Biodiversity and Climate COPs : turning promises into action

Author of a publication on nature conservation targets, Ignacio Palomo, researcher IRD at the institut des géosciences de l’environnement (IGE-OSUG, CNRS/IRD/UGA/INRAE/GrenobleINP-UGA) analyses the expectations and challenges of the Biodiversity and Climate COPs.

« As you probably saw in the news, at the end of 2024 world leaders met in Cali, Colombia for the COP16 on biodiversity [1] and in Baku, Azerbaijan for the COP29 on the climate. [2]. For the uninitiated, COP stands for Conference of Parties, an umbrella term for the annual summit meetings held between all the countries that have endorsed the United Nations Convention. During these meetings, decisions are taken on matters deemed useful in meeting the targets of the relevant international conventions, in this case relating to biodiversity.
For both of these events, orientations and expectations were clear.
There was particular focus on the COP16 on biodiversity because, during the previous COP15 summit in Montreal, the nations had adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) with a view to stopping and reversing biodiversity loss. The aim was for the countries to maintain a rate of progress towards the targets agreed during this new COP.
At COP29 on the climate, the focus was on financial contributions by advanced countries to help developing countries. An opportunity to determine monetary sums in support of their efforts for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
In both cases, however, those expectations have been only partially met. Despite a degree of success, the rate of progress needs to speed up if countries are to reach the biodiversity conservation goals fixed for 2030. The same applies to developing countries which need to be protected against the impacts of climate change and to switch to a low-carbon economy.

**Insufficient Funding

At COP16 on biodiversity, more than 85% of countries failed to meet the deadline for presenting their national strategies and action plans in favour of biodiversity, although it should be said that they were not legally bound to do so. This lack of legal obligation could hinder the achievement of biodiversity targets. Furthermore, only eight governments have undertaken to contribute, promising a total of $163 million to the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund (GBFF), [3], compared to the $700 billion per year required to preserve biodiversity, according to a report on nature funding published by Nature Conservancy. [4].

However, there were also two positive outcomes to COP16 : the formal inclusion of indigenous communities in official decisions relating to the UN biodiversity process ; and an agreement on global taxation of products based on natural genetic data, in order to raise funds for conservation and for the support of indigenous communities. Although this progress is of the utmost importance, to the extent that COP16 has been called the ‘people’s COP’, the breakthrough is insufficient to reach KMGBF targets by 2030.
In the scope of COP29 on the climate, the advanced nations promised to pay an annual $300 billion in climate funding to developing countries by 2035. This represents significant progress in comparison to the previous agreement on $200 billion, but is estimated to fall far short of the annual €2,400 billion requested by developing countries on the basis of a report written by renowned scientists and economists, which was presented at the COP.

**Reversing the Curve

In a scientific article published last month, we looked at the progress achieved in meeting three global biodiversity conservation and climate action objectives agreed upon for 2030. The first, defined under the KMGBF of the CBD, commits all parties to protect at least 30% of terrestrial areas, inland waters, coastal and maritime areas by 2030. The second target, defined by COP26 on the climate in the framework of the Glasgow Declaration on Forests and Land Use, commits the signing parties to “halt and reverse forest loss” by 2030. The third target, an outcome of the Bonn Restoration Challenge, aims to rehabilitate 350 million hectares of degraded and deforested land by 2030.

Our analysis of past trends and future estimations shows that in a business-as-usual scenario, none of these targets would be reached by 2030. As stated by the biologist Georgina Mace, to fill the gap between current trends and the above objectives, measures are required to “reverse the curve” and trigger substantial changes from the current tendency. What we observed during the COPs is a long way from bringing the change needed to stop and reserve biodiversity loss and to achieve the goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

**Multiple Obstacles and Few Levers for Improvement

A number of factors must be considered in the assessment of progress achieved towards the fulfilment of objectives. Firstly, we must ask ourselves what makes things move away from objectives. Environmentally harmful subsidising, estimated at 2.5% of global GDP in 2024 (i.e. $2,600 billion), is not only inconsistent with targets, it also continues to increase (by approximately $800 billion over the past two years). These subsidies include, for example, tax exemption on fuel for commercial airlines. Similarly, authorising 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists at COP28 [5]was hardly likely to result in governments making the right decisions in terms of climate action.

In world politics, the result of the US elections was not greeted warmly by climate action bodies, who have good reason to be alarmed. Research will be carried out to assess the impact on climate change if the threatened protectionist measures are implemented. Indeed, by limiting the dissemination of affordable green technologies among the regions that most need them, such measures could hinder the energy transition that is needed. Nevertheless, no discouragement will reduce our capacity for action because it takes more than a single government, powerful as it may be, to shape the future of CO2 emissions. Indeed, the cost of renewable energies in general, and solar panels in particular, gets lower year by year. The ratio of renewable energies to total capacity reached 86% in 2023.

As we demonstrate in the article on the global 2030 goals agreed for conservation and climate action, rapid progress towards targets has been achieved in the past for certain indicators. For example, there was a rapid, unprecedented expansion of protected marine areas between 2006 and 2017. In terms of deforestation, tropical countries have been able to significantly reduce their deforestation rate during certain periods. Our analysis shows that, in such cases, progress is achieved not with miracle solutions, but through a variety of factors, such as environmental management, economic factors, values and the dissemination of knowledge. Additional research could give us a better understanding of these levers and how they can be combined in space and time to speed up progress towards global conservation goals.

**Closely-Linked Issues

As concluded by the biodiversity and climate action workshop cosponsored by the IPBES [6] and the IPCC, [7] these two issues are generally handled separately, although they are closely interconnected. Further research is required to highlight the points of synergy and conflict between biodiversity and climate issues. This analysis should include cross-disciplinary approaches incorporating the social and human sciences into biodiversity and climate science, to help us understand the links with biodiversity and the climate at individual, collective and institutional levels.
In today’s dynamic world, science and the joint production of knowledge are more vital than ever if we are to rise to the complex challenges that face us. In this context, IRD is a unique organisation that responds to such challenges through an interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary approach."

References

Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J. Ferraro, Roldan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M. Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun & Sandra Lavorel, Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets, Ambio, 07 novembre 2024
doi : 10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6

local scientist contact

– Ignacio Palomo, chercheur IRD à l’IGE-OSUG | ignacio.palomo univ-grenoble-alpes.fr

This article, was initially published by IRD le Mag’.