Home > Seminars > Séminaires 2017 > Understanding, modelling and forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions









Search



OSUG - Terre Univers Environnement

Understanding, modelling and forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions

Séminaire de M. Ménégoz, le Jeudi 7 Décembre 2017 à 14h, en salle Lliboutry, Bât. Glaciologie

29 November 2017, by Fabien Gillet-Chaulet

Title: "Understanding, modelling and forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions".

The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the southern Atlantic. Simultaneously, Eastern tropical Pacific temperatures increased due to prevailing El Niño conditions. Besides, positive NAO conditions were observed during two winters after the El Chichón and the Pinatubo eruptions. Numerous investigations has been undertaken recently to determine if these dynamical signals were induced or not by the volcanic forcing. In this presentation, millennium observations and simulations are used to highlight the volcanic imprint on the climate system. Then, potential NAO signals related to volcanic eruptions are investigated using large ensemble of experiments of the CNRM-CM5 model. Finally, the possibility to predict the climate response to volcanic eruptions is investigated with retrospective forecasts of the EC-Earth climate model.

By M. Ménégoz (C. Cassou, D. Swingedouw, R. Bilbao, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-Reyes)

Also in this section :