stages 1-5). This similarity has no equivalent in other paleorecords.

Abstract: The ice-core record of local temperature, dust accumulation and air composition at Vostok station, Antarctica, now extends back to the penultimate glacial period (approximately 140-200 kyr ago) and the end of the preceding interglacial. This yields a new glaciological timescale for the whole record, which is consistent with ocean records. Temperatures at Vostok appear to have been more uniformly cold in the penultimate glacial period than in the most recent one. Concentrations of CO2 and CH4 Correlate well with temperature throughout the record.