Publications antérieures (équipes GLACE et CYME) :
2019 |
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Abbatt, J., Leaitch, W., Aliabadi, A., Bertram, A., Blanchet, J., Boivin-Rioux, A., et al. (2019). Overview paper: New insights into aerosol and climate in the Arctic. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 19(4), 2527–2560.
Abstract: Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20% in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41% of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20% to 80% of the 30-50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol-climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s(-1)).
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Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallee, H., et al. (2019). Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes. Cryosphere, 13(1), 281–296.
Abstract: The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979-2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr(-1) over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16% of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.
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Baas, P., Van De Wiel, B., Van Meijgaard, E., Vignon, E., Genthon, C., Van Der Linden, S., et al. (2019). Transitions in the wintertime near-surface temperature inversion at Dome C, Antarctica. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 145(720), 930–946.
Abstract: In this work we study the dynamics of the surface-based temperature inversion over the Antarctic Plateau during the polar winter. Using 6 years of observations from the French-Italian Antarctic station Concordia at Dome C, we investigate sudden regime transitions in the strength of the near-surface temperature inversion. Here we define near-surface as being within the domain of the 45-m measuring tower. In particular, we consider the strongly nonlinear relation between the 10-m inversion strength (T-10m – T-s) and the 10-m wind speed. To this end, all individual events for which the 10-m inversion strength increases or decreases continuously by more than 15 K in time are considered. Composite time series and vertical profiles of wind and temperature reveal specific characteristics of the transition from weak to very strong inversions and vice versa. In contrast to midlatitudes, the largest variations in temperature are not found at the surface but at a height of 10 m. A similar analysis was performed on results from an atmospheric single-column model (SCM). Overall, the SCM results reproduce the observed characteristics of the transitions in the near-surface inversion remarkably well. Using model output, the underlying mechanisms of the regime transitions are identified. The nonlinear relation between inversion strength and wind speed at a given level is explained by variations in the geostrophic wind speed, changes in the depth of the turbulent layer and the vertical divergence of turbulent fluxes. Moreover, the transitions between different boundary layer regimes cannot be explained without considering the contribution of subsidence heating.
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Bartels-Rausch, T., & Montagnat, M. (2019). The physics and chemistry of ice. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 377(2146). |
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Beaumet, J., Deque, M., Krinner, G., Agosta, C., & Alias, A. (2019). Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model. Cryosphere, 13(11), 3023–3043.
Abstract: Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynamical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981-2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanalyses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. For the simulation using SSCs from NorESM1-M, no significantly different climate change signals over Antarctica as a whole are found when bias-corrected SSCs are used. For the simulation driven by MIROC-ESM SSCs, a significant additional increase in precipitation and in winter temperatures for the Antarctic Ice Sheet is obtained when using bias-corrected SSCs. For the range of Antarctic warming found (+ 3 to +4 K), we confirm that snowfall increase will largely outweigh increases in melt and rainfall. Using the end members of sea ice trends from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projections, the difference in warming obtained (similar to 1 K) is much smaller than the spread of the CMIP5 Antarctic warming projections. This confirms that the errors in representing the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in climate models are also determinant for the diversity of their projected late 21st century Antarctic climate change.
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Beaumet, J., Krinner, G., Deque, M., Haarsma, R., & Li, L. (2019). Assessing bias corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(1), 321–342.
Abstract: Future sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models such as those from the CMIP5 experiment are often used as boundary forcings for the downscaling of future climate experiments. Yet, these models show some considerable biases when compared to the observations over present climate. In this paper, existing methods such as an absolute anomaly method and a quantile-quantile method for sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a look-up table and a relative anomaly method for sea-ice concentration (SIC) are presented. For SIC, we also propose a new analogue method. Each method is objectively evaluated with a perfect model test using CMIP5 model experiments and some real-case applications using observations. We find that with respect to other previously existing methods, the analogue method is a substantial improvement for the bias correction of future SIC. Consistency between the constructed SST and SIC fields is an important constraint to consider, as is consistency between the prescribed sea-ice concentration and thickness; we show that the latter can be ensured by using a simple parameterisation of sea-ice thickness as a function of instantaneous and annual minimum SIC.
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Breant, C., Dos Santos, C., Agosta, C., Casado, M., Fourre, E., Goursaud, S., et al. (2019). Coastal water vapor isotopic composition driven by katabatic wind variability in summer at Dumont d'Urville, coastal East Antarctica. Earth And Planetary Science Letters, 514, 37–47.
Abstract: Dumont d'Urville station, located on the East coast of Antarctica in Adelie Land, is in one of the windiest coastal region on Earth, due to katabatic winds downslope from the East Antarctic ice sheet. In summer, the season of interest in this study, coastal weather is characterized by well-marked diel cycles in temperature and wind patterns. Our study aims at exploring the added value of water vapor stable isotopes in coastal Adelie Land to provide new information on the local atmospheric water cycle and climate. An important application is the interpretation of water isotopic profiles in snow and ice cores recently drilled in Adelie Land. We present the first continuous measurements of delta O-18 and d-excess in water vapor over Adelie Land. During our measurements period (26/12/2016 to 03/02/2017), we observed clear diel cycles in terms of temperature, humidity and isotopic composition. The cycles in isotopic composition are particularly large given the muted variations in temperature when compared to other Antarctic sites where similar monitoring have been performed. Based on data analyses and simulations obtained with the regional MAR model on the coastal Adelie Land, we suggest that the driver for delta O-18 and d-excess diel variability in summer at Dumont d'Urville is the variation of the strength of the wind coming from the continent: the periods with strong wind are associated with the arrival of relatively dry air with water vapor associated with low delta O-18 and high d-excess from the Antarctic plateau. Finally, in addition to the interpretation of snow and ice core isotopic profiles in the coastal regions, our study has implications for the evaluation of atmospheric models equipped with water isotopes. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., & Gagliardini, O. (2019). Sensitivity of centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen basin to the friction law. Cryosphere, 13(1), 177–195.
Abstract: Reliable projections of ice sheets' future contributions to sea-level rise require models that are able to accurately simulate grounding-line dynamics, starting from initial states consistent with observations. Here, we simulate the centennial evolution of the Amundsen Sea Embayment in response to a prescribed perturbation in order to assess the sensitivity of mass loss projections to the chosen friction law, depending on the initialisation strategy. To this end, three different model states are constructed by inferring both the initial basal shear stress and viscosity fields with various relative weights. Then, starting from each of these model states, prognostic simulations are carried out using a Weertman, a Schoof and a Budd friction law, with different parameter values. Although the sensitivity of projections to the chosen friction law tends to decrease when more weight is put on viscosity during initialisation, it remains significant for the most physically acceptable of the constructed model states. Independently of the considered model state, the Weertman law systematically predicts the lowest mass losses. In addition, because of its particular dependence on effective pressure, the Budd friction law induces significantly different grounding-line retreat patterns than the other laws and predicts significantly higher mass losses.
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Burr, A., Lhuissier, P., Martin, C., & Philip, A. (2019). In situ X-ray tomography densification of firn: The role of mechanics and diffusion processes. Acta Materialia, 167, 210–220.
Abstract: One of the most efficient proxy methods for paleoclimatology consists of obtaining data previously preserved within polar ice cores. Models for past climate reconstruction are based in particular on the characterization of entrapped gases in ice closed pores. Improving the temporal accuracy of these models requires a better understanding of firn densification mechanisms. In particular, the interplay between viscoplastic deformation and diffusion processes for pore closure is not well understood. In this work, we describe the first in situ laboratory densification experiments on polar firn retrieved from Antarctica with live characterization by X-ray tomography. Our in situ tests allow for the first time to approximately access the process of pore closure in ice, which takes thousands of years to occur in Antarctica, from visualizations and quantitative analyses of short time laboratory experiments. The parameters of pore separation and closure and the microstructural changes that accompany them are monitored. We show that densification of polar firn and pore closure could be replicated at higher strain rate and warmer temperature. Experiments allow the viscoplastic part of the firn deformation to be decoupled from the diffusion mechanisms that occur at high temperature. Our results show that density alone is not sufficient to predict the close-off density at which gases get entrapped. More generally, the method laid out here may find useful application in the domain of high temperature powder compaction, for which pore closure and grain growth are significant process parameters. (C) 2019 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Calonne, N., Milliancourt, L., Burr, A., Philip, A., Martin, C., Flin, F., et al. (2019). Thermal Conductivity of Snow, Firn, and Porous Ice From 3-D Image-Based Computations. Geophysical Research Letters, .
Abstract: Estimating thermal conductivity of snow, firn, and porous ice is key for modeling the thermal regime of alpine and polar glaciers. Whereas thermal conductivity of snow was widely investigated, studies on firn and porous ice are very scarce. This study presents the effective thermal conductivity tensor computed from 64 3-D images of microstructures of snow, antarctic firn, and porous ice at -3, -20, and -60 degrees C. We show that, in contrast with snow, conductivity of firn and porous ice correlates linearly with density, is approximately isotropic, and is largely impacted by temperature. We report that performances of commonly used estimates of thermal conductivity vary largely with density. In particular, formulas designed for snow lead to significant underestimations when applied to denser ice structures. We present a new formulation to accurately estimate the thermal conductivity throughout the whole density range, from fresh snow to bubbly ice, and for any temperature conditions encountered in glaciers.
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Champollion, N., Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Lefebvre, E., Macelloni, G., Remy, F., et al. (2019). Marked decrease in the near-surface snow density retrieved by AMSR-E satellite at Dome C, Antarctica, between 2002 and 2011. Cryosphere, 13(4), 1215–1232.
Abstract: Surface snow density is an important variable for the surface mass balance and energy budget. It evolves according to meteorological conditions, in particular, snowfall, wind, and temperature, but the physical processes governing atmospheric influence on snow are not fully understood. A reason is that no systematic observation is available on a continental scale. Here, we use the passive microwave observations from AMSR-E satellite to retrieve the surface snow density at Dome C on the East Antarctic Plateau. The retrieval method is based on the difference of surface reflections between horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperatures at 37 GHz, highlighted by the computation of the polarization ratio, which is related to surface snow density. The relationship has been obtained with a microwave emission radiative transfer model (DMRT-ML). The retrieved density, approximately representative of the topmost 3 cm of the snowpack, compares well with in situ measurements. The difference between mean in situ measurements and mean retrieved density is 26.2 kg m(-3), which is within typical in situ measurement uncertainties. We apply the retrieval method to derive the time series over the period 2002-2011. The results show a marked and persistent pluri-annual decrease of about 10 kg m(-3) yr(-1), in addition to atmosphere-related seasonal, weekly, and daily density variations. This trend is confirmed by independent active microwave observations from the ENVISAT and QuikSCAT satellites, though the link to the density is more difficult to establish. However, no related pluri-annual change in meteorological conditions has been found to explain such a trend in snow density. Further work will concern the extension of the method to the continental scale.
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Chernokulsky, A., Kozlov, F., Zolina, O., Bulygina, O., Mokhov, I., & Semenov, V. (2019). Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades. Environmental Research Letters, 14(4).
Abstract: Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1 degrees C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.
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Colombo, R., Garzonio, R., Di Mauro, B., Dumont, M., Tuzet, F., Cogliati, S., et al. (2019). Introducing Thermal Inertia for Monitoring Snowmelt Processes With Remote Sensing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(8), 4308–4319.
Abstract: Thermal inertia has been successfully used in remote sensing applications that span from geology, geomorphology to hydrology. In this paper, we propose the use of thermal inertia for describing snow dynamics. Two different formulations of thermal inertia were tested using experimental and simulated data related to snowpack dynamics. Experimental data were acquired between 2012 and 2017 from an automatic weather station located in the western Italian Alps at 2,160 m. Simulations were obtained using the one-dimensional multilayer Crocus model. Results provided evidences that snowmelt phases can be recognized, and average snowpack density can be estimated reasonably well from thermal inertia observations (R-2 = 0.71; RMSE = 65 kg/m(3)). The empirical model was also validated with manual snow density measurements (R-2 = 0.80; RMSE = 54 kg/m(3)). This study is the first attempt at the exploitation of thermal inertia for snow monitoring, combining optical and thermal remote sensing data. Plain Language Summary Alpine snow represents a fundamental reservoir of fresh water at midlatitude. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to estimate snow properties in different spectral domains. In particular, the knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability of snow density could allow modeling of the snow water equivalent, which knowledge is crucial for managing water resources in the face of current climate change. In this study we show for the first time that snow thermal inertia can contribute to monitoring of snowmelt processes and snow density, opening new perspectives for remote sensing of the cryosphere.
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Crouzet, C., Wilhelm, B., Sabatier, P., Demory, F., Thouveny, N., Pignol, C., et al. (2019). Palaeomagnetism for chronologies of recent alpine lake sediments: successes and limits. Journal Of Paleolimnology, 62(3), 259–278.
Abstract: Chronologies of lake-sediment records covering the last centuries to millennia are usually based on both short-lived radionuclides and radiocarbon dating. However, beyond the range of short-lived radionuclides, age model accuracy often suffers from large radiocarbon uncertainties. For high-altitude records, this issue is even more prominent as terrestrial plant fragments for radiocarbon dating are often lacking due to the sparse vegetation in such environments. In this study, we evaluate the potential of the geomagnetic field secular variations as a complementary tool to establish more robust age-depth relationships. Our palaeomagnetic study, applied to five high-altitude lakes from the western European Alps, first shows that recent unconsolidated sediments can carry stable remanent magnetization. The analysis of the magnetic parameters indicates that low-coercivity pseudo-single domain magnetite grains carry the natural magnetization. Nevertheless, the quality of palaeomagnetic secular variation records varies from one lake to another. This quality can be illustrated through the calculation of the declination/inclination maximum angular variations and their comparison to the expected value. Compared with available models, the declination variations are usually too large and the inclination too high. We discuss the validity of palaeosecular variation (PSV) of the Earth's magnetic field regarding rock magnetism, magnetization processes and possible deformation during coring. From a magnetic point of view, the quality of data is variable, but the characteristic remanent magnetization direction is consistent at site level between neighbouring lakes and with the reference curve, suggesting that geomagnetic field secular variations are approximately recorded. Finally, we attempt to correlate the declination/inclination variations of the characteristic remanent magnetization measured in the five records to the reference geomagnetic model to provide additional chronological markers for age-depth modelling. These stratigraphic chrono-markers appear in systematic agreement with our previous chronological data and enable a reduction of dating uncertainties up to 30% when including these chrono-markers in the age-depth modelling. This agreement supports the interpretation that PSV may have been recorded more or less accurately depending on the studied lake. Therefore, coupled with a comprehensive understanding through other analysis (sedimentology, dating, geochemistry), PSV can be used to improve the age models in the more favourable cases.
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Datta, R., Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C., Lhermitte, S., Lenaerts, J., et al. (2019). The Effect of Foehn-Induced Surface Melt on Firn Evolution Over the Northeast Antarctic Peninsula. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(7), 3822–3831.
Abstract: Surface meltwater ponding has been implicated as a major driver for recent ice shelf collapse as well as the speedup of tributary glaciers in the northeast Antarctic Peninsula. Surface melt on the NAP is impacted by the strength and frequency of westerly winds, which result in sporadic foehn flow. We estimate changes in the frequency of foehn flow and the associated impact on snow melt, density, and the percolation depth of meltwater over the period 1982-2017 using a regional climate model and passive microwave data. The first of two methods extracts spatial patterns of melt occurrence using empirical orthogonal function analysis. The second method applies the Foehn Index, introduced here to capture foehn occurrence over the full study domain. Both methods show substantial foehn-induced melt late in the melt season since 2015, resulting in compounded densification of the near-surface snow, with potential implications for future ice shelf stability.
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Delaygue, G., Bronnimann, S., Jones, P., Blanchet, J., & Schwander, M. (2019). Reconstruction of Lamb weather type series back to the eighteenth century. Climate Dynamics, 52(9-10), 6131–6148.
Abstract: The Lamb weather type series is a subjective catalogue of daily atmospheric patterns and flow directions over the British Isles, covering the period 1861-1996. Based on synoptic maps, meteorologists have empirically classified surface pressure patterns over this area, which is a key area for the progression of Atlantic storm tracks towards Europe. We apply this classification to a set of daily pressure series from a few stations from western Europe, in order to reconstruct and to extend this daily weather type series back to 1781. We describe a statistical framework which provides, for each day, the weather types consistent enough with the observed pressure pattern, and their respective probability. Overall, this technique can correctly reconstruct almost 75% of the Lamb daily types, when simplified to the seven main weather types. The weather type series are described and compared to the original series for the winter season only. Since the low frequency variability of synoptic conditions is directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we derive from the weather type series an NAO index for winter. An interesting feature is a larger multidecadal variability during the nineteenth century than during the twentieth century.
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Domine, F., Picard, G., Morin, S., Barrere, M., Madore, J., & Langlois, A. (2019). Major Issues in Simulating Some Arctic Snowpack Properties Using Current Detailed Snow Physics Models: Consequences for the Thermal Regime and Water Budget of Permafrost. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 11(1), 34–44.
Abstract: Accurately simulating the physical properties of Arctic snowpacks is essential for modeling the surface energy budget and the permafrost thermal regime. We show that the detailed snow physics models Crocus and SNOWPACK cannot simulate critical snow physical variables. Both models simulate basal layers with high density and high thermal conductivity, and top layers with low values for both variables, while field measurements yield opposite results. We explore the impact of an inverted snow stratigraphy on the permafrost thermal regime at a high Arctic site using a simplified heat transfer model and idealized snowpacks with three layers. One snowpack has a typical Arctic stratification with a low-density insulating basal layer, while the other (called Alpine-type snowpack) has a dense conducting basal layer. Snowpack stratification impacts simulated ground temperatures at 5 cm depth by less than 0.3 degrees C. Heat conduction through layered snowpacks is therefore determined by thermal insulance rather than by stratification. Ground dehydration caused by upward water vapor diffusion is 4 times greater under Arctic stratification, leading to a larger latent heat loss, but also to a lower soil thermal conductivity caused by ice loss, so that the overall effect of dehydration on ground temperature is uncertain. Snowpack stratification is found to affect snow surface temperature by up to 4 degrees C. Lastly, different snow metamorphism rates lead to a lower Alpine snowpack albedo, contributing to a warmer ground. Quantifying all these effects is needed for adequately simulating permafrost temperature. This requires the development of a snow and soil model that describes water vapor fluxes. Plain Language Summary Many detailed snow physics models were developed mostly for alpine conditions. They do not reproduce the strong upward water vapor flux between the lowest snow layers in contact with the warmer ground and the upper snow layers in contact with the colder atmosphere, which occurs in the Arctic. As a consequence, snow density and thermal conductivity are not adequately simulated for Arctic conditions. Models predict high density, high thermal conductivity basal snow layers, while the opposite is observed in the Arctic. We show that, if the total insulating capacity of the snowpack is simulated correctly, having an incorrect layering of thermal conductivity in the simulated snowpack has little impact on ground temperature. However, since current models do not simulate the upward water vapor flux, the water vapor loss of the ground in winter cannot be simulated either. This affects the soil water budget and therefore its physical properties, and this may modify its temperature. Incorrect snow layering is also found to affect snow surface temperature by up to 4 degrees C.
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Dommergue, A., Amato, P., Tignat-Perrier, R., Magand, O., Thollot, A., Joly, M., et al. (2019). Methods to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Microbiome. Frontiers In Microbiology, 10.
Abstract: The interplay between microbes and atmospheric physical and chemical conditions is an open field of research that can only be fully addressed using multidisciplinary approaches. The lack of coordinated efforts to gather data at representative temporal and spatial scales limits aerobiology to help understand large scale patterns of global microbial biodiversity and its causal relationships with the environmental context. This paper presents the sampling strategy and analytical protocols developed in order to integrate different fields of research such as microbiology, -omics biology, atmospheric chemistry, physics and meteorology to characterize atmospheric microbial life. These include control of chemical and microbial contaminations from sampling to analysis and identification of experimental procedures for characterizing airborne microbial biodiversity and its functioning from the atmospheric samples collected at remote sites from low cell density environments. We used high-volume sampling strategy to address both chemical and microbial composition of the atmosphere, because it can help overcome low aerosol and microbial cell concentrations. To account for contaminations, exposed and unexposed control filters were processed along with the samples. We present a method that allows for the extraction of chemical and biological data from the same quartz filters. We tested different sampling times, extraction kits and methods to optimize DNA yield from filters. Based on our results, we recommend supplementary sterilization steps to reduce filter contamination induced by handling and transport. These include manipulation under laminar flow hoods and UV sterilization. In terms of DNA extraction, we recommend a vortex step and a heating step to reduce binding to the quartz fibers of the filters. These steps have led to a 10-fold increase in DNA yield, allowing for downstream omics analysis of air samples. Based on our results, our method can be integrated into pre-existing long-term monitoring field protocols for the atmosphere both in terms of atmospheric chemistry and biology. We recommend using standardized air volumes and to develop standard operating protocols for field users to better control the operational quality.
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Druel, A., Ciais, P., Krinner, G., & Peylin, P. (2019). Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 11(7), 2020–2035.
Abstract: Parameterizations of plant competition processes involving shrubs, mosses, grasses, and trees were introduced with the recently implemented shrubs and mosses plant functional types in the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model in order to improve the representation of high latitude vegetation dynamics. Competition is based on light capture for growth, net primary productivity, and survival to cold-induced mortality during winter. Trees are assumed to outcompete shrubs and grasses for light, and shrubs outcompete grasses. Shrubs are modeled to have a higher survival than trees to extremely cold winters because of thermic protection by snow. The fractional coverage of each plant type is based on their respective net primary productivity and winter mortality of trees and shrubs. Gridded simulations were carried out for the historical period and the 21st century following the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We evaluate the simulated present-day vegetation with an observation-based distribution map and literature data of boreal shrubs. The simulation produces a realistic present-day boreal vegetation distribution, with shrubs, mosses north of trees and grasses. Nevertheless, the model underestimated local shrub expansion compared to observations from selected sites in the Arctic during the last 30 years suggesting missing processes (nutrients and microscale effects). The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections show a substantial decrease of bare soil, an increase in tree and moss cover and an increase of shrub net primary productivity. Finally, the impact of new vegetation types and associated processes is discussed in the context of climate feedbacks.
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Dufour, A., Charrondiere, C., & Zolina, O. (2019). Moisture transport in observations and reanalyses as a proxy for snow accumulation in East Antarctica. Cryosphere, 13(2), 413–425.
Abstract: Atmospheric moisture convergence on ice sheets provides an estimate of snow accumulation, which is critical to quantifying sea-level changes. In the case of East Antarctica, we computed moisture transport from 1980 to 2016 in five reanalyses and in radiosonde observations. Moisture convergence in reanalyses is more consistent than net precipitation but still ranges from 72 to 96 mm yr(-1) in the four most recent reanalyses, ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JRA 55 and MERR Lambda 2. The representation of long-term variability in reanalyses is also inconsistent, which justified resorting to observations. Moisture fluxes are measured on a daily basis via radiosondes launched from a network of stations surrounding East Antarctica. Observations agree with reanalyses on the major role of extreme advection events and transient eddy fluxes. Although assimilated, the observations reveal processes that reanalyses cannot model, some due to a lack of horizontal and vertical resolution, especially the oldest, NCEP DOE R2. Additionally, the observational time series are not affected by new satellite data unlike the reanalyses. We formed pan-continental estimates of convergence by aggregating anomalies from all available stations. We found statistically significant trends neither in moisture convergence nor in precipitable water.
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Duran-Alarcon, C., Boudevillain, B., Genthon, C., Grazioli, J., Souverijns, N., Van Lipzig, N., et al. (2019). The vertical structure of precipitation at two stations in East Antarctica derived from micro rain radars. Cryosphere, 13(1), 247–264.
Abstract: Precipitation over Antarctica is the main term in the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet, which is crucial for the future evolution of the sea level worldwide. Precipitation, however, remains poorly documented and understood mainly because of a lack of observations in this extreme environment. Two observatories dedicated to precipitation have been set up at the Belgian station Princess Elisabeth (PE) and at the French station Dumont d'Urville (DDU) in East Antarctica. Among other instruments, both sites have a vertically pointing micro rain radar (MRR) working at the K band. Measurements have been continuously collected at DDU since the austral summer of 2015-2016, while they have been collected mostly during summer seasons at PE since 2010, with a full year of observation during 2012. In this study, the statistics of the vertical profiles of reflectivity, vertical velocity, and spectral width are analyzed for all seasons. Vertical profiles were separated into surface precipitation and virga to evaluate the impact of virga on the structure of the vertical profiles. The climatology of the study area plays an important role in the structure of the precipitation: warmer and moister atmospheric conditions at DDU favor the occurrence of more intense precipitation compared with PE, with a difference of 8 dBZ between both stations. The strong katabatic winds blowing at DDU induce a decrease in reflectivity close to the ground due to the sublimation of the snowfall particles. The vertical profiles of precipitation velocity show significant differences between the two stations. In general, at DDU the vertical velocity increases as the height decreases, while at PE the vertical velocity decreases as the height decreases. These features of the vertical profiles of reflectivity and vertical velocity could be explained by the more frequent occurrence of aggregation and riming at DDU compared to PE because of the lower temperature and relative humidity at the latter, located further in the interior. Robust and reliable statistics about the vertical profile of precipitation in Antarctica, as derived from MRRs for instance, are necessary and valuable for the evaluation of precipitation estimates derived from satellite measurements and from numerical atmospheric models.
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Dussaillant, I., Berthier, E., Brun, F., Masiokas, M., Hugonnet, R., Favier, V., et al. (2019). Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes. Nature Geoscience, 12(10), 803–+.
Abstract: Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to sea level rise on Earth. They also represent crucial water resources in many tropical and semi-arid mountain catchments. Yet the magnitude of the recent ice loss is still debated. Here we present Andean glacier mass changes (from 10 degrees N to 56 degrees S) between 2000 and 2018 using time series of digital elevation models derived from ASTER stereo images. The total mass change over this period was -22.9 +/- 5.9 Gt yr(-1) (-0.72 +/- 0.22 m w.e.yr(-1) (m w.e., metres of water equivalent)), with the most negative mass balances in the Patagonian Andes (-0.78 +/- 0.25 m w.e. yr(-1)) and the Tropical Andes (-0.42 +/- 0.24 m w.e. yr(-1)), compared to relatively moderate losses (-0.28 +/- 0.18 m w.e. yr(-1)) in the Dry Andes. Subperiod analysis (2000-2009 versus 2009-2018) revealed a steady mass loss in the tropics and south of 45 degrees S. Conversely, a shift from a slightly positive to a strongly negative mass balance was measured between 26 and 45 degrees S. In the latter region, the drastic glacier loss in recent years coincides with the extremely dry conditions since 2010 and partially helped to mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of this severe and sustained drought. These results provide a comprehensive, high-resolution and multidecadal data set of recent Andes-wide glacier mass changes that constitutes a relevant basis for the calibration and validation of hydrological and glaciological models intended to project future glacier changes and their hydrological impacts.
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Dutheil, C., Bador, M., Lengaigne, M., Lefevre, J., Jourdain, N., Vialard, J., et al. (2019). Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Climate Dynamics, 53(5-6), 3197–3219.
Abstract: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a “double Intertropical convergence zone” and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. Such biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. In this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the SPCZ present-day climatology and interannual variability. More specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases or correcting projected SST changes using an emergent constraint approach. While the equatorial western Pacific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and CMIP5, correcting the projected CMIP5 SST changes yields a considerably larger reduction (similar to 25%) than in CMIP5 simulations (similar to + 3%) in the southwestern Pacific. Indeed, correcting the projected CMIP5 warming pattern yields stronger projected SST gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the SPCZ. Finally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and SPCZ variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events simulated by CMIP5 models. This study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct CMIP5 present-day SST biases but also projected SST changes to improve the reliability of their projections. Additional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results.
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Edwards, T., Brandon, M., Durand, G., Edwards, N., Golledge, N., Holden, P., et al. (2019). Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature, 566(7742), 58–+.
Abstract: Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.
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Favier, L., Jourdain, N., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., et al. (2019). Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean-ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)-Elmer/Ice(v8.3). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(6), 2255–2283.
Abstract: Oceanic melting beneath ice shelves is the main driver of the current mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet and is mostly parameterised in stand-alone ice-sheet modelling. Parameterisations are crude representations of reality, and their response to ocean warming has not been compared to 3D ocean-ice-sheet coupled models. Here, we assess various melting parameterisations ranging from simple scalings with far-field thermal driving to emulators of box and plume models, using a new coupling framework combining the ocean model NEMO and the ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice. We define six idealised one-century scenarios for the far-field ocean ranging from cold to warm, and representative of potential futures for typical Antarctic ice shelves. The scenarios are used to constrain an idealised geometry of the Pine Island glacier representative of a relatively small cavity. Melt rates and sea-level contributions obtained with the parameterised stand-alone ice-sheet model are compared to the coupled model results. The plume parameterisations give good results for cold scenarios but fail and underestimate sea level contribution by tens of percent for warm(ing) scenarios, which may be improved by adapting its empirical scaling. The box parameterisation with five boxes compares fairly well to the coupled results for almost all scenarios, but further work is needed to grasp the correct number of boxes. For simple scalings, the comparison to the coupled framework shows that a quadratic as opposed to linear dependency on thermal forcing is required. In addition, the quadratic dependency is improved when melting depends on both local and non-local, i.e. averaged over the ice shelf, thermal forcing. The results of both the box and the two quadratic parameterisations fall within or close to the coupled model uncertainty. All parameterisations overestimate melting for thin ice shelves while underestimating melting in deep water near the grounding line. Further work is therefore needed to assess the validity of these melting parameteriations in more realistic set-ups.
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Fourteau, K., Martinerie, P., Fain, X., Schaller, C., Tuckwell, R., Lowe, H., et al. (2019). Multi-tracer study of gas trapping in an East Antarctic ice core. Cryosphere, 13(12), 3383–3403.
Abstract: We study a firn and ice core drilled at the new “Lock-In” site in East Antarctica, located 136 km away from Concordia station towards Dumont d'Urville. High-resolution chemical and physical measurements were performed on the core, with a particular focus on the trapping zone of the firn where air bubbles are formed. We measured the air content in the ice, closed and open porous volumes in the firn, firn density, firn liquid conductivity, major ion concentrations, and methane concentrations in the ice. The closed and open porosity volumes of firn samples were obtained using the two independent methods of pycnometry and tomography, which yield similar results. The measured increase in the closed porosity with density is used to estimate the air content trapped in the ice with the aid of a simple gas-trapping model. Results show a discrepancy, with the model trapping too much air. Experimental errors have been considered but do not explain the discrepancy between the model and the observations. The model and data can be reconciled with the introduction of a reduced compression of the closed porosity compared to the open porosity. Yet, it is not clear if this limited compression of closed pores is the actual mechanism responsible for the low amount of air in the ice. High-resolution density measurements reveal the presence of strong layering, manifesting itself as centimeter-scale variations. Despite this heterogeneous stratification, all layers, including the ones that are especially dense or less dense compared to their surroundings, display similar pore morphology and closed porosity as a function of density. This implies that all layers close in a similar way, even though some close in advance or later compared to the bulk firn. Investigation of the chemistry data suggests that in the trapping zone, the observed stratification is partly related to the presence of chemical impurities.
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Gimbert, F., Fuller, B., Lamb, M., Tsai, V., & Johnson, J. (2019). Particle transport mechanics and induced seismic noise in steep flume experiments with accelerometer-embedded tracers. Earth Surface Processes And Landforms, 44(1), 219–241.
Abstract: Recent advances in fluvial seismology have provided solid observational and theoretical evidence that near-river seismic ground motion may be used to monitor and quantify coarse sediment transport. However, inversions of sediment transport rates from seismic observations have not been fully tested against independent measurements, and thus have unknown but potentially large uncertainties. In the present study, we provide the first robust test of existing theory by conducting dedicated sediment transport experiments in a flume laboratory under fully turbulent and rough flow conditions. We monitor grain-scale physics with the use of 'smart rocks' that consist of accelerometers embedded into manufactured rocks, and we quantitatively link bedload mechanics and seismic observations under various prescribed flow and sediment transport conditions. From our grain-scale observations, we find that bedload grain hop times are widely distributed, with impacts being on average much more frequent than predicted by existing saltation models. Impact velocities are observed to be a linear function of average downstream cobble velocities, and both velocities show a bed-slope dependency that is not represented in existing saltation models. Incorporating these effects in an improved bedload-induced seismic noise model allows sediment flux to be inverted from seismic noise within a factor of two uncertainty. This result holds over nearly two orders of magnitude of prescribed sediment fluxes with different sediment sizes and channel-bed slopes, and particle-particle collisions observed at the highest investigated rates are found to have negligible effect on the generated seismic power. These results support the applicability of the seismic-inversion framework to mountain rivers, although further experiments remain to be conducted at sediment transport near transport capacity. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Preunkert, S., Legrand, M., Minster, B., et al. (2019). Challenges associated with the climatic interpretation of water stable isotope records from a highly resolved firn core from Adelie Land, coastal Antarctica. Cryosphere, 13(4), 1297–1324.
Abstract: A new 21.3 m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adelie Land (66.78 degrees S; 139.56 degrees E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adelie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (-19.3 parts per thousand +/- 3.1 parts per thousand for delta O-18 and 5.4 parts per thousand +/- 2.2 parts per thousand for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope-temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the delta O-18 seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135-145 degrees E) over the period 1998-2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess-delta O-18 relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adelie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.
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Hagenmuller, P., Flin, F., Dumont, M., Tuzet, F., Peinke, I., Lapalus, P., et al. (2019). Motion of dust particles in dry snow under temperature gradient metamorphism. Cryosphere, 13(9), 2345–2359.
Abstract: The deposition of light-absorbing particles (LAPs) such as mineral dust and black carbon on snow is responsible for a highly effective climate forcing, through darkening of the snow surface and associated feedbacks. The interplay between post-depositional snow transformation (metamorphism) and the dynamics of LAPs in snow remains largely unknown. We obtained time series of X-ray tomography images of dust-contaminated samples undergoing dry snow metamorphism at around -2 degrees C. They provide the first observational evidence that temperature gradient metamorphism induces dust particle motion in snow, while no movement is observed under isothermal conditions. Under temperature gradient metamorphism, dust particles can enter the ice matrix due to sublimation-condensation processes and spread down mainly by falling into the pore space. Overall, such motions might reduce the radiative impact of dust in snow, in particular in arctic regions where temperature gradient metamorphism prevails.
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Jansson, P., Triest, J., Grilli, R., Ferre, B., Silyakova, A., Mienert, J., et al. (2019). High-resolution underwater laser spectrometer sensing provides new insights into methane distribution at an Arctic seepage site. Ocean Science, 15(4), 1055–1069.
Abstract: Methane (CH4) in marine sediments has the potential to contribute to changes in the ocean and climate system. Physical and biochemical processes that are difficult to quantify with current standard methods such as acoustic surveys and discrete sampling govern the distribution of dissolved CH4 in oceans and lakes. Detailed observations of aquatic CH4 concentrations are required for a better understanding of CH4 dynamics in the water column, how it can affect lake and ocean acidification, the chemosynthetic ecosystem, and mixing ratios of atmospheric climate gases. Here we present pioneering high-resolution in situ measurements of dissolved CH4 throughout the water column over a 400 m deep CH4 seepage area at the continental slope west of Svalbard. A new fast-response underwater membraneinlet laser spectrometer sensor demonstrates technological advances and breakthroughs for ocean measurements. We reveal decametre-scale variations in dissolved CH4 concentrations over the CH4 seepage zone. Previous studies could not resolve such heterogeneity in the area, assumed a smoother distribution, and therefore lacked both details on and insights into ongoing processes. We show good repeatability of the instrument measurements, which are also in agreement with discrete sampling. New numerical models, based on acoustically evidenced free gas emissions from the seafloor, support the observed heterogeneity and CH4 inventory. We identified sources of CH4, undetectable with echo sounder, and rapid diffusion of dissolved CH4 away from the sources. Results from the continuous ocean laser-spectrometer measurements, supported by modelling, improve our understanding of CH4 fluxes and related physical processes over Arctic CH4 degassing regions.
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Jourdain, N., Molines, J., Le Sommer, J., Mathiot, P., Chanut, J., De Lavergne, C., et al. (2019). Simulating or prescribing the influence of tides on the Amundsen Sea ice shelves. Ocean Modelling, 133, 44–55.
Abstract: The representation of tides in regional ocean simulations of the Amundsen Sea enhances ice-shelf melting, with weakest effects for Pine Island and Thwaites (< +10%) and strongest effects for Dotson, Cosgrove and Abbot (> +30%). Tides increase vertical mixing throughout the water column along the continental shelf break. Diurnal tides induce topographically trapped vorticity waves along the continental shelf break, likely underpinning the tidal rectification (residual circulation) simulated in the Dotson-Getz Trough. However, the primary effect by which tides affect ice-shelf melting is the increase of ice/ocean exchanges, rather than the modification of water masses on the continental shelf. Tide-induced velocities strengthen turbulent heat fluxes at the ice/ocean interface, thereby increasing melt rates. Approximately a third of this effect is counterbalanced by the resulting release of cold melt water that reduces melt downstream along the meltwater flow. The relatively weak tide-induced melting underneath Pine Island and Thwaites could be partly related to their particularly thick water column, which limits the presence of quarter wavelength tidal resonance. No sensitivity to the position of Pine Island and Thwaites with respect to the M-2 critical latitude is found. We refine and evaluate existing methodologies to prescribe the effect of tides on ice-shelf melt rates in ocean models that do not explicitely include tidal forcing. The best results are obtained by prescribing spatially-dependent tidal top-boundary-layer velocities in the melt equations. These velocities can be approximated as a linear function of existing barotropic tidal solutions. A correction factor needs to be applied to account for the additional melt-induced circulation associated with tides and to reproduce the relative importance of dynamical and thermodynamical processes.
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Journaux, B., Chauve, T., Montagnat, M., Tommasi, A., Barou, F., Mainprice, D., et al. (2019). Recrystallization processes, microstructure and crystallographic preferred orientation evolution in polycrystalline ice during high-temperature simple shear. Cryosphere, 13(5), 1495–1511.
Abstract: Torsion experiments were performed in polycrystalline ice at high temperature (0.97 T-m) to reproduce the simple shear kinematics that are believed to dominate in ice streams and at the base of fast-flowing glaciers. As clearly documented more than 30 years ago, under simple shear ice develops a two-maxima c axis crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), which evolves rapidly into a single cluster CPO with a c axis perpendicular to the shear plane. Dynamic recrystallization mechanisms that occur in both laboratory conditions and naturally deformed ice are likely candidates to explain the observed CPO evolution. In this study, we use electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and automatic ice texture analyzer (AITA) to characterize the mechanisms accommodating deformation, the stress and strain heterogeneities that form under torsion of an initially isotropic polycrystalline ice sample at high temperature, and the role of dynamic recrystallization in accommodating these heterogeneities. These analyses highlight an interlocking microstructure, which results from heterogeneity-driven serrated grain boundary migration, and sub-grain boundaries composed of dislocations with a [c]-component Burgers vector, indicating that strong local stress heterogeneity develops, in particular, close to grain boundaries, even at high temperature and high finite shear strain. Based on these observations, we propose that nucleation by bulging, assisted by sub-grain boundary formation and followed by grain growth, is a very likely candidate to explain the progressive disappearance of the c axis CPO cluster at low angle to the shear plane and the stability of the one normal to it. We therefore strongly support the development of new polycrystal plasticity models limiting dislocation slip on non-basal slip systems and allowing for efficient accommodation of strain incompatibilities by an association of bulging and formation of sub-grain boundaries with a significant [c] component.
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Kokhanovsky, A., Lamare, M., Danne, O., Brockmann, C., Dumont, M., Picard, G., et al. (2019). Retrieval of Snow Properties from the Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument. Remote Sensing, 11(19).
Abstract: The Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) architecture facilitates Earth Observation data processing. In this work, we present results from a new Snow Processor for SNAP. We also describe physical principles behind the developed snow property retrieval technique based on the analysis of Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3A/B measurements over clean and polluted snow fields. Using OLCI spectral reflectance measurements in the range 400-1020 nm, we derived important snow properties such as spectral and broadband albedo, snow specific surface area, snow extent and grain size on a spatial grid of 300 m. The algorithm also incorporated cloud screening and atmospheric correction procedures over snow surfaces. We present validation results using ground measurements from Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet and the French Alps. We find the spectral albedo retrieved with accuracy of better than 3% on average, making our retrievals sufficient for a variety of applications. Broadband albedo is retrieved with the average accuracy of about 5% over snow. Therefore, the uncertainties of satellite retrievals are close to experimental errors of ground measurements. The retrieved surface grain size shows good agreement with ground observations. Snow specific surface area observations are also consistent with our OLCI retrievals. We present snow albedo and grain size mapping over the inland ice sheet of Greenland for areas including dry snow, melted/melting snow and impurity rich bare ice. The algorithm can be applied to OLCI Sentinel-3 measurements providing an opportunity for creation of long-term snow property records essential for climate monitoring and data assimilation studies-especially in the Arctic region, where we face rapid environmental changes including reduction of snow/ice extent and, therefore, planetary albedo.
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Krinner, G., Beaumet, J., Favier, V., Deque, M., & Brutel-Vuilmet, C. (2019). Empirical Run-Time Bias Correction for Antarctic Regional Climate Projections With a Stretched-Grid AGCM. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 11(1), 64–82.
Abstract: This work presents snapshot simulations of the late 20th and late 21st century Antarctic climate under the RCP8.5 scenario carried out with an empirically bias-corrected global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), forced with bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and run with about 100-km resolution over Antarctica. The bias correction substantially improves the simulated mean late 20th century climate. The simulated atmospheric circulation of the bias-corrected model compares very favorably to the best available AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type climate models. The simulated interannual circulation variability is improved by the bias correction. Depending on the metric, a slight improvement or degradation is found in the simulated variability on synoptic timescales. The simulated climate change over the 21st century is broadly similar in the corrected and uncorrected versions of the atmospheric model, and atmospheric circulation patterns are not geographically “pinned” by the applied bias correction. These results suggest that the method presented here can be used for bias-corrected climate projections. Finally, the authors discuss different possible choices in terms of the place of bias corrections and other intermediate steps in the modeling chain leading from global coupled climate simulations to impact assessment. Plain Language Summary Climate models are necessary and irreplaceable tools for climate projections, but despite continuous improvement, they still have biases, and their spatial resolution is too low to provide actionable climate change information at relevant small spatial scales. We present a method combining bias corrections and high-resolution climate modeling that allows improving climate projections at regional scales.
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Lachaud, C., Marsan, D., Montagnat, M., Weiss, J., Moreau, L., & Gimbert, F. (2019). Micro-Seismic Monitoring of a Shear Fault within a Floating Ice Plate. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, .
Abstract: The deformation of a circular fault in a thin floating ice plate imposed by a slow rotational displacement is investigated. Temporal changes in shear strength, as a proxy for the resistance of the fault as a whole, are monitored by the torque required to impose a constant displacement rate. Micro-seismic monitoring is used to study the relationship between fault average resistance (torque) and micro-ruptures. The size distribution of ruptures follows a power-law scaling characterized by an unusually high exponent (b similar or equal to 3), characteristic of a deformation driven by small ruptures. In strong contrast to the typical brittle dynamics of crustal faults, an 'apparently aseismic' deformation regime is observed in which small undetected seismic ruptures, below the detection level of the monitoring system, control the slip budget. Most (similar or equal to 71%) of the detected ruptures are organized in bursts with highly similar waveforms, suggesting that these ruptures are only a passive by-product of apparently aseismic slip events. The seismic signature of this deformation regime has strong similarities with crustal faulting in settings characterized by high temperature and with non-volcanic tremors.
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Le Clec'H, S., Charbit, S., Quiquet, A., Fettweis, X., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., et al. (2019). Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model. Cryosphere, 13(1), 373–395.
Abstract: In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere-GrIS interactions, such as the temperature-elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet-climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere-ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative one-way coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in fine-scale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB-elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB-elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5% lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3% lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7% (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6% compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes.
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Le Clec'H, S., Quiquet, A., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., & Ritz, C. (2019). A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(6), 2481–2499.
Abstract: Providing reliable projections of the ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise has become one of the main challenges of the ice sheet modelling community. To increase confidence in future projections, a good knowledge of the present-day state of ice flow dynamics, which is critically dependent on basal conditions, is strongly needed. The main difficulty is tied to the scarcity of observations at the ice-bed interface at the scale of the whole ice sheet, resulting in poorly constrained parameterisations in ice sheet models. To circumvent this drawback, inverse modelling approaches can be developed to infer initial conditions for ice sheet models that best reproduce available data. Most often such approaches allow for a good representation of the mean present-day state of the ice sheet but are accompanied with unphysical trends. Here, we present an initialisation method for the Greenland ice sheet using the thermo-mechanical hybrid GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice) ice sheet model. Our approach is based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient that relates the sliding velocities at the ice-bed interface to basal shear stress in unfrozen bed areas. This method relies on an iterative process in which the basal drag is periodically adjusted in such a way that the simulated ice thickness matches the observed one. The quality of the method is assessed by computing the root mean square errors in ice thickness changes. Because the method is based on an adjustment of the sliding velocities only, the results are discussed in terms of varying ice flow enhancement factors that control the deformation rates. We show that this factor has a strong impact on the minimisation of ice thickness errors and has to be chosen as a function of the internal thermal state of the ice sheet (e.g. a low enhancement factor for a warm ice sheet). While the method performance slightly increases with the duration of the minimisation procedure, an ice thickness root mean square error (RMSE) of 50.3m is obtained in only 1320 model years. This highlights a rapid convergence and demonstrates that the method can be used for computationally expensive ice sheet models.
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Lemonnier, F., Madeleine, J., Claud, C., Genthon, C., Duran-Alarcon, C., Palerme, C., et al. (2019). Evaluation of CloudSat snowfall rate profiles by a comparison with in situ micro-rain radar observations in East Antarctica. Cryosphere, 13(3), 943–954.
Abstract: The Antarctic continent is a vast desert and is the coldest and the most unknown area on Earth. It contains the Antarctic ice sheet, the largest continental water reservoir on Earth that could be affected by the current global warming, leading to sea level rise. The only significant supply of ice is through precipitation, which can be observed from the surface and from space. Remote-sensing observations of the coastal regions and the inner continent using CloudSat radar give an estimated rate of snowfall but with uncertainties twice as large as each single measured value, whereas climate models give a range from half to twice the space-time-averaged observations. The aim of this study is the evaluation of the vertical precipitation rate profiles of CloudSat radar by comparison with two surface-based micro-rain radars (MRRs), located at the coastal French Dumont d'Urville station and at the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station located in the Dronning Maud Land escarpment zone. This in turn leads to a better understanding and reassessment of CloudSat uncertainties. We compared a total of four precipitation events, two per station, when CloudSat overpassed within 10 km of the station and we compared these two different datasets at each vertical level. The correlation between both datasets is near-perfect, even though climatic and geographic conditions are different for the two stations. Using different CloudSat and MRR vertical levels, we obtain 10 km space-scale and short-timescale (a few seconds) CloudSat uncertainties from -13 % up to +22 %. This confirms the robustness of the CloudSat retrievals of snowfall over Antarctica above the blind zone and justifies further analyses of this dataset.
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Lipovsky, B., Meyer, C., Zoet, L., Mccarthy, C., Hansen, D., Rempel, A., et al. (2019). Glacier sliding, seismicity and sediment entrainment. Annals Of Glaciology, 60(79), 182–192.
Abstract: The evolution of glaciers and ice sheets depends on processes in the subglacial environment. Shear seismicity along the ice-bed interface provides a window into these processes. Such seismicity requires a rapid loss of strength that is typically ascribed to rate-weakening friction, i.e., decreasing friction with sliding or sliding rate. Many friction experiments have investigated glacial materials at the temperate conditions typical of fast flowing glacier beds. To our knowledge, however, these studies have all found rate-strengthening friction. Here, we investigate the possibility that rate-weakening rock-on-rock friction between sediments frozen to the bottom of the glacier and the underlying water-saturated sediments or bedrock may be responsible for subglacial shear seismicity along temperate glacier beds. We test this 'entrainment-seismicity hypothesis' using targeted laboratory experiments and simple models of glacier sliding, seismicity and sediment entrainment. These models suggest that sediment entrainment may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for the occurrence of basal shear seismicity. We propose that stagnation at the Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica may be caused by the growth of a frozen fringe of entrained sediment in the ice stream margins. Our results suggest that basal shear seismicity may indicate geomorphic activity.
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Lockhoff, M., Zolina, O., Simmer, C., & Schulz, J. (2019). Representation of Precipitation Characteristics and Extremes in Regional Reanalyses and Satellite- and Gauge-Based Estimates over Western and Central Europe. Journal Of Hydrometeorology, 20(6), 1123–1145.
Abstract: This paper evaluates several daily precipitation products over western and central Europe, identifies and documents their respective strengths and shortcomings, and relates these to uncertainties associated with each of the products. We analyze one gauge-based, three satellite-based, and two reanalysis-based products using high-density rain gauge observations as reference. First, we assess spatial patterns and frequency distributions using aggregated statistics. Then, we determine the skill of precipitation event detection from these products with a focus on extremes, using temporally and spatially matched pairs of precipitation estimates. The results show that the quality of the datasets largely depends on the region, season, and precipitation characteristic addressed. The satellite and the reanalysis precipitation products are found to have difficulties in accurately representing precipitation frequency with local overestimations of more than 40%, which occur mostly in dry regions (all products) as well as along coastlines and over cold/frozen surfaces (satellite-based products). The frequency distributions of wet-day intensities are generally well reproduced by all products. Concerning the frequency distributions of wet-spell durations, the satellite-based products are found to have clear deficiencies for maritime-influenced precipitation regimes. Moreover, the analysis of the detection of extreme precipitation events reveals that none of the non-station-based datasets shows skill at the shortest temporal and spatial scales (1 day, 0.25 degrees), but at and above the 3-day and 1.25 degrees scale the products start to exhibit skill over large parts of the domain. Added value compared to coarser-resolution global benchmark products is found both for reanalysis and satellite-based products.
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Macelloni, G., Leduc-Leballeur, M., Montomoli, F., Brogioni, M., Ritz, C., & Picard, G. (2019). On the retrieval of internal temperature of Antarctica Ice Sheet by using SMOS observations. Remote Sensing Of Environment, 233.
Abstract: Internal temperature is an essential parameter for understanding ice sheet dynamics. Glaciological models provide estimations of temperature profiles over Antarctica and few boreholes are also available, but, at present, no measurement exists at the scale of the whole continent. The analysis of passive L-band observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite shows that, thanks to the high penetration depth (i.e. up to 1500 m), it is possible to infer information on in depth glaciological properties of the ice sheet including temperature. In this study, the temperature profile is retrieved from SMOS observations using jointly glaciological and emission models. The developed methodology is valid in the inner part of Antarctica where the ice sheet is almost stable (i.e. its velocity is limited to 10 m yr(-1)). This analysis points out that in several cases, differences are observed between retrieved temperature profiles and those predicted by glaciological models. In particular, some geophysical parameters, namely the geothermal heat flux and the mean annual accumulation, need to be modified with respect to their prior values in order to simulate SMOS brightness temperatures. Results also clearly show that the reliability of the retrieved profile in depth decreases with increasing ice thickness due to the limited penetration of microwaves in the ice. The obtained results prove the capability of L band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave sensors for investigating the internal temperature of the ice-sheet.
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Marsan, D., Weiss, J., Moreau, L., Gimbert, F., Doble, M., Larose, E., et al. (2019). Characterizing horizontally-polarized shear and infragravity vibrational modes in the Arctic sea ice cover using correlation methods. Journal Of The Acoustical Society Of America, 145(3), 1600–1608.
Abstract: The deployment of three drifting seismic stations on the Arctic sea ice during the winter of 2014-2015 with station inter-spacing between 30 and 80 km enables the characterization of the coherent seismic wavefield at these scales through the use of array methods. Two distinct vibrational modes are observed, corresponding to the fast and non-dispersive horizontally-polarized shear (SH) mode and the slow and dispersive flexural, infragravity mode (ice swell). The excitation of these two modes is not synchronous. The activation of the infragravity mode is linked to the arrival of energetic, dispersive wavetrains that can be readily seen on individual spectrograms, and that, as previous studies have shown, are likely to have their origins in distant storms. In contrast, the SH mode is excited at other time intervals and cannot be isolated on the recording of single stations due to the broadband and emergent nature of these wavetrains; given the horizontal polarization of these waves, the authors hypothesize that SH waves are caused by episodes of rapid SH deformation along major leads located outside the station network. The existence of horizontally-polarized waves propagating over long distances opens the possibility of monitoring ice deformation at the scale of the Arctic basin with unprecedented time resolution. (C) 2019 Acoustical Society of America.
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Maussion, F., Butenko, A., Champollion, N., Dusch, M., Eis, J., Fourteau, K., et al. (2019). The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(3), 909–931.
Abstract: Despite their importance for sea-level rise, seasonal water availability, and as a source of geohazards, mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world. The modeling chain comprises data downloading tools (glacier outlines, topography, climate, validation data), a preprocessing module, a mass-balance model, a distributed ice thickness estimation model, and an ice-flow model. The monthly mass balance is obtained from gridded climate data and a temperature index melt model. To our knowledge, OGGM is the first global model to explicitly simulate glacier dynamics: the model relies on the shallow-ice approximation to compute the depth-integrated flux of ice along multiple connected flow lines. In this paper, we describe and illustrate each processing step by applying the model to a selection of glaciers before running global simulations under idealized climate forcings. Even without an in-depth calibration, the model shows very realistic behavior. We are able to reproduce earlier estimates of global glacier volume by varying the ice dynamical parameters within a range of plausible values. At the same time, the increased complexity of OGGM compared to other prevalent global glacier models comes at a reasonable computational cost: several dozen glaciers can be simulated on a personal computer, whereas global simulations realized in a supercomputing environment take up to a few hours per century. Thanks to the modular framework, modules of various complexity can be added to the code base, which allows for new kinds of model intercomparison studies in a controlled environment. Future developments will add new physical processes to the model as well as automated calibration tools. Extensions or alternative parameterizations can be easily added by the community thanks to comprehensive documentation. OGGM spans a wide range of applications, from ice-climate interaction studies at millennial timescales to estimates of the contribution of glaciers to past and future sea-level change. It has the potential to become a self-sustained community-driven model for global and regional glacier evolution.
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Milillo, P., Rignot, E., Rizzoli, P., Scheuchl, B., Mouginot, J., Bueso-Bello, J., et al. (2019). Heterogeneous retreat and ice melt of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. Science Advances, 5(1).
Abstract: The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, have undergone acceleration and grounding line retreat over the past few decades that may yield an irreversible mass loss. Using a constellation of satellites, we detect the evolution of ice velocity, ice thinning, and grounding line retreat of Thwaites Glacier from 1992 to 2017. The results reveal a complex pattern of retreat and icemelt, with sectors retreating at 0.8 km/year and floating icemelting at 200m/year, while others retreat at 0.3 km/year with icemelting 10 times slower. We interpret the results in terms of buoyancy/slope-driven seawater intrusion along preferential channels at tidal frequencies leading to more efficient melt in newly formed cavities. Such complexities in ice-ocean interaction are not currently represented in coupled ice sheet/ocean models.
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Millan, R., Rignot, E., Rivera, A., Martineau, V., Mouginot, J., Zamora, R., et al. (2019). Ice Thickness and Bed Elevation of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(12), 6626–6635.
Abstract: The Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields are the largest ice masses in the Southern Hemisphere outside Antarctica, but their ice volume and bed topography are poorly known. Here, we combine airborne gravity data collected in 2012 and 2016, with radar data from the Warm Ice Experiment Sounder and Centro de Estudios Cientificos's to map bed elevation and ice thickness in great detail. We perform a 3-D inversion of the gravity data constrained by radar-derived thickness and fjord bathymetry to infer bed elevation at 500-m spacing, with a precision of about 60 m. We detect deep glacial valleys with ice thickness exceeding 1,400 m and sectors below sea level on the western branch of Glaciar Pio XI, Occidental, between San Rafael and Colonia, and near Fitz Roy. We calculate an ice volume of 4,756 +/- 923km(3) for Northern Patagonia Icefield and Southern Patagonia Icefield, or 40 times the volume of glaciers in the European Alps. Plain Language Summary Traditional techniques of radar depth sounding fail to resolve thick, temperate ice masses due to poor penetration of the radar signals into snow and ice and extensive scattering due to water content. We combine sparse airborne radar sounding and bathymetry data with novel high-resolution, high-precision airborne gravity data to infer the bed topography of the Patagonia Icefields of South America. The results reveal the full range of deep ice thickness on the plateau, portions of the icefields grounded below sea level, and the total volume content of the Patagonia Icefields. The results are critical to constrain the details of the past, present, and future evolution of this glaciated region in a warmer climate.
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Morel, X., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Krinner, G., Lund, M., Hansen, B., et al. (2019). A New Process-Based Soil Methane Scheme: Evaluation Over Arctic Field Sixes With one ISBA Land Surface model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 11(1), 293–326.
Abstract: Permafrost soils and arctic wetlands methane emissions represent an important challenge for modeling the future climate. Here we present a process-based model designed to correctly represent the main thermal, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes related to these emissions for general land surface modeling. We propose a new multilayer soil carbon and gas module within the Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) land-surface model (LSM). This module represents carbon pools, vertical carbon dynamics, and both oxic and anoxic organic matter decomposition. It also represents the soil gas processes for CH4, CO2, and O-2 through the soil column. We base CH4 production and oxydation on an O-2 control instead of the classical water table level strata approach used in state-of-the-art soil CH4 models. We propose a new parametrization of CH4 oxydation using recent field experiments and use an explicit O-2 limitation for soil carbon decomposition. Soil gas transport is computed explicitly, using a revisited formulation of plant-mediated transport, a new representation of gas bulk diffusivity in porous media closer to experimental observations, and an innovative advection term for ebullition. We evaluate this advanced model on three climatically distinct sites : two in Greenland (Nuuk and Zackenberg) and one in Siberia (Chokurdakh). The model realistically reproduces methane and carbon dioxide emissions from both permafrosted and nonpermafrosted sites. The evolution and vertical characteristics of the underground processes leading to these fluxes are consistent with current knowledge. Results also show that physics is the main driver of methane fluxes, and the main source of variability appears to be the water table depth.
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Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjork, A., Van Den Broeke, M., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., et al. (2019). Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 116(19), 9239–9244.
Abstract: We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a comprehensive survey of thickness, surface elevation, velocity, and surface mass balance (SMB) of 260 glaciers from 1972 to 2018. We calculate mass discharge, D, into the ocean directly for 107 glaciers (85% of D) and indirectly for 110 glaciers (15%) using velocity-scaled reference fluxes. The decadal mass balance switched from a mass gain of +47 +/- 21 Gt/y in 1972-1980 to a loss of 51 +/- 17 Gt/y in 1980-1990. The mass loss increased from 41 +/- 17 Gt/y in 1990-2000, to 187 +/- 17 Gt/y in 2000-2010, to 286 +/- 20 Gt/y in 2010-2018, or sixfold since the 1980s, or 80 +/- 6 Gt/y per decade, on average. The acceleration in mass loss switched from positive in 2000-2010 to negative in 2010-2018 due to a series of cold summers, which illustrates the difficulty of extrapolating short records into longer-term trends. Cumulated since 1972, the largest contributions to global sea level rise are from northwest (4.4 +/- 0.2 mm), southeast (3.0 +/- 0.3 mm), and central west (2.0 +/- 0.2 mm) Greenland, with a total 13.7 +/- 1.1 mm for the ice sheet. The mass loss is controlled at 66 +/- 8% by glacier dynamics (9.1 mm) and 34 +/- 8% by SMB (4.6 mm). Even in years of high SMB, enhanced glacier discharge has remained sufficiently high above equilibrium to maintain an annual mass loss every year since 1998.
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Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., & Scheuchl, B. (2019). Continent-Wide, Interferometric SAR Phase, Mapping of Antarctic Ice Velocity. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 9710–9718.
Abstract: Surface ice velocity is a fundamental characteristic of glaciers and ice sheets that quantifies the transport of ice. Changes in ice dynamics have a major impact on ice sheet mass balance and its contribution to sea level rise. Prior comprehensive mappings employed speckle and feature tracking techniques, optimized for fast-flow areas, with precision of 2-5 m/year, hence limiting our ability to describe ice flow in the slow interior. We present a vector map of ice velocity using the interferometric phase from multiple satellite synthetic aperture radars resulting in 10 times higher precision in speed (20 cm/year) and direction (5 degrees) over 80% of Antarctica. Precision mapping over areas of slow motion (<1 m/year) improves from 20 to 93%, which helps better constrain drainage boundaries, improve mass balance assessment, evaluate regional atmospheric climate models, reconstruct ice thickness, and inform ice sheet numerical models. Plain Language Summary We present a new map of Antarctic ice velocity that is 10 times more precise than prior maps and reveals ice motion at a high precision over 80% of the continent versus 20% in the past. The ice motion vector map provides novel constrains on interior ice motion and its connection with the glaciers and ice stream that control the stability and mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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Orsolini, Y., Wegmann, M., Dutra, E., Liu, B., Balsamo, G., Yang, K., et al. (2019). Evaluation of snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in global reanalyses using in situ and satellite remote sensing observations. Cryosphere, 13(8), 2221–2239.
Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, often referred to as the Third Pole, is the world's highest plateau and exerts a considerable influence on regional and global climate. The state of the snowpack over the TP is a major research focus due to its great impact on the headwaters of a dozen major Asian rivers. While many studies have attempted to validate atmospheric reanalyses over the TP area in terms of temperature or precipitation, there have been – remarkably no studies aimed at systematically comparing the snow depth or snow cover in global reanalyses with satellite and in situ data. Yet, snow in reanalyses provides critical surface information for forecast systems from the medium to sub-seasonal timescales. Here, snow depth and snow cover from four recent global reanalysis products, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), are inter-compared over the TP region. The reanalyses are evaluated against a set of 33 in situ station observations, as well as against the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow cover and a satellite microwave snow depth dataset. The high temporal correlation coefficient (0.78) between the IMS snow cover and the in situ observations provides confidence in the station data despite the relative paucity of in situ measurement sites and the harsh operating conditions. While several reanalyses show a systematic overestimation of the snow depth or snow cover, the reanalyses that assimilate local in situ observations or IMS snow cover are better capable of representing the shallow, transient snowpack over the TP region. The latter point is clearly demonstrated by examining the family of reanalyses from the ECMWF, of which only the older ERA-Interim assimilated IMS snow cover at high altitudes, while ERA5 did not consider IMS snow cover for high altitudes. We further tested the sensitivity of the ERA5-Land model in offline experiments, assessing the impact of blown snow sublimation, snow cover to snow depth conversion and, more importantly, excessive snowfall. These results suggest that excessive snowfall might be the primary factor for the large overestimation of snow depth and cover in ERA5 reanalysis. Pending a solution for this common model precipitation bias over the Himalayas and the TP, future snow reanalyses that optimally combine the use of satellite snow cover and in situ snow depth observations in the assimilation and analysis cycles have the potential to improve medium-range to sub-seasonal forecasts for water resources applications.
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Palerme, C., Claud, C., Wood, N., L'Ecuyer, T., & Genthon, C. (2019). How Does Ground Clutter Affect CloudSat Snowfall Retrievals Over Ice Sheets? Ieee Geoscience And Remote Sensing Letters, 16(3), 342–346.
Abstract: CloudSat has provided the first spaceborne snowfall observations in polar regions. Nevertheless, CloudSat retrievals may be affected by ground clutter even if the snowfall rate at the surface is estimated from the reflectivity measured at about 1200 m above land/ice surface. In this study, the impact of ground clutter contamination on CloudSat snowfall retrievals over the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is investigated. Our results suggest that ground clutter affects CloudSat snowfall observations over some areas, particularly over complex terrain such as mountain ranges and fjords. Over these areas, the snowfall rates deduced from CloudSat observations can be, therefore, significantly overestimated. This has implications when developing snowfall climatologies from CloudSat products.
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Person, R., Aumont, O., Madec, G., Vancoppenolle, M., Bopp, L., & Merino, N. (2019). Sensitivity of ocean biogeochemistry to the iron supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet explored with a biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 16(18), 3583–3603.
Abstract: Iron (Fe) delivery by the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) through ice shelf and iceberg melting enhances primary productivity in the largely iron-limited Southern Ocean (SO). To explore this fertilization capacity, we implement a simple representation of the AIS iron source in the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We evaluate the response of Fe, surface chlorophyll, primary production, and carbon (C) export to the magnitude and hypothesized vertical distributions of the AIS Fe fluxes. Surface Fe and chlorophyll concentrations are increased up to 24% and 12 %, respectively, over the whole SO. The AIS Fe delivery is found to have a relatively modest impact on SO primary production and C export, which are increased by 0.063 +/- 0.036 PgC yr(-1) and 0.028 +/- 0.016, respectively. However, in highly fertilized areas, primary production and C export can be increased by up to 30% and 42 %, respectively. Icebergs are predicted to have a much larger impact on Fe, surface chlorophyll, and primary productivity than ice shelves in the SO. The response of surface Fe and chlorophyll is maximum in the Atlantic sector, northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, and along the East Antarctic coast. The iceberg Fe delivery below the mixed layer may, depending on its assumed vertical distribution, fuel a non-negligible subsurface reservoir of Fe. The AIS Fe supply is effective all year round. The seasonal variations of the iceberg Fe fluxes have regional impacts that are small for annual mean primary productivity and C export at the scale of the SO.
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Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Caneill, R., Lefebvre, E., & Lamare, M. (2019). Observation of the process of snow accumulation on the Antarctic Plateau by time lapse laser scanning. Cryosphere, 13(7), 1983–1999.
Abstract: Snow accumulation is the main positive component of the mass balance in Antarctica. In contrast to the major efforts deployed to estimate its overall value on a continental scale – to assess the contribution of the ice sheet to sea level rise – knowledge about the accumulation process itself is relatively poor, although many complex phenomena occur between snowfall and the definitive settling of the snow particles on the snowpack. Here we exploit a dataset of near-daily surface elevation maps recorded over 3 years at Dome C using an automatic laser scanner sampling 40-100 m(2) in area. We find that the averaged accumulation is relatively regular over the 3 years at a rate of + 8.7 cm yr(-1). Despite this overall regularity, the surface changes very frequently (every 3 d on average) due to snow erosion and heterogeneous snow deposition that we call accumulation by “patches”. Most of these patches (60 %-85 %) are ephemeral but can survive a few weeks before being eroded. As a result, the surface is continuously rough (6-8 cm root-meansquare height) featuring meter-scale dunes aligned along the wind and larger, decameter-scale undulations. Additionally, we deduce the age of the snow present at a given time on the surface from elevation time series and find that snow age spans over more than a year. Some of the patches ultimately settle, leading to a heterogeneous internal structure which reflects the surface heterogeneity, with many snowfall events missing at a given point, whilst many others are overrepresented. These findings have important consequences for several research topics including surface mass balance, surface energy budget, photochemistry, snowpack evolution, and the interpretation of the signals archived in ice cores.
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Protin, M., Schimmelpfennig, I., Mugnier, J., Ravanel, L., Le Roy, M., Deline, P., et al. (2019). Climatic reconstruction for the Younger Dryas/Early Holocene transition and the Little Ice Age based on paleo-extents of Argentiere glacier (French Alps). Quaternary Science Reviews, 221.
Abstract: Investigation of Holocene extents of mountain glaciers along with the related naturally-driven climate conditions helps improve our understanding of glacier sensitivity to ongoing climate change. Here, we present the first Holocene glacial chronology in the Mont-Blanc massif (Argentiere glacier) in the French Alps, based on 25 in situ-produced cosmogenic Be-10 dates of moraines and glacial bedrocks. The obtained ages from mapped sequences of moraines at three locations reveal that the glacier retreated from its Lateglacial extent and oscillated several times between similar to 11.7 ka and similar to 10.4 ka, i.e. during the Younger Dryas/Early Holocene (YD/EH) transition, before substantially retreating at similar to 10.4 ka. Climate conditions corresponding to the past extents of Argentiere glacier during the YD/EH transition (similar to 11 ka) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) were modelled with two different approaches: by determining summer temperature differences from reconstructed ELA-rises and by using a Positive Degree Day (PDD) mass-balance model. The ELA-rise reconstructions yield a possible range of temperatures for the YD/EH transition that were lower by between 3.0 and 4.8 degrees C compared to the year 2008, depending on the choice of the ELA sensitivity to temperature. The results from the PDD model indicate temperatures lower by similar to 3.6-5.5 degrees C during the YD/EH transition than during the 1979-2002 period. For the LIA, our findings highlight the role of local precipitation changes, superimposed on the dominant temperature signal, in the detailed evolution of the glacier. Overall, this study highlights the challenge that remains in accurately inferring paleoclimate conditions from past glacier extents. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Qiu, C., Zhu, D., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., Peng, S., Krinner, G., et al. (2019). Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(7), 2961–2982.
Abstract: The importance of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle has been recognized, especially for long-term changes. Yet, the complex interactions between climate and peatland hydrology, carbon storage, and area dynamics make it challenging to represent these systems in land surface models. This study describes how peatlands are included as an independent sub-grid hydrological soil unit (HSU) in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. The peatland soil column in this tile is characterized by multilayered vertical water and carbon transport and peat-specific hydrological properties. The cost-efficient version of TOPMODEL and the scheme of peatland initiation and development from the DYPTOP model are implemented and adjusted to simulate spatial and temporal dynamics of peatland. The model is tested across a range of northern peatland sites and for gridded simulations over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30 degrees N). Simulated northern peatland area (3.9 million km(2)), peat carbon stock (463 Pg C), and peat depth are generally consistent with observed estimates of peatland area (3.4-4.0 million km2), peat carbon (270-540 Pg C), and data compilations of peat core depths. Our results show that both net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) of northern peatlands increased over the past century in response to CO2 and climate change. NPP increased more rapidly than HR, and thus net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibited a positive trend, contributing a cumulative carbon storage of 11.13 PgC since 1901, most of it being realized after the 1950s.
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Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Van Wessem, M., & Morlighem, M. (2019). Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 116(4), 1095–1103.
Abstract: We use updated drainage inventory, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to calculate the grounding line ice discharge of 176 basins draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1979 to 2017. We compare the results with a surface mass balance model to deduce the ice sheet mass balance. The total mass loss increased from 40 +/- 9 Gt/y in 1979-1990 to 50 +/- 14 Gt/y in 1989-2000, 166 +/- 18 Gt/y in 1999-2009, and 252 +/- 26 Gt/y in 2009-2017. In 2009-2017, the mass loss was dominated by the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea sectors, in West Antarctica (159 +/- 8 Gt/y), Wilkes Land, in East Antarctica (51 +/- 13 Gt/y), and West and Northeast Peninsula (42 +/- 5 Gt/y). The contribution to sea-level rise from Antarctica averaged 3.6 +/- 0.5 mm per decade with a cumulative 14.0 +/- 2.0 mm since 1979, including 6.9 +/- 0.6 mm from West Antarctica, 4.4 +/- 0.9 mm from East Antarctica, and 2.5 +/- 0.4 mm from the Peninsula (i.e., East Antarctica is a major participant in the mass loss). During the entire period, the mass loss concentrated in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface, circumpolar deep water (CDW), that is, consistent with enhanced polar westerlies pushing CDW toward Antarctica to melt its floating ice shelves, destabilize the glaciers, and raise sea level.
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Saletti, D., Georges, D., Gouy, V., Montagnat, M., & Forquin, P. (2019). A study of the mechanical response of polycrystalline ice subjected to dynamic tension loading using the spalling test technique. International Journal Of Impact Engineering, 132.
Abstract: Polycrystalline ice has been extensively investigated during the last decades regarding its mechanical behaviour for quasi-static loadings. Conversely, only few studies can be found on its dynamic behaviour and scientists suffer from a lack of experimental observation to develop relevant modelling at high strain-rate ranges. Dynamic experiments have already been conducted in compression mode using Hopkinson bar set-up. Regarding tension, experimental observations and measurements are scarce. The literature gives only approximated strength values. The knowledge of the latter is essential to design structures that may experience ice impact. The present study aims at providing the first reproducible experimental data of the tensile strength of polycrystalline ice subjected to dynamic tensile loading. To do so, a spalling test technique has been used for the first time on ice to apply tensile loading at strain-rates from 41 s(-1) to 271 s(-1). The experimental results show that the tensile strength is sensitive to the applied strain-rate, evolving from 1.9 MPa to 16.3 MPa for the highest applied loading rate.
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Schannwell, C., Drews, R., Ehlers, T., Eisen, O., Mayer, C., & Gillet-Chaulet, F. (2019). Kinematic response of ice-rise divides to changes in ocean and atmosphere forcing. Cryosphere, 13(10), 2673–2691.
Abstract: The majority of Antarctic ice shelves are bounded by grounded ice rises. These ice rises exhibit local flow fields that partially oppose the flow of the surrounding ice shelves. Formation of ice rises is accompanied by a characteristic upward-arching internal stratigraphy (“Raymond arches”), whose geometry can be analysed to infer information about past ice-sheet changes in areas where other archives such as rock outcrops are missing. Here we present an improved modelling framework to study ice-rise evolution using a satellite-velocity calibrated, isothermal, and isotropic 3-D full-Stokes model including grounding-line dynamics at the required mesh resolution (<500 m). This overcomes limitations of previous studies where ice-rise modelling has been restricted to 2-D and excluded the coupling between the ice shelf and ice rise. We apply the model to the Ekstrom Ice Shelf, Antarctica, containing two ice rises. Our simulations investigate the effect of surface mass balance and ocean perturbations onto ice-rise divide position and interpret possible resulting unique Raymond arch geometries. Our results show that changes in the surface mass balance result in immediate and sustained divide migration (> 2.0 m yr(-1)) of up to 3.5 km. In contrast, instantaneous ice-shelf disintegration causes a short-lived and delayed (by 60-100 years) response of smaller magnitude (< 0.75 m yr(-1)). The model tracks migration of a triple junction and synchronous ice-divide migration in both ice rises with similar magnitude but differing rates. The model is suitable for glacial/interglacial simulations on the catchment scale, providing the next step forward to unravel the ice-dynamic history stored in ice rises all around Antarctica.
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Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Brondex, J., et al. (2019). initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6. Cryosphere, 13(5), 1441–1471.
Abstract: Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
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Thomas, J., Stutz, J., Frey, M., Bartels-Rausch, T., Altieri, K., Baladima, F., et al. (2019). Fostering multidisciplinary research on interactions between chemistry, biology, and physics within the coupled cryosphere-atmosphere system. Elementa-Science Of The Anthropocene, 7.
Abstract: The cryosphere, which comprises a large portion of Earth's surface, is rapidly changing as a consequence of global climate change. Ice, snow, and frozen ground in the polar and alpine regions of the planet are known to directly impact atmospheric composition, which for example is observed in the large influence of ice and snow on polar boundary layer chemistry. Atmospheric inputs to the cryosphere, including aerosols, nutrients, and contaminants, are also changing in the anthropocene thus driving cryosphere-atmosphere feedbacks whose understanding is crucial for understanding future climate. Here, we present the Cryosphere and ATmospheric Chemistry initiative (CATCH) which is focused on developing new multidisciplinary research approaches studying interactions of chemistry, biology, and physics within the coupled cryosphere – atmosphere system and their sensitivity to environmental change. We identify four key science areas: (1) micro-scale processes in snow and ice, (2) the coupled cryosphere-atmosphere system, (3) cryospheric change and feedbacks, and (4) improved decisions and stakeholder engagement. To pursue these goals CATCH will foster an international, multidisciplinary research community, shed light on new research needs, support the acquisition of new knowledge, train the next generation of leading scientists, and establish interactions between the science community and society.
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Tignat-Perrier, R., Dommergue, A., Thollot, A., Keuschnig, C., Magand, O., Vogel, T., et al. (2019). Global airborne microbial communities controlled by surrounding landscapes and wind conditions. Scientific Reports, 9.
Abstract: The atmosphere is an important route for transporting and disseminating microorganisms over short and long distances. Understanding how microorganisms are distributed in the atmosphere is critical due to their role in public health, meteorology and atmospheric chemistry. In order to determine the dominant processes that structure airborne microbial communities, we investigated the diversity and abundance of both bacteria and fungi from the PM10 particle size (particulate matter of 10 micrometers or less in diameter) as well as particulate matter chemistry and local meteorological characteristics over time at nine different meteorological stations around the world. The bacterial genera Bacillus and Sphingomonas as well as the fungal species Pseudotaeniolina globaosa and Cladophialophora proteae were the most abundant taxa of the dataset, although their relative abundances varied greatly based on sampling site. Bacterial and fungal concentration was the highest at the high-altitude and semi-arid plateau of Namco (China; 3.56 X 10(6) +/- 3.01 X 10(6) cells/m(3)) and at the high-altitude and vegetated mountain peak Storm-Peak (Colorado, USA; 8.78X 10(4) +/- 6.49 X 10(4) cells/m(3)), respectively. Surrounding ecosystems, especially within a 50 km perimeter of our sampling stations, were the main contributors to the composition of airborne microbial communities. Temporal stability in the composition of airborne microbial communities was mainly explained by the diversity and evenness of the surrounding landscapes and the wind direction variability over time. Airborne microbial communities appear to be the result of large inputs from nearby sources with possible low and diluted inputs from distant sources.
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Turner, J., Phillips, T., Thamban, M., Rahaman, W., Marshall, G., Wille, J., et al. (2019). The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(6), 3502–3511.
Abstract: Antarctic snowfall consists of frequent clear-sky precipitation and heavier falls from intrusions of maritime airmasses associated with amplified planetary waves. We investigate the importance of different precipitation events using the output of the RACMO2 model. Extreme precipitation events consisting of the largest 10% of daily totals are shown to contribute more than 40% of the total annual precipitation across much of the continent, with some areas receiving in excess of 60% of the total from these events. The greatest contribution of extreme precipitation events to the annual total is in the coastal areas and especially on the ice shelves, with the Amery Ice Shelf receiving 50% of its annual precipitation in less than the 10days of heaviest precipitation. For the continent as a whole, 70% of the variance of the annual precipitation is explained by variability in precipitation from extreme precipitation events, with this figure rising to over 90% in some areas. Plain Language Summary The Antarctic ice sheet is extremely important because of its possible contribution to sea level rise and through the climate records than can be reconstructed using chemical signals locked in the ice. The mass of the ice sheet is constantly changing because of the ice gained by snowfall and the loss of ice at the margins via iceberg calving and melt through contact with relatively warm water masses. The amount of snow falling on the Antarctic is highly variable and dependent on the meteorological conditions over the Southern Ocean and the penetration of marine air into the interior. We show that extreme snowfall events, defined at the heaviest 10% of daily precipitation amounts, contribute a high percentage of the annual snowfall and are the main factor controlling the year-to-year variability of snowfall across the continent. This has implications for the reconstruction of past climate records using data from ice cores and the selection of future ice core drilling sites.
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Tuzet, F., Dumont, M., Arnaud, L., Voisin, D., Lamare, M., Larue, F., et al. (2019). Influence of light-absorbing particles on snow spectral irradiance profiles. Cryosphere, 13(8), 2169–2187.
Abstract: Light-absorbing particles (LAPs) such as black carbon or mineral dust are some of the main drivers of snow radiative transfer. Small amounts of LAPs significantly increase snowpack absorption in the visible wavelengths where ice absorption is particularly weak, impacting the surface energy budget of snow-covered areas. However, linking measurements of LAP concentration in snow to their actual radiative impact is a challenging issue which is not fully resolved. In the present paper, we point out a new method based on spectral irradiance profile (SIP) measurements which makes it possible to identify the radiative impact of LAPs on visible light extinction in homogeneous layers of the snowpack. From this impact on light extinction it is possible to infer LAP concentrations present in each layer using radiative transfer theory. This study relies on a unique dataset composed of 26 spectral irradiance profile measurements in the wavelength range 350-950 nm with concomitant profile measurements of snow physical properties and LAP concentrations, collected in the Alps over two snow seasons in winter and spring conditions. For 55 homogeneous snow layers identified in our dataset, the concentrations retrieved from SIP measurements are compared to chemical measurements of LAP concentrations. A good correlation is observed for measured concentrations higher than 5 ng g(-1) (r(2) = 0.81) despite a clear positive bias. The potential causes of this bias are discussed, underlining a strong sensitivity of our method to LAP optical properties and to the relationship between snow microstructure and snow optical properties used in the theory. Additional uncertainties such as artefacts in the measurement technique for SIP and chemical contents along with LAP absorption efficiency may explain part of this bias. In addition, spectral information on LAP absorption can be retrieved from SIP measurements. We show that for layers containing a unique absorber, this absorber can be identified in some cases (e.g. mineral dust vs. black carbon). We also observe an enhancement of light absorption between 350 and 650 nm in the presence of liquid water in the snow-pack, which is discussed but not fully elucidated. A single SIP acquisition lasts approximately 1 min and is hence much faster than collecting a profile of chemical measurements. With the recent advances in modelling LAP-snow interactions, our method could become an attractive alternative to estimate vertical profiles of LAP concentrations in snow.
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Van Dalum, C., Van De Berg, W., Libois, Q., Picard, G., & Van Den Broeke, M. (2019). A module to convert spectral to narrowband snow albedo for use in climate models: SNOWBAL v1.2. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(12), 5157–5175.
Abstract: Snow albedo schemes in regional climate models often lack a sophisticated radiation penetration scheme and generally compute only a broadband albedo. Here, we present the Spectral-to-NarrOWBand ALbedo module (SNOWBAL, version 1.2) to couple effectively a spectral albedo model with a narrowband radiation scheme. Specifically, the Two-streAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow model (TARTES) is coupled with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), cycle 33R1, atmospheric radiation scheme based on the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, which is embedded in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2). This coupling allows to explicitly account for the effect of clouds, water vapor, snow impurities and snow metamorphism on albedo. Firstly, we present a narrowband albedo method to project the spectral albedos of TARTES onto the 14 spectral bands of the IFS shortwave radiation scheme using a representative wavelength (RW) for each band. Using TARTES and spectral downwelling surface irradiance derived with the DIScrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer atmospheric model, we show that RWs primarily depend on the solar zenith angle (SZA), cloud content and water vapor. Secondly, we compare the TARTES narrowband albedo, using offline RACMO2 results for south Greenland, with the broadband albedo parameterizations of Gardner and Sharp (2010), currently implemented in RACMO2, and the multi-layered parameterization of Kuipers Munneke et al. (2011, PKM). The actual absence of radiation penetration in RACMO2 leads on average to a higher albedo compared with TARTES narrowband albedo. Furthermore, large differences between the TARTES narrowband albedo and PKM and RACMO2 are observed for high SZA and clear-sky conditions, and after melt events when the snowpack is very inhomogeneous. This highlights the importance of accounting for spectral albedo and radiation penetration to simulate the energy budget of the Greenland ice sheet.
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Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallee, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C., & Jomelli, V. (2019). Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E). Climate Dynamics, 53(9-10), 5909–5925.
Abstract: We assess the ability of the regional circulation model MAR to represent the recent negative surface mass balance (SMB) observed over the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E) and evaluate the uncertainties in SMB projections until the end of the century. The MAR model forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis shows a good agreement with meteorological observations at Kerguelen, particularly after slight adjustment of the forcing fields (+ 10% humidity, + 0.8 degrees C, all year round) to improve precipitation occurrence and intensity. The modeled SMB and surface energy balance (SEB) are also successfully evaluated with observations, and spatial distributions are explained as being largely driven by the elevation gradient and by the strong west to east foehn effect occurring on the ice cap. We select five general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) by evaluating their ability to represent temperature and humidity in the southern mid-latitudes over 1980-1999 with respect to ERA-Interim and use them to force the MAR model. These simulations fail to replicate SMB observations even when outputs from the best CMIP5 model (ACCESS1-3) are used as forcing because all GCMs fail in accurately reproducing the circulation changes observed at Kerguelen since the mid-1970s. Global models chosen to represent extreme values of SMB drivers also fail in producing extreme values of SMB, suggesting that more rigorous modeling of present and future circulation changes with GCMs is still needed to accurately assess future changes of the cryosphere in this area.
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Zhang, T., Wang, T., Krinner, G., Wang, X., Gasser, T., Peng, S., et al. (2019). The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Science Advances, 5(3), eaau8932.
Abstract: Substantial progress has been made in understanding how Eurasian snow cover variabilities affect the Indian summer monsoon, but the snow-monsoon relationship in a warming atmosphere remains controversial. Using long-term observational snow and rainfall data (1967-2015), we identified that the widely recognized inverse relationship of central Eurasian spring snow cover with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has disappeared since 1990. The apparent loss of this negative correlation is mainly due to the central Eurasian spring snow cover no longer regulating the summer mid-tropospheric temperature over the Iranian Plateau and surroundings, and hence the land-ocean thermal contrast after 1990. A reduced lagged snow-hydrological effect, resulting from a warming-induced decline in spring snow cover, constitutes the possible mechanism for the breakdown of the snow-air temperature connection after 1990. Our results suggest that, in a changing climate, Eurasian spring snow cover may not be a faithful predictor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
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Zhu, D., Ciais, P., Krinner, G., Maignan, F., Puig Jornet, A., & Hugelius, G. (2019). Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes. Nature Communications, 10, 3172.
Abstract: Permafrost warming and potential soil carbon (SOC) release after thawing may amplify climate change, yet model estimates of present-day and future permafrost extent vary widely, partly due to uncertainties in simulated soil temperature. Here, we derive thermal diffusivity, a key parameter in the soil thermal regime, from depth-specific measurements of monthly soil temperature at about 200 sites in the high latitude regions. We find that, among the tested soil properties including SOC, soil texture, bulk density, and soil moisture, SOC is the dominant factor controlling the variability of diffusivity among sites. Analysis of the CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the parameterization of thermal diffusivity drives the differences in simulated present-day permafrost extent among these models. The strong SOC-thermics coupling is crucial for projecting future permafrost dynamics, since the response of soil temperature and permafrost area to a rising air temperature would be impacted by potential changes in SOC.
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Barrere, M., Domine, F., Belke-Brea, M., & Sarrazin, D. (2018). Snowmelt Events in Autumn Can Reduce or Cancel the Soil Warming Effect of Snow-Vegetation Interactions in the Arctic. Journal Of Climate, 31(23), 9507–9518.
Abstract: The warming-induced growth of vegetation in the Arctic is responsible for various climate feedbacks. Snow-vegetation interactions are currently thought to increase the snow-insulating capacity in the Arctic and thus to limit soil winter cooling. Here, we focus on autumn and early winter processes to evaluate the impact of the presence of erect shrubs and small trees on soil temperature and freezing. We use snow height and thermal conductivity data monitored near Umiujaq, a low-Arctic site in northern Quebec, Canada (56 degrees N, 76 degrees W), to estimate the snow thermal insulance in different vegetation covers. We furthermore conducted a field campaign in autumn 2015. Results show that the occurrence of melting at the beginning of the snow season counteracted the soil warming effect of snow-vegetation interactions. Refrozen layers on the surface prevented wind drift and the preferential accumulation of snow in shrubs or trees. Snowmelt was more intense in high vegetation covers, where the formation of refrozen layers of high thermal conductivity at the base of the snowpack facilitated the release of soil heat, accelerating its cooling. Consequently, the soil was not necessarily the warmest under high vegetation covers as long as melting events occurred. We conclude that under conditions where melting events become more frequent in autumn, as expected under climate warming, conditions become more favorable to maintain a negative feedback among the growth of erect vegetation, snow, and soil temperature in the Arctic, rather than a positive feedback as described under colder climates.
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Biette, M., Jomelli, V., Favier, V., Chenet, M., Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., et al. (2018). Temperature estimation at the beginning of the last millennium in western Greenland: preliminary results from the application of a degree-day glaciological model on the Lyngmarksbrceen glacier. Geomorphologie-Relief Processus Environnement, 24(1), 31–41.
Abstract: The last millennium is defined as a “stable” climatic period with anomalies such as the Little Ice Age (LIA:similar to 1450 AD to 1850 AD), a period marked by low temperatures and associated with a glacier advance. Also the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA:similar to 950 AD to 1250 AD), considered as a period at least as warm as nowadays and associated with glacier retreat in the northern hemisphere. However, several studies have shown that glacial advances have occurred during the MCA period in the Baffin Land and western Greenland, in contradiction with hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions. In this study we propose temperature conditions for the last millennium determined from a recent study on the glacial fluctuations of the Lyngmarksbrceen glacier and the application of an empirical positive degree-day model (PDD) constrained by the outputs of the regional climate MAR atmospheric model. This simulation was conducted on the Lyngmarksbrceen glacier, which shows an original succession of nested moraines dated from the last millennium. The results show that the most likely scenarios are based on air temperatures in the range of -1.3 degrees C to -1.6 degrees C lower during the MCA than at the end of the 20th century if we consider a variation of about +/- 10% in precipitation. Sensitivity tests are then made on different parameters of the glaciological model to better constrain the uncertainty of the temperature estimations.
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Boncori, J. P. M., Andersen, M. L., Dall, J., Kusk, A., Kamstra, M., Andersen, S. B., et al. (2018). Intercomparison and Validation of SAR-Based Ice Velocity Measurement Techniques within the Greenland Ice Sheet CCI Project. Remote Sensing, 10(6).
Abstract: Ice velocity is one of the products associated with the Ice Sheets Essential Climate Variable. This paper describes the intercomparison and validation of ice-velocity measurements carried out by several international research groups within the European Space Agency Greenland Ice Sheet Climate Change Initiative project, based on space-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The goal of this activity was to survey the best SAR-based measurement and error characterization approaches currently in practice. To this end, four experiments were carried out, related to different processing techniques and scenarios, namely differential SAR interferometry, multi aperture SAR interferometry and offset-tracking of incoherent as well as of partially-coherent data. For each task, participants were provided with common datasets covering areas located on the Greenland ice-sheet margin and asked to provide mean velocity maps, quality characterization and a description of processing algorithms and parameters. The results were then intercompared and validated against GPS data, revealing in several cases significant differences in terms of coverage and accuracy. The algorithmic steps and parameters influencing the coverage, accuracy and spatial resolution of the measurements are discussed in detail for each technique, as well as the consistency between quality parameters and validation results. This allows several recommendations to be formulated, in particular concerning procedures which can reduce the impact of analyst decisions, and which are often found to be the cause of sub-optimal algorithm performance.
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Bondzio, J. H., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., Wood, M. H., & Mouginot, J. (2018). Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbrae's Present and Future Mass Loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45(23), 12912–12921.
Abstract: Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to Jakobshavn Isbrae, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law, and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 to 2018 by forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about 5.1 mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting. Plain Language Summary Projections of future sea level rise are important planning information for coastal communities and ecosystems. Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make the projections of the contributions of outlet glaciers and ice sheets challenging. Jakobshavn Isbrae in West Greenland is the world's fastest glacier, which retreated for more than 20 km and contributed alone more than 0.1 mm per year to sea level rise after its floating ice tongue broke up at the turn of this millennium. We use a novel technique to calibrate model simulations of Jakobshavn Isbrae using a record of observations in order to (a) understand the causes triggering its recent retreat and (b) produce weighted estimates of the glacier's future contribution to sea level rise. Our analysis shows that the glacier behavior is largely controlled by the oceanic thermal forcing and that its future evolution will strongly depend on the sustained intrusion of warm waters in its fjord. We project that the glacier will contribute an average of 5.1 mm to global sea level rise until 2100 under present-day climatic forcing.
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Bull, C. Y. S., Kiss, A. E., van Sebille, E., Jourdain, N. C., & England, M. H. (2018). The Role of the New Zealand Plateau in the Tasman Sea Circulation and Separation of the East Australian Current. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 123(2), 1457–1470.
Abstract: The East Australian Current (EAC) plays a major role in regional climate, circulation, and ecosystems, but predicting future changes is hampered by limited understanding of the factors controlling EAC separation. While there has been speculation that the presence of New Zealand may be important for the EAC separation, the prevailing view is that the time-mean partial separation is set by the ocean's response to gradients in the wind stress curl. This study focuses on the role of New Zealand, and the associated adjacent bathymetry, in the partial separation of the EAC and ocean circulation in the Tasman Sea. Here utilizing an eddy-permitting ocean model (NEMO), we find that the complete removal of the New Zealand plateau leads to a smaller fraction of EAC transport heading east and more heading south, with the mean separation latitude shifting >100 km southward. To examine the underlying dynamics, we remove New Zealand with two linear models: the Sverdrup/Godfrey Island Rule and NEMO in linear mode. We find that linear processes and deep bathymetry play a major role in the mean Tasman Front position, whereas nonlinear processes are crucial for the extent of the EAC retroflection. Contrary to past work, we find that meridional gradients in the basin-wide wind stress curl are not the sole factor determining the latitude of EAC separation. We suggest that the Tasman Front location is set by either the maximum meridional gradient in the wind stress curl or the northern tip of New Zealand, whichever is furthest north.
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Burr, A., Ballot, C., Lhuissier, P., Martinerie, P., Martin, C. L., & Philip, A. (2018). Pore morphology of polar firn around closure revealed by X-ray tomography. Cryosphere, 12(7), 2481–2500.
Abstract: Understanding the slow densification process of polar firn into ice is essential in order to constrain the age difference between the ice matrix and entrapped gases. The progressive microstructure evolution of the firn column with depth leads to pore closure and gas entrapment. Air transport models in the firn usually include a closed porosity profile based on available data. Pycnometry or melting-refreezing techniques have been used to obtain the ratio of closed to total porosity and air content in closed pores, respectively. X-ray-computed tomography is complementary to these methods, as it enables one to obtain the full pore network in 3-D. This study takes advantage of this nondestructive technique to discuss the morphological evolution of pores on four different Antarctic sites. The computation of refined geometrical parameters for the very cold polar sites Dome C and Lock In (the two Antarctic plateau sites studied here) provides new information that could be used in further studies. The comparison of these two sites shows a more tortuous pore network at Lock In than at Dome C, which should result in older gas ages in deep firn at Lock In. A comprehensive estimation of the different errors related to X-ray tomography and to the sample variability has been performed. The procedure described here may be used as a guideline for further experimental characterization of firn samples. We show that the closed-to-total porosity ratio, which is classically used for the detection of pore closure, is strongly affected by the sample size, the image reconstruction, and spatial heterogeneities. In this work, we introduce an alternative parameter, the connectivity index, which is practically independent of sample size and image acquisition conditions, and that accurately predicts the close-off depth and density. Its strength also lies in its simple computation, without any assumption of the pore status (open or close). The close-off prediction is obtained for Dome C and Lock In, without any further numerical simulations on images (e.g., by permeability or diffusivity calculations).
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Carbone, F., Bruno, A. G., Naccarato, A., De Simone, F., Gencarelli, C. N., Sprovieri, F., et al. (2018). The Superstatistical Nature and Interoccurrence Time of Atmospheric Mercury Concentration Fluctuations. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(2), 764–774.
Abstract: The probability density function (PDF) of the time intervals between subsequent extreme events in atmospheric Hg-0 concentration data series from different latitudes has been investigated. The Hg-0 dynamic possesses a long-term memory autocorrelation function. Above a fixed threshold Q in the data, the PDFs of the interoccurrence time of the Hg-0 data are well described by a Tsallis q-exponential function. This PDF behavior has been explained in the framework of superstatistics, where the competition between multiple mesoscopic processes affects the macroscopic dynamics. An extensive parameter , encompassing all possible fluctuations related to mesoscopic phenomena, has been identified. It follows a (2) distribution, indicative of the superstatistical nature of the overall process. Shuffling the data series destroys the long-term memory, the distributions become independent of Q, and the PDFs collapse on to the same exponential distribution. The possible central role of atmospheric turbulence on extreme events in the Hg-0 data is highlighted.
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Casado, M., Landais, A., Picard, G., Munch, T., Laepple, T., Stenni, B., et al. (2018). Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores. Cryosphere, 12(5), 1745–1766.
Abstract: The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.
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Cavitte, M. G. P., Parrenin, F., Ritz, C., Young, D. A., Van Liefferinge, B., Blankenship, D. D., et al. (2018). Accumulation patterns around Dome C, East Antarctica, in the last 73 kyr. Cryosphere, 12(4), 1401–1414.
Abstract: We reconstruct the pattern of surface accumulation in the region around Dome C, East Antarctica, since the last glacial. We use a set of 18 isochrones spanning all observable depths of the ice column, interpreted from various ice-penetrating radar surveys and a 1-D ice flow model to invert for accumulation rates in the region. The shallowest four isochrones are then used to calculate paleoaccumulation rates between isochrone pairs using a 1-D assumption where horizontal advection is negligible in the time interval of each layer. We observe that the large-scale (100s km) surface accumulation gradient is spatially stable through the last 73 kyr, which reflects current modeled and observed precipitation gradients in the region. We also observe small-scale (10 s km) accumulation variations linked to snow redistribution at the surface, due to changes in its slope and curvature in the prevailing wind direction that remain spatially stationary since the last glacial.
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Chambers, S., Preunkert, S., Weller, R., Hong, S., Humphries, R., Tositti, L., et al. (2018). Characterizing Atmospheric Transport Pathways to Antarctica and the Remote Southern Ocean Using Radon-222. Frontiers In Earth Science, 6.
Abstract: We discuss remote terrestrial influences on boundary layer air over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and the mechanisms by which they arise, using atmospheric radon observations as a proxy. Our primary motivation was to enhance the scientific community's ability to understand and quantify the potential effects of pollution, nutrient or pollen transport from distant land masses to these remote, sparsely instrumented regions. Seasonal radon characteristics are discussed at 6 stations (Macquarie Island, King Sejong, Neumayer, Dumont d'Urville, Jang Bogo and Dome Concordia) using 1-4 years of continuous observations. Context is provided for differences observed between these sites by Southern Ocean radon transects between 45 and 67 degrees S made by the Research Vessel Investigator. Synoptic transport of continental air within the marine boundary layer (MBL) dominated radon seasonal cycles in the mid-Southern Ocean site (Macquarie Island). MBL synoptic transport, tropospheric injection, and Antarctic outflow all contributed to the seasonal cycle at the sub-Antarctic site (King Sejong). Tropospheric subsidence and injection events delivered terrestrially influenced air to the Southern Ocean MBL in the vicinity of the circumpolar trough (or “Polar Front”). Katabatic outflow events from Antarctica were observed to modify trace gas and aerosol characteristics of the MBL 100-200 km off the coast. Radon seasonal cycles at coastal Antarctic sites were dominated by a combination of local radon sources in summer and subsidence of terrestrially influenced tropospheric air, whereas those on the Antarctic Plateau were primarily controlled by tropospheric subsidence. Separate characterization of long-term marine and katabatic flow air masses at Dumont d'Urville revealed monthly mean differences in summer of up to 5 ppbv in ozone and 0.3 ng m(-3) in gaseous elemental mercury. These differences were largely attributed to chemical processes on the Antarctic Plateau. A comparison of our observations with some Antarctic radon simulations by global climate models over the past two decades indicated that: (i) some models overestimate synoptic transport to Antarctica in the MBL, (ii) the seasonality of the Antarctic ice sheet needs to be better represented in models, (iii) coastal Antarctic radon sources need to be taken into account, and (iv) the underestimation of radon in subsiding tropospheric air needs to be investigated.
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Chernokulsky, A. V., Kozlov, F. A., Zolina, O. G., Bulygina, O. N., & Semenov, V. A. (2018). Climatology of Precipitation of Different Genesis in Northern Eurasia. Russian Meteorology And Hydrology, 43(7), 425–435.
Abstract: A method for discriminating among different types of precipitation is presented. The method is based on surface observations of precipitation, present and past weather, and the morphological types of clouds. The climatology of showery, nonshowery, and drizzle precipitation in Northern Eurasia is studied using the data of 529 Russian weather stations for the period of 1966-2014. Showery precipitation dominates in Northern Eurasia. In general, showery precipitation has greater temporal (monthly and diurnal) and spatial variability than nonshowery precipitation. The majority of showers are registered in summer (the maximum is in July), whereas the high est total monthly nonshowery precipitation is observed in autumn (the maximum is in October). The daily intensity values of showery and nonshowery precipitation are generally close, the maximum intensity is recorded in July-August. For three-hour in tervals, the shower in tensity is by 1.1-1.5 times higher. The drawbacks of the presented methodology are discussed.
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Cohen, D., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Haeberli, W., Machguth, H., & Fischer, U. H. (2018). Numerical reconstructions of the flow and basal conditions of the Rhine glacier, European Central Alps, at the Last Glacial Maximum. Cryosphere, 12(8), 2515–2544.
Abstract: At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Rhine glacier in the Swiss Alps covered an area of about 16 000 km(2). As part of an integrative study about the safety of repositories for radioactive waste under ice age conditions in Switzerland, we modeled the Rhine glacier using a thermodynamically coupled three-dimensional, transient Stokes flow and heat transport model down to a horizontal resolution of about 500 m. The accumulation and ablation gradients that roughly reproduced the geomorphic reconstructions of glacial extent and ice thickness suggested extremely cold (T-July similar to 0 degrees C at the glacier terminus) and dry (similar to 10% to 20% of today's precipitation) climatic conditions. Forcing the numerical simulations with warmer and wetter conditions that better matched LGM climate proxy records yielded a glacier on average 500 to 700m thicker than geomorphic reconstructions. Mass balance gradients also controlled ice velocities, fluxes, and sliding speeds. These gradients, however, had only a small effect on basal conditions. All simulations indicated that basal ice reached the pressure melting point over much of the Rhine and Linth piedmont lobes, and also in the glacial valleys that fed these lobes. Only the outer margin of the lobes, bedrock highs beneath the lobes, and Alpine valleys at high elevations in the accumulation zone remained cold based. The Rhine glacier was thus polythermal. Sliding speed estimated with a linear sliding rule ranged from 20 to 100ma(-1) in the lobes and 50 to 250ma(-1) in Alpine valleys. Velocity ratios (sliding to surface speeds) were > 80% in lobes and similar to 60% in valleys. Basal shear stress was very low in the lobes (0.03-0.1MPa) and much higher in Alpine valleys (> 0.2MPa). In these valleys, viscous strain heating was a dominant source of heat, particularly when shear rates in the ice increased due to flow constrictions, confluences, or flow past large bedrock obstacles, contributing locally up to several watts per square meter but on average 0.03 to 0.2Wm(-2). Basal friction acted as a heat source at the bed of about 0.02Wm(-2), 4 to 6 times less than the geothermal heat flow which is locally high (up to 0.12Wm(-2)). In the lobes, despite low surface slopes and low basal shear stresses, sliding dictated main fluxes of ice, which closely followed bedrock topography: ice was channeled in between bedrock highs along troughs, some of which coincided with glacially eroded overdeepenings. These sliding conditions may have favored glacial erosion by abrasion and quarrying. Our results confirmed general earlier findings but provided more insights into the detailed flow and basal conditions of the Rhine glacier at the LGM. Our model results suggested that the trimline could have been buried by a significant thickness of cold ice. These findings have significant implications for interpreting trimlines in the Alps and for our understanding of ice-climate interactions.
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Collao-Barrios, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Favier, V., Casassa, G., Berthier, E., Dussaillant, I., et al. (2018). Ice flow modelling to constrain the surface mass balance and ice discharge of San Rafael Glacier, Northern Patagonia Icefield. Journal Of Glaciology, 64(246), 568–582.
Abstract: We simulate the ice dynamics of the San Rafael Glacier (SRG) in the Northern Patagonia Icefield (46.7 degrees S, 73.5 degrees W), using glacier geometry obtained by airborne gravity measurements. The full-Stokes ice flow model (Elmer/Ice) is initialized using an inverse method to infer the basal friction coefficient from a satellite-derived surface velocity mosaic. The high surface velocities (7.6 km a(-1)) near the glacier front are explained by low basal shear stresses (<25 kPa). The modelling results suggest that 98% of the surface velocities are due to basal sliding in the fast-flowing glacier tongue (>1 km a(-1)). We force the model using different surface mass-balance scenarios taken or adapted from previous studies and geodetic elevation changes between 2000 and 2012. Our results suggest that previous estimates of average surface mass balance over the entire glacier (B.) were likely too high, mainly due to an overestimation in the accumulation area. We propose that most of SRG imbalance is due to the large ice discharge (-0.83 +/- 0.08 Gt a(-1)) and a slightly positive B. (0.08 +/- 0.06 Gt a(-1)). The committed mass-loss estimate over the next century is -0.34 +/- 0.03 Gt a(-1). This study demonstrates that surface mass-balance estimates and glacier wastage projections can be improved using a physically based ice flow model.
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Collins, M., Minobe, S., Barreiro, M., Bordoni, S., Kaspi, Y., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., et al. (2018). Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change, 8(2), 101–108.
Abstract: Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.
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Cook, K., Andermann, C., Gimbert, F., Adhikari, B., & Hovius, N. (2018). Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya. Science, 362(6410), 53–57.
Abstract: Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by catastrophic floods that are caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams; however, the dynamics and long-term impacts of such floods remain poorly understood. We present a comprehensive set of observations that capture the July 2016 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River of Nepal. Seismic records of the flood provide new insights into GLOF mechanics and their ability to mobilize large boulders that otherwise prevent channel erosion. Because of this boulder mobilization, GLOF impacts far exceed those of the annual summer monsoon, and GLOFs may dominate fluvial erosion and channel-hillslope coupling many tens of kilometers downstream of glaciated areas. Long-term valley evolution in these regions may therefore be driven by GLOF frequency and magnitude, rather than by precipitation.
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De Fleurian, B., Werder, M., Beyer, S., Brinkerhoff, D., Delaney, I., Dow, C., et al. (2018). SHMIP The subglacial hydrology model intercomparison Project. Journal Of Glaciology, 64(248), 897–916.
Abstract: Subglacial hydrology plays a key role in many glaciological processes, including ice dynamics via the modulation of basal sliding. Owing to the lack of an overarching theory, however, a variety of model approximations exist to represent the subglacial drainage system. The Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) provides a set of synthetic experiments to compare existing and future models. We present the results from 13 participating models with a focus on effective pressure and discharge. For many applications (e.g. steady states and annual variations, low input scenarios) a simple model, such as an inefficient-system-only model, a flowline or lumped model, or a porous-layer model provides results comparable to those of more complex models. However, when studying short term (e.g. diurnal) variations of the water pressure, the use of a two-dimensional model incorporating physical representations of both efficient and inefficient drainage systems yields results that are significantly different from those of simpler models and should be preferentially applied. The results also emphasise the role of water storage in the response of water pressure to transient recharge. Finally, we find that the localisation of moulins has a limited impact except in regions of sparse moulin density.
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Delaygue, G., Brönnimann, S., Jones, P. D., Blanchet, J., & Schwander, M. (2018). Reconstruction of Lamb weather type series back to the eighteenth century. Climate Dynamics, .
Abstract: The Lamb weather type series is a subjective catalogue of daily atmospheric patterns and flow directions over the British Isles, covering the period 1861-1996. Based on synoptic maps, meteorologists have empirically classified surface pressure patterns over this area, which is a key area for the progression of Atlantic storm tracks towards Europe. We apply this classification to a set of daily pressure series from a few stations from western Europe, in order to reconstruct and to extend this daily weather type series back to 1781. We describe a statistical framework which provides, for each day, the weather types consistent enough with the observed pressure pattern, and their respective probability. Overall, this technique can correctly reconstruct almost 75% of the Lamb daily types, when simplified to the seven main weather types. The weather type series are described and compared to the original series for the winter season only. Since the low frequency variability of synoptic conditions is directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we derive from the weather type series an NAO index for winter. An interesting feature is a larger multidecadal variability during the nineteenth century than during the twentieth century.
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Dolant, C., Montpetit, B., Langlois, A., Brucker, L., Zolina, O., Johnson, C. A., et al. (2018). Assessment of the Barren Ground Caribou Die-off During Winter 2015-2016 Using Passive Microwave Observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(10), 4908–4916.
Abstract: In summer 2016, more than 50 Arctic Barren Ground caribous were found dead on Prince Charles Island (Nunavut, Canada), a species recently classified as threatened. Neither predator nor sign of diseases was observed and reported. The main hypothesis is that caribous were not able to access food due to a very dense snow surface, created by a strong storm system in spring. Using satellite microwave data, a significant increase in brightness temperature polarization ratio at 19 and 37GHz was observed in spring 2016 (60% higher than previous two winter seasons). Based on microwave radiative transfer simulations, such anomaly can be explained with a very dense snow surface. This is consistent with the succession of storms and strong winds highlighted in ERA-Interim over Prince Charles Island in spring 2016. Using several sources of data, this study shows that changes in snow conditions explain the caribou die-off due to restricted foraging. Plain Language Summary In this paper, it is discussed that the snow conditions could be caused by the massive die-off events of the caribou herd on Price Charles Island, Nunavut. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data, it is possible to find the reason of surface snow condition changes. This change creates an anomaly in signal, in particularly using different parameters derived from passive microwave data (brightness temperature) from SSM/I and SSMI/S sensors. Moreover, modeling of brightness temperature using radiative transfer model in passive microwaves domain, allowed to determine new thresholds for high density layer detection, may have an ecological consequence (food do not accessible for several ungulates).
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Domine, F., Belke-Brea, M., Sarrazin, D., Arnaud, L., Barrere, M., & Poirier, M. (2018). Soil moisture, wind speed and depth hoar formation in the Arctic snowpack. Journal Of Glaciology, 64(248), 990–1002.
Abstract: Basal depth hoar that forms in Arctic snowpacks often has a low thermal conductivity, strongly contributing to the snowpack thermal insulance and impacting the permafrost thermal regime. At Ward Hunt Island (Canadian high Arctic, 83 degrees 05'N, 74 degrees 07'W) almost no depth hoar was observed in spring 2016 despite favorable thermal conditions. We hypothesize that depth hoar formation was impeded by the combination of two factors (1) strong winds in fall that formed hard dense wind slabs where water vapor transport was slow and (2) low soil moisture that led to rapid ground cooling with no zero-curtain period, which reduced soil temperature and the temperature gradient in the snowpack. Comparisons with detailed data from the subsequent winter at Ward Hunt and from Bylot Island (73 degrees 09'N, 80 degrees 00'W) and with data from Barrow and Alert indicate that both high wind speeds after snow onset and low soil moisture are necessary to prevent Arctic depth hoar formation. The role of convection to form depth hoar is discussed. A simple preliminary strategy to parameterize depth hoar thermal conductivity in snow schemes is proposed based on wind speed and soil moisture. Finally, warming-induced vegetation growth and soil moisture increase should reduce depth hoar thermal conductivity, potentially affecting permafrost temperature.
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Flanner, M. G., Huang, X., Chen, X., & Krinner, G. (2018). Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(4), 1997–2004.
Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.
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Furst, J., Navarro, F., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Huss, M., Moholdt, G., Fettweis, X., et al. (2018). The Ice-Free Topography of Svalbard. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(21), 11760–11769.
Abstract: We present a first version of the Svalbard ice-free topography (SVIFT1.0) using a mass conserving approach for mapping glacier ice thickness. SVIFT1.0 is informed by more than 1 million point measurements, totalling more than 8,700 km of thickness profiles. SVIFT1.0 is publicly available and represents the geometric state around the year 2010. Our estimate for the total ice volume is 6,199 km(3), equivalent to 1.5-cm sea level rise. The thickness map suggests that 13% of the glacierized area is grounded below sea level. A complementary map of error estimates comprises uncertainties in the thickness surveys as well as in other input variables. Aggregated error estimates are used to define a likely ice-volume range of 5,200-7,300 km(3). The ice front thickness of marine-terminating glaciers is a key quantity for ice loss attribution because it controls the potential ice discharge by iceberg calving into the ocean. We find a mean ice front thickness of 135 m for the archipelago (likely range 123-158 m). Plain Language Summary Svalbard is an archipelago in the Arctic, north of Norway, which is comparable in size to the New York metropolitan area. Roughly half of it is covered by glacier ice. Yet to this day, the ice volume stored in the many glaciers on Svalbard is not well known. Many attempts have been made to infer a total volume estimate, but results differ substantially. This surprises because of the long research activity in this area. A large record of more than 1 million thickness measurements exists, making Svalbard an ideal study area for the application of a state-of-the-art mapping approach for glacier ice thickness. The mapping approach computes an ice volume that will raise global sea level by more than half an inch if instantaneously melted. If spread over the metropolitan area, New York would be buried beneath a 100-m ice cover. The asset of this approach is that it provides not only a thickness map for each glacier on the archipelago but also an error map that defines the likely local thickness range. Finally, we provide the first well-informed estimate of the ice front thickness of all marine-terminating glaciers that loose icebergs to the ocean. The archipelago-wide mean ice front cliff is 135 m.
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Gagliardini, O., & Werder, M. (2018). Influence of increasing surface melt over decadal timescales on land-terminating Greenland-type outlet glaciers. Journal Of Glaciology, 64(247), 700–710.
Abstract: Over recent decades, Greenland ice sheet surface melt has shown an increase both in intensity and spatial extent. Part of this water probably reaches the bed and can enhance glacier speed, advecting a larger volume of ice into the ablation area. In the context of a warming climate, this mechanism could contribute to the future rate of thinning and retreat of land-terminating glaciers of Greenland. These changes in ice flow conditions will in turn influence surface crevassing and thus the ability of water to reach the bed at higher elevations. Here, using a coupled basal hydrology and prognostic ice flow model, the evolution of a Greenland-type glacier subject to increasing surface melt is studied over a few decades. For different scenarios of surface melt increase over the next decades, the evolution of crevassed areas and the ability of water to reach the bed is inferred. Our results indicate that the currently observed crevasse distribution is likely to extend further upstream which will allow water to reach the bed at higher elevations. This will lead to an increase in ice flux into the ablation area which, in turn, accelerates the mass loss of land-terminating glaciers.
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Gaillardet, J., Braud, I., Hankard, F., Anquetin, S., Bour, O., Dorfliger, N., et al. (2018). OZCAR: The French Network of Critical Zone Observatories. Vadose Zone Journal, 17(1).
Abstract: The French critical zone initiative, called OZCAR (Observatoires de la Zone Critique-Application et Recherche or Critical Zone Observatories-Application and Research) is a National Research Infrastructure (RI). OZCAR-RI is a network of instrumented sites, bringing together 21 pre-existing research observatories monitoring different compartments of the zone situated between “the rock and the sky,” the Earth's skin or critical zone (CZ), over the long term. These observatories are regionally based and have specific initial scientific questions, monitoring strategies, databases, and modeling activities. The diversity of OZCAR-RI observatories and sites is well representative of the heterogeneity of the CZ and of the scientific communities studying it. Despite this diversity, all OZCAR-RI sites share a main overarching mandate, which is to monitor, understand, and predict (“earthcast”) the fluxes of water and matter of the Earth's near surface and how they will change in response to the “new climatic regime.” The vision for OZCAR strategic development aims at designing an open infrastructure, building a national CZ community able to share a systemic representation of the CZ, and educating a new generation of scientists more apt to tackle the wicked problem of the Anthropocene. OZCAR articulates around: (i) a set of common scientific questions and cross-cutting scientific activities using the wealth of OZCAR-RI observatories, (ii) an ambitious instrumental development program, and (iii) a better interaction between data and models to integrate the different time and spatial scales. Internationally, OZCAR-RI aims at strengthening the CZ community by providing a model of organization for pre-existing observatories and by offering CZ instrumented sites. OZCAR is one of two French mirrors of the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructure (eLTER-ESFRI) project.
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Genthon, C., Berne, A., Grazioli, J., Alarcon, C., Praz, C., & Boudevillain, B. (2018). Precipitation at Dumont d'Urville, Adelie Land, East Antarctica: the APRES3 field campaigns dataset. Earth System Science Data, 10(3), 1605–1612.
Abstract: Compared to the other continents and lands, Antarctica suffers from a severe shortage of in situ observations of precipitation. APRES3 (Antarctic Precipitation, Remote Sensing from Surface and Space) is a program dedicated to improving the observation of Antarctic precipitation, both from the surface and from space, to assess climatologies and evaluate and ameliorate meteorological and climate models. A field measurement campaign was deployed at Dumont d'Urville station at the coast of Adelie Land in Antarctica, with an intensive observation period from November 2015 to February 2016 using X-band and K-band radars, a snow gauge, snowflake cameras and a disdrometer, followed by continuous radar monitoring through 2016 and beyond. Among other results, the observations show that a significant fraction of precipitation sublimates in a dry surface katabatic layer before it reaches and accumulates at the surface, a result derived from profiling radar measurements. While the bulk of the data analyses and scientific results are published in specialized journals, this paper provides a compact description of the dataset now archived in the PANGAEA data repository (https://www.pangaea.de, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.883562) and made open to the scientific community to further its exploitation for Antarctic meteorology and climate research purposes.
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Genthon, C., Forbes, R., Vignon, E., Gettelman, A., & Madeleine, J. (2018). Comment on “Surface Air Relative Humidities Spuriously Exceeding 100% in CMIP5 Model Output and Their Impact on Future Projections” by K. Ruosteenoja et al. (2017). Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(16), 8724–8727. |
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Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T., Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., et al. (2018). Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison. Cryosphere, 12(4), 1433–1460.
Abstract: Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.
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Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Orsi, A., & Werner, M. (2018). Water stable isotope spatio-temporal variability in Antarctica in 1960-2013: observations and simulations from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general circulation model. Climate Of The Past, 14(6), 923–946.
Abstract: Polar ice core water isotope records are commonly used to infer past changes in Antarctic temperature, motivating an improved understanding and quantification of the temporal relationship between delta O-18 and temperature. This can be achieved using simulations performed by atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes. Here, we evaluate the skills of the high-resolution water-isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso (the European Centre Hamburg Model) nudged to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis using simulations covering the period 1960-2013 over the Antarctic continent. We compare model outputs with field data, first with a focus on regional climate variables and second on water stable isotopes, using our updated dataset of water stable isotope measurements from precipitation, snow, and firn-ice core samples. ECHAM5-wiso simulates a large increase in temperature from 1978 to 1979, possibly caused by a discontinuity in the European Reanalyses (ERA) linked to the assimilation of remote sensing data starting in 1979. Although some model-data mismatches are observed, the (precipitation minus evaporation) outputs are found to be realistic products for surface mass balance. A warm model bias over central East Antarctica and a cold model bias over coastal regions explain first-order delta O-18 model biases by too-strong isotopic depletion on coastal areas and underestimated depletion inland. At the second order, despite these biases, ECHAM5-wiso correctly captures the observed spatial patterns of deuterium excess. The results of model-data comparisons for the inter-annual delta O-18 standard deviation differ when using precipitation or ice core data. Further studies should explore the importance of deposition and post-deposition processes affecting ice core signals and not resolved in the model. These results build trust in the use of ECHAM5-wiso outputs to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual delta O-18-temperature relationships. We thus make the first Antarctica-wide synthesis of prior results. First, we show that local spatial or seasonal slopes are not a correct surrogate for inter-annual temporal slopes, leading to the conclusion that the same isotope-temperature slope cannot be applied for the climatic interpretation of Antarctic ice core for all timescales. Finally, we explore the phasing between the seasonal cycles of deuterium excess and delta O-18 as a source of information on changes in moisture sources affecting the delta O-18-temperature relationship. The few available records and ECHAM5-wiso show different phase relationships in coastal, intermediate, and central regions. This work evaluates the use of the ECHAM5-wiso model as a tool for the investigation of water stable isotopes in Antarctic precipitation and calls for extended studies to improve our understanding of such proxies.
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Grilli, R., Triest, J., Chappellaz, J., Calzas, M., Desbois, T., Jansson, P., et al. (2018). Sub-Ocean: Subsea Dissolved Methane Measurements Using an Embedded Laser Spectrometer Technology. Environmental Science & Technology, 52(18), 10543–10551.
Abstract: We present a novel instrument, the Sub-Ocean probe, allowing in situ and continuous measurements of dissolved methane in seawater. It relies on an optical feedback cavity enhanced absorption technique designed for trace gas measurements and coupled to a patent-pending sample extraction method. The considerable advantage of the instrument compared with existing ones lies in its fast response time of the order of 30 s, that makes this probe ideal for fast and continuous 3D-mapping of dissolved methane in water. It could work up to 40 MPa of external pressure, and it provides a large dynamic range, from subnmol of CH4 per liter of seawater to mmol L-1. In this work, we present laboratory calibration of the instrument, intercomparison with standard method and field results on methane detection. The good agreement with the headspace equilibration technique followed by gas-chromatography analysis supports the utility and accuracy of the instrument. A continuous 620-m depth vertical profile in the Mediterranean Sea was obtained within only 10 min, and it indicates background dissolved CH4 values between 1 and 2 nmol L-1 below the pycnocline, similar to previous observations conducted in different ocean settings. It also reveals a methane maximum at around 6 m of depth, that may reflect local production from bacterial transformation of dissolved organic matter.
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Groisman, P., Bulygina, O., Henebry, G., Speranskaya, N., Shiklomanov, A., Chen, Y., et al. (2018). Dryland belt of Northern Eurasia: contemporary environmental changes and their consequences. Environmental Research Letters, 13(11).
Abstract: The dryland belt (DLB) in Northern Eurasia is the largest contiguous dryland on Earth. During the last century, changes here have included land use change (e.g. expansion of croplands and cities), resource extraction (e.g. coal, ores, oil, and gas), rapid institutional shifts (e.g. collapse of the Soviet Union), climatic changes, and natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires, floods, and dust storms). These factors intertwine, overlap, and sometimes mitigate, but can sometimes feedback upon each other to exacerbate their synergistic and cumulative effects. Thus, it is important to properly document each of these external and internal factors and to characterize the structural relationships among them in order to develop better approaches to alleviating negative consequences of these regional environmental changes. This paper addresses the climatic changes observed over the DLB in recent decades and outlines possible links of these changes (both impacts and feedback) with other external and internal factors of contemporary regional environmental changes and human activities within the DLB.
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Guimberteau, M., Zhu, D., Maignan, F., Huang, Y., Yue, C., Dantec-Nedelec, S., et al. (2018). ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(1), 121–163.
Abstract: The high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere are a nexus for the interaction between land surface physical properties and their exchange of carbon and energy with the atmosphere. At these latitudes, two carbon pools of planetary significance-those of the permanently frozen soils (permafrost), and of the great expanse of boreal forest are vulnerable to destabilization in the face of currently observed climatic warming, the speed and intensity of which are expected to increase with time. Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out rel-evant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module. Outputs from ORCHIDEE-MICT, when forced by two climate input datasets, are extensively evaluated against (i) temperature gradients between the atmosphere and deep soils, (ii) the hydrological components comprising the water balance of the largest high-latitude basins, and (iii) CO2 flux and carbon stock observations. The model performance is good with respect to empirical data, despite a simulated excessive plant water stress and a positive land surface temperature bias. In addition, acute model sensitivity to the choice of input forcing data suggests that the calibration of model parameters is strongly forcing-dependent. Overall, we suggest that this new model design is at the forefront of current efforts to reliably estimate future perturbations to the high-latitude terrestrial environment.
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Haseloff, M., Schoof, C., & Gagliardini, O. (2018). The role of subtemperate slip in thermally driven ice stream margin migration. Cryosphere, 12(8), 2545–2568.
Abstract: The amount of ice discharged by an ice stream depends on its width, and the widths of unconfined ice streams such as the Siple Coast ice streams in West Antarctica have been observed to evolve on decadal to centennial timescales. Thermally driven widening of ice streams provides a mechanism for this observed variability through melting of the frozen beds of adjacent ice ridges. This widening is driven by the heat dissipation in the ice stream margin, where strain rates are high, and at the bed of the ice ridge, where sub-temperate sliding is possible. The inflow of cold ice from the neighboring ice ridges impedes ice stream widening. Determining the migration rate of the margin requires resolving conductive and advective heat transfer processes on very small scales in the ice stream margin, and these processes cannot be resolved by large-scale ice sheet models. Here, we exploit the thermal boundary layer structure in the ice stream margin to investigate how the migration rate depends on these different processes. We derive a parameterization of the migration rate in terms of parameters that can be estimated from observations or large-scale model outputs, including the lateral shear stress in the ice stream margin, the ice thickness of the stream, the influx of ice from the ridge, and the bed temperature of the ice ridge. This parameterization will allow the incorporation of ice stream margin migration into large-scale ice sheet models.
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Helmert, J., Sensoy Sorman, A., Alvarado Montero, R., De Michele, C., De Rosnay, P., Dumont, M., et al. (2018). Review of Snow Data Assimilation Methods for Hydrological, Land Surface, Meteorological and Climate Models: Results from a COST HarmoSnow Survey. Geosciences, 8(12).
Abstract: The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404 �HarmoSnow�, entitled, �A European network for a harmonized monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction� (2014-2018) aims to coordinate efforts in Europe to harmonize approaches to validation, and methodologies of snow measurement practices, instrumentation, algorithms and data assimilation (DA) techniques. One of the key objectives of the action was �Advance the application of snow DA in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models and show its benefit for weather and hydrological forecasting as well as other applications.� This paper reviews approaches used for assimilation of snow measurements such as remotely sensed and in situ observations into hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models based on a COST HarmoSnow survey exploring the common practices on the use of snow observation data in different modeling environments. The aim is to assess the current situation and understand the diversity of usage of snow observations in DA, forcing, monitoring, validation, or verification within NWP, hydrology, snow and climate models. Based on the responses from the community to the questionnaire and on literature review the status and requirements for the future evolution of conventional snow observations from national networks and satellite products, for data assimilation and model validation are derived and suggestions are formulated towards standardized and improved usage of snow observation data in snow DA. Results of the conducted survey showed that there is a fit between the snow macro-physical variables required for snow DA and those provided by the measurement networks, instruments, and techniques. Data availability and resources to integrate the data in the model environment are identified as the current barriers and limitations for the use of new or upcoming snow data sources. Broadening resources to integrate enhanced snow data would promote the future plans to make use of them in all model environments.
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Jiskra, M., Sonke, J. E., Obrist, D., Bieser, J., Ebinghaus, R., Myhre, C. L., et al. (2018). A vegetation control on seasonal variations in global atmospheric mercury concentrations. Nature Geoscience, 11(4), 244–+.
Abstract: Anthropogenic mercury emissions are transported through the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) before they are deposited to Earth's surface. Strong seasonality in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere has been explained by two factors: anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions are thought to peak in winter due to higher energy consumption, and atmospheric oxidation rates of Hg(0) are faster in summer. Oxidation-driven Hg(0) seasonality should be equally pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, which is inconsistent with observations of constant year-round Hg(0) levels. Here, we assess the role of Hg(0) uptake by vegetation as an alternative mechanism for driving Hg(0) seasonality. We find that at terrestrial sites in the Northern Hemisphere, Hg(0) co-varies with CO2, which is known to exhibit a minimum in summer when CO2 is assimilated by vegetation. The amplitude of seasonal oscillations in the atmospheric Hg(0) concentration increases with latitude and is larger at inland terrestrial sites than coastal sites. Using satellite data, we find that the photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with Hg(0) levels at individual sites and across continents. We suggest that terrestrial vegetation acts as a global Hg(0) pump, which can contribute to seasonal variations of atmospheric Hg(0), and that decreasing Hg(0) levels in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 20 years can be partly attributed to increased terrestrial net primary production.
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Jomelli, V., Schimmelpfennig, I., Favier, V., Mokadem, F., Landais, A., Rinterknecht, V., et al. (2018). Glacier extent in sub-Antarctic Kerguelen archipelago from MIS 3 period: Evidence from Cl-36 dating. Quaternary Science Reviews, 183, 110–123.
Abstract: Documenting sub-Antarctic glacier variations during the local last glacial maximum is of major interest to better understand their sensitivity to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes in conjunction with Antarctic ice sheet changes. However, data are sparse because evidence of earlier glacier extents is for most sub-Antarctic islands located offshore making their observation complex. Here, we present 22 cosmogenic Cl-36 surface exposure ages obtained from five sites at Kerguelen to document the glacial history. The Cl-36 ages from roche moutonnee surfaces, erratics and boulders collected on moraines span from 41.9 +/- 4.4 ka to 14.3 +/- 1.1 ka. Ice began to retreat on the eastern part of the main island before 41.4 +/- 4.4 ka. Slow deglaciation occurred from similar to 41 to similar to 29 ka. There is no evidence of advances between 29 ka and the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period (similar to 14.5-12.9 ka) period. During the ACR, however, the Bontemps and possibly Belvedere moraines were formed by the advance of a Cook Ice Cap outlet glacier and a local glacier on the Presque Ile Jeanne d'Arc, respectively. This glacier evolution differs partly from that of glaciers in New Zealand and in Patagonia. These asynchronous glacier changes in the sub-Antarctic region are however in agreement with sea surface temperature changes recorded around Antarctica, which suggest differences in the climate evolution of the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic sectors of Antarctica. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Kaab, A., Leinss, S., Gilbert, A., Buhler, Y., Gascoin, S., Evans, S. G., et al. (2018). Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability. Nature Geoscience, 11(2), 114–+.
Abstract: Surges and glacier avalanches are expressions of glacier instability, and among the most dramatic phenomena in the mountain cryosphere. Until now, the catastrophic collapse of a glacier, combining the large volume of surges and mobility of ice avalanches, has been reported only for the 2002 130 x 10(6) m(3) detachment of Kolka Glacier (Caucasus Mountains), which has been considered a globally singular event. Here, we report on the similar detachment of the entire lower parts of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet in July and September 2016, leading to an unprecedented pair of giant low-angle ice avalanches with volumes of 68 +/- 2 x 10(6) m(3) and 83 +/- 2 x 10(6) m(3). On the basis of satellite remote sensing, numerical modelling and field investigations, we find that the twin collapses were caused by climate-and weather-driven external forcing, acting on specific polythermal and soft-bed glacier properties. These factors converged to produce surge-like enhancement of driving stresses and massively reduced basal friction connected to subglacial water and fine-grained bed lithology, to eventually exceed collapse thresholds in resisting forces of the tongues frozen to their bed. Our findings show that large catastrophic instabilities of low-angle glaciers can happen under rare circumstances without historical precedent.
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Kjær, K. H., Larsen, N. K., Binder, T., Bjørk, A. A., Eisen, O., Fahnestock, M. A., et al. (2018). A large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland. Sci Adv, 4(11).
Abstract: We report the discovery of a large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland. From airborne radar surveys, we identify a 31-kilometer-wide, circular bedrock depression beneath up to a kilometer of ice. This depression has an elevated rim that cross-cuts tributary subglacial channels and a subdued central uplift that appears to be actively eroding. From ground investigations of the deglaciated foreland, we identify overprinted structures within Precambrian bedrock along the ice margin that strike tangent to the subglacial rim. Glaciofluvial sediment from the largest river draining the crater contains shocked quartz and other impact-related grains. Geochemical analysis of this sediment indicates that the impactor was a fractionated iron asteroid, which must have been more than a kilometer wide to produce the identified crater. Radiostratigraphy of the ice in the crater shows that the Holocene ice is continuous and conformable, but all deeper and older ice appears to be debris rich or heavily disturbed. The age of this impact crater is presently unknown, but from our geological and geophysical evidence, we conclude that it is unlikely to predate the Pleistocene inception of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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Kokhanovsky, A., Lamare, M., Di Mauro, B., Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Dumont, M., et al. (2018). On the reflectance spectroscopy of snow. Cryosphere, 12(7), 2371–2382.
Abstract: We propose a system of analytical equations to retrieve snow grain size and absorption coefficient of pollutants from snow reflectance or snow albedo measurements in the visible and near-infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, where snow single-scattering albedo is close to 1.0. It is assumed that ice grains and impurities (e.g., dust, black and brown carbon) are externally mixed, and that the snow layer is semi-infinite and vertically and horizontally homogeneous. The influence of close-packing effects on reflected light intensity are assumed to be small and ignored. The system of nonlinear equations is solved analytically under the assumption that impurities have the spectral absorption coefficient, which obey the Angstrom power law, and the impurities influence the registered spectra only in the visible and not in the near infrared (and vice versa for ice grains). The theory is validated using spectral reflectance measurements and albedo of clean and polluted snow at various locations (Antarctica Dome C, European Alps). A technique to derive the snow albedo (plane and spherical) from reflectance measurements at a fixed observation geometry is proposed. The technique also enables the simulation of hyperspectral snow reflectance measurements in the broad spectral range from ultraviolet to the near infrared for a given snow surface if the actual measurements are performed at a restricted number of wavelengths (two to four, depending on the type of snow and the measurement system).
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Krinner, G., & Flanner, M. (2018). Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 115(38), 9462–9466.
Abstract: Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO(2) bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.
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Krinner, G., Derksen, C., Essery, R., Flanner, M., Hagemann, S., Clark, M., et al. (2018). ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(12), 5027–5049.
Abstract: This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local-and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).
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Lac, C., Chaboureau, J. P., Masson, V., Pinty, J. P., Tulet, P., Escobar, J., et al. (2018). Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(5), 1929–1969.
Abstract: This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4. Meso-NH is an atmospheric non hydrostatic research model that is applied to a broad range of resolutions, from synoptic to turbulent scales, and is designed for studies of physics and chemistry. It is a limited-area model employing advanced numerical techniques, including monotonic advection schemes for scalar transport and fourth-order centered or odd-order WENO advection schemes for momentum. The model includes state-of-the-art physics parameter-ization schemes that are important to represent convectivescale phenomena and turbulent eddies, as well as flows at larger scales. In addition, Meso-NH has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling. Here, we present the main innovations to the dynamics and physics of the code since the pioneer paper of Lafore et al. (1998) and provide an overview of recent applications and couplings.
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Lacour, A., Chepfer, H., Miller, N., Shupe, M., Noel, V., Fettweis, X., et al. (2018). How Well Are Clouds Simulated over Greenland in Climate Models? Consequences for the Surface Cloud Radiative Effect over the Ice Sheet. Journal Of Climate, 31(22), 9293–9312.
Abstract: Using lidar and radiative flux observations from space and ground, and a lidar simulator, we evaluate clouds simulated by climate models over the Greenland ice sheet, including predicted cloud cover, cloud fraction profile, cloud opacity, and surface cloud radiative effects. The representation of clouds over Greenland is a central concern for the models because clouds impact ice sheet surface melt. We find that over Greenland, most of the models have insufficient cloud cover during summer. In addition, all models create too few nonopaque, liquid-containing clouds optically thin enough to let direct solar radiation reach the surface (-1% to -3.5% at the ground level). Some models create too few opaque clouds. In most climate models, the cloud properties biases identified over all Greenland also apply at Summit, Greenland, proving the value of the ground observatory in model evaluation. At Summit, climate models underestimate cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the surface, especially in summer. The primary driver of the summer CRE biases compared to observations is the underestimation of the cloud cover in summer (-46% to -21%), which leads to an underestimated longwave radiative warming effect (CRELW = -35.7 to -13.6 W m(-2) compared to the ground observations) and an underestimated shortwave cooling effect (CRESW = +1.5 to +10.5 W m(-2) compared to the ground observations). Overall, the simulated clouds do not radiatively warm the surface as much as observed.
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Largeron, C., Krinner, G., Ciais, P., & Brutel-Vuilmet, C. (2018). Implementing northern peatlands in a global land surface model: description and evaluation in the ORCHIDEE high-latitude version model (ORC-HL-PEAT). Geoscientific Model Development, 11(8), 3279–3297.
Abstract: Widely present in boreal regions, peatlands contain large carbon stocks because of their hydrologic properties and high water content, which makes primary productivity exceed decomposition rates. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing a hydrological representation of northern peatlands. These peatlands are represented as a new plant functional type (PFT) in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation. A prescribed map based on the inventory of Yu et al. (2010) defines peatlands as a fraction of a grid cell represented as a PFT comparable to C3 grasses, with adaptations to reproduce shallow roots and higher photosynthesis stress. The treatment of peatland hydrology differs from that of other vegetation types by the fact that runoff from other soil types is partially directed towards the peatlands (instead of directly to the river network). The evaluation of this implementation was carried out at different spatial and temporal scales, from site evaluation to larger scales such as the watershed scale and the scale of all northern latitudes. The simulated net ecosystem exchanges agree with observations from three FLUXNET sites. Water table positions were generally close to observations, with some exceptions in winter. Compared to other soils, the simulated peat soils have a reduced seasonal variability in water storage. The seasonal cycle of the simulated extent of inundated peatlands is compared to flooded area as estimated from satellite observations. The model is able to represent more than 89.5% of the flooded areas located in peatland areas, where the modelled extent of inundated peatlands reaches 0.83 x 10(6) km(2). However, the extent of peatlands in northern latitudes is too small to substantially impact the large-scale terrestrial water storage north of 45 degrees N. Therefore, the inclusion of peatlands has a weak impact on the simulated river discharge rates in boreal regions.
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Larue, F., Royer, A., De Seve, D., Roy, A., Picard, G., Vionnet, V., et al. (2018). Simulation and Assimilation of Passive Microwave Data Using a Snowpack Model Coupled to a Calibrated Radiative Transfer Model Over Northeastern Canada. Water Resour. Res., 54(7), 4823–4848.
Abstract: Over northern snowmelt-dominated basins, the snow water equivalent (SWE) is of primary interest for hydrological forecasting. This paper evaluates first the performance of a detailed multilayer snowpack model (Crocus), driven by meteorological predictions generated by the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model, for hydrological applications. Simulations were compared to daily snow depth and SWE measurements over Quebec, northeastern Canada (56-45 degrees N), for 2012-2016, highlighting an overestimation of the annual maximum snow depth (35%) and of the annual maximum SWE (16%), which is not accurate enough for hydrological applications. To improve SWE simulations, a chain of models is implemented to simulate and to assimilate passive microwave satellite observations. The snowpack model is coupled to a microwave snow emission model (Dense Media Radiative Transfer-Multilayers model, DMRT-ML), and the comparison of simulated brightness temperatures (T-Bs) with surface-based T-B measurements (at 11, 19 and 37GHz) shows best results when the snow stickiness parameter is set to 0.17 in DMRT-ML. The overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) obtained by the calibrated coupling reaches 27K, significantly better than the RMSE obtained by considering nonsticky spheres in DMRT-ML (43.0K). The relevance of T-B assimilation is tested with synthetic observations to evaluate the information content of each frequency for SWE estimates. The assimilation scheme is a Sequential Importance Resampling Particle filter using an ensemble of perturbed meteorological forcing data. The results show a SWE RMSE reduced by 82% with T-B assimilation compared to without assimilation.
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Le Meur, E., Magand, O., Arnaud, L., Fily, M., Frezzotti, M., Cavitte, M., et al. (2018). Spatial and temporal distributions of surface mass balance between Concordia and Vostok stations, Antarctica, from combined radar and ice core data: first results and detailed error analysis. Cryosphere, 12(5), 1831–1850.
Abstract: Results from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and shallow ice cores carried out during a scientific traverse between Dome Concordia (DC) and Vostok stations are presented in order to infer both spatial and temporal characteristics of snow accumulation over the East Antarctic Plateau. Spatially continuous accumulation rates along the traverse are computed from the identification of three equally spaced radar reflections spanning about the last 600 years. Accurate dating of these internal reflection horizons (IRHs) is obtained from a depth-age relationship derived from volcanic horizons and bomb testing fallouts on a DC ice core and shows a very good consistency when tested against extra ice cores drilled along the radar profile. Accumulation rates are then inferred by accounting for density profiles down to each IRH. For the latter purpose, a careful error analysis showed that using a single and more accurate density profile along a DC core provided more reliable results than trying to include the potential spatial variability in density from extra (but less accurate) ice cores distributed along the profile. The most striking feature is an accumulation pattern that remains constant through time with persistent gradients such as a marked decrease from 26 mm w.e. yr(-1) at DC to 20 mm w.e. yr(-1) at the south-west end of the profile over the last 234 years on average (with a similar decrease from 25 to 19 mm w.e. yr(-1) over the last 592 years). As for the time dependency, despite an overall consistency with similar measurements carried out along the main East Antarctic divides, interpreting possible trends remains difficult. Indeed, error bars in our measurements are still too large to unambiguously infer an apparent time increase in accumulation rate. For the proposed absolute values, maximum margins of error are in the range 4 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 234 years) to 2 mm w.e. yr(-1) (last 592 years), a decrease with depth mainly resulting from the time-averaging when computing accumulation rates.
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Lefeuvre, P. M., Zwinger, T., Jackson, M., Gagliardini, O., Lappegard, G., & Hagen, J. O. (2018). Stress Redistribution Explains Anti-correlated Subglacial Pressure Variations. Frontiers In Earth Science, 5, UNSP 110.
Abstract: We used a finite element model to interpret anti-correlated pressure variations at the base of a glacier to demonstrate the importance of stress redistribution in the basal ice. We first investigated two pairs of load cells installed 20 m apart at the base of the 210 m thick Engabreen glacier in Northern Norway. The load cell data for July 2003 showed that pressurisation of a subglacial channel located over one load cell pair led to anti-correlation in pressure between the two pairs. To investigate the cause of this anti-correlation, we used a full Stokes 3D model of a 210 m thick and 25-200 m wide glacier with a pressurised subglacial channel represented as a pressure boundary condition. The model reproduced the anti-correlated pressure response at the glacier bed and variations in pressure of the same order of magnitude as the load cell observations. The anti-correlation pattern was shown to depend on the bed/surface slope. On a flat bed with laterally constrained cross-section, the resulting bridging effect diverted some of the normal forces acting on the bed to the sides. The anti-correlated pressure variations were then reproduced at a distance > 10-20 m from the channel. In contrast, when the bed was inclined, the channel support of the overlying ice was vertical only, causing a reduction of the normal stress on the bed. With a bed slope of 5 degrees, the anti-correlation occurred within 10 m of the channel. The model thus showed that the effect of stress redistribution can lead to an opposite response in pressure at the same distance from the channel and that anti-correlation in pressure is reproduced without invoking cavity expansion caused by sliding.
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Li, J., Gonzalez, J., Leuschen, C., Harish, A., Gogineni, P., Montagnat, M., et al. (2018). Multi-channel and multi-polarization radar measurements around the NEEM site. Cryosphere, 12(8), 2689–2705.
Abstract: Ice properties inferred from multi-polarization measurements, such as birefringence and crystal orientation fabric (COF), can provide insight into ice strain, viscosity, and ice flow. In 2008, the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) used a ground-based VHF (very high frequency) radar to take multi-channel and multi-polarization measurements around the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) site. The system operated with 30MHz bandwidth at a center frequency of 150 MHz. This paper describes the radar system, antenna configurations, data collection, and processing and analysis of this data set. Within the framework derived from uniaxial ice crystal model, we found that ice birefringence dominates the power variation patterns of co-polarization and cross-polarization measurements in the area of 100 km2 around the ice core site. The phase shift between ordinary and extraordinary waves increases nonlinearly with depth. The ice optic axis lies in planes that are close to the vertical plane and perpendicular or parallel to the ice divide depending on depth. The ice optic axis has an average tilt angle of about 11 : 6 degrees vertically, and its plane may rotate either clockwise or counterclockwise by about 10 degrees across the 100 km(2) area, and at a specific location the plane may rotate slightly counterclockwise as depth increases. Comparisons between the radar observations, simulations, and ice core fabric data are in very good agreement. We calculated the effective colatitude at different depths by using azimuth and colatitude measurements of the c axis of ice crystals. We obtained an average effective c axis tilt angle of 9 : 6 degrees from the vertical axis, very comparable to the average optic axis tilt angle estimated from radar polarization measurements. The comparisons give us confidence in applying this polarimetric radio echo sounding technique to infer profiles of ice fabric in locations where there are no ice core measurements.
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Li, Z., Xia, J., Ahlstrom, A., Rinke, A., Koven, C., Hayes, D., et al. (2018). Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO2 amplification over northern lands. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12).
Abstract: The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern lands (>50 degrees N) since 1960s. However, the correlation between vegetation growth, temperature and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration have become elusive with the slowed increasing trend of vegetation growth and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake since late 1990s. Here, based on in situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records from the Barrow observatory site, we found a slow down in the increasing trend of the atmospheric CO2 amplitude from 1990s to mid 2000s. This phenomenon was associated with the paused decrease in the minimum CO2 concentration ([CO2](min)), which was significantly correlated with the slow down of vegetation greening and growing season length extension. We then showed that both the vegetation greenness and growing-season length were positively correlated with spring but not autumn temperature over the northern lands. Furthermore, such asymmetric dependences of vegetation growth upon spring and autumn temperature cannot be captured by the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models. These findings indicate that the responses of vegetation growth to spring and autumn warming are asymmetric, and highlight the need of improving autumn phenology in the models for predicting seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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Marchand, N., Royer, A., Krinner, G., Roy, A., Langlois, A., & Vargel, C. (2018). Snow-Covered Soil Temperature Retrieval in Canadian Arctic Permafrost Areas, Using a Land Surface Scheme Informed with Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Remote Sensing, 10(11).
Abstract: High-latitude areas are very sensitive to global warming, which has significant impacts on soil temperatures and associated processes governing permafrost evolution. This study aims to improve first-layer soil temperature retrievals during winter. This key surface state variable is strongly affected by snow's geophysical properties and their associated uncertainties (e.g., thermal conductivity) in land surface climate models. We used infrared MODIS land-surface temperatures (LST) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) brightness temperatures (Tb) at 10.7 and 18.7 GHz to constrain the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), driven by meteorological reanalysis data and coupled with a simple radiative transfer model. The Tb polarization ratio (horizontal/vertical) at 10.7 GHz was selected to improve snowpack density, which is linked to the thermal conductivity representation in the model. Referencing meteorological station soil temperature measurements, we validated the approach at four different sites in the North American tundra over a period of up to 8 years. Results show that the proposed method improves simulations of the soil temperature under snow (Tg) by 64% when using remote sensing (RS) data to constrain the model, compared to model outputs without satellite data information. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated Tg under the snow ranges from 1.8 to 3.5 K when using RS data. Improved temporal monitoring of the soil thermal state, along with changes in snow properties, will improve our understanding of the various processes governing soil biological, hydrological, and permafrost evolution.
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McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G. S., et al. (2018). Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 115(15), 3882–3887.
Abstract: We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km(2) for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km(2) for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10(15)-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.
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Merino, N., Jourdain, N. C., Le Sommer, J., Goosse, H., Mathiot, P., & Durand, G. (2018). Impact of increasing antarctic glacial freshwater release on regional sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Ocean Modelling, 121, 76–89.
Abstract: The sensitivity of Antarctic sea-ice to increasing glacial freshwater release into the Southern Ocean is studied in a series of 31-year ocean/sea-ice/iceberg model simulations. Glaciological estimates of ice-shelf melting and iceberg calving are used to better constrain the spatial distribution and magnitude of freshwater forcing around Antarctica. Two scenarios of glacial freshwater forcing have been designed to account for a decadal perturbation in glacial freshwater release to the Southern Ocean. For the first time, this perturbation explicitly takes into consideration the spatial distribution of changes in the volume of Antarctic ice shelves, which is found to be a key component of changes in freshwater release. In addition, glacial freshwater-induced changes in sea ice are compared to typical changes induced by the decadal evolution of atmospheric states. Our results show that, in general, the increase in glacial freshwater release increases Antarctic sea ice extent. But the response is opposite in some regions like the coastal Amundsen Sea, implying that distinct physical mechanisms are involved in the response. We also show that changes in freshwater forcing may induce large changes in sea-ice thickness, explaining about one half of the total change due to the combination of atmospheric and freshwater changes. The regional contrasts in our results suggest a need for improving the representation of freshwater sources and their evolution in climate models.
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Mouginot, J., Bjork, A., Millan, R., Scheuchl, B., & Rignot, E. (2018). Insights on the Surge Behavior of Storstrommen and L. Bistrup Brae, Northeast Greenland, Over the Last Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(20), 11197–11205.
Abstract: We use a multisensor approach to assess the surge history over the past century of Storstrommen and L. Bistrup Brae, which drain the Northeast Ice Stream, Greenland. Storstrommen surged around 1910 and Bistrup in 1913 and during the 1950s. Between 1978 and 1982, the speed of Storstrommen peaked at 3 km/year during an active surge phase that lasted 10 years and the glacier has stayed in a quiescent phase since. Bistrup started to surge in 1988, peaked in 1993, and stopped in 1996. Both glaciers displayed a slow surge initiation and termination. Since 1993, ice builds up in the upper part of Storstrommen at a 1 m/year, its lower part is thinning at its ablation rate of 1.4 m/year, and the grounding line has retreated by 10 km between 1992 and 2017, or 400 m/year. At these current rates, we project that Storstrommen will meet presurge conditions in 2027-2030. Plain Language Summary Storstrommen and L. Bistrup Brae in east Greenland probably are the largest surge-type glaciers in the world. Based on the history of frontal positions, it was suggested a surge periodicity on the order of 70 years. In this study, we use a multisensor approach combining historical data sets with the modern remote sensing techniques to reassess the surge history of Storstrommen and document the unknown behavior of L. Bistrup Brae. We found that, between 1978 and 1982, the speed of Storstrommen peaked at more than 3 km/year during an active surge phase that lasted 10 years and the glacier has stayed in a quiescent phase since. L. Bistrup Brae started to surge in 1988, peaked in 1993, and stopped in 1996. Since 1993, ice builds up in upper part of Storstrommen at a 1 m/year, its lower part is thinning at its ablation rate of 1.4 m/year, and the grounding line has retreated by 10 km between 1992 and 2017. At these current rates of mass accumulation upstream and retreat downstream, we project that Storstrommen will meet presurge conditions in 2027-2030.
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Passalacqua, O., Cavitte, M., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Parrenin, F., Ritz, C., et al. (2018). Brief communication: Candidate sites of 1.5 Myr old ice 37 km southwest of the Dome C summit, East Antarctica. Cryosphere, 12(6), 2167–2174.
Abstract: The search for ice as old as 1.5 Myr requires the identification of places that maximize our chances to retrieve old, well-resolved, undisturbed and datable ice. One of these locations is very likely southwest of the Dome C summit, where elevated bedrock makes the ice thin enough to limit basal melting. A 3-D ice flow simulation is used to calculate five selection criteria, which together delineate the areas with the most appropriate glaciological properties. These selected areas (a few square kilometers) lie on the flanks of a bedrock high, where a balance is found between risks of basal melting, stratigraphic disturbances and sufficient age resolution. Within these areas, several sites of potential 1.5 Myr old ice are proposed, situated on local bedrock summits or ridges. The trajectories of the ice particles towards these locations are short, and the ice flows over a smoothly undulating bedrock. These sites will help to choose where new high-resolution ground radar surveys should be conducted in upcoming field seasons.
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Passalacqua, O., Picard, G., Ritz, C., Leduc-Leballeur, M., Quiquet, A., Larue, F., et al. (2018). Retrieval of the Absorption Coefficient of L-Band Radiation in Antarctica From SMOS Observations. Remote Sensing, 10(12).
Abstract: Microwave emissions at the L-band (1-2 GHz) in Antarctica are characterized by a significant contribution of ice layers at great depth, from hundreds to a thousand meters. Brightness temperatures, thus, could provide the internal temperature of the ice sheet. However, there are two difficulties to overcome in developing an accurate retrieval algorithm. First, it is difficult to know precisely from which depths waves are emanating because the ice-absorption coefficient is uncertain at the L-band, despite several formulations proposed in the literature over the past few decades. Second, emissivity potentially varies in Antarctica due to remnant scattering in firn (or ice), even at the Brewster angle, and despite the low frequency, limiting the accuracy of the estimate of the physical temperature. Here, we present a retrieval method able to disentangle the absorption and emissivity effects from brightness temperature over the whole continent. We exploit the fact that scattering and absorption are controlled by different physical parameters and phenomena that can be considered as statistically independent. This independence provides a constraint to the retrieval method, that is then well-conditioned and solvable. Our results show that (1) the retrieved absorption agrees with the permittivity model proposed by Matzler et al. (2006), and (2) emissivity shows significant variations, up to 6% over the continent, which are correlated with wind speed and accumulation patterns. A possible cause of this latter point is density heterogeneity and sastrugi buried in the firn. These two results are an important step forward for the accurate retrieval of internal temperature using low-frequency microwave radiometers.
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Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., Deconto, R., Durand, G., et al. (2018). The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 degrees C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8(12), 1053–1061.
Abstract: Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0 degrees C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance-elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.
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Picard, G., Sandells, M., & Lowe, H. (2018). A New Active/Passive Microwave Radiative Transfer Model For Snow (Smrt) To Foster Inter-Comparisons Of Model Components. Igarss 2018 – 2018 Ieee International Geoscience And Remote Sensing Symposium, , 6276–6279.
Abstract: The Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model computes the thermal emission and backscatter model of snopwpack. Compared to similar existing models, it was developed to unify and inter-compare different descriptions of the snow microstructure found in different microwave models. For that, SMRT offer the capability of switching between different electromagnetic theories, representations of snow microstructure, and other modules involved in various calculation steps. The current version of SMRT includes the Dense Media Radiative Transfer theory (DMRT), the Improved Born Approximation (IBA) and independent Rayleigh scatterers to compute the intrinsic electromagnetic properties of snow layers. Under IBA, SMRT was used to compare sticky hard sphere and exponential microstructure representation and to identify that several former studies conducting simulations with in-situ measured snow properties are now comparable and moreover appear to be quantitatively nearly equivalent. The model is available as open source software.
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Picard, G., Sandells, M., & Lowe, H. (2018). SMRT: an active-passive microwave radiative transfer model for snow with multiple microstructure and scattering formulations (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 11(7), 2763–2788.
Abstract: The Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) thermal emission and backscatter model was developed to determine uncertainties in forward modeling through intercomparison of different model ingredients. The model differs from established models by the high degree of flexibility in switching between different electromagnetic theories, representations of snow microstructure, and other modules involved in various calculation steps. SMRT v1.0 includes the dense media radiative transfer theory (DMRT), the improved Born approximation (IBA), and independent Rayleigh scatterers to compute the intrinsic electromagnetic properties of a snow layer. In the case of IBA, five different formulations of the autocorrelation function to describe the snow microstructure characteristics are available, including the sticky hard sphere model, for which close equivalence between the IBA and DMRT theories has been shown here. Validation is demonstrated against established theories and models. SMRT was used to identify that several former studies conducting simulations with in situ measured snow properties are now comparable and moreover appear to be quantitatively nearly equivalent. This study also proves that a third parameter is needed in addition to density and specific surface area to characterize the microstructure. The paper provides a comprehensive description of the mathematical basis of SMRT and its numerical implementation in Python. Modularity supports model extensions foreseen in future versions comprising other media (e.g., sea ice, frozen lakes), different scattering theories, rough surface models, or new microstructure models.
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Pirazzini, R., Leppanen, L., Picard, G., Lopez-Moreno, J., Marty, C., Macelloni, G., et al. (2018). European In-Situ Snow Measurements: Practices and Purposes. Sensors, 18(7).
Abstract: In-situ snow measurements conducted by European institutions for operational, research, and energy business applications were surveyed in the framework of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404, called “A European network for a harmonised monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology, and numerical weather prediction”. Here we present the results of this survey, which was answered by 125 participants from 99 operational and research institutions, belonging to 38 European countries. The typologies of environments where the snow measurements are performed range from mountain to low elevated plains, including forests, bogs, tundra, urban areas, glaciers, lake ice, and sea ice. Of the respondents, 93% measure snow macrophysical parameters, such as snow presence, snow depth (HS), snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow density. These describe the bulk characteristics of the whole snowpack or of a snow layer, and they are the primary snow properties that are needed for most operational applications (such as hydrological monitoring, avalanche forecast, and weather forecast). In most cases, these measurements are done with manual methods, although for snow presence, HS, and SWE, automatized methods are also applied by some respondents. Parameters characterizing precipitating and suspended snow (such as the height of new snow, precipitation intensity, flux of drifting/blowing snow, and particle size distribution), some of which are crucial for the operational services, are measured by 74% of the respondents. Parameters characterizing the snow microstructural properties (such as the snow grain size and shape, and specific surface area), the snow electromagnetic properties (such as albedo, brightness temperature, and backscatter), and the snow composition (such as impurities and isotopes) are measured by 41%, 26%, and 13% of the respondents, respectively, mostly for research applications. The results of this survey are discussed from the perspective of the need of enhancing the efficiency and coverage of the in-situ observational network applying automatic and cheap measurement methods. Moreover, recommendations for the enhancement and harmonization of the observational network and measurement practices are provided.
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Qiu, C. J., Zhu, D., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., Krinner, G., Peng, S. S., et al. (2018). ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(2), 497–519.
Abstract: Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5 degrees grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (V-cmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r(2) = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r(2) = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r(2) = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r(2) = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r(2) values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r(2) values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r(2) < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized V-cmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average V-cmax value.
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Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Ritz, C., Peyaud, V., & Roche, D. (2018). The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(12), 5003–5025.
Abstract: In this paper, we present the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision (version 2.0). Whilst GRISLI is applicable to any given ice sheet, we focus here on the Antarctic ice sheet because it highlights the importance of grounding line dynamics. Important improvements have been implemented in the model since its original version (Ritz et al., 2001). Notably, GRISLI now includes a basal hydrology model and an explicit flux computation at the grounding line based on the analytical formulations of Schoof (2007) or Tsai et al. (2015). We perform a full calibration of the model based on an ensemble of 300 simulations sampling mechanical parameter space using a Latin hypercube method. Performance of individual members is assessed relative to the deviation from present-day observed Antarctic ice thickness. To assess the ability of the model to simulate grounding line migration, we also present glacial-interglacial ice sheet changes throughout the last 400 kyr using the best ensemble members taking advantage of the capacity of the model to perform multi-millennial long-term integrations. To achieve this goal, we construct a simple climatic perturbation of present-day climate forcing fields based on two climate proxies: atmospheric and oceanic. The model is able to reproduce expected grounding line advances during glacial periods and subsequent retreats during terminations with reasonable glacial-interglacial ice volume changes.
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Roy, A., Leduc-Leballeur, M., Picard, G., Royer, A., Toose, P., Derksen, C., et al. (2018). Modelling the L-Band Snow-Covered Surface Emission in a Winter Canadian Prairie Environment. Remote Sensing, 10(9).
Abstract: Detailed angular ground-based L-band brightness temperature (T-B) measurements over snow covered frozen soil in a prairie environment were used to parameterize and evaluate an electromagnetic model, the Wave Approach for LOw-frequency MIcrowave emission in Snow (WALOMIS), for seasonal snow. WALOMIS, initially developed for Antarctic applications, was extended with a soil interface model. A Gaussian noise on snow layer thickness was implemented to account for natural variability and thus improve the T-B simulations compared to observations. The model performance was compared with two radiative transfer models, the Dense Media Radiative Transfer-Multi Layer incoherent model (DMRT-ML) and a version of the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) adapted specifically for use at L-band in the original one-layer configuration (LS-MEMLS-1L). Angular radiometer measurements (30 degrees, 40 degrees, 50 degrees, and 60 degrees) were acquired at six snow pits. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) between simulated and measured TB at vertical and horizontal polarizations were similar for the three models, with overall RMSE between 7.2 and 10.5 K. However, WALOMIS and DMRT-ML were able to better reproduce the observed TB at higher incidence angles (50 degrees and 60 degrees) and at horizontal polarization. The similar results obtained between WALOMIS and DMRT-ML suggests that the interference phenomena are weak in the case of shallow seasonal snow despite the presence of visible layers with thicknesses smaller than the wavelength, and the radiative transfer model can thus be used to compute L-band brightness temperature.
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Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., et al. (2018). Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature, 558(7709), 219–+.
Abstract: The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 +/- 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 +/- 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 +/- 29 billion to 159 +/- 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 +/- 13 billion to 33 +/- 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5 +/- 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.
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Song, S., Angot, H., Selin, N., Gallee, H., Sprovieri, F., Pirrone, N., et al. (2018). Understanding mercury oxidation and air-snow exchange on the East Antarctic Plateau: a modeling study. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 18(21), 15825–15840.
Abstract: Distinct diurnal and seasonal variations of mercury (Hg) have been observed in near-surface air at Concordia Station on the East Antarctic Plateau, but the processes controlling these characteristics are not well understood. Here, we use a box model to interpret the Hg-0 (gaseous elemental mercury) measurements in thes year 2013. The model includes atmospheric Hg-0 oxidation (by OH, O-3, or bromine), surface snow Hg-II (oxidized mercury) reduction, and air-snow exchange, and is driven by meteorological fields from a regional climate model. The simulations suggest that a photochemically driven mercury diurnal cycle occurs at the air-snow interface in austral summer. The fast oxidation of Hg-0 in summer may be provided by a two-step bromine-initiated scheme, which is favored by low temperature and high nitrogen oxides at Concordia. The summertime diurnal variations of Hg-0 (peaking during daytime) may be confined within several tens of meters above the snow surface and affected by changing mixed layer depths. Snow re-emission of Hg-0 is mainly driven by photoreduction of snow HgII in summer. Intermittent warming events and a hypothesized reduction of Hg-II occurring in snow in the dark may be important processes controlling the mercury variations in the non-summer period, although their relative importance is uncertain. The Br-initiated oxidation of Hg-0 is expected to be slower at Summit Station in Greenland than at Concordia (due to their difference in temperature and levels of nitrogen oxides and ozone), which may contribute to the observed differences in the summertime diurnal variations of Hg-0 between these two polar inland stations.
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Souverijns, N., Gossart, A., Lhermitte, S., Gorodetskaya, I., Grazioli, J., Berne, A., et al. (2018). Evaluation of the CloudSat surface snowfall product over Antarctica using ground-based precipitation radars. Cryosphere, 12(12), 3775–3789.
Abstract: In situ observations of snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet are scarce. Currently, continent-wide assessments of snowfall are limited to information from the Cloud Profiling Radar on board the CloudSat satellite, which has not been evaluated up to now. In this study, snowfall derived from CloudSat is evaluated using three ground-based vertically profiling 24 GHz precipitation radars (Micro Rain Radars: MRRs). Firstly, using the MRR long-term measurement records, an assessment of the uncertainty caused by the low temporal sampling rate of CloudSat (one revisit per 2.1 to 4.5 days) is performed. The 10-90th-percentile temporal sampling uncertainty in the snowfall climatology varies between 30 % and 40 % depending on the latitudinal location and revisit time of CloudSat. Secondly, an evaluation of the snowfall climatology indicates that the CloudSat product, derived at a resolution of 1 degrees latitude by 2 degrees longitude, is able to accurately represent the snowfall climatology at the three MRR sites (biases < 15 %), outperforming ERA-Interim. For coarser and finer resolutions, the performance drops as a result of higher omission errors by CloudSat. Moreover, the CloudSat product does not perform well in simulating individual snowfall events. Since the difference between the MRRs and the CloudSat climatology are limited and the temporal uncertainty is lower than current Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) snowfall variability, our results imply that the CloudSat product is valuable for climate model evaluation purposes.
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Spolaor, A., Angot, H., Roman, M., Dommergue, A., Scarchilli, C., Varde, M., et al. (2018). Feedback mechanisms between snow and atmospheric mercury: Results and observations from field campaigns on the Antarctic plateau. Chemosphere, 197, 306–317.
Abstract: The Antarctic Plateau snowpack is an important environment for the mercury geochemical cycle. We have extensively characterized and compared the changes in surface snow and atmospheric mercury concentrations that occur at Dome C. Three summer sampling campaigns were conducted between 2013 and 2016. The three campaigns had different meteorological conditions that significantly affected mercury deposition processes and its abundance in surface snow. In the absence of snow deposition events, the surface mercury concentration remained stable with narrow oscillations, while an increase in precipitation results in a higher mercury variability. The Hg concentrations detected confirm that snowfall can act as a mercury atmospheric scavenger. A high temporal resolution sampling experiment showed that surface concentration changes are connected with the diurnal solar radiation cycle. Mercury in surface snow is highly dynamic and it could decrease by up to 90% within 4/6 h. A negative relationship between surface snow mercury and atmospheric concentrations has been detected suggesting a mutual dynamic exchange between these two environments. Mercury concentrations were also compared with the Br concentrations in surface and deeper snow, results suggest that Br could have an active role in Hg deposition, particularly when air masses are from coastal areas. This research presents new information on the presence of Hg in surface and deeper snow layers, improving our understanding of atmospheric Hg deposition to the snow surface and the possible role of re-emission on the atmospheric Hg concentration. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Touzeau, A., Landais, A., Morin, S., Arnaud, L., & Picard, G. (2018). Numerical experiments on vapor diffusion in polar snow and firn and its impact on isotopes using the multi-layer energy balance model Crocus in SURFEX v8.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2393–2418.
Abstract: To evaluate the impact of vapor diffusion on isotopic composition variations in snow pits and then in ice cores, we introduced water isotopes in the detailed snowpack model Crocus. At each step and for each snow layer, (1) the initial isotopic composition of vapor is taken at equilibrium with the solid phase, (2) a kinetic fractionation is applied during transport, and (3) vapor is condensed or snow is sublimated to compensate for deviation to vapor pressure at saturation. We study the different effects of temperature gradient, compaction, wind compaction, and precipitation on the final vertical isotopic profiles. We also run complete simulations of vapor diffusion along isotopic gradients and of vapor diffusion driven by temperature gradients at GRIP, Greenland and at Dome C, Antarctica over periods of 1 or 10 years. The vapor diffusion tends to smooth the original seasonal signal, with an attenuation of 7 to 12 % of the original signal over 10 years at GRIP. This is smaller than the observed attenuation in ice cores, indicating that the model attenuation due to diffusion is underestimated or that other processes, such as ventilation, influence attenuation. At Dome C, the attenuation is stronger (18 %), probably because of the lower accumulation and stronger delta O-18 gradients.
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Vignon, E., Hourdin, F., Genthon, C., van de Wiel, B. J. H., Gallee, H., Madeleine, J. B., et al. (2018). Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 10(1), 98–125.
Abstract: Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped'' relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.
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Vincent, C., Dumont, M., Six, D., Brun, F., Picard, G., & Arnaud, L. (2018). Why do the dark and light ogives of Forbes bands have similar surface mass balances? Journal Of Glaciology, 64(244), 236–246.
Abstract: Band ogives are a striking and enigmatic feature of Mer de Glace glacier flow. The surface mass balances (SMBs) of these ogives have been thoroughly investigated over a period of 12 years. We find similar cumulative SMBs over this period, ranging between -64.1 and -66.2 m w.e., on the dark and light ogives even though the dark ogive albedo is similar to 40% lower than that of the light ogives. We, therefore, looked for another process that could compensate for the large difference of absorbed short-wave radiation between dark and light ogives. Based on in situ roughness measurements, our numerical modeling experiments demonstrate that a significant difference in turbulent flux over the dark and light ogives due to different surface roughnesses could compensate for the difference in radiative forcing. Our results discard theories for the genesis of band ogives that are based on the assumption of a strong ice ablation contrast between dark and light ogives. More generally, our study demonstrates that future roughness changes are as important to analyze as the radiative impacts of a potential increase of aerosols or debris at the surface of glaciers.
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Wegmann, M., Dutra, E., Jacobi, H. W., & Zolina, O. (2018). Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products. Cryosphere, 12(6), 1887–1898.
Abstract: This study uses daily observations and modern reanalyses in order to evaluate reanalysis products over northern Eurasia regarding the spring snow albedo feedback (SAF) during the period from 2000 to 2013. We used the state-of-the-art reanalyses from ERA-Interim/Land and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) as well as an experimental set-up of ERA-Interim/Land with prescribed short grass as land cover to enhance the comparability with the station data while underlining the caveats of comparing in situ observations with gridded data. Snow depth statistics derived from daily station data are well reproduced in all three reanalyses. However day-to-day albedo variability is notably higher at the stations than for any reanalysis product. The ERAInterim grass set-up shows improved performance when representing albedo variability and generates comparable estimates for the snow albedo in spring. We find that modern reanalyses show a physically consistent representation of SAF, with realistic spatial patterns and area-averaged sensitivity estimates. However, station-based SAF values are significantly higher than in the reanalyses, which is mostly driven by the stronger contrast between snow and snow-free albedo. Switching to grass-only vegetation in ERA-Interim/Land increases the SAF values up to the level of station-based estimates. We found no significant trend in the examined 14year time series of SAF, but interannual changes of about 0.5% K-1 in both station-based and reanalysis estimates were derived. This interannual variability is primarily dominated by the variability in the snowmelt sensitivity, which is correctly captured in reanalysis products. Although modern reanalyses perform well for snow variables, efforts should be made to improve the representation of dynamic albedo changes.
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Wegmann, M., Orsolini, Y., & Zolina, O. (2018). Warm Arctic-cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2).
Abstract: The Warm Arctic-cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period.
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Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., et al. (2018). Ocean-Induced Melt Triggers Glacier Retreat in Northwest Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(16), 8334–8342.
Abstract: In recent decades, tidewater glaciers in Northwest Greenland contributed significantly to sea level rise but exhibited a complex spatial pattern of retreat. Here we use novel observations of bathymetry and water temperature from NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland mission to quantify the role of warm, salty Atlantic Water in controlling the evolution of 37 glaciers. Modeled ocean-induced undercutting of calving margins compared with ice advection and ice front retreat observed by satellites from 1985 to 2015 indicate that 35 glaciers retreated when cumulative anomalies in ocean-induced undercutting rose above the range of seasonal variability of calving-front positions, while two glaciers standing on shallow sills and colder water did not retreat. Deviations in the observed timing of retreat are explained by residual uncertainties in bathymetry, inefficient mixing of waters in shallow fjords, and the presence of small floating sections. Overall, warmer ocean temperature triggered the retreat, but calving processes dominate ablation (71%).
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Zhu, D., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Krinner, G., Peng, S. S., Viovy, N., et al. (2018). The large mean body size of mammalian herbivores explains the productivity paradox during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2(4), 640–649.
Abstract: Large herbivores are a major agent in ecosystems, influencing vegetation structure, and carbon and nutrient flows. During the last glacial period, a mammoth steppe ecosystem prevailed in the unglaciated northern lands, supporting a high diversity and density of megafaunal herbivores. The apparent discrepancy between abundant megafauna and the expected low vegetation productivity under a generally harsher climate with a lower CO2 concentration, termed the productivity paradox, requires large-scale quantitative analysis using process-based ecosystem models. However, most of the current global dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) lack explicit representation of large herbivores. Here we incorporated a grazing module in a DGVM based on physiological and demographic equations for wild large grazers, taking into account feedbacks of large grazers on vegetation. The model was applied globally for present-day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The present-day results of potential grazer biomass, combined with an empirical land-use map, infer a reduction in wild grazer biomass by 79-93% owing to anthropogenic land replacement of natural grasslands. For the LGM, we find that the larger mean body size of mammalian herbivores than today is the crucial clue to explain the productivity paradox, due to a more efficient exploitation of grass production by grazers with a large body size.
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2017 |
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Amory, C., Gallee, H., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Favier, V., Vignon, E., Picard, G., et al. (2017). Seasonal Variations in Drag Coefficient over a Sastrugi-Covered Snowfield in Coastal East Antarctica. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 164(1), 107–133.
Abstract: The surface of windy Antarctic snowfields is subject to drifting snow, which leads to the formation of sastrugi. In turn, sastrugi contribute to the drag exerted by the snowsurface on the atmosphere and hence influence drifting snow. Although the surface drag over rough sastrugi fields has been estimated for individual locations in Antarctica, its variation over time and with respect to drifting snow has received little attention. Using year-round data from a meteorological mast, seasonal variations in the neutral drag coefficient at a height of 10m (C-DN10) in coastal Adelie Land are presented and discussed in light of the formation and behaviour of sastrugi based on observed aeolian erosion patterns. The measurements revealed high C-DN10 values (>= 2 x 10(-3)) and limited drifting snow (35% of the time) in summer (December-February) versus lower C-DN10 values (approximate to 1.5 x 10(-3)) associated with more frequent drifting snow (70% of the time) in winter (March-November). Without the seasonal distinction, there was no clear dependence of C-DN10 on friction velocity or wind direction, but observations revealed a general increase in C-DN10 with rising air temperature. Themain hypothesis defended here is that higher temperatures increase snowcohesion and the development of sastrugi just after snow deposition while inhibiting the sastrugi streamlining process by raising the erosion threshold. This increases the contribution of the sastrugi form drag to the total surface drag in summer when winds are lighter and more variable. The analysis also showed that, in the absence of erosion, single snowfall events can reduce C-DN10 to 1 x 10(-3) due to the burying of pre-existing microrelief under newly deposited snow. The results suggest that polar atmospheric models should account for spatial and temporal variations in snow surface roughness through a dynamic representation of the sastrugi form drag.
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Asay-Davis, X. S., Jourdain, N. C., & Nakayama, Y. (2017). Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Current Climate Change Reports, 3(4), 316–329.
Abstract: Recent advances in both ocean modeling and melt parameterization in ice-sheet models point the way toward coupled ice sheet�ocean modeling, which is needed to quantify Antarctic mass loss and the resulting sea-level rise. The latest Antarctic ocean modeling shows that complex interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, icebergs, bathymetric features, and ocean circulation on many scales determine which water masses reach ice-shelf cavities and how much heat is available to melt ice. Meanwhile, parameterizations of basal melting in standalone ice-sheet models have evolved from simplified, depth-dependent functions to more sophisticated models, accounting for ice-shelf basal topography, and the evolution of the sub-ice-shelf buoyant flow. The focus of recent work has been on better understanding processes or adding new model capabilities, but a broader community effort is needed in validating models against observations and producing melt-rate projections. Given time, community efforts in coupled ice sheet�ocean modeling, already underway, will tackle the considerable challenges involved in building, initializing, constraining, and performing projections with coupled models, leading to reduced uncertainties in Antarctica�s contribution to future sea-level rise.
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Barrere, M., Domine, F., Decharme, B., Morin, S., Vionnet, V., & Lafaysse, M. (2017). Evaluating the performance of coupled snow-soil models in SURFEXv8 to simulate the permafrost thermal regime at a high Arctic site. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(9).
Abstract: Climate change projections still suffer from a limited representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Predicting the response of permafrost temperature to climate change requires accurate simulations of Arctic snow and soil properties. This study assesses the capacity of the coupled land surface and snow models ISBA-Crocus and ISBA-ES to simulate snow and soil properties at Bylot Island, a high Arctic site. Field measurements complemented with ERA-Interim reanalyses were used to drive the models and to evaluate simulation outputs. Snow height, density, temperature, thermal conductivity and thermal insulance are examined to determine the critical variables involved in the soil and snow thermal regime. Simulated soil properties are compared to measurements of thermal conductivity, temperature and water content. The simulated snow density profiles are unrealistic, which is most likely caused by the lack of representation in snow models of the upward water vapor fluxes generated by the strong temperature gradients within the snowpack. The resulting vertical profiles of thermal conductivity are inverted compared to observations, with high simulated values at the bottom of the snowpack. Still, ISBA-Crocus manages to successfully simulate the soil temperature in winter. Results are satisfactory in summer, but the temperature of the top soil could be better reproduced by adequately representing surface organic layers, i.e., mosses and litter, and in particular their water retention capacity. Transition periods (soil freezing and thawing) are the least well reproduced because the high basal snow thermal conductivity induces an excessively rapid heat transfer between the soil and the snow in simulations. Hence, global climate models should carefully consider Arctic snow thermal properties, and especially the thermal conductivity of the basal snow layer, to perform accurate predictions of the permafrost evolution under climate change.
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Breant, C., Martinerie, P., Orsi, A., Arnaud, L., & Landais, A. (2017). Modelling firn thickness evolution during the last deglaciation: constraints on sensitivity to temperature and impurities. Climate Of The Past, 13(7), 833–853.
Abstract: The transformation of snow into ice is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to model. Depending on surface temperature and accumulation rate, it may take several decades to millennia for air to be entrapped in ice. The air is thus always younger than the surrounding ice. The resulting gas-ice age difference is essential to documenting the phasing between CO2 and temperature changes, especially during deglaciations. The air trapping depth can be inferred in the past using a firn densification model, or using delta N-15 of air measured in ice cores. All firn densification models applied to deglaciations show a large disagreement with delta N-15 measurements at several sites in East Antarctica, predicting larger firn thickness during the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas delta N-15 suggests a reduced firn thickness compared to the Holocene. Here we present modifications of the LGGE firn densification model, which significantly reduce the model-data mismatch for the gas trapping depth evolution over the last deglaciation at the coldest sites in East Antarctica (Vostok, Dome C), while preserving the good agreement between measured and modelled modern firn density profiles. In particular, we introduce a dependency of the creep factor on temperature and impurities in the firn densification rate calculation. The temperature influence intends to reflect the dominance of different mechanisms for firn compaction at different temperatures. We show that both the new temperature parameterization and the influence of impurities contribute to the increased agreement between modelled and measured delta N-15 evolution during the last deglaciation at sites with low temperature and low accumulation rate, such as Dome C or Vostok. We find that a very low sensitivity of the densification rate to temperature has to be used in the coldest conditions. The inclusion of im-purity effects improves the agreement between modelled and measured delta N-15 at cold East Antarctic sites during the last deglaciation, but deteriorates the agreement between modelled and measured delta N-15 evolution at Greenland and Antarctic sites with high accumulation unless threshold effects are taken into account. We thus do not provide a definite solution to the firnification at very cold Antarctic sites but propose potential pathways for future studies.
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Brondex, J., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., & Durand, G. (2017). Sensitivity of grounding line dynamics to the choice of the friction law. Journal Of Glaciology, 63(241), 854–866.
Abstract: Basal slip accounts for a large part of the flow of ice streams draining ice from Antarctica and Greenland into the ocean. Therefore, an appropriate representation of basal slip in ice flow models is a prerequisite for accurate sea level rise projections. Various friction laws have been proposed to describe basal slip in models. Here, we compare the influence on grounding line (GL) dynamics of four friction laws: the traditional Weertman law and three effective pressure-dependent laws, namely the Schoof, Tsai and Budd laws. It turns out that, even when they are tuned to a common initial reference state, the Weertman, Budd and Schoof laws lead to thoroughly different steady-state positions, although the Schoof and Tsai laws lead to much the same result. In particular, under certain circumstances, it is possible to obtain a steady GL located on a reverse slope area using the Weertman law. Furthermore, the predicted transient evolution of the GL as well as the projected contributions to sea level rise over a 100-year time horizon vary significantly depending on the friction law. We conclude on the importance of choosing an appropriate law for reliable sea level rise projections and emphasise the need for a coupling between ice flow models and physically based subglacial hydrological models.
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Bull, C. Y. S., Kiss, A. E., Jourdain, N. C., England, M. H., & van Sebille, E. (2017). Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 122(12), 9980–9998.
Abstract: The East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy-permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time-mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy-permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies.
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Burke, E. J., Ekici, A., Huang, Y., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., et al. (2017). Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Biogeosciences, 14(12), 3051–3066.
Abstract: The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12% of the change in the global mean temperature (Delta T) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17% of Delta T by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of Delta T, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric – the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years – that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.
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Burr, A., Noel, W., Trecourt, P., Bourcier, M., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Philip, A., et al. (2017). The anisotropic contact response of viscoplastic monocrystalline ice particles. Acta Materialia, 132, 576–585.
Abstract: The contact between two particles of ice is studied experimentally and modeled. Experiments on the gradual indentation of a single or on two monocrystalline cylinders of ice demonstrate the effect of the relative orientation of their basal planes with the loading axis. Using polarized light and Digital Image Correlation, the main deformation mechanisms are documented. Experimental observations show the strong anisotropy of deformation, with strain localization into shear bands, corresponding to basal gliding of dislocations. When the rotation of cylinders is hindered by a large initial contact size, a simple model is proposed. It is based on indentation theory and takes into account the preferential viscoplastic deformation on the basal plane. The model form is validated by experimental data and by finite element simulations that incorporate the transverse isotropic law of an ice crystal. (C) 2017 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Calonne, N., Montagnat, M., Matzl, M., & Schneebeli, M. (2017). The layered evolution of fabric and microstructure of snow at Point Barnola, Central East Antarctica. Earth And Planetary Science Letters, 460, 293–301.
Abstract: Snow fabric, defined as the distribution of the c-axis orientations of the ice crystals in snow, is poorly known. So far, only one study exits that measured snow fabric based on a statistically representative technique. This recent study has revealed the impact of temperature gradient metamorphism on the evolution of fabric in natural snow, based on cold laboratory experiments. On polar ice sheets, snow properties are currently investigated regarding their strong variability in time and space, notably because of their potential influence on firn processes and consequently on ice core analysis. Here, we present measurements of fabric and microstructure of snow from Point Barnola, East Antarctica (close to Dome C). We analyzed a snow profile from 0 to 3 m depth, where temperature gradients occur. The main contributions of the paper are (1) a detailed characterization of snow in the upper meters of the ice sheet, especially by providing data on snow fabric, and (2) the study of a fundamental snow process, never observed up to now in a natural snowpack, namely the role of temperature gradient metamorphism on the evolution of the snow fabric. Snow samples were scanned by micro-tomography to measure continuous profiles of microstructural properties (density, specific surface area and pore thickness). Fabric analysis was performed using an automatic ice texture analyzer on 77 representative thin sections cut out from the samples. Different types of snow fabric could be identified and persist at depth. Snow fabric is significantly correlated with snow microstructure, pointing to the simultaneous influence of temperature gradient metamorphism on both properties. We propose a mechanism based on preferential grain growth to explain the fabric evolution under temperature gradients. Our work opens the question of how such a layered profile of fabric and microstructure evolves at depth and further influences the physical and mechanical properties of snow and firn. More generally, it opens the way to further studies on the influence of the snow fabric in snow processes related to anisotropic properties of ice such as grain growth, mechanical response, electromagnetic behavior. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Chadburn, S. E., Krinner, G., Porada, P., Bartsch, A., Beer, C., Marchesini, L. B., et al. (2017). Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models. Biogeosciences, 14(22), 5143–5169.
Abstract: It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.
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Chauve, T., Montagnat, M., Barou, F., Hidas, K., Tommasi, A., & Mainprice, D. (2017). Investigation of nucleation processes during dynamic recrystallization of ice using cryo-EBSD. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 375(2086).
Abstract: Nucleation mechanisms occurring during dynamic recrystallization play a crucial role in the evolution of microstructures and textures during high temperature deformation. In polycrystalline ice, the strong viscoplastic anisotropy induces high strain heterogeneities between grains which control the recrystallization mechanisms. Here, we study the nucleation mechanisms occurring during creep tests performed on polycrystalline columnar ice at high temperature and stress (T=-5 degrees C; sigma = 0.5 MPa) by post-mortem analyses of deformation microstructures using cryogenic electron backscatter diffraction. The columnar geometry of the samples enables discrimination of the nuclei from the initial grains. Various nucleation mechanisms are deduced from the analysis of the nuclei relations with the dislocation sub-structures within grains and at grain boundaries. Tilt sub-grain boundaries and kink bands are the main structures responsible for development of polygonization and mosaic sub-structures. Nucleation by bulging at serrated grain boundaries is also an efficient nucleation mechanism near the grain boundaries where strain incompatibilities are high. Observation of nuclei with orientations not related to the 'parent' ones suggests the possibility of 'spontaneous' nucleation driven by the relaxation of the dislocation-related internal stress field. The complexity of the nucleation mechanisms observed here emphasizes the impact of stress and strain heterogeneities on dynamic recrystallization mechanisms. This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.
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Chauve, T., Montagnat, M., Lachaud, C., Georges, D., & Vacher, P. (2017). Strain field evolution at the ductile-to-brittle transition: a case study on ice. Solid Earth, 8(5).
Abstract: This paper presents, for the first time, the evolution of the local heterogeneous strain field around intra-granular cracking in polycrystalline ice, at the onset of tertiary creep. Owing to the high homologous temperature conditions and relatively low compressive stress applied, stress concentration at the crack tips is relaxed by plastic mechanisms associated with dynamic recrystallization. Strain field evolution followed by digital image correlation (DIC) directly shows the redistribution of strain during crack opening, but also the redistribution driven by crack tip plasticity mechanisms and recrystallization. Associated local changes in microstructure induce modifications of the local stress field evidenced by crack closure during deformation. At the ductile-to-brittle transition in ice, micro-cracking and dynamic recrystallization mechanisms can co-exist and interact, the later being efficient to relax stress concentration at the crack tips.
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Chauve, T., Montagnat, M., Piazolo, S., Journaux, B., Wheeler, J., Barou, F., et al. (2017). Non-basal dislocations should be accounted for in simulating ice mass flow. Earth And Planetary Science Letters, 473, 247–255.
Abstract: Prediction of ice mass flow and associated dynamics is pivotal at a time of climate change. Ice flow is dominantly accommodated by the motion of crystal defects – the dislocations. In the specific case of ice, their observation is not always accessible by means of the classical tools such as X-ray diffraction or transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Part of the dislocation population, the geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) can nevertheless be constrained using crystal orientation measurements via electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) associated with appropriate analyses based on the Nye (1950) approach. The present study uses the Weighted Burgers Vectors, a reduced formulation of the Nye theory that enables the characterization of GNDs. Applied to ice, this method documents, for the first time, the presence of dislocations with non-basal [c] or < c + a > Burgers vectors. These [c] or (c + a) dislocations represent up to 35% of the GNDs observed in laboratory-deformed ice samples. Our findings offer a more complex and comprehensive picture of the key plasticity processes responsible for polycrystalline ice creep and provide better constraints on the constitutive mechanical laws implemented in ice sheet flow models used to predict the response of Earth ice masses to climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Dieng, A. L., Sall, S. M., Eymard, L., Leduc-Leballeur, M., & Lazar, A. (2017). Trains of African Easterly Waves and Their Relationship to Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Eastern Atlantic. Monthly Weather Review, 145(2), 599–616.
Abstract: In this study, the relationship between trains of African easterly waves (AEWs) and downstream tropical cyclogenesis is studied. Based on 19 summer seasons (July-September from 1990 to 2008) of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields and brightness temperature from the Cloud User Archive, the signature of AEW troughs and embedded convection are tracked from the West African coast to the central Atlantic. The tracked systems are separated into four groups: (i) systems originating from the north zone of the midtropospheric African easterly jet (AEJ), (ii) those coming from the south part of AEJ, (iii) systems that are associated with a downstream trough located around 2000 km westward (termed DUO systems), and (iv) those that are not associated with such a close downstream trough (termed SOLO systems). By monitoring the embedded 700-hPa-filtered relative vorticity and 850-hPa wind convergence anomaly associated with these families along their trajectories, it is shown that the DUO generally have stronger dynamical structure and statistically have a longer lifetime than the SOLO ones. It is suggested that the differences between them may be due to the presence of the previous intense downstream trough in DUO cases, enhancing the low-level convergence behind them. Moreover, a study of the relationship between system trajectories and tropical depressions occurring between the West African coast and 40 degrees W showed that 90% of tropical depressions are identifiable from the West African coast in tracked systems, mostly in the DUO cases originating from the south zone of the AEJ.
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Donat-Magnin, M., Jourdain, N. C., Spence, P., Le Sommer, J., Gallee, H., & Durand, G. (2017). Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 122(12), 10206–10224.
Abstract: It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12 degrees ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.
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Druel, A., Peylin, P., Krinner, G., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Peregon, A., et al. (2017). Towards a more detailed representation of high-latitude vegetation in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE (ORC-HL-VEGv1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 10(12), 4693–4722.
Abstract: Simulation of vegetation-climate feedbacks in high latitudes in the ORCHIDEE land surface model was improved by the addition of three new circumpolar plant functional types (PFTs), namely non-vascular plants representing bryophytes and lichens, Arctic shrubs and Arctic C-3 grasses. Non-vascular plants are assigned no stomatal conductance, very shallow roots, and can desiccate during dry episodes and become active again during wet periods, which gives them a larger phenological plasticity (i.e. adaptability and resilience to severe climatic constraints) compared to grasses and shrubs. Shrubs have a specific carbon allocation scheme, and differ from trees by their larger survival rates in winter, due to protection by snow. Arctic C3 grasses have the same equations as in the original ORCHIDEE version, but different parameter values, optimised from in situ observations of biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) in Siberia. In situ observations of living biomass and productivity from Siberia were used to calibrate the parameters of the new PFTs using a Bayesian optimisation procedure. With the new PFTs, we obtain a lower NPP by 31% (from 55 degrees N), as well as a lower roughness length (-41%), transpiration (-33%) and a higher winter albedo (by +3.6%) due to increased snow cover. A simulation of the water balance and runoff and drainage in the high northern latitudes using the new PFTs results in an increase of fresh water discharge in the Arctic ocean by 11% (+140 km(3) yr(-1)), owing to less evapotranspiration. Future developments should focus on the competition between these three PFTs and boreal tree PFTs, in order to simulate their area changes in response to climate change, and the effect of carbon-nitrogen interactions.
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Dumont, M., Arnaud, L., Picard, G., Libois, Q., Lejeune, Y., Nabat, P., et al. (2017). In situ continuous visible and near-infrared spectroscopy of an alpine snowpack. Cryosphere, 11(3), 1091–1110.
Abstract: Snow spectral albedo in the visible/near-infrared range has been continuously measured during a winter season at Col de Porte alpine site (French Alps; 45.30(circle) N, 5.77(circle) E; 1325ma.s.l.). The evolution of such alpine snowpack is complex due to intensive precipitation, rapid melt events and Saharan dust deposition outbreaks. This study highlights that the resulting intricate variations of spectral albedo can be successfully explained by variations of the following snow surface variables: specific surface area (SSA) of snow, effective light-absorbing impurities content, presence of liquid water and slope. The methodology developed in this study disentangles the effect of these variables on snow spectral albedo. The presence of liquid water at the snow surface results in a spectral shift of the albedo from which melt events can be identified with an occurrence of false detection rate lower than 3.5 %. Snow SSA mostly impacts spectral albedo in the near-infrared range. Impurity deposition mostly impacts the albedo in the visible range but this impact is very dependent on snow SSA and surface slope. Our work thus demonstrates that the SSA estimation from spectral albedo is affected by large uncertainties for a tilted snow surface and medium to high impurity contents and that the estimation of impurity content is also affected by large uncertainties, especially for low values below 50 ng g(-1) black carbon equivalent. The proposed methodology opens routes for retrieval of SSA, impurity content, melt events and surface slope from spectral albedo. However, an exhaustive accuracy assessment of the snow black properties retrieval would require more independent in situ measurements and is beyond the scope of the present study. This time series of snow spectral albedo nevertheless already provides a new insight into our understanding of the evolution of snow surface properties.
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Farinotti, D., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Clarke, G. K. C., Fuerst, J. J., Frey, H., Gantayat, P., et al. (2017). How accurate are estimates of glacier ice thickness? Results from ITMIX, the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment. Cryosphere, 11(2), 949–970.
Abstract: Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of glaciers and ice caps is an important prerequisite for many glaciological and hydrological investigations. A wealth of approaches has recently been presented for inferring ice thickness from characteristics of the surface. With the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment (ITMIX) we performed the first coordinated assessment quantifying individual model performance. A set of 17 different models showed that individual ice thickness estimates can differ considerably – locally by a spread comparable to the observed thickness. Averaging the results of multiple models, however, significantly improved the results: on average over the 21 considered test cases, comparison against direct ice thickness measurements revealed deviations on the order of 10 +/- 24% of the mean ice thickness (1 sigma estimate). Models relying on multiple data sets – such as surface ice velocity fields, surface mass balance, or rates of ice thickness change -showed high sensitivity to input data quality. Together with the requirement of being able to handle large regions in an automated fashion, the capacity of better accounting for uncertainties in the input data will be a key for an improved next generation of ice thickness estimation approaches.
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Favier, V., Krinner, G., Amory, C., Gallee, H., Beaumet, J., & Agosta, C. (2017). Antarctica-Regional Climate and Surface Mass Budget. Current Climate Change Reports, 3(4), 303–315.
Abstract: We review recent literature on atmospheric, surface ocean and sea-ice observations and modeling results in the Antarctic sector and relate the observed climatic trends with the potential changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the ice sheet since 1900. Estimates of regional scale SMB distribution and trends remain subject to large uncertainties. Approaches combining and comparing multiple satellite and model-based assessments of ice sheet mass balance aim at reducing these knowledge gaps. During the last decades, significant changes in atmospheric circulation occurred around Antarctica, due to the exceptional positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode and to the climate variability observed in the tropical Pacific at the end of the twentieth century. Even though climate over the East Antarctic Ice-Sheet remained quite stable, a warming and precipitation increase was observed over the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet and over the West Antarctic Peninsula (AP) during the twentieth century. However, the high regional climate variability overwhelms climate changes associated to human drivers of global temperature changes, as reflected by a slight recent decadal cooling trend over the AP. Climate models still fail to accurately reproduce the multi-decadal SMB trends at a regional scale, and progress has to be achieved in reproducing atmospheric circulation changes related to complex ocean/ice/atmosphere interactions. Complex processes are also still insufficiently considered, such as (1) specific polar atmospheric processes (clouds, drifting snow, and stable boundary layer physics), (2) surface firn physics involved in the surface drag variations, or in firn air depletion and albedo feedbacks. Finally, progress in reducing the uncertainties relative to projections of the future SMB of Antarctica will largely depend on climate model capability to correctly consider teleconnections with low and mid-latitudes, and on the ability to correct them for biases, taking into account the coupling between ocean, ice, and atmosphere in high southern latitudes.
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Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., et al. (2017). Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model. Cryosphere, 11(2), 1015–1033.
Abstract: With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (ModSle Atmospherique Regional; version 3.5.2) model with the ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis; 1979-2015), ERA-40 (1958-2001), NCEP-NCARv1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis version 1; 19482015), NCEP-NCARv2 (1979-2015), JRA-55 (Japanese 55year Reanalysis; 1958-2014), 20CRv2(c) (Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2; 1900-2014) and ERA-20C (19002010) reanalyses. While all these forcing products are reanalyses that are assumed to represent the same climate, they produce significant differences in the MAR-simulated SMB over their common period. A temperature adjustment of C 1 ffi C (respectively 1 degrees C) was, for example, needed at the MAR boundaries with ERA-20C (20CRv2) reanalysis, given that ERA-20C (20CRv2) is similar to 1 degrees C colder (warmer) than ERAInterim over Greenland during the period 1980-2010. Comparisons with daily PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) near-surface observations support these adjustments. Comparisons with SMB measurements, ice cores and satellite-derived melt extent reveal the most accurate forcing datasets for the simulation of the GrIS SMB to be ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCARv1. However, some biases remain in MAR, suggesting that some improvements are still needed in its cloudiness and radiative schemes as well as in the representation of the bare ice albedo. Results from all MAR simulations indicate that (i) the period 1961-1990, commonly chosen as a stable reference period for Greenland SMB and ice dynamics, is actually a period of anomalously positive SMB (C 40 Gt yr 1) compared to 1900-2010; (ii) SMB has decreased significantly after this reference period due to increasing and unprecedented melt reaching the highest rates in the 120-year common period; (iii) before 1960, both ERA-20C and 20CRv2forced MAR simulations suggest a significant precipitation increase over 1900-1950, but this increase could be the result of an artefact in the reanalyses that are not well-enough constrained by observations during this period and (iv) since the 1980s, snowfall is quite stable after having reached a maximum in the 1970s. These MAR-based SMB and accumulation reconstructions are, however, quite similar to those from Box (2013) after 1930 and confirm that SMB was quite stable from the 1940s to the 1990s. Finally, only the ERA-2
0Cforced simulation suggests that SMB during the 1920-1930 warm period over Greenland was comparable to the SMB of the 2000s, due to both higher melt and lower precipitation than normal. |
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Furst, J. J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Benham, T. J., Dowdeswell, J. A., Grabiec, M., Navarro, F., et al. (2017). Application of a two-step approach for mapping ice thickness to various glacier types on Svalbard. Cryosphere, 11(5), 2003–2032.
Abstract: The basal topography is largely unknown beneath most glaciers and ice caps, and many attempts have been made to estimate a thickness field from other more accessible information at the surface. Here, we present a two-step reconstruction approach for ice thickness that solves mass conservation over single or several connected drainage basins. The approach is applied to a variety of test geometries with abundant thickness measurements including marine-and landterminating glaciers as well as a 2400 km(2) ice cap on Svalbard. The input requirements are kept to a minimum for the first step. In this step, a geometrically controlled, non-local flux solution is converted into thickness values relying on the shallow ice approximation (SIA). In a second step, the thickness field is updated along fast-flowing glacier trunks on the basis of velocity observations. Both steps account for available thickness measurements. Each thickness field is presented together with an error-estimate map based on a formal propagation of input uncertainties. These error estimates point out that the thickness field is least constrained near ice divides or in other stagnant areas. Withholding a share of the thickness measurements, error estimates tend to overestimate mismatch values in a median sense. We also have to accept an aggregate uncertainty of at least 25% in the reconstructed thickness field for glaciers with very sparse or no observations. For Vestfonna ice cap (VIC), a previous ice volume estimate based on the same measurement record as used here has to be corrected upward by 22 %. We also find that a 13% area fraction of the ice cap is in fact grounded below sea level. The former 5% estimate from a direct measurement interpolation exceeds an aggregate maximum range of 6-23% as inferred from the error estimates here.
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Genthon, C., Piard, L., Vignon, E., Madeleine, J. B., Casado, M., & Gallee, H. (2017). Atmospheric moisture supersaturation in the near-surface atmosphere at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 17(1), 691–704.
Abstract: Supersaturation often occurs at the top of the troposphere where cirrus clouds form, but is comparatively unusual near the surface where the air is generally warmer and laden with liquid and/or ice condensation nuclei. One exception is the surface of the high Antarctic Plateau. One year of atmospheric moisture measurement at the surface of Dome C on the East Antarctic Plateau is presented. The measurements are obtained using commercial hygrometry sensors modified to allow air sampling without affecting the moisture content, even in the case of supersaturation. Supersaturation is found to be very frequent. Common unadapted hygrometry sensors generally fail to report supersaturation, and most reports of atmospheric moisture on the Antarctic Plateau are thus likely biased low. The measurements are compared with results from two models implementing cold microphysics parameterizations: the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts through its operational analyses, and the Model Atmospherique Regional. As in the observations, supersaturation is frequent in the models but the statistical distribution differs both between models and observations and between the two models, leaving much room for model improvement. This is unlikely to strongly affect estimations of surface sublimation because supersaturation is more frequent as temperature is lower, and moisture quantities and thus water fluxes are small anyway. Ignoring supersaturation may be a more serious issue when considering water isotopes, a tracer of phase change and temperature, largely used to reconstruct past climates and environments from ice cores. Because observations are easier in the surface atmosphere, longer and more continuous in situ observation series of atmospheric supersaturation can be obtained than higher in the atmosphere to test parameterizations of cold microphysics, such as those used in the formation of high-altitude cirrus clouds in meteorological and climate models.
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Gladstone, R. M., Warner, R. C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gagliardini, O., Zwinger, T., & Greve, R. (2017). Marine ice sheet model performance depends on basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting. Cryosphere, 11(1), 319–329.
Abstract: Computer models are necessary for understanding and predicting marine ice sheet behaviour. However, there is uncertainty over implementation of physical processes at the ice base, both for grounded and floating glacial ice. Here we implement several sliding relations in a marine ice sheet flow-line model accounting for all stress components and demonstrate that model resolution requirements are strongly dependent on both the choice of basal sliding relation and the spatial distribution of ice shelf basal melting. Sliding relations that reduce the magnitude of the step change in basal drag from grounded ice to floating ice (where basal drag is set to zero) show reduced dependence on resolution compared to a commonly used relation, in which basal drag is purely a power law function of basal ice velocity. Sliding relations in which basal drag goes smoothly to zero as the grounding line is approached from inland (due to a physically motivated incorporation of effective pressure at the bed) provide further reduction in resolution dependence. A similar issue is found with the imposition of basal melt under the floating part of the ice shelf: melt parameterisations that reduce the abruptness of change in basal melting from grounded ice (where basal melt is set to zero) to floating ice provide improved convergence with resolution compared to parameterisations in which high melt occurs adjacent to the grounding line. Thus physical processes, such as sub-glacial outflow (which could cause high melt near the grounding line), impact on capability to simulate marine ice sheets. If there exists an abrupt change across the grounding line in either basal drag or basal melting, then high resolution will be required to solve the problem. However, the plausible combination of a physical dependency of basal drag on effective pressure, and the possibility of low ice shelf basal melt rates next to the grounding line, may mean that some marine ice sheet systems can be reliably simulated at a coarser resolution than currently thought necessary.
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Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Preunkert, S., Fily, M., Gallee, H., et al. (2017). A 60-year ice-core record of regional climate from Adelie Land, coastal Antarctica. Cryosphere, 11(1), 343–362.
Abstract: A 22.4 m-long shallow firn core was extracted during the 2006/2007 field season from coastal Adelie Land. Annual layer counting based on subannual analyses of delta O-18 and major chemical components was combined with 5 reference years associated with nuclear tests and non-retreat of summer sea ice to build the initial ice-core chronology (19462006), stressing uncertain counting for 8 years. We focus here on the resulting delta O-18 and accumulation records. With an average value of 21.8 +/- 6.9 cmw. e. yr(-1), local accumulation shows multi-decadal variations peaking in the 1980s, but no long-term trend. Similar results are obtained for delta O-18, also characterised by a remarkably low and variable amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The ice-core records are compared with regional records of temperature, stake area accumulation measurements and variations in sea-ice extent, and outputs from two models nudged to ERA (European Re-analysis) atmospheric reanalyses: the high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), including stable water isotopes ECHAM5-wiso (European Centre Hamburg model), and the regional atmospheric model Modele Atmospherique Regional (AR). A significant linear correlation is identified between decadal variations in delta O-18 and regional temperature. No significant relationship appears with regional sea-ice extent. A weak and significant correlation appears with Dumont d'Urville wind speed, increasing after 1979. The model-data comparison highlights the inadequacy of ECHAM5-wiso simulations prior to 1979, possibly due to the lack of data assimilation to constrain atmospheric reanalyses. Systematic biases are identified in the ECHAM5-wiso simulation, such as an overestimation of the mean accumulation rate and its interannual variability, a strong cold bias and an underestimation of the mean delta O-18 value and its interannual variability. As a result, relationships between simulated delta O-18 and temperature are weaker than observed. Such systematic precipitation and temperature biases are not displayed by MAR, suggesting that the model resolution plays a key role along the Antarctic ice sheet coastal topography. Interannual variations in ECHAM5-wiso temperature and precipitation accurately capture signals from meteorological data and stake observations and are used to refine the initial ice-core chronology within 2 years. After this adjustment, remarkable positive (negative) delta O-18 anomalies are identified in the ice-core record and the ECHAM5-wiso simulation in 1986 and 20
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Grazioli, J., Genthon, C., Boudevillain, B., Duran-Alarcon, C., Del Guasta, M., Madeleine, J. B., et al. (2017). Measurements of precipitation in Dumont d'Urville, Adelie Land, East Antarctica. Cryosphere, 11(4), 1797–1811.
Abstract: The first results of a campaign of intensive observation of precipitation in Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, are presented. Several instruments collected data from November 2015 to February 2016 or longer, including a polarimetric radar (MXPol), a Micro Rain Radar (MRR), a weighing gauge (Pluvio(2)), and a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC). These instruments collected the first ground-based measurements of precipitation in the region of Adelie Land (Terre Adelie), including precipitation microphysics. Microphysical observations during the austral summer 2015/2016 showed that, close to the ground level, aggregates are the dominant hydrometeor type, together with small ice particles (mostly originating from blowing snow), and that riming is a recurring process. Eleven percent of the measured particles were fully developed graupel, and aggregates had a mean riming degree of about 30 %. Spurious precipitation in the Pluvio2 measurements in windy conditions, leading to phantom accumulations, is observed and partly removed through synergistic use of MRR data. The yearly accumulated precipitation of snow (300 m above ground), obtained by means of a local conversion relation of MRR data, trained on the Pluvio2 measurement of the summer period, is estimated to be 815 mm of water equivalent, with a confidence interval ranging between 739.5 and 989 mm. Data obtained in previous research from satellite-borne radars, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide lower yearly totals: 655 mm for ERA-Interim and 679 mm for the climatological data over DDU. ERA-Interim overestimates the occurrence of low-intensity precipitation events especially in summer, but it compensates for them by underestimating the snowfall amounts carried by the most intense events. Overall, this paper provides insightful examples of the added values of precipitation monitoring in Antarctica with a synergistic use of in situ and remote sensing measurements.
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Grazioli, J., Madeleine, J. B., Gallee, H., Forbes, R. M., Genthon, C., Krinner, G., et al. (2017). Katabatic winds diminish precipitation contribution to the Antarctic ice mass balance. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 114(41), 10858–10863.
Abstract: Snowfall in Antarctica is a key term of the ice sheet mass budget that influences the sea level at global scale. Over the continental margins, persistent katabatic winds blow all year long and supply the lower troposphere with unsaturated air. We show that this dry air leads to significant low-level sublimation of snowfall. We found using unprecedented data collected over 1 year on the coast of Adelie Land and simulations from different atmospheric models that low-level sublimation accounts for a 17% reduction of total snowfall over the continent and up to 35% on the margins of East Antarctica, significantly affecting satellite-based estimations close to the ground. Our findings suggest that, as climate warming progresses, this process will be enhanced and will limit expected precipitation increases at the ground level.
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Groisman, P., Shugart, H., Kicklighter, D., Henebry, G., Tchebakova, N., Maksyutov, S., et al. (2017). Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century. Progress In Earth And Planetary Science, 4.
Abstract: During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
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Hidas, K., Tommasi, A., Mainprice, D., Chauve, T., Barou, F., & Montagnat, M. (2017). Microstructural evolution during thermal annealing of ice-I-h. Journal Of Structural Geology, 99, 31–44.
Abstract: We studied the evolution of the microstructure of ice-I-h during static recrystallization by stepwise annealing experiments. We alternated thermal annealing and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analyses on polycrystalline columnar ice pre-deformed in uniaxial compression at temperature of -7 degrees C to macroscopic strains of 3.0-5.2. Annealing experiments were carried out at -5 degrees C and -2 degrees C up to a maximum of 3.25 days, typically in 5-6 steps. EBSD crystal orientation maps obtained after each annealing step permit the description of microstructural changes. Decrease in average intragranular misorientation at the sample scale and modification of the misorientation across subgrain boundaries provide evidence for recovery from the earliest stages of annealing. This initial evolution is similar for all studied samples irrespective of their initial strain or annealing temperature. After an incubation period >= 1.5 h, recovery is accompanied by recrystallization (nucleation and grain boundary migration). Grain growth proceeds at the expense of domains with high intragranular misorientations, consuming first the most misorientated parts of primary grains. Grain growth kinetics fits the parabolic growth law with grain growth exponents in the range of 2.4-4.0. Deformation-induced tilt boundaries and kink bands may slow down grain boundary migration. They are stable features during early stages of static recrystallization, only erased by normal growth, which starts after > 24 h of annealing. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Jomelli, V., Mokadem, F., Schimmelpfennig, I., Chapron, E., Rinterknecht, V., Favier, V., et al. (2017). Sub-Antarctic glacier extensions in the Kerguelen region (49 degrees S, Indian Ocean) over the past 24,000 years constrained by Cl-36 moraine dating. Quaternary Science Reviews, 162, 128–144.
Abstract: Similar to many other regions in the world, glaciers in the southern sub-polar regions are currently retreating. In the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E), the mass balance of the Cook Ice Cap (CIC), the largest ice cap in this region, experienced dramatic shrinking between 1960 and 2013 with retreat rates among the highest in the world. This observation needs to be evaluated in a long-term context. However, data on the past glacier extents are sparse in the sub-Antarctic regions. To investigate the deglaciation pattern since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, we present the first 13 cosmogenic Cl-36 surface exposure ages from four sites in the Kerguelen Islands. The Cl-36 ages from erratic and moraine boulders span from 24.4 +/- 2.7 ka to 03 +/- 0.1 ka. We combined these ages with existing glacio-marine radiocarbon ages and bathymetric data to document the temporal and spatial changes of the island's glacial history. Ice began to retreat on the main island before 24.4 +/- 2.7 ka until around the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period (-14.5-12.9 ka), during which the Bontemps moraine was formed by the advance of a CIC outlet glacier. Deglaciation continued during the Holocene probably until 3 ka with evidence of minor advances during the last millennium. This chronology is in pace with major changes in delta O-18 in a recent West Antarctica ice core record, showing that Kerguelen Islands glaciers are particularly sensitive and relevant to document climate change in the southern polar regions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Jourdain, N. C., Mathiot, P., Merino, N., Durand, G., Le Sommer, J., Spence, P., et al. (2017). Ocean circulation and sea-ice thinning induced by melting ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 122(3), 2550–2573.
Abstract: A 1/128 ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea sector is developed to better understand the circulation induced by ice-shelf melt and the impacts on the surrounding ocean and sea ice. Eighteen sensitivity experiments to drag and heat exchange coefficients at the ice shelf/ocean interface are performed. The total melt rate simulated in each cavity is function of the thermal Stanton number, and for a given thermal Stanton number, melt is slightly higher for lower values of the drag coefficient. Sub-ice-shelf melt induces a thermohaline circulation that pumps warm circumpolar deep water into the cavity. The related volume flux into a cavity is 100-500 times stronger than the melt volume flux itself. Ice-shelf melt also induces a coastal barotropic current that contributes 45612% of the total simulated coastal transport. Due to the presence of warm circumpolar deep waters, the melt-induced inflow typically brings 4-20 times more heat into the cavities than the latent heat required for melt. For currently observed melt rates, approximately 6-31% of the heat that enters a cavity with melting potential is actually used to melt ice shelves. For increasing sub-ice-shelf melt rates, the transport in the cavity becomes stronger, and more heat is pumped from the deep layers to the upper part of the cavity then advected toward the ocean surface in front of the ice shelf. Therefore, more ice-shelf melt induces less sea-ice volume near the ice sheet margins. Plain Language Summary The ice-shelf cavities of the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, act as very powerful pumps that create strong inflows of warm water under the ice-shelves, as well as significant circulation changes in the entire region. Such warm inflows bring more heat than required to melt ice, so that a large part of that heat exits ice-shelf cavities without being used. Due to mixing between warm deep waters and melt freshwater, melt-induced flows are warm and buoyant when they leave cavities. Therefore, they reach the ocean surface near ice-shelf fronts and can melt significant amounts of sea ice. It is thus suggested that climatic trends in sub ice-shelf melt could partly explain sea ice trends near the ice-sheet margins in the Amundsen Sea region.
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Landais, A., Casado, M., Prie, F., Magand, O., Arnaud, L., Ekaykin, A., et al. (2017). Surface studies of water isotopes in Antarctica for quantitative interpretation of deep ice core data. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 349(4), 139–150.
Abstract: Polar ice cores are unique climate archives. Indeed, most of them have a continuous stratigraphy and present high temporal resolution of many climate variables in a single archive. While water isotopic records (delta D or delta O-18) in ice cores are often taken as references for past atmospheric temperature variations, their relationship to temperature is associated with a large uncertainty. Several reasons are invoked to explain the limitation of such an approach; in particular, post-deposition effects are important in East Antarctica because of the low accumulation rates. The strong influence of post-deposition processes highlights the need for surface polar research programs in addition to deep drilling programs. We present here new results on water isotopes from several recent surface programs, mostly over East Antarctica. Together with previously published data, the new data presented in this study have several implications for the climatic reconstructions based on ice core isotopic data: (1) The spatial relationship between surface mean temperature and mean snow isotopic composition over the first meters in depth can be explained quite straightforwardly using simple isotopic models tuned to d-excess vs. delta O-18 evolution in transects on the East Antarctic sector. The observed spatial slopes are significantly higher (similar to 0.7-0.8 parts per thousand. degrees C (1) for delta O-18 vs. temperature) than seasonal slopes inferred from precipitation data at Vostok and Dome C (0.35 to 0.46 parts per thousand. degrees C (1)). We explain these differences by changes in condensation versus surface temperature between summer and winter in the central East Antarctic plateau, where the inversion layer vanishes in summer. (2) Post-deposition effects linked to exchanges between the snow surface and the atmospheric water vapor lead to an evolution of delta O-18 in the surface snow, even in the absence of any precipitation event. This evolution preserves the positive correlation between the delta O-18 of snow and surface temperature, but is associated with a much slower delta O-18-vs-temperature slope than the slope observed in the seasonal precipitation. (3) Post-deposition effects clearly limit the archiving of high-resolution (seasonal) climatic variability in the polar snow, but we suggest that sites with an accumulation rate of the order of 40 kg.m (2).yr (1) may record a seasonal cycle at shallow depths. (C) 2017 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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Leduc-Leballeur, M., Picard, G., Macelloni, G., Arnaud, L., Brogioni, M., Mialon, A., et al. (2017). Influence of snow surface properties on L-band brightness temperature at Dome C, Antarctica. Remote Sensing Of Environment, 199, 427–436.
Abstract: L-band radiometer measurements collected over the Dome similar to C area from 2010 to 2015 indicated that the brightness temperature (T-B) was relatively stable at vertical (V) polarization (standard deviation lower than 1 K at annual scale), while it was slightly more variable at horizontal (H) polarization. During the 2014-2015 austral summer, an exceptional situation was recorded by both the DOMEX ground radiometer and the European Space Agency (ESA)'s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. From November 2014 to March 2015, T-B H showed a progressive and significant increase until 20 March 2015 when it sharply decreased by about 5 K (at 52.5 incidence angle) within a few days. In parallel to the increase in T-B H, glaciological and meteorological in situ measurements showed a wind speed that was lower than usual and a low-density snow layer being progressively set up on the surface. This was consistent with the exceptional hoar event observed, as well as with snow accumulation on the surface. On the other hand, the decrease in T-B H was related to the passing over Dome C of a storm that removed or compacted the layer of light snow on the surface. The WALOMIS (Wave Approach for LOw-frequency Microwave emission in Snow) snow-emission model was used with in situ measurements of the snowpack as inputs for evaluating the effect of changes observed on the snow surface in T-B H. The simulations indicated that the surface snow density variations were sufficient for predicting the increasing and decreasing trends of the T-B H. However, the thickness variations of the superficial layer were essential so as to obtain a better agreement with the SMOS observations. This result confirmed that the L-band T-B H was affected by the snow properties of the top centimeters of the snowpack, in spite of the large penetration depth (hundreds of meters). Both the surface snow density and the thickness of the superficial layer were relevant, due to coherent interference effects.
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Li, Y., Jourdain, N. C., Taschetto, A. S., Sen Gupta, A., Argueso, D., Masson, S., et al. (2017). Resolution dependence of the simulated precipitation and diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. Climate Dynamics, 48(11), 4009–4028.
Abstract: The Maritime Continent is a region of intense rainfall characterised by a strong diurnal cycle. This study investigates the sensitivity of rainfall characteristics to resolution in a coupled regional climate model configuration, in particular focusing on processes that modulate the diurnal cycle. Model biases are resolution dependent. Increasing resolution from 3/4A degrees to 1/4A degrees improves the mean state sea surface temperature and precipitation biases. However, at higher resolutions (1/12A degrees) rainfall becomes too strong in most areas. Daily maximum rainfall is simulated about 2-4 h earlier than in observations over both the land and the ocean, with only small improvements over high topography at higher resolution. We develop a technique to examine cross-coastal processes associated with the rainfall diurnal cycle along all coastlines. This is used to investigate the sensitivity of the diurnal cycle to resolution and to the direction of the prevailing wind. During offshore prevailing winds, most land rainfall is confined near the coastline and associated with a shallow land-sea breeze circulation at all resolution (though rainfall partly develops directly inland at 1/12A degrees). During onshore prevailing winds, rainfall propagates from the coastline to the island interior at 1/4A degrees and 1/12A degrees, whereas it appears directly over the island interior at 3/4A degrees, and this is associated with a deep convective cell across the coastline for all resolutions. Oceanic rainfall propagates far offshore during offshore prevailing winds at all resolutions, whereas it tends to remain confined near the coastline under onshore prevailing winds condition, particularly at higher resolution.
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Moreau, L., Lachaud, C., Thery, R., Predoi, M. V., Marsan, D., Larose, E., et al. (2017). Monitoring ice thickness and elastic properties from the measurement of leaky guided waves: A laboratory experiment. Journal Of The Acoustical Society Of America, 142(5), 2873–2880.
Abstract: The decline of Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most spectacular signatures of global warming, and studies converge to show that this decline has been accelerating over the last four decades, with a rate that is not reproduced by climate models. To improve these models, relying on comprehensive and accurate field data is essential. While sea ice extent and concentration are accurately monitored from microwave imagery, an accurate measure of its thickness is still lacking. Moreover, measuring observables related to the mechanical behavior of the ice (such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, etc.) could provide better insights in the understanding of sea ice decline, by completing current knowledge so far acquired mostly from radar and sonar data. This paper aims at demonstrating on the laboratory scale that these can all be estimated simultaneously by measuring seismic waves guided in the ice layer. The experiment consisted of leaving a water tank in a cold room in order to grow an ice layer at its surface. While its thickness was increasing, ultrasonic guided waves were generated with a piezoelectric source, and measurements were subsequently inverted to infer the thickness and mechanical properties of the ice with very good accuracy. (C) 2017 Acoustical Society of America.
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Palerme, C., Claud, C., Dufour, A., Genthon, C., Wood, N. B., & L'Ecuyer, T. (2017). Evaluation of Antarctic snowfall in global meteorological reanalyses. Atmospheric Research, 190, 104–112.
Abstract: Recent precipitation observations provided by CloudSat are used to evaluate the ability of various meteorological analyses and reanalyses to reproduce Antarctic snowfall. The performance of the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA Interim), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55), the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application 2 (MERRA-2), as well as ECMWF operational analyses are compared over the 2007-2010 period. The mean snowfall rate over Antarctica north of 82 degrees S simulated by the reanalyses between 2007 and 2010 ranges from 165 to 225 mm per year, while CloudSat observations indicate a value of 172 mm per year. ERA Interim produces the closest match to the observed snowfall rate, but all the reanalyses reproduce well the seasonal and interannual variability of Antarctic snowfall reported in CloudSat observations. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Palerme, C., Genthon, C., Claud, C., Kay, J. E., Wood, N. B., & L'Ecuyer, T. (2017). Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 48(1-2), 225–239.
Abstract: On average, the models in the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project archive predict an increase in Antarctic precipitation from 5.5 to 24.5 % between 1986-2005 and 2080-2099, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. This translates into a moderation of future sea level rise ranging from -19 to -71 mm between 2006 and 2099. However, comparison with CloudSat and ERA-Interim data show that almost all the models overestimate current Antarctic precipitation, some by more than 100 %. If only the models that agree with CloudSat data within 20 % of error are considered, larger precipitation changes (from 7.4 to 29.3 %) and impact on sea level (from -25 to -85 mm) are predicted. A common practice of averaging all models to evaluate climate projections thus leads to a significant underestimation of the contribution of Antarctic precipitation to future sea level. Models simulate, on average, a 7.4 %/A degrees C precipitation change with surface temperature warming. The models in better agreement with CloudSat observations for Antarctic snowfall predict, on average, larger temperature and Antarctic sea ice cover changes, which could explain the larger changes in Antarctic precipitation simulated by these models. The agreement between the models, CloudSat data and ERA-Interim is generally less in the interior of Antarctica than at the peripheries, but the interior is also where climate change will induce the smallest absolute change in precipitation. About three-quarters of the impact on sea level will result from precipitation change over the half most peripheral and lowest elevation part of the surface of Antarctica.
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Parrenin, F., Cavitte, M. G. P., Blankenship, D. D., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gagliardini, O., et al. (2017). Is there 1.5-million-year-old ice near Dome C, Antarctica? Cryosphere, 11(6), 2427–2437.
Abstract: Ice sheets provide exceptional archives of past changes in polar climate, regional environment and global atmospheric composition. The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching similar to 800 000 years. Obtaining an older paleoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we use internal isochrones, identified from airborne radar coupled to ice-flow modelling to estimate the age of basal ice along transects in the Dome C area. Three glaciological properties are inferred from isochrones: surface accumulation rate, geothermal flux and the exponent of the Lliboutry velocity profile. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr, 1.5 million years) likely exists in two regions: one similar to 40 km south-west of Dome C along the ice divide to Vostok, close to a secondary dome that we name “Little Dome C” (LDC), and a second region named “North Patch” (NP) located 10-30 km north-east of Dome C, in a region where the geothermal flux is apparently relatively low. Our work demonstrates the value of combining radar observations with ice flow modelling to accurately represent the true nature of ice flow, and understand the formation of ice-sheet architecture, in the centre of large ice sheets.
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Passalacqua, O., Ritz, C., Parrenin, F., Urbini, S., & Frezzotti, M. (2017). Geothermal flux and basal melt rate in the Dome C region inferred from radar reflectivity and heat modelling. Cryosphere, 11(5), 2231–2246.
Abstract: Basal melt rate is the most important physical quantity to be evaluated when looking for an old-ice drilling site, and it depends to a great extent on the geothermal flux (GF), which is poorly known under the East Antarctic ice sheet. Given that wet bedrock has higher reflectivity than dry bedrock, the wetness of the ice-bed interface can be assessed using radar echoes from the bedrock. But, since basal conditions depend on heat transfer forced by climate but lagged by the thick ice, the basal ice may currently be frozen whereas in the past it was generally melting. For that reason, the risk of bias between present and past conditions has to be evaluated. The objective of this study is to assess which locations in the Dome C area could have been protected from basal melting at any time in the past, which requires evaluating GF. We used an inverse approach to retrieve GF from radar-inferred distribution of wet and dry beds. A 1-D heat model is run over the last 800 ka to constrain the value of GF by assessing a critical ice thickness, i.e. the minimum ice thickness that would allow the present local distribution of basal melting. A regional map of the GF was then inferred over a 80 km x 130 km area, with a N-S gradient and with values ranging from 48 to 60m Wm(-2). The forward model was then emulated by a polynomial function to compute a time-averaged value of the spatially variable basal melt rate over the region. Three main subregions appear to be free of basal melting, two because of a thin overlying ice and one, north of Dome C, because of a low GF.
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Pattyn, F., Favier, L., Sun, S., & Durand, G. (2017). Progress in Numerical Modeling of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Dynamics. Current Climate Change Reports, 3(3), 174–184.
Abstract: Numerical modeling of the Antarctic ice sheet has gone through a paradigm shift over the last decade. While initially models focussed on long-time diffusive response to surface mass balance changes, processes occurring at the marine boundary of the ice sheet are progressively incorporated in newly developed state-of-the-art ice-sheet models. These models now exhibit fast, short-term volume changes, in line with current observations of mass loss. Coupling with ocean models is currently on its way and applied to key areas of the Antarctic ice sheet. New model intercomparisons have been launched, focusing on ice/ocean interaction (MISMIP+, MISOMIP) or ice-sheet model initialization and multi-ensemble projections (ISMIP6). Nevertheless, the inclusion of new processes pertaining to ice-shelf calving, evolution of basal friction, and other processes, also increase uncertainties in the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to future sea-level rise.
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Petitgirard, S., Malfait, W. J., Journaux, B., Collings, I. E., Jennings, E. S., Blanchard, I., et al. (2017). SiO2 Glass Density to Lower-Mantle Pressures. Physical Review Letters, 119(21).
Abstract: The convection or settling of matter in the deep Earth's interior is mostly constrained by density variations between the different reservoirs. Knowledge of the density contrast between solid and molten silicates is thus of prime importance to understand and model the dynamic behavior of the past and present Earth. SiO2 is the main constituent of Earth's mantle and is the reference model system for the behavior of silicate melts at high pressure. Here, we apply our recently developed x-ray absorption technique to the density of SiO2 glass up to 110 GPa, doubling the pressure range for such measurements. Our density data validate recent molecular dynamics simulations and are in good agreement with previous experimental studies conducted at lower pressure. Silica glass rapidly densifies up to 40 GPa, but the density trend then flattens to become asymptotic to the density of SiO2 minerals above 60 GPa. The density data present two discontinuities at similar to 17 and similar to 60 GPa that can be related to a silicon coordination increase from 4 to a mixed 5/6 coordination and from 5/6 to sixfold, respectively. SiO2 glass becomes denser than MgSiO3 glass at similar to 40 GPa, and its density becomes identical to that of MgSiO3 glass above 80 GPa. Our results on SiO2 glass may suggest that a variation of SiO2 content in a basaltic or pyrolitic melt with pressure has at most a minor effect on the final melt density, and iron partitioning between the melts and residual solids is the predominant factor that controls melt buoyancy in the lowermost mantle.
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Richeton, T., Le, L. T., Chauve, T., Bernacki, M., Berbenni, S., & Montagnat, M. (2017). Modelling the transport of geometrically necessary dislocations on slip systems: application to single- and multi-crystals of ice. Modelling And Simulation In Materials Science And Engineering, 25(2).
Abstract: A model based on the elastic theory of continuously distributed dislocations, accounting for the transport of geometrically necessary dislocations (GND) on slip systems is developed. It allows keeping the crystallographic nature of glide by allocating velocities specific to slip systems to GND. At grain boundaries, the dislocation transport equation is resolved between a specific system in a grain and a specific system in the adjacent grain. It is used to simulate a compression creep test followed by unloading of a multiple slip deforming multi-crystal of ice during which kink band formation, grain boundary migration and localized grain nucleation are observed. The model predictions are compared to 2D strain fields obtained by digital image correlation and show a good agreement. Besides, the kink band position corresponds very well with an area of strong lattice misorientation predicted by the model and is also bounded by opposite densities of edge dislocations, in agreement with kink banding theory and characterization. Furthermore, the grain boundary migration is observed to happen from predicted low dislocation density area towards high dislocation ones-also in agreement with the theory. Lastly, the triple junctions where nucleation is observed are also characterized by high GND density and especially strong gradient of elastic energy density. These different features show the relevance of using a continuum theory of polarized dislocations per slip system to study the onset of relaxation mechanisms like kink banding, grain boundary migration and grain nucleation and possibly to propose nucleation and migration criteria.
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Roth, D. L., Finnegan, N. J., Brodsky, E. E., Rickenmann, D., Turowski, J. M., Badoux, A., et al. (2017). Bed load transport and boundary roughness changes as competing causes of hysteresis in the relationship between river discharge and seismic amplitude recorded near a steep mountain stream. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 122(5), 1182–1200.
Abstract: Hysteresis in the relationship between bed load transport and river stage is a well-documented phenomenon with multiple known causes. Consequently, numerous studies have interpreted hysteresis in the relationship between seismic ground motion near rivers and some measure of flow strength (i.e., discharge or stage) as the signature of bed load transport. Here we test this hypothesis in the Erlenbach stream (Swiss Prealps) using a metric to quantitatively compare hysteresis in seismic data with hysteresis recorded by geophones attached beneath steel plates within the streambed, a well-calibrated proxy for direct sediment transport measurements. We find that while both the geophones and seismometers demonstrate hysteresis, the magnitude and direction of hysteresis are not significantly correlated between these data, indicating that the seismic signal at this site is primarily reflecting hysteresis in processes other than sediment transport. Seismic hysteresis also does not correlate significantly with the magnitude of sediment transport recorded by the geophones, contrary to previous studies' assumptions. We suggest that hydrologic sources and changes in water turbulence, for instance due to evolving boundary conditions at the bed, rather than changes in sediment transport rates, may sometimes contribute to or even dominate the hysteresis observed in seismic amplitudes near steep mountain rivers. Plain Language Summary An increasing number of studies have recently observed changes in the amount of seismic shaking (hysteresis) recorded near a river at a given discharge during floods. Most studies have assumed that this hysteresis was caused by changes in the amount of sediment being transported in the river and have therefore used the hysteresis to assess sediment transport rates and patterns. We examine concurrent seismic and sediment transport data from a steep mountain stream in the Swiss Prealps and find that changes in seismic shaking are unrelated and even opposed (increasing versus decreasing) to changes in sediment transport rates for four out of five transport events. Water turbulence, rather than sediment transport, appears to be the strongest source of seismic shaking, and changes in seismic shaking are most likely caused by changes in turbulence or how turbulence transmits energy through the river bed. These effects may be due to rearrangement of sediment around large boulders on the bed or slight shifting of the boulders themselves. Our results have significant implications for the growing field of fluvial seismology and the evaluation of seismic data near rivers, as previous interpretations of seismic hysteresis as evidence for sediment transport may not always be accurate.
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Royer, A., Roy, A., Montpetit, B., Saint-Jean-Rondeau, O., Picard, G., Brucker, L., et al. (2017). Comparison of commonly-used microwave radiative transfer models for snow remote sensing. Remote Sensing Of Environment, 190, 247–259.
Abstract: This paper reviews four commonly-used microwave radiative transfer models that take different electromagnetic approaches to simulate snow brightness temperature (T-B): the Dense Media Radiative Transfer – Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML), the Dense Media Radiative Transfer – Quasi-Crystalline Approximation Mie scattering of Sticky spheres (DMRT-QMS), the Helsinki University of Technology n-Layers model (HUT-nlayers) and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). Using the same extensively measured physical snow pack properties, we compared the simulated T-B at 11, 19 and 37 GHz from these four models. The analysis focuses on the impact of using different types of measured snow microstructure metrics in the simulations. In addition to density, snow microstructure is defined for each snow layer by grain optical diameter (Do) and stickiness for DMRT-ML and DMRT-QMS, mean grain geometrical maximum extent (Dmax) for HUT n-layers and the exponential correlation length for MEMLS. These metrics were derived from either in-situ measurements of snow specific surface area (SSA) or macrophotos of grain sizes (D-max), assuming non-sticky spheres for the DMRT models. Simulated T-B sensitivity analysis using the same inputs shows relatively consistent T-B behavior as a function of Do and density variations for the vertical polarization (maximum deviation of 18 K and 27 K, respectively), while some divergences appear in simulated variations for the polarization ratio (PR). Comparisons with ground based radiometric measurements show that the simulations based on snow SSA measurements have to be scaled with a model-specific factor of Do in order to minimize the root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated T-B. Results using in-situ grain size measurements (SSA or D-max, depending on the model) give a mean T-B RMSE (19 and 37 GHz) of the order of 16-26 K, which is similar for all models when the snow microstructure metrics are scaled. However, the MEMLS model converges to better results when driven by the correlation length estimated from in-situ SSA measurements rather than D-max measurements. On a practical level, this paper shows that the SSA parameter, a snow property that is easy to retrieve in-situ, appears to be the most relevant parameter for characterizing snow microstructure, despite the need for a scaling factor. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Sammonds, P., Montagnat, M., Bons, P., & Schneebeli, M. (2017). Ice microstructures and microdynamics. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 375(2086). |
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Sammonds, P., Montagnat, M., Bons, P., & Schneebeli, M. (2017). Microdynamics of ice. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 375(2086). |
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Schwander, M., Bronnimann, S., Delaygue, G., Rohrer, M., Auchmann, R., & Brugnara, Y. (2017). Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763. International Journal Of Climatology, 37, 30–44.
Abstract: Weather type classifications (WTCs) are a simple tool to analyse variations in weather patterns. Long series of WTCs could be used to address decadal changes in weather as a basis for studying changes in variability or extremes or for addressing contributions of sea-surface temperature or external forcings using climate models. However, there is no long series of daily objective weather types (WTs). A new method (Shortest Mahalanobis Distance, SMD) using daily European weather data is developed to reconstruct WTCs back in time. Here the SMD method is applied on the Cluster Analysis of Principal Components (CAP9) classification used by MeteoSwiss. The CAP9 daily WT time series (computed with ERA-40) is used as reference over the 1958-1998 period. Daily data (temperature, mean sea level pressure and pressure tendency) from 13 European stations covering the period 1763-2009 are used for the reconstruction. The reference CAP9 is reduced from nine to seven types so the new daily WTC is called CAP7. As an assessment, CAP7 is compared to the original classification CAP9 and to the same WTs computed with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRv2c). Over the reference period up to 90% of all the daily WTs can be correctly reproduced in the new WTC compared to the original series, with higher reliability in winter than in summer. In addition, the reliability of the classification is increasing from 1763 onward. The annual occurrence of each type reveals some trends, mostly a decrease in the number of cyclonic days and an increase of cyclonic days.
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Sprovieri, F., Pirrone, N., Bencardino, M., D'Amore, F., Angot, H., Barbante, C., et al. (2017). Five-year records of mercury wet deposition flux at GMOS sites in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 17(4), 2689–2708.
Abstract: The atmospheric deposition of mercury (Hg) occurs via several mechanisms, including dry and wet scavenging by precipitation events. In an effort to understand the atmospheric cycling and seasonal depositional characteristics of Hg, wet deposition samples were collected for approximately 5 years at 17 selected GMOS monitoring sites located in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project. Total mercury (THg) exhibited annual and seasonal patterns in Hg wet deposition samples. Interannual differences in total wet deposition are mostly linked with precipitation volume, with the greatest deposition flux occurring in the wettest years. This data set provides a new insight into baseline concentrations of THg concentrations in precipitation worldwide, particularly in regions such as the Southern Hemisphere and tropical areas where wet deposition as well as atmospheric Hg species were not investigated before, opening the way for future and additional simultaneous measurements across the GMOS network as well as new findings in future modeling studies.
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Travnikov, O., Angot, H., Artaxo, P., Bencardino, M., Bieser, J., D'Amore, F., et al. (2017). Multi-model study of mercury dispersion in the atmosphere: atmospheric processes and model evaluation. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 17(8), 5271–5295.
Abstract: Current understanding of mercury (Hg) behavior in the atmosphere contains significant gaps. Some key characteristics of Hg processes, including anthropogenic and geogenic emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air-surface exchange, are still poorly known. This study provides a complex analysis of processes governing Hg fate in the atmosphere involving both measured data from ground-based sites and simulation results from chemical transport models. A variety of long-term measurements of gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) and reactive Hg (RM) concentration as well as Hg wet deposition flux have been compiled from different global and regional monitoring networks. Four contemporary global-scale transport models for Hg were used, both in their state-of-the-art configurations and for a number of numerical experiments to evaluate particular processes. Results of the model simulations were evaluated against measurements. As follows from the analysis, the interhemispheric GEM gradient is largely formed by the prevailing spatial distribution of anthropogenic emissions in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of natural and secondary emissions enhance the south-to-north gradient, but their effect is less significant. Atmospheric chemistry has a limited effect on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of GEM concentration in surface air. In contrast, RM air concentration and wet deposition are largely defined by oxidation chemistry. The Br oxidation mechanism can reproduce successfully the observed seasonal variation of the RM/GEM ratio in the near-surface layer, but it predicts a wet deposition maximum in spring instead of in summer as observed at monitoring sites in North America and Europe. Model runs with OH chemistry correctly simulate both the periods of maximum and minimum values and the amplitude of observed seasonal variation but shift the maximum RM/GEM ratios from spring to summer. O-3 chemistry does not predict significant seasonal variation of Hg oxidation. Hence, the performance of the Hg oxidation mechanisms under study differs in the extent to which they can reproduce the various observed parameters. This variation implies possibility of more complex chemistry and multiple Hg oxidation pathways occurring concurrently in various parts of the atmosphere.
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Tuzet, F., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Voisin, D., et al. (2017). A multilayer physically based snowpack model simulating direct and indirect radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow. Cryosphere, 11(6), 2633–2653.
Abstract: Light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) decrease snow albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed by the snowpack. Its most intuitive and direct impact is to accelerate snowmelt. Enhanced energy absorption in snow also modifies snow metamorphism, which can indirectly drive further variations of snow albedo in the near-infrared part of the solar spectrum because of the evolution of the near-surface snow microstructure. New capabilities have been implemented in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBACrocus (referred to as Crocus) to account for impurities' deposition and evolution within the snowpack and their direct and indirect impacts. Once deposited, the model computes impurities' mass evolution until snow melts out, accounting for scavenging by meltwater. Taking advantage of the recent inclusion of the spectral radiative transfer model TARTES (Two-stream Analytical Radiative TransfEr in Snow model) in Crocus, the model explicitly represents the radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow. The model was evaluated at the Col de Porte experimental site (French Alps) during the 2013-2014 snow season against in situ standard snow measurements and spectral albedo measurements. In situ meteorological measurements were used to drive the snowpack model, except for aerosol deposition fluxes. Black carbon (BC) and dust deposition fluxes used to drive the model were extracted from simulations of the atmospheric model ALADIN-Climate. The model simulates snowpack evolution reasonably, providing similar performances to our reference Crocus version in terms of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), near-surface specific surface area (SSA) and shortwave albedo. Since the reference empirical albedo scheme was calibrated at the Col de Porte, improvements were not expected to be significant in this study. We show that the deposition fluxes from the ALADIN-Climate model provide a reasonable estimate of the amount of light-absorbing impurities deposited on the snowpack except for extreme deposition events which are greatly underestimated. For this particular season, the simulated melt-out date advances by 6 to 9 days due to the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The model makes it possible to apportion the relative importance of direct and indirect impacts of light-absorbing impurities on energy absorption in snow. For the snow season considered, the direct impact in the visible part of the solar spectrum accounts for 85% of the total impact, while the indirect impact related to accelerated snow metamorphi
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van de Wiel, B. J. H., Vignon, E., Baas, P., van Hooijdonk, I. G. S., van der Linden, S. J. A., van Hooft, J. A., et al. (2017). Regime Transitions in Near-Surface Temperature Inversions: A Conceptual Model. Journal Of The Atmospheric Sciences, 74(4), 1057–1073.
Abstract: A conceptual model is used in combination with observational analysis to understand regime transitions of near-surface temperature inversions at night as well as in Arctic conditions. The model combines a surface energy budget with a bulk parameterization for turbulent heat transport. Energy fluxes or feedbacks due to soil and radiative heat transfer are accounted for by a "lumped parameter closure,'' which represents the ``coupling strength'' of the system. Observations from Cabauw, Netherlands, and Dome C, Antarctica, are analyzed. As expected, inversions are weak for strong winds, whereas large inversions are found under weak-wind conditions. However, a sharp transition is found between those regimes, as it occurs within a narrow wind range. This results in a typical S-shaped dependency. The conceptual model explains why this characteristic must be a robust feature. Differences between the Cabauw and Dome C cases are explained from differences in coupling strength (being weaker in the Antarctic). For comparison, a realistic column model is run. As findings are similar to the simple model and the observational analysis, it suggests generality of the results. Theoretical analysis reveals that, in the transition zone near the critical wind speed, the response time of the system to perturbations becomes large. As resilience to perturbations becomes weaker, it may explain why, within this wind regime, an increase of scatter is found. Finally, the so-called heat flux duality paradox is analyzed. It is explained why numerical simulations with prescribed surface fluxes show a dynamical response different from more realistic surface-coupled systems.
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van Hooijdonk, I. G. S., Clercx, H. J. H., Abraham, C., Holdsworth, A. M., Monahan, A. H., Vignon, E., et al. (2017). Near-Surface Temperature Inversion Growth Rate during the Onset of the Stable Boundary Layer. Journal Of The Atmospheric Sciences, 74(10), 3433–3449.
Abstract: This study aims to find the typical growth rate of the temperature inversion during the onset of the stable boundary layer around sunset. The sunset transition is a very challenging period for numerical weather prediction, since neither accepted theories for the convective boundary layer nor those for the stable boundary layer appear to be applicable. To gain more insight in this period, a systematic investigation of the temperature inversion growth rate is conducted. A statistical procedure is used to analyze almost 16 years of observations from the Cabauw observational tower, supported by observations from two additional sites (Dome C and Karlsruhe). The results show that, on average, the growth rate of the temperature inversion (normalized by the maximum inversion during the night) weakly declines with increasing wind speed. The observed growth rate is quantitatively consistent among the sites, and it appears insensitive to various other parameters. The results were also insensitive to the afternoon decay rate of the net radiation except when this decay rate was very weak. These observations are compared to numerical solutions of three models with increasing complexity: a bulk model, an idealized single-column model (SCM), and an operational-level SCM. It appears only the latter could reproduce qualitative features of the observations using a first-order closure. Moreover, replacing this closure with a prognostic TKE scheme substantially improved the quantitative performance. This suggests that idealized models assuming instantaneous equilibrium flux-profile relations may not aid in understanding this period, since history effects may qualitatively affect the dynamics.
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Vignon, E., Genthon, C., Barral, H., Amory, C., Picard, G., Gallee, H., et al. (2017). Momentum- and Heat-Flux Parametrization at Dome C, Antarctica: A Sensitivity Study. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 162(2), 341–367.
Abstract: An extensive meteorological observational dataset at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, enabled estimation of the sensitivity of surface momentum and sensible heat fluxes to aerodynamic roughness length and atmospheric stability in this region. Our study reveals that (1) because of the preferential orientation of snow micro-reliefs (sastrugi), the aerodynamic roughness length varies by more than two orders of magnitude depending on the wind direction; consequently, estimating the turbulent fluxes with a realistic but constant of 1 mm leads to a mean friction velocity bias of in near-neutral conditions; (2) the dependence of the ratio of the roughness length for heat to on the roughness Reynolds number is shown to be in reasonable agreement with previous models; (3) the wide range of atmospheric stability at Dome C makes the flux very sensitive to the choice of the stability functions; stability function models presumed to be suitable for stable conditions were evaluated and shown to generally underestimate the dimensionless vertical temperature gradient; as these models differ increasingly with increases in the stability parameter z / L, heat flux and friction velocity relative differences reached when ; (4) the shallowness of the stable boundary layer is responsible for significant sensitivity to the height of the observed temperature and wind data used to estimate the fluxes. Consistent flux results were obtained with atmospheric measurements at heights up to 2 m. Our sensitivity study revealed the need to include a dynamical parametrization of roughness length over Antarctica in climate models and to develop new parametrizations of the surface fluxes in very stable conditions, accounting, for instance, for the divergence in both radiative and turbulent fluxes in the first few metres of the boundary layer.
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Vignon, E., Hourdin, F., Genthon, C., Gallee, H., Bazile, E., Lefebvre, M. P., et al. (2017). Antarctic boundary layer parametrization in a general circulation model: 1-D simulations facing summer observations at Dome C. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 122(13), 6818–6843.
Abstract: The parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is critical over the Antarctic Plateau for climate modelling since it affects the climatological temperature inversion and the negatively buoyant near-surface flow over the ice-sheet. This study challenges state-of-the-art parametrizations used in general circulation models to represent the clear-sky summertime diurnal cycle of the ABL at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. The Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique-Zoom model is run in a 1-D configuration on the fourth Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study case. Simulations are analyzed and compared to observations, giving insights into the sensitivity of one model that participates to the intercomparison exercise. Snow albedo and thermal inertia are calibrated leading to better surface temperatures. Using the so-called “thermal plume model” improves the momentum mixing in the diurnal ABL. In stable conditions, four turbulence schemes are tested. Best simulations are those in which the turbulence cuts off above 35 m in the middle of the night, highlighting the contribution of the longwave radiation in the ABL heat budget. However, the nocturnal surface layer is not stable enough to distinguish between surface fluxes computed with different stability functions. The absence of subsidence in the forcings and an underestimation of downward longwave radiation are identified to be likely responsible for a cold bias in the nocturnal ABL. Apart from model-specific improvements, the paper clarifies on which are the critical aspects to improve in general circulation models to correctly represent the summertime ABL over the Antarctic Plateau.
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Vignon, E., van de Wiel, B. J. H., van Hooijdonk, I. G. S., Genthon, C., van der Linden, S. J. A., van Hooft, J. A., et al. (2017). Stable boundary-layer regimes at Dome C, Antarctica: observation and analysis. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 143(704), 1241–1253.
Abstract: Investigation of meteorological measurements along a 45m tower at Dome C on the high East Antarctic Plateau revealed two distinct stable boundary layer (SBL) regimes at this location. The first regime is characterized by strong winds and continuous turbulence. It results in full vertical coupling of temperature, wind magnitude and wind direction in the SBL. The second regime is characterized by weak winds, associated with weak turbulent activity and very strong temperature inversions reaching up to 25 K in the lowest 10 m. Vertical temperature profiles are generally exponentially shaped (convex) in the first regime and 'convex-concave-convex' in the second. The transition between the two regimes is particularly abrupt when looking at the near-surface temperature inversion and it can be identified by a 10 m wind-speed threshold. With winds under this threshold, the turbulent heat supply toward the surface becomes significantly lower than the net surface radiative cooling. The threshold value (including its range of uncertainty) appears to agree with recent theoretical predictions from the so-called 'minimum wind speed for sustainable turbulence' (MWST) theory. For the quasi-steady, clear-sky winter cases, the relation between the near-surface inversion amplitude and the wind speed takes a characteristic 'S' shape. Closer analysis suggests that this relation corresponds to a 'critical transition' between a steady turbulent and a steady 'radiative' regime, with a dynamically unstable branch in the transition zone. These fascinating characteristics of the Antarctic boundary layer challenge present and future numerical models to represent this region in a physically correct manner.
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Wegmann, M., Orsolini, Y., Dutra, E., Bulygina, O., Sterin, A., & Bronnimann, S. (2017). Eurasian snow depth in long-term climate reanalyses. Cryosphere, 11(2), 923–935.
Abstract: Snow cover variability has significant effects on local and global climate evolution. By changing surface energy fluxes and hydrological conditions, changes in snow cover can alter atmospheric circulation and lead to remote climate effects. To document such multi-scale climate effects, atmospheric reanalysis and derived products offer the opportunity to analyze snow variability in great detail far back to the early 20th century. So far only little is know about their quality. Comparing snow depth in four long-term reanalysis datasets with Russian in situ snow depth data, we find a moderately high daily correlation (around 0.6-0.7), which is comparable to correlations for the recent era (1981-2010), and a good representation of sub-decadal variability. However, the representation of pre-1950 inter-decadal snow variability is questionable, since reanalysis products divert towards different base states. Limited availability of independent long-term snow data makes it difficult to assess the exact cause for this bifurcation in snow states, but initial investigations point towards representation of the atmosphere rather than differences in assimilated data or snow schemes. This study demonstrates the ability of long-term reanalysis to reproduce snow variability accordingly.
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Weiss, J., & Dansereau, V. (2017). Linking scales in sea ice mechanics. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 375(2086).
Abstract: Mechanics plays a key role in the evolution of the sea ice cover through its control on drift, on momentum and thermal energy exchanges between the polar oceans and the atmosphere along cracks and faults, and on ice thickness distribution through opening and ridging processes. At the local scale, a significant variability of the mechanical strength is associated with the microstructural heterogeneity of saline ice, however characterized by a small correlation length, below the ice thickness scale. Conversely, the sea ice mechanical fields (velocity, strain and stress) are characterized by long-ranged (more than 1000 km) and long-lasting (approx. few months) correlations. The associated space and time scaling laws are the signature of the brittle character of sea ice mechanics, with deformation resulting from a multi-scale accumulation of episodic fracturing and faulting events. To translate the short-range-correlated disorder on strength into long-range-correlated mechanical fields, several key ingredients are identified: long-ranged elastic interactions, slow driving conditions, a slow viscous-like relaxation of elastic stresses and a restoring/healing mechanism. These ingredients constrained the development of a new continuum mechanics modelling framework for the sea ice cover, called Maxwell-elasto-brittle. Idealized simulations without advection demonstrate that this rheological framework reproduces the main characteristics of sea ice mechanics, including anisotropy, spatial localization and intermittency, as well as the associated scaling laws. This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.
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Xia, J. Y., McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, G. S., Chen, X. D., et al. (2017). Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 122(2), 430–446.
Abstract: Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 +/- 6gCm(-2) yr (-1)), most models produced higher NPP (309 +/- 12 g Cm-2 yr(-1)) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g Cm-2 yr(-1)), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP(max)). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25 degrees C (V-cmax_(25)), respectively. Themodels also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP(max) as well as their sensitivity to climate change.
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Young, D. A., Roberts, J. L., Ritz, C., Frezzotti, M., Quartini, E., Cavitte, M. G. P., et al. (2017). High-resolution boundary conditions of an old ice target near Dome C, Antarctica. Cryosphere, 11(4), 1897–1911.
Abstract: A high-resolution (1 km line spacing) aerogeophysical survey was conducted over a region near the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's Dome C that may hold a 1.5 Myr climate record. We combined new ice thickness data derived from an airborne coherent radar sounder with unpublished data that was in part unavailable for earlier compilations, and we were able to remove older data with high positional uncertainties. We generated a revised high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to investigate the potential for an old ice record in this region, and used laser altimetry to confirm a Cryosat-2 derived DEM for inferring the glaciological state of the candidate area. By measuring the specularity content of the bed, we were able to find an additional 50 subglacial lakes near the candidate site, and by Doppler focusing the radar data, we were able to map out the roughness of the bed at length scales of hundreds of meters. We find that the primary candidate region contains elevated rough topography interspersed with scattered subglacial lakes and some regions of smoother bed. Free subglacial water appears to be restricted from bed overlain by ice thicknesses of less than 3000 m. A site near the ice divide was selected for further investigation. The high resolution of this ice thickness data set also allows us to explore the nature of ice thickness uncertainties in the context of radar geometry and processing
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Zhang, T., Price, S., Ju, L. L., Leng, W., Brondex, J., Durand, G., et al. (2017). A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). Cryosphere, 11(1), 179–190.
Abstract: We present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two “full” Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al., 2012) and Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MIS-MIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (<2% difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding lines are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along-and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.
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Zolina, O., Dufour, A., Gulev, S. K., & Stenchikov, G. (2017). Regional Hydrological Cycle over the Red Sea in ERA-Interim. Journal Of Hydrometeorology, 18(1), 65–83.
Abstract: The major sources of atmospheric moisture over the Red Sea are analyzed using ERA-Interim for the 1979-2013 period. The vertical structure of moisture transports across the coastlines has been computed separately for the western and eastern coasts of the Red Sea. The vertical structure of the moisture transport from the Red Sea to the continents is dominated by a breeze-like circulation in the near-surface layer and the Arabian high above 850 hPa. The lower-layer, breeze-like circulation is acting to export the moisture to the northwest of Africa and to the Arabian Peninsula and contributes about 80% of the moisture exports from the Red Sea, dominating over the transport in the upper layer, where the moisture is advected to the Arabian Peninsula in the northern part of the sea and to the African continent in the southern part. Integrated moisture divergence over the Red Sea decreased from the early 1980s to 1997 and then increased until the 2010s. Associated changes in the moisture export were provided primarily by the increasing intensity of the breeze-associated transports. The transports above the boundary layer, while being strong across the western and the eastern coasts, have a smaller effect on the net moisture export. The interannual variability of the moisture export in the near-surface layer was found to be closely correlated with the variability in sea surface temperature, especially in summer. Implications of the observed changes in the moisture advection for the hydrological cycle of the Middle East are discussed.
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2016 |
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Amory, C., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Gallee, H., & Vignon, E. (2016). Brief communication: Two well-marked cases of aerodynamic adjustment of sastrugi. Cryosphere, 10(2), 743–750.
Abstract: In polar regions, sastrugi are a direct manifestation of drifting snow and form the main surface roughness elements. In turn, sastrugi alter the generation of atmospheric turbulence and thus modify the wind field and the aeolian snow mass fluxes. Little attention has been paid to these feedback processes, mainly because of experimental difficulties. As a result, most polar atmospheric models currently ignore sastrugi over snow-covered regions. This paper aims at quantifying the potential influence of sastrugi on the local wind field and on snow erosion over a sastrugi-covered snowfield in coastal Ad,lie Land, East Antarctica. We focus on two erosion events during which sastrugi responses to shifts in wind direction have been interpreted from temporal variations in drag and aeolian snow mass flux measurements during austral winter 2013. Using this data set, it is shown that (i) neutral stability, 10aEuro-m drag coefficient (C-DN10) values are in the range of 1.3-1.5 x 10(-3) when the wind is well aligned with the sastrugi, (ii) as the wind shifts by only 20-30A degrees away from the streamlined direction, C-DN10 increases (by 30-120aEuro-%) and the aeolian snow mass flux decreases (by 30-80aEuro-%), thereby reflecting the growing contribution of the sastrugi form drag to the total surface drag and its inhibiting effect on snow erosion, (iii) the timescale of sastrugi aerodynamic adjustment can be as short as 3aEuro-h for friction velocities greater than 1aEuro-maEuro-s(-1) and during strong drifting snow conditions and (iv) knowing C-DN10 is not sufficient to estimate the snow erosion flux that results from drag partitioning at the surface because C-DN10 includes the contribution of the sastrugi form drag.
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Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., et al. (2016). Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP+), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP+) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1). Geoscientific Model Development, 9(7), 2471–2497.
Abstract: Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project ( MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects ( MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ( WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase ( MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase ( ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase ( MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations ( MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations ( MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.
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Avanzi, F., De Michele, C., Morin, S., Carmagnola, C. M., Ghezzi, A., & Lejeune, Y. (2016). Model complexity and data requirements in snow hydrology: seeking a balance in practical applications. Hydrological Processes, 30(13), 2106–2118.
Abstract: We investigate the problem of balancing model complexity and input data requirements in snow hydrology. For this purpose, we analyze the performance of two models of different complexity in estimating variables of interest in snow hydrology applications. These are snow depth, bulk snow density, snow water equivalent and snowmelt run-off. We quantify the differences between data and model prediction using 18years of measurements from an experimental site in the French Alps (Col de Porte, 1325m AMSL). The models involved in this comparison are a one-layer temperature-index model (HyS) and a multilayer model (Crocus). Results show that the expected loss in performance in the one-layer temperature-index model with respect to the multilayer model is low when considering snow depth, snow water equivalent and bulk snow density. As for run-off, the comparison returns less clear indications for identification of a balance. In particular, differences between the models' prediction and data with an hourly resolution are higher when considering the Crocus model than the HyS model. However, Crocus is better at reproducing sub-daily cycles in this variable. In terms of daily run-off, the multilayer physically based model seems to be a better choice, while results in terms of cumulative run-off are comparable. The better reproduction of daily and sub-daily variability of run-off suggests that use of the multilayer model may be preferable for this purpose. Variation in performance is discussed as a function of both the calibration solution chosen and the time of year. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bazin, L., Landais, A., Capron, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Ritz, C., Picard, G., et al. (2016). Phase relationships between orbital forcing and the composition of air trapped in Antarctic ice cores. Climate Of The Past, 12(3), 729–748.
Abstract: Orbital tuning is central for ice core chronologies beyond annual layer counting, available back to 60 ka (i.e. thousands of years before 1950) for Greenland ice cores. While several complementary orbital tuning tools have recently been developed using delta O-18(atm), delta O-2/N-2 and air content with different orbital targets, quantifying their uncertainties remains a challenge. Indeed, the exact processes linking variations of these parameters, measured in the air trapped in ice, to their orbital targets are not yet fully understood. Here, we provide new series of delta O-2/N-2 and delta O-18(atm) data encompassing Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 (between 100 and 160 ka) and the oldest part (340-800 ka) of the East Antarctic EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core. For the first time, the measurements over MIS 5 allow an inter-comparison of delta O-2/N-2 and delta O-18(atm) records from three East Antarctic ice core sites (EDC, Vostok and Dome F). This comparison highlights some site-specific delta O-2/N-2 variations. Such an observation, the evidence of a 100 ka periodicity in the delta O-2/N-2 signal and the difficulty to identify extrema and mid-slopes in delta O-2/N-2 increase the uncertainty associated with the use of delta O-2/N-2 as an orbital tuning tool, now calculated to be 3-4 ka. When combining records of delta O-18(atm) and delta O-2/N-2 from Vostok and EDC, we find a loss of orbital signature for these two parameters during periods of minimum eccentricity (similar to 400 ka, 720-800 ka). Our data set reveals a time-varying offset between delta O-2/N-2 and delta O-18(atm) records over the last 800 ka that we interpret as variations in the lagged response of delta O-18(atm) to precession. The largest offsets are identified during Terminations II, MIS 8 and MIS 16, corresponding to periods of destabilization of the Northern polar ice sheets. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of Heinrich like events influences the response of delta O-18(atm) to precession.
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Bock, J., Savarino, J., & Picard, G. (2016). Air-snow exchange of nitrate: a modelling approach to investigate physicochemical processes in surface snow at Dome C, Antarctica. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 16(19), 12531–12550.
Abstract: Snowpack is a multiphase (photo) chemical reactor that strongly influences the air composition in polar and snow-covered regions. Snowpack plays a special role in the nitrogen cycle, as it has been shown that nitrate undergoes numerous recycling stages (including photolysis) in the snow before being permanently buried in the ice. However, the current understanding of these physicochemical processes remains very poor. Several modelling studies have attempted to reproduce (photo) chemical reactions inside snow grains, but these have relied on strong assumptions to characterise snow reactive properties, which are not well defined. Air-snow exchange processes such as adsorption, solid-state diffusion, or co-condensation also affect snow chemical composition. Here, we present a physically based model of these processes for nitrate. Using as input a 1-year-long time series of atmospheric nitrate concentration measured at Dome C, Antarctica, our model reproduces with good agreement the nitrate measurements in the surface snow. By investigating the relative importance of the main exchange processes, this study shows that, on the one hand, the combination of bulk diffusion and co-condensation allows a good reproduction of the measurements (correlation coefficient r = 0.95), with a correct amplitude and timing of summer peak concentration of nitrate in snow. During winter, nitrate concentration in surface snow is mainly driven by thermodynamic equilibrium, whilst the peak observed in summer is explained by the kinetic process of co-condensation. On the other hand, the adsorption of nitric acid on the surface of the snow grains, constrained by an already existing parameterisation for the isotherm, fails to fit the observed variations. During winter and spring, the modelled concentration of adsorbed nitrate is respectively 2.5 and 8.3-fold higher than the measured one. A strong diurnal variation driven by the temperature cycle and a peak occurring in early spring are two other major features that do not match the measurements. This study clearly demonstrates that co-condensation is the most important process to explain nitrate incorporation in snow undergoing temperature gradient metamorphism. The parameterisation developed for this process can now be used as a foundation piece in snowpack models to predict the inter-relationship between snow physical evolution and snow nitrate chemistry.
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Boike, J., Grau, T., Heim, B., Gunther, F., Langer, M., Muster, S., et al. (2016). Satellite-derived changes in the permafrost landscape of central Yakutia, 2000-2011: Wetting, drying, and fires. Global And Planetary Change, 139, 116–127.
Abstract: The focus of this research has been on detecting changes in lake areas, vegetation, land surface temperatures, and the area covered by snow, using data from remote sensing. The study area covers the main (central) part of the Lena River catchment in the Yakutia region of Siberia (Russia), extending from east of Yakutsk to the central Siberian Plateau, and from the southern Lena River to north of the Vilyui River. Approximately 90% of the area is underlain by continuous permafrost. Remote sensing products were used to analyze changes in water bodies, land surface temperature (1ST), and leaf area index (LAI), as well as the occurrence and extent of forest fires, and the area and duration of snow cover. The remote sensing analyses (for 1ST, snow cover, LAI, and fire) were based on MODIS-derived NASA products (250-1000 m) for 2000 to 2011. Changes in water bodies were calculated from two mosaics of (USGS) Landsat (30 m) satellite images from 2002 and 2009. Within the study area's 315,000 km(2) the total area covered by lakes increased by 17.9% between 2002 and 2009, but this increase varied in different parts of the study area, ranging between 11% and 42%. The land surface temperatures showed a consistent warming trend, with an average increase of about 0.12 degrees C/year. The average rate of warming during the April-May transition period was 0.17 degrees C/year and 0.19 degrees C/year in the September-October period, but ranged up to 0.49 degrees C/year during September-October. Regional differences in the rates of land surface temperature change, and possible reasons for the temperature changes, are discussed with respect to changes in the land cover. Our analysis of a broad spectrum of variables over the study area suggests that the spring warming trend is very likely to be due to changes in the area covered by snow. The warming trend observed in fall does not, however, appear to be directly related to any changes in the area of snow cover, or to the atmospheric conditions, or to the proportion of the land surface that is covered by water (i.e., to wetting and drying). Supplementary data (original data, digitized version of the maps, metadata) are archived under PANGAEA (http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.855124). (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Calle, L., Canadell, J. G., Patra, P., Ciais, P., Ichii, K., Tian, H. Q., et al. (2016). Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980-2009. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7).
Abstract: We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food andAgriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and South Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%-40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%-25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg Cyr(-1), whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of -0.17 Pg Cyr(-1). Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990-2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.
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Casado, M., Landais, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Genthon, C., Kerstel, E., Kassi, S., et al. (2016). Continuous measurements of isotopic composition of water vapour on the East Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 16(13), 8521–8538.
Abstract: Water stable isotopes in central Antarctic ice cores are critical to quantify past temperature changes. Accurate temperature reconstructions require one to understand the processes controlling surface snow isotopic composition. Isotopic fractionation processes occurring in the atmosphere and controlling snowfall isotopic composition are well understood theoretically and implemented in atmospheric models. However, post-deposition processes are poorly documented and understood. To quantitatively interpret the isotopic composition of water archived in ice cores, it is thus essential to study the continuum between surface water vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow. Here, we target the isotopic composition of water vapour at Concordia Station, where the oldest EPICA Dome C ice cores have been retrieved. While snowfall and surface snow sampling is routinely performed, accurate measurements of surface water vapour are challenging in such cold and dry conditions. New developments in infrared spectroscopy enable now the measurement of isotopic composition in water vapour traces. Two infrared spectrometers have been deployed at Concordia, allowing continuous, in situ measurements for 1 month in December 2014-January 2015. Comparison of the results from infrared spectroscopy with laboratory measurements of discrete samples trapped using cryo-genic sampling validates the relevance of the method to measure isotopic composition in dry conditions. We observe very large diurnal cycles in isotopic composition well correlated with temperature diurnal cycles. Identification of different behaviours of isotopic composition in the water vapour associated with turbulent or stratified regime indicates a strong impact of meteorological processes in local vapour/snow interaction. Even if the vapour isotopic composition seems to be, at least part of the time, at equilibrium with the local snow, the slope of delta D against delta O-18 prevents us from identifying a unique origin leading to this isotopic composition.
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Cavitte, M. G. P., Blankenship, D. D., Young, D. A., Schroeder, D. M., Parrenin, F., Lemeur, E., et al. (2016). Deep radiostratigraphy of the East Antarctic plateau: connecting the Dome C and Vostok ice core sites. Journal Of Glaciology, 62(232), 323–334.
Abstract: Several airborne radar-sounding surveys are used to trace internal reflections around the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C and Vostok ice core sites. Thirteen reflections, spanning the last two glacial cycles, are traced within 200 km of Dome C, a promising region for million-year-old ice, using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics High-Capacity Radar Sounder. This provides a dated stratigraphy to 2318 m depth at Dome C. Reflection age uncertainties are calculated from the radar range precision and signal-to-noise ratio of the internal reflections. The radar stratigraphy matches well with the Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) radar stratigraphy obtained independently. We show that radar sounding enables the extension of ice core ages through the ice sheet with an additional radar-related age uncertainty of similar to 1/3-1/2 that of the ice cores. Reflections are extended along the Byrd-Totten Glacier divide, using University of Texas/Technical University of Denmark and MCoRDS surveys. However, core-to-core connection is impeded by pervasive aeolian terranes, and Lake Vostok's influence on reflection geometry. Poor radar connection of the two ice cores is attributed to these effects and suboptimal survey design in affected areas. We demonstrate that, while ice sheet internal radar reflections are generally isochronal and can be mapped over large distances, careful survey planning is necessary to extend ice core chronologies to distant regions of the East Antarctic ice sheet.
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Chang, J. F., Ciais, P., Herrero, M., Havlik, P., Campioli, M., Zhang, X. Z., et al. (2016). Combining livestock production information in a process-based vegetation model to reconstruct the history of grassland management. Biogeosciences, 13(12), 3757–3776.
Abstract: Grassland management type (grazed or mown) and intensity (intensive or extensive) play a crucial role in the greenhouse gas balance and surface energy budget of this biome, both at field scale and at large spatial scale. However, global gridded historical information on grassland management intensity is not available. Combining modelled grass-biomass productivity with statistics of the grass-biomass demand by livestock, we reconstruct gridded maps of grassland management intensity from 1901 to 2012. These maps include the minimum area of managed vs. maximum area of unmanaged grasslands and the fraction of mown vs. grazed area at a resolution of 0.5A degrees by 0.5A degrees. The grass-biomass demand is derived from a livestock dataset for 2000, extended to cover the period 1901-2012. The grass-biomass supply (i.e. forage grass from mown grassland and biomass grazed) is simulated by the process-based model ORCHIDEE-GM driven by historical climate change, risingaEuro-CO2 concentration, and changes in nitrogen fertilization. The global area of managed grassland obtained in this study increases from 6.1aEuro-aEuro parts per thousand x aEuro-10(6)aEuro-km(2) in 1901 to 12.3aEuro-aEuro parts per thousand x aEuro-10(6)aEuro-km(2) in 2000, although the expansion pathway varies between different regions. ORCHIDEE-GM also simulated augmentation in global mean productivity and herbage-use efficiency over managed grassland during the 20th century, indicating a general intensification of grassland management at global scale but with regional differences. The gridded grassland management intensity maps are model dependent because they depend on modelled productivity. Thus specific attention was given to the evaluation of modelled productivity against a series of observations from site-level net primary productivity (NPP) measurements to two global satellite products of gross primary productivity (GPP) (MODIS-GPP and SIF data). Generally, ORCHIDEE-GM captures the spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of grassland productivity at global scale well and thus is appropriate for global applications presented here.
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Charrois, L., Cosme, E., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Morin, S., Libois, Q., et al. (2016). On the assimilation of optical reflectances and snow depth observations into a detailed snowpack model. Cryosphere, 10(3), 1021–1038.
Abstract: This paper examines the ability of optical reflectance data assimilation to improve snow depth and snow water equivalent simulations from a chain of models with the SAFRAN meteorological model driving the detailed multilayer snowpack model Crocus now including a two-stream radiative transfer model for snow, TARTES. The direct use of reflectance data, allowed by TARTES, instead of higher level snow products, mitigates uncertainties due to commonly used retrieval algorithms.Data assimilation is performed with an ensemble-based method, the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle filter, to represent simulation uncertainties. In snowpack modeling, uncertainties of simulations are primarily assigned to meteorological forcings. Here, a method of stochastic perturbation based on an autoregressive model is implemented to explicitly simulate the consequences of these uncertainties on the snowpack estimates.Through twin experiments, the assimilation of synthetic spectral reflectances matching the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spectral bands is examined over five seasons at the Col du Lautaret, located in the French Alps. Overall, the assimilation of MODIS-like data reduces by 45aEuro-% the root mean square errors (RMSE) on snow depth and snow water equivalent. At this study site, the lack of MODIS data on cloudy days does not affect the assimilation performance significantly. The combined assimilation of MODIS-like reflectances and a few snow depth measurements throughout the 2010/2011 season further reduces RMSEs by roughly 70aEuro-%. This work suggests that the assimilation of optical reflectances has the potential to become an essential component of spatialized snowpack simulation and forecast systems. The assimilation of real MODIS data will be investigated in future works.
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Chuvieco, E., Yue, C., Heil, A., Mouillot, F., Alonso-Canas, I., Padilla, M., et al. (2016). A new global burned area product for climate assessment of fire impacts. Global Ecology And Biogeography, 25(5), 619–629.
Abstract: Aim This paper presents a new global burned area (BA) product developed within the framework of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme, along with a first assessment of its potentials for atmospheric and carbon cycle modelling. Innovation Methods are presented for generating a new global BA product, along with a comparison with existing BA products, in terms of BA extension, fire size and shapes and emissions derived from biomass burnings. Main conclusions Three years of the global BA product were produced, accounting for a total BA of between 360 and 380 Mha year(-1). General omission and commission errors for BA were 0.76 and 0.64, but they decreased to 0.51 and 0.52, respectively, for sites with more than 10% BA. Intercomparison with other existing BA datasets found similar spatial and temporal trends, mainly with the BA included in the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4), although regional differences were found (particularly in the 2006 fires of eastern Europe). The simulated carbon emissions from biomass burning averaged 2.1 Pg C year(-1).
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Crichton, K. A., Bouttes, N., Roche, D. M., Chappellaz, J., & Krinner, G. (2016). Permafrost carbon as a missing link to explain CO2 changes during the last deglaciation. Nature Geoscience, 9(9), 683–+.
Abstract: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from 190 to 280 ppm between the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago and the pre-industrial era(1,2). This CO2 rise and its timing have been linked to changes in the Earth's orbit, ice sheet configuration and volume, and ocean carbon storage(2,3). The ice-core record of delta(CO2)-C-13 (refs 2,4) in the atmosphere can help to constrain the source of carbon, but previous modelling studies have failed to capture the evolution of delta(CO2)-C-13 over this period(5). Here we show that simulations of the last deglaciation that include a permafrost carbon component can reproduce the ice core records between 21,000 and 10,000 years ago. We suggest that thawing permafrost, due to increasing summer insolation in the northern hemisphere, is the main source of CO2 rise between 17,500 and 15,000 years ago, a period sometimes referred to as the Mystery Interval(6). Together with a fresh water release into the North Atlantic, much of the CO2 variability associated with the Bolling-Allerod/Younger Dryas period similar to 15,000 to similar to 12,000 years ago can also be explained. In simulations of future warming we find that the permafrost carbon feedback increases global mean temperature by 10-40% relative to simulations without this feedback, with the magnitude of the increase dependent on the evolution of anthropogenic carbon emissions.
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Dansereau, V., Weiss, J., Saramito, P., & Lattes, P. (2016). A Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology for sea ice modelling. Cryosphere, 10(3), 1339–1359.
Abstract: A new rheological model is developed that builds on an elasto-brittle (EB) framework used for sea ice and rock mechanics, with the intent of representing both the small elastic deformations associated with fracturing processes and the larger deformations occurring along the faults/leads once the material is highly damaged and fragmented. A viscous-like relaxation term is added to the linear-elastic constitutive law together with an effective viscosity that evolves according to the local level of damage of the material, like its elastic modulus. The coupling between the level of damage and both mechanical parameters is such that within an undamaged ice cover the viscosity is infinitely large and deformations are strictly elastic, while along highly damaged zones the elastic modulus vanishes and most of the stress is dissipated through permanent deformations. A healing mechanism is also introduced, counterbalancing the effects of damaging over large timescales. In this new model, named Maxwell-EB after the Maxwell rheology, the irreversible and reversible deformations are solved for simultaneously; hence drift velocities are defined naturally. First idealized simulations without advection show that the model reproduces the main characteristics of sea ice mechanics and deformation: strain localization, anisotropy, intermittency and associated scaling laws.
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Domine, F., Barrere, M., & Morin, S. (2016). The growth of shrubs on high Arctic tundra at Bylot Island: impact on snow physical properties and permafrost thermal regime. Biogeosciences, 13(23), 6471–6486.
Abstract: With climate warming, shrubs have been observed to grow on Arctic tundra. Their presence is known to increase snow height and is expected to increase the thermal insulating effect of the snowpack. An important consequence would be the warming of the ground, which will accelerate permafrost thaw, providing an important positive feedback to warming. At Bylot Island (73 degrees N, 80 degrees W) in the Canadian high Arctic where bushes of willows (Salix richardsonii Hook) are growing, we have observed the snow stratigraphy and measured the vertical profiles of snow density, thermal conductivity and specific surface area (SSA) in over 20 sites of high Arctic tundra and in willow bushes 20 to 40 cm high. We find that shrubs increase snow height, but only up to their own height. In shrubs, snow density, thermal conductivity and SSA are all significantly lower than on herb tundra. In shrubs, depth hoar which has a low thermal conductivity was observed to grow up to shrub height, while on herb tundra, depth hoar only developed to 5 to 10 cm high. The thermal resistance of the snowpack was in general higher in shrubs than on herb tundra. More signs of melting were observed in shrubs, presumably because stems absorb radiation and provide hotspots that initiate melting. When melting was extensive, thermal conductivity was increased and thermal resistance was reduced, counteracting the observed effect of shrubs in the absence of melting. Simulations of the effect of shrubs on snow properties and on the ground thermal regime were made with the Crocus snow physics model and the ISBA (Interactions between Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere) land surface scheme, driven by in situ and reanalysis meteorological data. These simulations did not take into account the summer impact of shrubs. They predict that the ground at 5 cm depth at Bylot Island during the 2014-2015 winter would be up to 13 degrees C warmer in the presence of shrubs. Such warming may however be mitigated by summer effects.
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Domine, F., Barrere, M., & Sarrazin, D. (2016). Seasonal evolution of the effective thermal conductivity of the snow and the soil in high Arctic herb tundra at Bylot Island, Canada. Cryosphere, 10(6), 2573–2588.
Abstract: The values of the snow and soil thermal conductivity, k(snow) and k(soil), strongly impact the thermal regime of the ground in the Arctic, but very few data are available to test model predictions for these variables. We have monitored k(snow) and k(soil) using heated needle probes at Bylot Island in the Canadian High Arctic (73 degrees N, 80 degrees W) between July 2013 and July 2015. Few k(snow) data were obtained during the 2013-2014 winter, because little snow was present. During the 2014-2015 winter k(snow) monitoring at 2, 12 and 22 cm heights and field observations show that a depth hoar layer with k(snow) around 0.02 Wm(-1) K-1 rapidly formed. At 12 and 22 cm, wind slabs with k(snow) around 0.2 to 0.3 Wm(-1) K-1 formed. The monitoring of ksoil at 10 cm depth shows that in thawed soil k(soil) was around 0.7 Wm(-1) K-1, while in frozen soil it was around 1.9 Wm(-1) (K-)1. The transition between both values took place within a few days, with faster thawing than freezing and a hysteresis effect evidenced in the thermal conductivity-liquid water content relationship. The fast transitions suggest that the use of a bimodal distribution of k(soil) for modelling may be an interesting option that deserves further testing. Simulations of k(snow) using the snow physics model Crocus were performed. Contrary to observations, Crocus predicts high k(snow) values at the base of the snowpack (0.12-0.27 Wm(-1) K-1) and low ones in its upper parts (0.02-0.12 Wm(-1) K-1). We diagnose that this is because Crocus does not describe the large upward water vapour fluxes caused by the temperature gradient in the snow and soil. These fluxes produce mass transfer between the soil and lower snow layers to the upper snow layers and the atmosphere. Finally, we discuss the importance of the structure and properties of the Arctic snowpack on subnivean life, as species such as lemmings live under the snow most of the year and must travel in the lower snow layer in search of food.
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Dufour, A., Zolina, O., & Gulev, S. K. (2016). Atmospheric Moisture Transport to the Arctic: Assessment of Reanalyses and Analysis of Transport Components. Journal Of Climate, 29(14), 5061–5081.
Abstract: The atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979-2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports ( 89%-94% at 70 degrees N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface.
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Favier, V., Verfaillie, D., Berthier, E., Menegoz, M., Jomelli, V., Kay, J. E., et al. (2016). Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean. Scientific Reports, 6.
Abstract: The ongoing retreat of glaciers at southern sub-polar latitudes is particularly rapid and widespread. Akin to northern sub-polar latitudes, this retreat is generally assumed to be linked to warming. However, no long-term and well-constrained glacier modeling has ever been performed to confirm this hypothesis. Here, we model the Cook Ice Cap mass balance on the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Indian Ocean, 49 degrees S) since the 1850s. We show that glacier wastage during the 2000s in the Kerguelen was among the most dramatic on Earth. We attribute 77% of the increasingly negative mass balance since the 1960s to atmospheric drying associated with a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track. Because precipitation modeling is very challenging for the current generation of climate models over the study area, models incorrectly simulate the climate drivers behind the recent glacier wastage in the Kerguelen. This suggests that future glacier wastage projections should be considered cautiously where changes in atmospheric circulation are expected.
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Furst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., et al. (2016). The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 479–482.
Abstract: The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice(1,2). Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow(3,4), which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as 'passive shelf ice' and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no 'passive' portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades' and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability(6,7). In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large 'passive' frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg(8) will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.
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Gagliardini, O., Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Peyaud, V., & Durand, G. (2016). Brief communication: Impact of mesh resolution for MISMIP and MISMIP3d experiments using Elmer/Ice. Cryosphere, 10(1), 307–312.
Abstract: The dynamical contribution of marine ice sheets to sea level rise is largely controlled by grounding line (GL) dynamics. Two marine ice sheet model intercomparison exercises, namely MISMIP and MISMIP3d, have been proposed to the community to test and compare the ability of models to capture the GL dynamics. Both exercises are known to present a discontinuity of the friction at the GL, which is believed to increase the model sensitivity to mesh resolution. Here, using Elmer/Ice, the only Stokes model which completed both intercomparisons, the sensitivity to the mesh resolution is studied from an extended MISMIP experiment in which the friction continuously decreases over a transition distance and equals zero at the GL. Using this MISMIP-like setup, it is shown that the sensitivity to the mesh resolution is not improved for a vanishing friction at the GL. For the original MISMIP experiment, i.e. for a discontinuous friction at the GL, we further show that the results are moreover very sensitive to the way the friction is interpolated in the close vicinity of the GL. In the light of these new insights, and thanks to increased computing resources, new results for the MISMIP3d experiments obtained for higher resolutions than previously published are made available for future comparisons as the Supplement.
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Genthon, C., Six, D., Scarchilli, C., Ciardini, V., & Frezzotti, M. (2016). Meteorological and snow accumulation gradients across Dome C, East Antarctic plateau. International Journal Of Climatology, 36(1), 455–466.
Abstract: In situ observations show that snow accumulation is similar to 10% larger 25 km north than south of the summit of Dome C on the east antarctic plateau. The mean wind direction is southerly. Although a slight slope-related diverging katabatic flow component is detectable, the area is an essentially flat (similar to 10m elevation change or less) homogeneous snow surface. The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts meteorological analyses data reproduce a significant accumulation gradient and suggest that 90% of the the mean accumulation results from the 25% largest precipitation events. During these events, air masses originate from coastal areas in the north rather than from inland in the south. Radiative cooling condensation occurs on the way across the dome and as the moisture reservoir is depleted less snow is dumped 25 km south than north, with little direct impact from the local (50-km scale) topography. Air masses are warmer on average, and warmer north than south, when originating from the coast. This marginally affects the mean temperature gradients. The moisture gradients are more affected because moisture is nonlinearly related to temperature: the mean atmospheric moisture is larger north than south. Significant meteorological and hydrological gradients over such relatively small distances (50 km) over locally flat region may be an issue when interpreting ice cores: although cores are drilled at the top of domes and ridges where the slopes and elevation gradients are minimal, they sample small surfaces in areas affected by significant meteorological and hydrological spatial gradients.
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Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Mosbeux, C., Mouginot, J., Rémy, F., et al. (2016). Assimilation of surface velocities acquired between 1996 and 2010 to constrain the form of the basal friction law under Pine Island Glacier. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(19), 10,311–10,321.
Abstract: Abstract In ice-sheet models, slip conditions at the base between the ice and the bed are parameterized by a friction law. The most common relation has two poorly constrained parameters, C and m. The basal slipperiness coefficient, C, depends on local unobserved quantities and is routinely inferred using inverse methods. While model results have shown that transient responses to external forcing are highly sensitive to the stress exponent m, no consensus value has emerged, with values commonly used ranging from 1 to ∞ depending on the slip processes. By assimilation of Pine Island Glacier surface velocities from 1996 to 2010, we show that observed accelerations are best reproduced with m>=5. We conclude that basal motion, in much of the fast flowing region, is governed by plastic deformation of the underlying sediments. This implies that the glacier bed in this area cannot deliver resistive stresses higher than today, making the drainage basin potentially more sensitive to dynamical perturbations than predicted with models using standard values m = 1 or 3.
Keywords: ice flow modeling; subglacial conditions; inverse modeling
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Jomelli, V., Lane, T., Favier, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Swingedouw, D., Rinterknecht, V., et al. (2016). Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic. Scientific Reports, 6.
Abstract: In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbraeen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbraeen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in similar to 1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.
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Jordan, T. M., Bamber, J. L., Williams, C. N., Paden, J. D., Siegert, M. J., Huybrechts, P., et al. (2016). An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data. Cryosphere, 10(4), 1547–1570.
Abstract: Radar inference of the bulk properties of glacier beds, most notably identifying basal melting, is, in general, derived from the basal reflection coefficient. On the scale of an ice sheet, unambiguous determination of basal reflection is primarily limited by uncertainty in the englacial attenuation of the radio wave, which is an Arrhenius function of temperature. Existing bed-returned power algorithms for deriving attenuation assume that the attenuation rate is regionally constant, which is not feasible at an ice-sheet-wide scale. Here we introduce a new semi-empirical framework for deriving englacial attenuation, and, to demonstrate its efficacy, we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet. A central feature is the use of a prior Arrhenius temperature model to estimate the spatial variation in englacial attenuation as a first guess input for the radar algorithm. We demonstrate regions of solution convergence for two input temperature fields and for independently analysed field campaigns. The coverage achieved is a trade-off with uncertainty and we propose that the algorithm can be “tuned” for discrimination of basal melt (attenuation loss uncertainty similar to 5 dB). This is supported by our physically realistic (similar to 20 dB) range for the basal reflection coefficient. Finally, we show that the attenuation solution can be used to predict the temperature bias of thermomechanical ice sheet models and is in agreement with known model temperature biases at the Dye 3 ice core.
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Jourdain, N. C., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J., Izumo, T., & Sen Gupta, A. (2016). Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year's ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models. Journal Of Climate, 29(2), 637–658.
Abstract: Recent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events (nIOD and pIOD, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, El Nino and La Nina events one year later. These statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. This paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to assess IOD and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. In the observations and most CMIP5 models, it is shown that El Ninos tend to be followed by La Ninas but not the opposite, that pIODs co-occur more frequently with El Ninos than nIODs with La Ninas, that nIODs tend to be followed by El Ninos one year later less frequently than pIODs by La Ninas, and that including an IOD index in a linear prediction based on the Pacific warm water volume improves ENSO peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. The IOD-ENSO delayed relationship partly results from a combination of ENSO intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for El Ninos to be followed by La Ninas) and from the synchronous IOD-ENSO relationship. The results, however, reveal that this is not sufficient to explain the high prevalence of pIOD-Nina transitions in the observations and 75% of the CMIP5 models, and of nIOD-Nino transitions in 60% of CMIP5 models. This suggests that the tendency of IOD to lead ENSO by one year should be explained by a physical mechanism that, however, remains elusive in the CMIP5 models. The ability of many CMIP5 models to reproduce the delayed influence of the IOD on ENSO is nonetheless a strong incentive to explore extended-range dynamical forecasts of ENSO.
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Langer, M., Westermann, S., Boike, J., Kirillin, G., Grosse, G., Peng, S., et al. (2016). Rapid degradation of permafrost underneath waterbodies in tundra landscapes-Toward a representation of thermokarst in land surface models. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 121(12), 2446–2470.
Abstract: Waterbodies such as lakes and ponds are abundant in vast Arctic landscapes and strongly affect the thermal state of the surrounding permafrost. In order to gain a better understanding of the impact of small-and medium-sized waterbodies on permafrost and the formation of thermokarst, a land surface model was developed that can represent the vertical and lateral thermal interactions between waterbodies and permafrost. The model was validated using temperature measurements from two typical waterbodies located within the Lena River delta in northern Siberia. Impact simulations were performed under current climate conditions as well as under a moderate and a strong climate-warming scenario. The performed simulations demonstrate that small waterbodies can rise the sediment surface temperature by more than 10 degrees C and accelerate permafrost thaw by a factor of between 4 and 5. Up to 70% of this additional heat flux into the ground was found to be dissipated into the surrounding permafrost by lateral ground heat flux in the case of small, shallow, and isolated waterbodies. Under moderate climate warming, the lateral heat flux was found to reduce permafrost degradation underneath waterbodies by a factor of 2. Under stronger climatic warming, however, the lateral heat flux was too small to prevent rapid permafrost degradation. The lateral heat flux was also found to strongly impede the formation of thermokarst. Despite this stabilizing effect, our simulations have demonstrated that underneath shallow waterbodies (<1 m), thermokarst initiation happens 30 to 40 years earlier than in simulations without preexisting waterbody.
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Macelloni, G., Leduc-Leballeur, M., Brogioni, M., Ritz, C., & Picard, G. (2016). Analyzing and modeling the SMOS spatial variations in the East Antarctic Plateau. Remote Sensing Of Environment, 180, 193–204.
Abstract: The SMOS brightness temperature (T-B) collected on the East Antarctic Plateau revealed spatial signatures at L-band that have never before been observed when only higher-frequency passive microwave observations were available, and this has opened up a new field of research. Because of the much greater penetration depth, modeling the microwave ice sheet emission requires taldng into account not only snow conditions on the surface, but should also include glaciological information. Even if the penetration depth of the L-band is not well known due to the uncertainty on the imaginary part of the ice permittivity, it is likely to be of the order of several hundreds of meters, which means that the temperature of the ice over a depth of nearly 1000 m influences the emission. Over such a depth, the temperature is related to both the surface conditions and to the ice sheet thickness, which in turn depends on the bedrock topography and on other glaciological variables. The present paper aims to provide a thorough theoretical explanation of the observed T-B spatial variation close to the Brewster angle at vertical polarization, in order to limit the effect of surface and vertical density variability in the firn. In order to provide reliable inputs to the microwave emission models used for simulating T-B data, an in-depth analysis of the temperature profiles was performed by means of glaciological models. The comparison between simulated and observed data over three transects totalling 2000 km in East Antarctica pointed out that, whereas the emission models are capable of explaining the T-B spatial variations of several kelvins (0.7 and 2.9 K), they are unable to predict its absolute value correctly. This study also shows that the main limiting factor in simulating low-frequency microwave data is the uncertainty in the currently available imaginary part of the ice permittivity. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.
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Maurel, A., Mercier, J. F., & Montagnat, M. (2016). Critical investigation of calculation methods for the elastic velocities in anisotropic ice polycrystals. Cryosphere, 10(6), 3063–3070.
Abstract: Crystallographic texture (or fabric) evolution with depth along ice cores can be evaluated using borehole sonic logging measurements. These measurements provide the velocities of elastic waves that depend on the ice polycrystal anisotropy, and they can further be related to the ice texture. To do so, elastic velocities need to be inverted from a modeling approach that relate elastic velocities to ice texture. So far, two different approaches can be found. A classical model is based on the effective medium theory; the velocities are derived from elastic wave propagation in a homogeneous medium characterized by an average elasticity tensor. Alternatively, a velocity averaging approach was used in the glaciology community that averages the velocities from a given population of single crystals with different orientations. In this paper, we show that the velocity averaging method is erroneous in the present context. This is demonstrated for the case of waves propagating along the clustering direction of a highly textured polycrystal, characterized by crystallographic c axes oriented along a single maximum (cluster). In this case, two different shear wave velocities are obtained while a unique velocity is theoretically expected. While making use of this velocity averaging method, reference work by Bennett (1968) does not end with such an unphysical result. We show that this is due to the use of erroneous expressions for the shear wave velocities in a single crystal, as the starting point of the averaging process. Because of the weak elastic anisotropy of ice single crystal, the inversion of the measured velocities requires accurate modeling approaches. We demonstrate here that the inversion method based on the effective medium theory provides physically based results and should therefore be favored.
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McGuire, A. D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D. M., Clein, J. S., Xia, J. Y., Beer, C., et al. (2016). Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(7), 1015–1037.
Abstract: A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
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Merino, N., Le Sommer, J., Durand, G., Jourdain, N. C., Madec, G., Mathiot, P., et al. (2016). Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean: Climatology and impact on sea ice. Ocean Modelling, 104, 99–110.
Abstract: Recent increase in Antarctic freshwater release to the Southern Ocean is suggested to contribute to change in water masses and sea ice. However, climate models differ in their representation of the freshwater sources. Recent improvements in altimetry-based detection of small icebergs and in estimates of the mass loss of Antarctica may help better constrain the values of Antarctic freshwater releases. We propose a model-based seasonal climatology of iceberg melt over the Southern Ocean using state-of-the-art observed glaciological estimates of the Antarctic mass loss. An improved version of a Lagrangian iceberg model is coupled with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea ice model and compared to small icebergs observations. Iceberg melt increases sea ice cover, about 10% in annual mean sea ice volume, and decreases sea surface temperature over most of the Southern Ocean, but with distinctive regional patterns. Our results underline the importance of improving the representation of Antarctic freshwater sources. This can be achieved by forcing ocean/sea ice models with a climatological iceberg fresh-water flux. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Meynadier, R., de Coetlogon, G., Leduc-Leballeur, M., Eymard, L., & Janicot, S. (2016). Seasonal influence of the sea surface temperature on the low atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 47(3-4), 1127–1142.
Abstract: The air-sea interaction in the Gulf of Guinea and its role in setting precipitation at the Guinean coast is investigated in the present paper. This study is based on satellite observations and WRF simulations forced by different sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. It shows that the seasonal cold tongue setup in the Gulf of Guinea, along with its very active northern front, tends to strongly constrain the low level atmospheric dynamics between the equator and the Guinean coast. Underlying mechanisms including local SST effect on the marine boundary layer stability and hydrostatically-changed meridional pressure gradient through changes in SST gradient are quantified in WRF regarding observations and CFSR reanalyses. Theses mechanisms strongly impact moisture flux convergence near the coast, leading to the installation of the first rainy season of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. The current study details the mechanisms by which the Atlantic Equatorial cold tongue plays a major role in the pre-onset of the boreal WAM.
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Mosbeux, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., & Gagliardini, O. (2016). Comparison of adjoint and nudging methods to initialise ice sheet model basal conditions. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(7), 2549–2562.
Abstract: Ice flow models are now routinely used to forecast the ice sheets' contribution to 21st century sea-level rise. For such short term simulations, the model response is greatly affected by the initial conditions. Data assimilation algorithms have been developed to invert for the friction of the ice on its bedrock using observed surface velocities. A drawback of these methods is that remaining uncertainties, especially in the bedrock elevation, lead to non-physical ice flux divergence anomalies resulting in undesirable transient effects. In this study, we compare two different assimilation algorithms based on adjoints and nudging to constrain both bedrock friction and elevation. Using synthetic twin experiments with realistic observation errors, we show that the two algorithms lead to similar performances in reconstructing both variables and allow the flux divergence anomalies to be significantly reduced.
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Noack, L., Honing, D., Rivoldini, A., Heistracher, C., Zimov, N., Journaux, B., et al. (2016). Water-rich planets: How habitable is a water layer deeper than on Earth? Icarus, 277, 215–236.
Abstract: Water is necessary for the origin and survival of life as we know it. In the search for life-friendly worlds, water-rich planets therefore are obvious candidates and have attracted increasing attention in recent years. The surface H2O layer on such planets (containing a liquid water ocean and possibly high-pressure ice below a specific depth) could potentially be hundreds of kilometres deep depending on the water content and the evolution of the proto-atmosphere. We study possible constraints for the habitability of deep water layers and introduce a new habitability classification relevant for water-rich planets (from Mars-size to super-Earth-size planets). A new ocean model has been developed that is coupled to a thermal evolution model of the mantle and core. Our interior structure model takes into account depth-dependent thermodynamic properties and the possible formation of high-pressure ice. We find that heat flowing out of the silicate mantle can melt an ice layer from below (in some cases episodically), depending mainly on the thickness of the ocean-ice shell, the mass of the planet, the surface temperature and the interior parameters (e.g. radioactive mantle heat sources). The high pressure at the bottom of deep water-ice layers could also impede volcanism at the water-mantle boundary for both stagnant lid and plate tectonics silicate shells. We conclude that water-rich planets with a deep ocean, a large planet mass, a high average density or a low surface temperature are likely less habitable than planets with an Earth-like ocean. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Passalacqua, O., Gagliardini, O., Parrenin, F., Todd, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., & Ritz, C. (2016). Performance and applicability of a 2.5-D ice-flow model in the vicinity of a dome. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(7), 2301–2313.
Abstract: Three-dimensional ice flow modelling requires a large number of computing resources and observation data, such that 2-D simulations are often preferable. However, when there is significant lateral divergence, this must be accounted for (2.5-D models), and a flow tube is considered (volume between two horizontal flowlines). In the absence of velocity observations, this flow tube can be derived assuming that the flowlines follow the steepest slope of the surface, under a few flow assumptions. This method typically consists of scanning a digital elevation model (DEM) with a moving window and computing the curvature at the centre of this window. The ability of the 2.5-D models to account properly for a 3-D state of strain and stress has not clearly been established, nor their sensitivity to the size of the scanning window and to the geometry of the ice surface, for example in the cases of sharp ridges. Here, we study the applicability of a 2.5-D ice flow model around a dome, typical of the East Antarctic plateau conditions. A twin experiment is carried out, comparing 3-D and 2.5-D computed velocities, on three dome geometries, for several scanning windows and thermal conditions. The chosen scanning window used to evaluate the ice surface curvature should be comparable to the typical radius of this curvature. For isothermal ice, the error made by the 2.5-D model is in the range 0-10aEuro-% for weakly diverging flows, but is 2 or 3 times higher for highly diverging flows and could lead to a non-physical ice surface at the dome. For non-isothermal ice, assuming a linear temperature profile, the presence of a sharp ridge makes the 2.5-D velocity field unrealistic. In such cases, the basal ice is warmer and more easily laterally strained than the upper one, the walls of the flow tube are not vertical, and the assumptions of the 2.5-D model are no longer valid.
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Peng, S., Ciais, P., Krinner, G., Wang, T., Gouttevin, I., McGuire, A. D., et al. (2016). Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades. Cryosphere, 10(1), 179–192.
Abstract: Soil temperature (T-s) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of T-s determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T-s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960-2000, to characterize the warming rate of T-s in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of T-s trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 +/- 0.003 to 0.031 +/- 0.005 degrees C yr(-1). Most models show smaller increase in T-s with increasing depth. Air temperature (T-a) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of T-s trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61% of their differences in T-s trends, while trends of T a only explain 5% of the differences in T-s trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in T-s trends (0.021 +/- 0.008 degrees C yr(-1), mean +/- standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 +/- 0.001 degrees C yr(-1)), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of T-s at 1m depth across the models (R = -0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total nearsurface permafrost area (R = -0.30, P = -0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T-s at 1m is estimated to be of -2.80 +/- 0.67 million km(2) degrees C-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and T-s across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 +/- 14 x 10(3) and 75 +/- 14 x 10(3) km(2) yr(-1) from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9-18% degradation of the current permafrost area.
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Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Panel, J. M., & Morin, S. (2016). Design of a scanning laser meter for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of snow depth and its application in the Alps and in Antarctica. Cryosphere, 10(4), 1495–1511.
Abstract: Although both the temporal and spatial variations of the snow depth are usually of interest for numerous applications, available measurement techniques are either space-oriented (e.g. terrestrial laser scans) or time-oriented (e.g. ultrasonic ranging probe). Because of snow heterogeneity, measuring depth in a single point is insufficient to provide accurate and representative estimates. We present a cost-effective automatic instrument to acquire spatio-temporal variations of snow depth. The device comprises a laser meter mounted on a 2-axis stage and can scan approximate to 200 000 points over an area of 100-200 m(2) in 4 h. Two instruments, installed in Antarctica (Dome C) and the French Alps (Col de Porte), have been operating continuously and unattended over 2015 with a success rate of 65 and 90% respectively. The precision of single point measurements and long-term stability were evaluated to be about 1 cm and the accuracy to be 5 cm or better. The spatial variability in the scanned area reached 7-10 cm (root mean square) at both sites, which means that the number of measurements is sufficient to average out the spatial variability and yield precise mean snow depth. With such high precision, it was possible for the first time at Dome C to (1) observe a 3-month period of regular and slow increase of snow depth without apparent link to snowfalls and (2) highlight that most of the annual accumulation stems from a single event although several snowfall and strong wind events were predicted by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Finally the paper discusses the benefit of laser scanning compared to multiplying single-point sensors in the context of monitoring snow depth.
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Picard, G., Libois, Q., & Arnaud, L. (2016). Refinement of the ice absorption spectrum in the visible using radiance profile measurements in Antarctic snow. Cryosphere, 10(6), 2655–2672.
Abstract: Ice is a highly transparent material in the visible. According to the most widely used database (IA2008; Warren and Brandt, 2008), the ice absorption coefficient reaches values lower than 10(-3) m(-1) around 400 nm. These values were obtained from a vertical profile of spectral radiance measured in a single snow layer at Dome C in Antarctica. We reproduced this experiment using an optical fiber inserted in the snow to record 56 profiles from which 70 homogeneous layers were identified. Applying the same estimation method on every layer yields 70 ice absorption spectra. They present a significant variability but absorption coefficients are overall larger than IA2008 by 1 order of magnitude at 400-450 nm. We devised another estimation method based on Bayesian inference that treats all the profiles simultaneously. It reduces the statistical variability and confirms the higher absorption, around 2 x 10(-2) m(-1) near the minimum at 440 nm. We explore potential instrumental artifacts by developing a 3-D radiative transfer model able to explicitly account for the presence of the fiber in the snow. The simulation shows that the radiance profile is indeed perturbed by the fiber intrusion, but the error on the ice absorption estimate is not larger than a factor of 2. This is insufficient to explain the difference between our new estimate and IA2008. The same conclusion applies regarding the plausible contamination by black carbon or dust, concentrations reported in the literature are insufficient. Considering the large number of profiles acquired for this study and other estimates from the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA), we nevertheless estimate that ice absorption values around 10(-2) m(-1) at the minimum are more likely than under 10(-3) m(-1). A new estimate in the range 400-600 nm is provided for future modeling of snow, cloud, and sea-ice optical properties. Most importantly, we recommend that modeling studies take into account the large uncertainty of the ice absorption coefficient in the visible and that future estimations of the ice absorption coefficient should also thoroughly account for the impact of the measurement method.
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Picard, G., Libois, Q., Arnaud, L., Verin, G., & Dumont, M. (2016). Development and calibration of an automatic spectral albedometer to estimate near-surface snow SSA time series. Cryosphere, 10(3), 1297–1316.
Abstract: Spectral albedo of the snow surface in the visible/near-infrared range has been measured for 3 years by an automatic spectral radiometer installed at Dome C (75A degrees aEuro-S, 123A degrees aEuro-E) in Antarctica in order to retrieve the specific surface area (SSA) of superficial snow. This study focuses on the uncertainties of the SSA retrieval due to instrumental and data processing limitations. We find that when the solar zenith angle is high, the main source of uncertainties is the imperfect angular response of the light collectors. This imperfection introduces a small spurious wavelength-dependent trend in the albedo spectra which greatly affects the SSA retrieval. By modeling this effect, we show that for typical snow and illumination conditions encountered at Dome C, retrieving SSA with an accuracy better than 15aEuro-% (our target) requires the difference of response between 400 and 1100aEuro-nm to not exceed 2. Such a small difference can be achieved only by (i) a careful design of the collectors, (ii) an ad hoc correction of the spectra using the actual measured angular response of the collectors, and (iii) for solar zenith angles less than 75A degrees. The 3-year time series of retrieved SSA features a 3-fold decrease every summer which is significantly larger than the estimated uncertainties. This highlights the high dynamics of near-surface SSA at Dome C.
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Roy, A., Royer, A., St-Jean-Rondeau, O., Montpetit, B., Picard, G., Mavrovic, A., et al. (2016). Microwave snow emission modeling uncertainties in boreal and subarctic environments. Cryosphere, 10(2), 623–638.
Abstract: This study aims to better understand and quantify the uncertainties in microwave snow emission models using the Dense Media Radiative Theory Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML) with in situ measurements of snow properties. We use surface-based radiometric measurements at 10.67, 19 and 37aEuro-GHz in boreal forest and subarctic environments and a new in situ data set of measurements of snow properties (profiles of density, snow grain size and temperature, soil characterization and ice lens detection) acquired in the James Bay and Umiujaq regions of Northern Qu,bec, Canada. A snow excavation experiment – where snow was removed from the ground to measure the microwave emission of bare frozen ground – shows that small-scale spatial variability (less than 1aEuro-km) in the emission of frozen soil is small. Hence, in our case of boreal organic soil, variability in the emission of frozen soil has a small effect on snow-covered brightness temperature (T-B). Grain size and density measurement errors can explain the errors at 37aEuro-GHz, while the sensitivity of T-B at 19aEuro-GHz to snow increases during the winter because of the snow grain growth that leads to scattering. Furthermore, the inclusion of observed ice lenses in DMRT-ML leads to significant improvements in the simulations at horizontal polarization (H-pol) for the three frequencies (up to 20aEuro-K of root mean square error). However, representation of the spatial variability of T-B remains poor at 10.67 and 19aEuro-GHz at H-pol given the spatial variability of ice lens characteristics and the difficulty in simulating snowpack stratigraphy related to the snow crust. The results also show that, in our study with the given forest characteristics, forest emission reflected by the snow-covered surface can increase the T-B up to 40aEuro-K. The forest contribution varies with vegetation characteristics and a relationship between the downwelling contribution of vegetation and the proportion of pixels occupied by vegetation (trees) in fisheye pictures was found. We perform a comprehensive analysis of the components that contribute to the snow-covered microwave signal, which will help to develop DMRT-ML and to improve the required field measurements. The analysis shows that a better consideration of ice lenses and snow crusts is essential to improve T-B simulations in boreal forest and subarctic environments.
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Rysman, J. F., Lahellec, A., Vignon, E., Genthon, C., & Verrier, S. (2016). Characterization of Atmospheric Ekman Spirals at Dome C, Antarctica. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 160(2), 363–373.
Abstract: We use wind speed and temperature measurements taken along a 45-m meteorological tower located at Dome C, Antarctica (, ) to highlight and characterize the Ekman spiral. Firstly, temperature records reveal that the atmospheric boundary layer at Dome C is stable during winter and summer nights (i.e., 85 % of the time). The wind vector, in both speed and direction, also shows a strong dependence with elevation. An Ekman model was then fitted to the measurements. Results show that the wind vector follows the Ekman spiral structure for more than 20 % of the year (2009). Most Ekman spirals have been detected during summer nights, that is, when the boundary layer is slightly stratified. During these episodes, the boundary-layer height ranged from 25 to 100 m, the eddy viscosity from 0.004 to , and the Richardson number from zero to 1.6.
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Shapero, D. R., Joughin, I. R., Poinar, K., Morlighem, M., & Gillet-Chaulet, F. (2016). Basal resistance for three of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 121(1), 168–180.
Abstract: Resistance at the ice-bed interface provides a strong control on the response of ice streams and outlet glaciers to external forcing, yet it is not observable by remote sensing. We used inverse methods constrained by satellite observations to infer the basal resistance to flow underneath three of the Greenland Ice Sheet's largest outlet glaciers. In regions of fast ice flow and high (>250kPa) driving stresses, ice is often assumed to flow over a strong bed. We found, however, that the beds of these three glaciers provide almost no resistance under the fast-flowing trunk. Instead, resistance to flow is provided by the lateral margins and stronger beds underlying slower-moving ice upstream. Additionally, we found isolated patches of high basal resistivity within the predominantly weak beds. Because these small-scale (<1 ice thickness) features may be artifacts of overfitting our solution to measurement errors, we tested their robustness to different degrees of regularization.
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Touzeau, A., Landais, A., Stenni, B., Uemura, R., Fukui, K., Fujita, S., et al. (2016). Acquisition of isotopic composition for surface snow in East Antarctica and the links to climatic parameters. Cryosphere, 10(2), 837–852.
Abstract: The isotopic compositions of oxygen and hydrogen in ice cores are invaluable tools for the reconstruction of past climate variations. Used alone, they give insights into the variations of the local temperature, whereas taken together they can provide information on the climatic conditions at the point of origin of the moisture. However, recent analyses of snow from shallow pits indicate that the climatic signal can become erased in very low accumulation regions, due to local processes of snow reworking. The signal-to-noise ratio decreases and the climatic signal can then only be retrieved using stacks of several snow pits. Obviously, the signal is not completely lost at this stage, otherwise it would be impossible to extract valuable climate information from ice cores as has been done, for instance, for the last glaciation. To better understand how the climatic signal is passed from the precipitation to the snow, we present here results from varied snow samples from East Antarctica. First, we look at the relationship between isotopes and temperature from a geographical point of view, using results from three traverses across Antarctica, to see how the relationship is built up through the distillation process. We also take advantage of these measures to see how second-order parameters (d-excess and O-17-excess) are related to delta O-18 and how they are controlled. d-excess increases in the interior of the continent (i.e., when delta O-18 decreases), due to the distillation process, whereas O-17-excess decreases in remote areas, due to kinetic fractionation at low temperature. In both cases, these changes are associated with the loss of original information regarding the source. Then, we look at the same relationships in precipitation samples collected over 1 year at Dome C and Vostok, as well as in surface snow at Dome C. We note that the slope of the delta O-18 vs. temperature (T) relationship decreases in these samples compared to those from the traverses, and thus caution is advocated when using spatial slopes for past climate reconstruction. The second-order parameters behave in the same way in the precipitation as in the surface snow from traverses, indicating that similar processes are active and that their interpretation in terms of source climatic parameters is strongly complicated by local temperature effects in East Antarctica. Finally we check if the same relationships between delta O-18 and second-order parameters are also found in the snow from four snow pits. While the d-excess remains opposed to delta O-18 in most snow pits, the O-17-excess is no longer positively correlated to delta O-18 and even shows anti-correlation to delta O-18 at Vostok. This may be due to a stratospheric influence at this site and/or to post-deposition processes.
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van den Hurk, B., Kim, H. J., Krinner, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Derksen, C., Oki, T., et al. (2016). LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(8), 2809–2832.
Abstract: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).
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Wang, T., Lin, X., Liu, Y. W., Dantec-Nedelec, S., & Ottle, C. (2016). Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models. International Journal Of Climatology, 36(5), 2323–2334.
Abstract: Net primary production is the initial step of the carbon cycle in which atmospheric CO2 is fixed by plants. The responses of net primary production (NPP) to climate change and CO2 are key processes that have the potential to significantly affect the climate-carbon feedback and future atmospheric CO2 levels. Understanding future NPP changes is important for China that became the world's largest CO2 emitter since 2006. Here, we analysed NPP changes in China under the four emission scenarios from 11 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. We find a general increase of NPP over the 21st century under the four emission scenarios, with the large percentage increase in northwestern China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, there is a large model spread in the increase of NPP at both country and local scales. We present a statistical approach to assess various processes to explain this large spread, and find that the large spread at the country level is predominantly attributed to inter-model difference in parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect within each emission scenario. But the parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect not always dominates over the model spread across China. When it comes to the local scale, the model spread can be significantly contributed by inter-model difference in parameterization of NPP responses to precipitation along with precipitation projection in northwestern China. Our findings provide the reasons for divergent responses of future NPP through process decomposition and are the first to pinpoint that the model process dominating over the uncertainty exhibits regional dependence.
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Wang, W. L., Rinke, A., Moore, J. C., Ji, D. Y., Cui, X. F., Peng, S. S., et al. (2016). Evaluation of air-soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region. Cryosphere, 10(4), 1721–1737.
Abstract: A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (Delta T; 3 to 14 degrees C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 degrees C degrees C-1), and in the relationship between Delta T and snow depth. The observed relationship between Delta T and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km(2)). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.
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Weiss, J., Pellissier, V., Marsan, D., Arnaud, L., & Renard, F. (2016). Cohesion versus friction in controlling the long-term strength of a self-healing experimental fault. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 121(12), 8523–8547.
Abstract: The Coulomb's failure criterion, which postulates that failure occurs along a fault plane when the applied shear stress overcomes a resistance made of two parts of different nature, cohesion, and friction, remains the standard conceptual framework of faulting mechanics. More recently, rate-and-state friction laws became the main modeling tool of the seismic cycle. These laws implicitly assume that only frictional resistance sets the fault strength and its evolution. We therefore raise the question of the role of cohesion and related healing/sealing mechanisms on fault mechanics. We designed an original laboratory experiment based on a model material, an ice thin layer sitting on top of a water tank and mechanically deformed at various rates with a circular Couette-like geometry. This allowed sliding along the fault plane over arbitrarily large slip distances, and analyzing the competition between faulting and cohesion-healing rates, whereas frictional resistance, resulting from the fault roughness, is limited in magnitude. We show that cohesion-healing plays an essential role in the time evolution of the interface strength under constant loading rate. In particular, the magnitudes of shear stress fluctuations are observed to be temperature and velocity weakening. The present experiment shares several properties similar to that of active faults during seismic cycles, suggesting that cohesive healing could control some of these features: scale invariance properties, Gutenberg-Richter law of rupture event size distribution, Omori's law of energy dissipation, at least after major ruptures, time asymmetry in energy dissipation, and periods of creep under high shear stress alternating with major earthquake-like ruptures.
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Westermann, S., Langer, M., Boike, J., Heikenfeld, M., Peter, M., Etzelmuller, B., et al. (2016). Simulating the thermal regime and thaw processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model CryoGrid 3. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(2), 523–546.
Abstract: Thawing of permafrost in a warming climate is governed by a complex interplay of different processes of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. However, observations in many permafrost landscapes demonstrate that lateral and vertical movement of water can have a pronounced influence on the thaw trajectories, creating distinct landforms, such as thermokarst ponds and lakes, even in areas where permafrost is otherwise thermally stable. Novel process parameterizations are required to include such phenomena in future projections of permafrost thaw and subsequent climatic-triggered feedbacks. In this study, we present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes. We document the model physics and employed parameterizations for the basis module CryoGrid 3, and compare model results with in situ observations of surface energy balance, surface temperatures, and ground thermal regime from the Samoylov permafrost observatory in NE Siberia. The comparison suggests that CryoGrid 3 can not only model the evolution of the ground thermal regime in the last decade, but also consistently reproduce the chain of energy transfer processes from the atmosphere to the ground. In addition, we demonstrate a simple 1-D parameterization for thaw processes in permafrost areas rich in ground ice, which can phenomenologically reproduce both formation of thermokarst ponds and subsidence of the ground following thawing of ice-rich subsurface layers. Long-term simulation from 1901 to 2100 driven by reanalysis data and climate model output demonstrate that the hydrological regime can both accelerate and delay permafrost thawing. If meltwater from thawed ice-rich layers can drain, the ground subsides, as well as the formation of a talik, are delayed. If the meltwater pools at the surface, a pond is formed that enhances heat transfer in the ground and leads to the formation of a talik. The model results suggest that the trajectories of future permafrost thaw are strongly influenced by the cryostratigraphy, as determined by the late Quaternary history of a site.
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Yue, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Wang, T., Peng, S. S., & Piao, S. L. (2016). How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems? Biogeosciences, 13(3), 675–690.
Abstract: Boreal fires have immediate effects on regional carbon budgets by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere at the time of burning, but they also have legacy effects by initiating a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. Quantifying these different effects on the current-day pan-boreal (44-84 degrees N) carbon balance and quantifying relative contributions of legacy sinks by past fires is important for understanding and predicting the carbon dynamics in this region. Here we used the global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems – SPread and InTensity of FIRE) to attribute the contributions by fires in different decades between 1850 and 2009 to the carbon balance of 2000-2009, taking into account the atmospheric CO2 change and climate change since 1850. The fire module of ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE was turned off for each decade in turn and was also turned off before and after the decade in question in order to model the legacy carbon trajectory by fires in each past decade. We found that, unsurprisingly, fires that occurred in 2000-2009 are a carbon source (-0.17 Pg C yr(-1)) for the carbon balance of 2000-2009, whereas fires in all decades before 2000 contribute carbon sinks with a collective contribution of 0.23 Pg C yr(-1). This leaves a net fire sink effect of 0.06 Pg Cyr(-1), or 6.3% of the simulated regional carbon sink (0.95 Pg C yr(-1)). Further, fires with an age of 10-40 years (i.e., those that occurred during 1960-1999) contribute more than half of the total sink effect of fires. The small net sink effect of fires indicates that current-day fire emissions are roughly balanced out by legacy sinks. The future role of fires in the regional carbon balance remains uncertain and will depend on whether changes in fires and associated carbon emissions will exceed the enhanced sink effects of previous fires, both being strongly affected by global change.
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Zhu, D., Peng, S., Ciais, P., Zech, R., Krinner, G., Zimov, S., et al. (2016). Simulating soil organic carbon in yedoma deposits during the Last Glacial Maximum in a land surface model. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5133–5142.
Abstract: Substantial quantities of organic carbon (OC) are stored in the thick, ice-rich, and organic-rich sediments called yedoma deposits, distributed in eastern Siberia and Alaska today. Quantifying yedoma carbon stocks during the glacial period is important for understanding how much carbon could have been decomposed during the last deglaciation. Yet processes that yield the formation of thick frozen OC in yedoma deposits aremissing in global carbon cycle models. Here we incorporate sedimentation parameterizations into the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE-MICT) land surface model, which leads to reasonable results in OC vertical distribution and regional budgets, compared with site-specific observations and inventories for today's nondegraded yedoma region. Simulated total soil OC stock for the northern permafrost region during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 1536-1592 Pg C, of which 390-446 Pg C is within today's yedoma region. This result is an underestimation since we did not account for the potentially much larger yedoma area during the LGM than the present day.
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Amory, C., Trouvilliez, A., Gallee, H., Favier, V., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Genthon, C., et al. (2015). Comparison between observed and simulated aeolian snow mass fluxes in Adelie Land, East Antarctica. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1373–1383.
Abstract: Using the original setup described in Gallee et al. (2013), the MAR regional climate model including a coupled snowpack/aeolian snow transport parameterization, was run at a fine spatial (5 km horizontal and 2m vertical) resolution over 1 summer month in coastal Adelie Land. Different types of feedback were taken into account in MAR including drag partitioning caused by surface roughness elements. Model outputs are compared with observations made at two coastal locations, D17 and D47, situated respectively 10 and 100 km inland. Wind speed was correctly simulated with positive values of the Nash test (0.60 for D17 and 0.37 for D47) but wind velocities above 10 m s(-1) were underestimated at both D17 and D47; at D47, the model consistently underestimated wind velocity by 2 m s(-1). Aeolian snow transport events were correctly reproduced with the right timing and a good temporal resolution at both locations except when the maximum particle height was less than 1 m. The threshold friction velocity, evaluated only at D17 for a 7-day period without snowfall, was overestimated. The simulated aeolian snow mass fluxes between 0 and 2m at D47 displayed the same variations but were underestimated compared to the second-generation FlowCapt (TM) values, as was the simulated relative humidity at 2m above the surface. As a result, MAR underestimated the total aeolian horizontal snow transport for the first 2 m above the ground by a factor of 10 compared to estimations by the second-generation FlowCapt (TM). The simulation was significantly improved at D47 if a 1-order decrease in the magnitude of z(0) was accounted for, but agreement with observations was reduced at D17. Our results suggest that z(0) may vary regionally depending on snowpack properties, which are involved in different types of feedback between aeolian transport of snow and z(0).
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Aristidi, E., Vernin, J., Fossat, E., Schmider, F. X., Travouillon, T., Pouzenc, C., et al. (2015). Monitoring the optical turbulence in the surface layer at Dome C, Antarctica, with sonic anemometers. Monthly Notices Of The Royal Astronomical Society, 454(4), 4304–4315.
Abstract: The optical turbulence above Dome C in winter is mainly concentrated in the first tens of metres above the ground. Properties of this so-called surface layer (SL) were investigated during the period 2007-2012 by a set of sonic anemometers placed on a 45 m high tower. We present the results of this long-term monitoring of the refractive index structure constant C-n(2) within the SL, and confirm its thickness of 35 m. We give statistics of the contribution of the SL to the seeing and coherence time. We also investigate properties of large-scale structure functions of the temperature and show evidence of a second inertial zone at kilometric spatial scales.
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Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., & Ritz, C. (2015). How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate? Climate of the Past, 11(10), 1467–1490.
Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covering Canada and northern Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a strong influence on climate by causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In turn, these changes may have impacted the development of the ice sheets themselves through a combination of different feedback mechanisms. The present study is designed to investigate the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Eurasian ice sheet driven by simulated changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using the LMDZ5 atmospheric circulation model, we carried out 12 experiments under constant LGM conditions for insolation, greenhouse gases and ocean. In these experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet is removed. The 12 experiments differ in the North American ice-sheet topography, ranging from a white and flat (present-day topography) ice sheet to a full-size LGM ice sheet. This experimental design allows the albedo and the topographic impacts of the North American ice sheet onto the climate to be disentangled. The results are compared to our baseline experiment where both the North American and the Eurasian ice sheets have been removed. In summer, the sole albedo effect of the American ice sheet modifies the pattern of planetary waves with respect to the no-ice-sheet case, resulting in a cooling of the northwestern Eurasian region. By contrast, the atmospheric circulation changes induced by the topography of the North American ice sheet lead to a strong decrease of this cooling. In winter, the Scandinavian and the Barents-Kara regions respond differently to the American ice-sheet albedo effect: in response to atmospheric circulation changes, Scandinavia becomes warmer and total precipitation is more abundant, whereas the Barents-Kara area becomes cooler with a decrease of convective processes, causing a decrease of total precipitation. The gradual increase of the altitude of the American ice sheet leads to less total precipitation and snowfall and to colder temperatures over both the Scandinavian and the Barents and Kara sea sectors. We then compute the resulting annual surface mass balance over the Fennoscandian region from the simulated temperature and precipitation fields used to force an ice-sheet model. It clearly appears that the SMB is dominated by the ablation signal. In response to the summer cooling induced by the American ice-sheet albedo, high positive SMB values are obtained over the Eurasian region, leading thus to the growth of an ice sheet. On the contrary, the gradual increase of the American ice-sheet altitude induces more ablation over the Eurasian sector, hence limiting the growth of Fennoscandia. To test the robustness of our results with respect to the Eurasian ice sheet state, we carried out two additional LMDZ experiments with new boundary conditions involving both the American (flat or full LGM) and high Eurasian ice sheets. The most striking result is that the Eurasian ice sheet is maintained under full-LGM North American ice-sheet conditions, but loses similar to 10% of its mass compared to the case in which the North American ice sheet is flat. These new findings qualitatively confirm the conclusions from our first series of experiments and suggest that the development of the Eurasian ice sheet may have been slowed down by the growth of the American ice sheet, offering thereby a new understanding of the evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout glacial-interglacial cycles.
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Boike, J., Georgi, C., Kirilin, G., Muster, S., Abramova, K., Fedorova, I., et al. (2015). Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia – observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia). Biogeosciences, 12(20), 5941–5965.
Abstract: Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5m develop continuous stratification in summer for at least 1 month. The modeled vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5Wm(-2) in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a rate of less than 1Wm(-2) during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15 degrees C and are therefore higher than the associated monthly air or ground temperatures in the surrounding frozen permafrost landscape. The investigated lakes remain unfrozen at depth, with mean annual lake-bottom temperatures of between 2.7 and 4 degrees C.
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Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., et al. (2015). An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(5), 1493–1508.
Abstract: It is important to correctly simulate permafrost in global climate models, since the stored carbon represents the source of a potentially important climate feedback. This carbon feedback depends on the physical state of the permafrost. We have therefore included improved physical permafrost processes in JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), which is the land-surface scheme used in the Hadley Centre climate models. The thermal and hydraulic properties of the soil were modified to account for the presence of organic matter, and the insulating effects of a surface layer of moss were added, allowing for fractional moss cover. These processes are particularly relevant in permafrost zones. We also simulate a higher-resolution soil column and deeper soil, and include an additional thermal column at the base of the soil to represent bedrock. In addition, the snow scheme was improved to allow it to run with arbitrarily thin layers. Point-site simulations at Samoylov Island, Siberia, show that the model is now able to simulate soil temperatures and thaw depth much closer to the observations. The root mean square error for the near-surface soil temperatures reduces by approximately 30 %, and the active layer thickness is reduced from being over 1m too deep to within 0.1m of the observed active layer thickness. All of the model improvements contribute to improving the simulations, with organic matter having the single greatest impact. A new method is used to estimate active layer depth more accurately using the fraction of unfrozen water. Soil hydrology and snow are investigated further by holding the soil moisture fixed and adjusting the parameters to make the soil moisture and snow density match better with observations. The root mean square error in near-surface soil temperatures is reduced by a further 20% as a result.
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Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., et al. (2015). Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1505–1521.
Abstract: There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon-climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25% too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50% of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km(2). Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km(2) degrees C-1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km(2) degrees C-1 in the new model version. However, the near-surface permafrost area is still projected to approximately half by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.
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Chauve, T., Montagnat, M., & Vacher, P. (2015). Strain field evolution during dynamic recrystallization nucleation; A case study on ice. Acta Materialia, 101, 116–124.
Abstract: Nucleation mechanisms occurring during discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DDRX) is investigated by Digital Image Correlation (DIC) during creep experiment on polycrystalline columnar ice. Thanks to the columnar microstructure, discrimination of the nucleus can be done without ambiguity comparing pre- and post- deformation texture. In-situ DIC analyses are performed around a triple junction were nucleation occurred to follow strain field evolution. Strain field evolution appears strongly linked to nucleation mechanisms, local grain boundary migration and sub-grain boundary formation such as tilt sub-grain boundaries and kink bands. Nucleation processes are correlated with strong strain heterogeneities well characterized by the principal strains evaluated by DIC. It was possible to follow nucleus growth through the evolution of strain localization along the new grain boundaries. Kink bands act as a buffer zone close to the triple junction and accommodate shear parallel to the c-axis. The local strain field appears to be efficiently redistributed by recrystallization processes which create a new microstructure more compatible with the local stresses. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Payne, A. J., Ng, E. G., Le Brocq, A. M., Gladstone, R. M., et al. (2015). Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1579–1600.
Abstract: We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the El and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.
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Crichton, K. A., Anderson, K., Bennie, J. J., & Milton, E. J. (2015). Characterizing peatland carbon balance estimates using freely available Landsat ETM plus data. Ecohydrology, 8(3), 493–503.
Abstract: We demonstrate the potential of using freely available satellite data from the Landsat ETM+ sensor for generating carbon balance estimates for lowland peatlands. We used a lowland ombrotrophic peatland in the UK as our test site representing a range of peatland conditions. A literature survey was undertaken to identify the simplest classification schema that could be used to distinguish ecohydrological classes for carbon sequestration on the peatland surface. These were defined as: active raised bog, Eriophorum-dominated bog, milled unvegetated peat and drained or degraded bog, with bracken and Carr woodland to define the bog edges. A maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) was used to map the spatial distribution of the six classes on the peatland surface. A Landsat ETM+ band-5 derived brightness-texture layer created using geostatistical methods greatly improved classification accuracies. The results showed the best accuracy of the MLC, when compared to finer scale methods, with Landsat ETM+ bands alone was 74%, which increased to 93% when including the brightness-texture layer. An estimate of carbon sequestration status of the site was performed that showed good agreement with the results of a finer-scale-based estimate. The coarse-scale map estimating -12000kg carbon and fine scale map estimating +23000kg carbon per annum. We conclude that with further development of our tool, if textural measures are used alongside optical data in MLC, it is possible to achieve good quality estimates of carbon balance status for peatland landscapes. This represents a potentially powerful operational toolkit for land managers and policy makers who require spatially distributed information on carbon storage and release for carbon pricing and effective land management. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Delaygue, G., Bekki, S., & Bard, E. (2015). Modelling the stratospheric budget of beryllium isotopes. Tellus Series B-Chemical And Physical Meteorology, 67.
Abstract: A global 2-D (latitude-altitude) model describing both the stratospheric circulation and the detailed formation and growth of stratospheric aerosols is used to simulate the stratospheric cycle of cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium, Be-7 and Be-10. These isotopes have been extensively used as tracers of stratospheric air, as well as of solar variability. The simulation of these isotopes is used to quantify the relative importance of transport, microphysic processes related to aerosols, and radioactive decay, on their concentrations. Calculations of model budget show that the vertical transfer of these isotopes due to the aerosol sedimentation contributes to about half of the stratospheric Be-10 flux into the troposphere, but is negligible for the Be-7 budget. The simulated residence time of these isotopes in the lower stratosphere is monotonically related to the age of air; however, this relationship is neither linear nor uniform, which biases the age of air inferred from these isotopes.
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Domine, F., Barrere, M., Sarrazin, D., Morin, S., & Arnaud, L. (2015). Automatic monitoring of the effective thermal conductivity of snow in a low-Arctic shrub tundra. Cryosphere, 9(3), 1265–1276.
Abstract: The effective thermal conductivity of snow, k(eff), is a critical variable which determines the temperature gradient in the snowpack and heat exchanges between the ground and the atmosphere through the snow. Its accurate knowledge is therefore required to simulate snow metamorphism, the ground thermal regime, permafrost stability, nutrient recycling and vegetation growth. Yet, few data are available on the seasonal evolution of snow thermal conductivity in the Arctic. We have deployed heated needle probes on low-Arctic shrub tundra near Umiujaq, Quebec, (N56 degrees 34'; W76 degrees 29') and monitored automatically the evolution of k(eff) for two consecutive winters, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014, at four heights in the snowpack. Shrubs are 20 cm high dwarf birch. Here, we develop an algorithm for the automatic determination of k(eff) from the heating curves and obtain 404 k(eff) values. We evaluate possible errors and biases associated with the use of the heated needles. The time evolution of k(eff) is very different for both winters. This is explained by comparing the meteorological conditions in both winters, which induced different conditions for snow metamorphism. In particular, important melting events in the second year increased snow hardness, impeding subsequent densification and increase in thermal conductivity. We conclude that shrubs have very important impacts on snow physical evolution: (1) shrubs absorb light and facilitate snow melt under intense radiation; (2) the dense twig network of dwarf birch prevent snow compaction, and therefore k(eff) increase; ( 3) the low density depth hoar that forms within shrubs collapsed in late winter, leaving a void that was not filled by snow.
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Durand, G., & Pattyn, F. (2015). Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss. Cryosphere, 9(6), 2043–2055.
Abstract: Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP). The “multi-model” approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin.
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Ekici, A., Chadburn, S., Chaudhary, N., Hajdu, L. H., Marmy, A., Peng, S., et al. (2015). Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1343–1361.
Abstract: Modeling soil thermal dynamics at high latitudes and altitudes requires representations of physical processes such as snow insulation, soil freezing and thawing and subsurface conditions like soil water/ice content and soil texture. We have compared six different land models: JSBACH, ORCHIDEE, JULES, COUP, HYBRID8 and LPJ-GUESS, at four different sites with distinct cold region landscape types, to identify the importance of physical processes in capturing observed temperature dynamics in soils. The sites include alpine, high Arctic, wet polygonal tundra and non-permafrost Arctic, thus showing how a range of models can represent distinct soil temperature regimes. For all sites, snow insulation is of major importance for estimating topsoil conditions. However, soil physics is essential for the subsoil temperature dynamics and thus the active layer thicknesses. This analysis shows that land models need more realistic surface processes, such as detailed snow dynamics and moss cover with changing thickness and wetness, along with better representations of subsoil thermal dynamics.
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Furst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Merino, N., Tavard, L., Mouginot, J., et al. (2015). Assimilation of Antarctic velocity observations provides evidence for uncharted pinning points. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1427–1443.
Abstract: In ice flow modelling, the use of control methods to assimilate the dynamic and geometric state of an ice body has become common practice. These methods have primarily focussed on inverting for one of the two least known properties in glaciology, namely the basal friction coefficient or the ice viscosity parameter. Here, we present an approach to infer both properties simultaneously for the whole of the Antarctic ice sheet. After the assimilation, the root-mean-square deviation between modelled and observed surface velocities attains 8.7 ma(-1) for the entire domain, with a slightly higher value of 14.0 ma(-1) for the ice shelves. An exception in terms of the velocity mismatch is the Thwaites Glacier Ice Shelf, where the RMS value is almost 70 ma(-1). The reason is that the underlying Bedmap2 geometry ignores the presence of an ice rise, which exerts major control on the dynamics of the eastern part of the ice shelf. On these grounds, we suggest an approach to account for pinning points not included in Bedmap2 by locally allowing an optimisation of basal friction during the inversion. In this way, the velocity mismatch on the ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is more than halved. A characteristic velocity mismatch pattern emerges for unaccounted pinning points close to the marine shelf front. This pattern is exploited to manually identify seven uncharted features around Antarctica that exert significant resistance to the shelf flow. Potential pinning points are detected on Fimbul, West, Shackleton, Nickerson and Venable ice shelves. As pinning points can provide substantial resistance to shelf flow, with considerable consequences if they became ungrounded in the future, the model community is in need of detailed bathymetry there. Our data assimilation points to some of these dynamically important features not present in Bedmap2 and implicitly quantifies their relevance.
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Gallee, H., Barral, H., Vignon, E., & Genthon, C. (2015). A case study of a low-level jet during OPALE. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(11), 6237–6246.
Abstract: A case study of a low-level jet (LLJ) during the OPALE (Oxidant Production over Antarctic Land and its Export) summer campaign is presented. It has been observed at Dome C (East Antarctica) and is simulated accurately by the three-dimensional version of the Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR). It is found that this low-level jet is not related to an episode of thermal wind, suggesting that Dome C may be a place where turbulence on flat terrain can be studied.
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Gallee, H., Preunkert, S., Argentini, S., Frey, M. M., Genthon, C., Jourdain, B., et al. (2015). Characterization of the boundary layer at Dome C (East Antarctica) during the OPALE summer campaign. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(11), 6225–6236.
Abstract: Regional climate model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) was run for the region of Dome C located on the East Antarctic plateau, during Antarctic summer 2011-2012, in order to refine our understanding of meteorological conditions during the OPALE tropospheric chemistry campaign. A very high vertical resolution is set up in the lower troposphere, with a grid spacing of roughly 2 m. Model output is compared with temperatures and winds observed near the surface and from a 45m high tower as well as sodar and radiation data. MAR is generally in very good agreement with the observations, but sometimes underestimates cloud formation, leading to an underestimation of the simulated downward long-wave radiation. Absorbed short-wave radiation may also be slightly overestimated due to an underestimation of the snow albedo, and this influences the surface energy budget and atmospheric turbulence. Nevertheless, the model provides sufficiently reliable information about surface turbulent fluxes, vertical profiles of vertical diffusion coefficients and boundary layer height when discussing the representativeness of chemical measurements made nearby the ground surface during field campaigns conducted at Concordia station located at Dome C (3233m above sea level).
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Gilbert, A., Vincent, C., Gagliardini, O., Krug, J., & Berthier, E. (2015). Assessment of thermal change in cold avalanching glaciers in relation to climate warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(15), 6382–6390.
Abstract: High-elevation glaciers covered by cold firn are undergoing substantial warming in response to ongoing climate change. This warming is affecting the ice/rock interface temperature, the primary driver of avalanching glacier instability on steep slopes. Prediction of future potential instability therefore requires appropriate modeling of the thermal evolution of these glaciers. Application of a state-of-the-art model to a glacier in the French Alps (Taconnaz) has provided the first evaluation of the temperature evolution of a cold hanging glacier through this century. Our observations and three-dimensional modeling of the glacier response (velocity, thickness, temperature, density, and water content) to climate change indicate that Taconnaz glacier will become temperate and potentially unstable over a large area by the end of the 21st century. The risk induced by this glacier hazard is high for the populated region below and makes observation and modeling of such glaciers a priority.
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Haseloff, M., Schoof, C., & Gagliardini, O. (2015). A boundary layer model for ice stream margins. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 781, 353–387.
Abstract: The majority of Antarctic ice is discharged via long and narrow fast-flowing ice streams. At ice stream margins, the rapid transition from the vertical shearing flow in the ice ridges surrounding the stream to a rapidly sliding plug flow in the stream itself leads to high stress concentrations and a velocity field whose form is non-trivial to determine. In this paper, we develop a boundary layer theory for this narrow region separating a lubrication-type ice ridge flow and a membrane-type ice stream flow. This allows us to derive jump conditions for the outer models describing ridge and stream self-consistently. Much of our focus is, however, on determining the velocity and shear heating fields in the margin itself. Ice stream margins have been observed to change position over time, with potentially significant implications for ice stream discharge. Our boundary layer model allows us to extend previous work that has determined rates of margin migration from a balance between shear heating in the margin and the cooling effect of margin migration into the colder ice of the surrounding ice ridge. Solving for the transverse velocity field in the margin allows us to include the effect of advection due to lateral inflow of ice from the ridge on margin migration, and we demonstrate that this reduces the rate of margin migration, as previously speculated.
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Koenig, S. J., Dolan, A. M., de Boer, B., Stone, E. J., Hill, D. J., DeConto, R. M., et al. (2015). Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the mid-Pliocene. Climate Of The Past, 11(3), 369–381.
Abstract: The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important for constraining the potential impacts of future climate change. The Pliocene warm period (between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) saw global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates; nevertheless, Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets with a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to the highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies; however, the extent of those ice caps needs to be further constrained by using a range of general circulation model (GCM) climate forcings.
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Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schadel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J., Chen, G., et al. (2015). A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 373(2054).
Abstract: We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (gamma sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC degrees C-1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.
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Krug, J., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., & Weiss, J. (2015). Modelling the impact of submarine frontal melting and ice melange on glacier dynamics. Cryosphere, 9(3), 989–1003.
Abstract: Submarine melting of the calving face of tidewater glaciers and the mechanical back force applied by the ice melange layer are two mechanisms generally proposed to explain seasonal variations at the calving front of tidewater glaciers. However, the way these processes affect the calving rate and glacier dynamics remains uncertain. In this study, we used a finite element-based model that solves the full Stokes equations to simulate the impact of these forcings on two-dimensional theoretical flow line glacier configurations. The model, which includes calving processes, suggests that frontal melting affects the position of the terminus only slightly (less than a few hundred metres) and does not affect the multiannual glacier mass balance at all. However, the ice melange has a greater impact on the advance and retreat cycles of the glacier front (more than several kilometres) and its consequences for the mass balance are not completely negligible, stressing the need for better characterization of forcing properties. We also show that ice melange forcing against the calving face can mechanically prevent crevasse propagation at sea level and hence prevent calving. Results also reveal different behaviours in grounded and floating glaciers: in the case of a floating extension, the strongest forcings can disrupt the glacier equilibrium by modifying its buttressing and ice flux at the grounding line.
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Kwon, Y., Toure, A. M., Yang, Z. L., Rodell, M., & Picard, G. (2015). Error Characterization of Coupled Land Surface-Radiative Transfer Models for Snow Microwave Radiance Assimilation. Ieee Transactions On Geoscience And Remote Sensing, 53(9), 5247–5268.
Abstract: Snow microwave radiance assimilation (RA) or brightness temperature data assimilation (DA) has shown promise for improving snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation. A successful RA study requires, however, an analysis of the error characteristics of coupled land surface-radiative transfer models (LSM/RTMs). This paper focuses on the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) as the land-surface model and on the microwave emission model for layered snowpacks (MEMLS) and the dense media radiative transfer multilayer (DMRT-ML) model as RTMs. Using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) data sets and through synthetic experiments, the errors of the coupled CLM4/DMRT-ML and CLM4/MEMLS are characterized by: 1) evaluating the CLM4 snowpack state simulations; 2) assessing the performance of RTMs in simulating the brightness temperature (T-B); and 3) analyzing the correlations between the SWE error (epsilonSWE) and the T-B error (epsilonT-B) from the RA perspective. The results using the CLPX data sets show that, given a large error of the snow grain radius (epsilonre) under dry snowpack conditions (along with a small error of the snow temperature (epsilonT-snow)), the correlations between epsilonSWE and epsilonT-B are mainly determined by the relationship between epsilonr(e) and the snow depth error (epsilond(snow)) or the snow density error (epsilonrho(snow)). The synthetic experiments were carried out for the CLPX region (shallow snowpack conditions) and the Rocky Mountains (deep snowpack conditions) using the atmospheric ensemble reanalysis produced by the coupled DA Research Testbed/Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4). The synthetic experiments support the results from the CLPX data sets and show that the errors of soil (the water content and the temperature), snow wetness, and snow temperature mostly result in positive correlations between epsilonSWE and epsilonT-B. CLM4/DMRT-ML and CLM4/MEMLS tend to produce varying RA performance, with more positive and negative correlations between epsilonSWE and epsilonT-B, respectively. These results suggest the necessity of using multiple snowpack RTMs in RA to improve the SWE estimation at the continental scale. The results in this paper also show that the magnitude of epsilonr(e) and its relationship to epsilonSWE are important for the RA performance. Most of the SWE estimations in RA are improved when epsilonSWE and epsilon_r(e) show a high positive correlation (greater than 0.5).
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Leduc-Leballeur, M., Picard, G., Mialon, A., Arnaud, L., Lefebvre, E., Possenti, P., et al. (2015). Modeling L-Band Brightness Temperature at Dome C in Antarctica and Comparison With SMOS Observations. Ieee Transactions On Geoscience And Remote Sensing, 53(7), 4022–4032.
Abstract: Two electromagnetic models were used to simulate snow emission at L-band from in situ measurements of snow properties collected at Dome C in Antarctica. Two different approaches were used: one based on the radiative transfer theory and the other on the wave approach. The soil moisture ocean salinity (SMOS) satellite observations performed at 1.4 GHz (21 cm) were used to check the validity of these models. Model results based on the wave approach were in good agreement with SMOS observations, particularly for incidence angles lower than 55 degrees. Comparisons suggest that the wave approach is more suitable to simulate brightness temperature at L-band than the transfer radiative theory, because interference between the layers of the snowpack is better taken into account. The model based on the wave approach was then used to investigate several L-band characteristics at Dome C. The emission e-folding depth, i.e., 67% of the signal, was estimated at 250 m, and 99% of the signal emanated from the top 900 m. L-band brightness temperature is only slightly affected by seasonal variations in surface temperature, confirming the high temporal stability of snow emission at low frequency. Sensitivity tests showed that good knowledge of density variability in the snowpack is essential for accurate simulations in L-band.
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Libois, Q., Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Morin, S., et al. (2015). Summertime evolution of snow specific surface area close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau. Cryosphere, 9(6), 2383–2398.
Abstract: On the Antarctic Plateau, snow specific surface area (SSA) close to the surface shows complex variations at daily to seasonal scales which affect the surface albedo and in turn the surface energy budget of the ice sheet. While snow metamorphism, precipitation and strong wind events are known to drive SSA variations, usually in opposite ways, their relative contributions remain unclear. Here, a comprehensive set of SSA observations at Dome C is analysed with respect to meteorological conditions to assess the respective roles of these factors. The results show an average 2-to-3-fold SSA decrease from October to February in the topmost 10 cm in response to the increase of air temperature and absorption of solar radiation in the snowpack during spring and summer. Surface SSA is also characterized by significant daily to weekly variations due to the deposition of small crystals with SSA up to 100m(2) kg(-1) onto the surface during snowfall and blowing snow events. To complement these field observations, the detailed snowpack model Crocus is used to simulate SSA, with the intent to further investigate the previously found correlation between interannual variability of summer SSA decrease and summer precipitation amount. To this end, some Crocus parameterizations have been adapted to Dome C conditions, and the model was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis. It successfully matches the observations at daily to seasonal timescales, except for the few cases when snowfalls are not captured by the reanalysis. On the contrary, the interannual variability of summer SSA decrease is poorly simulated when compared to 14 years of microwave satellite data sensitive to the near-surface SSA. A simulation with disabled summer precipitation confirms the weak influence in the model of the precipitation on metamorphism, with only 6% enhancement. However, we found that disabling strong wind events in the model is sufficient to reconciliate the simulations with the observations. This suggests that Crocus reproduces well the contributions of metamorphism and precipitation on surface SSA, but snow compaction by the wind might be overestimated in the model.
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Liu, Z., Guan, D. B., Wei, W., Davis, S. J., Ciais, P., Bai, J., et al. (2015). Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. Nature, 524(7565), 335–+.
Abstract: Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China(1,2). Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent(1,3-5). The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics(6), that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(7), and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates(1,4). Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = +/-7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories(1,4,8). Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions(1,4). Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon)(9) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon)(10).
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Lowe, H., & Picard, G. (2015). Microwave scattering coefficient of snow in MEMLS and DMRT-ML revisited: the relevance of sticky hard spheres and tomography-based estimates of stickiness. Cryosphere, 9(6), 2101–2117.
Abstract: The description of snow microstructure in microwave models is often simplified to facilitate electromagnetic calculations. Within dense media radiative transfer (DMRT), the microstructure is commonly described by sticky hard spheres (SHS). An objective mapping of real snow onto SHS is however missing which prevents measured input parameters from being used for DMRT. In contrast, the microwave emission model of layered snowpacks (MEMLS) employs a conceptually different approach, based on the two-point correlation function which is accessible by tomography. Here we show the equivalence of both electromagnetic approaches by reformulating their microstructural models in a common framework. Using analytical results for the two-point correlation function of hard spheres, we show that the scattering coefficient in both models only differs by a factor which is close to unity, weakly dependent on ice volume fraction and independent of other microstructural details. Additionally, our analysis provides an objective retrieval method for the SHS parameters (diameter and stickiness) from tomography images. For a comprehensive data set we demonstrate the variability of stickiness and compare the SHS diameter to the optical equivalent diameter. Our results confirm the necessity of a large grain-size scaling when relating both diameters in the non-sticky case, as previously suggested by several authors.
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Masson-Delmotte, V., Steen-Larsen, H. C., Ortega, P., Swingedouw, D., Popp, T., Vinther, B. M., et al. (2015). Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions. Cryosphere, 9(4), 1481–1504.
Abstract: Combined records of snow accumulation rate, delta O-18 and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope-temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal delta O-18 and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM delta O-18 shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive delta O-18 values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in delta O-18 (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815-1825 and 1836-1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and delta O-18 records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation-temperature and delta O-18-temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979-2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 +/- 2% degrees C-1 and the delta O-18-temperature slope at 1.1 +/- 0.2 parts per thousand degrees C-1, about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.
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Matsuoka, K., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Moholdt, G., Bentley, M. J., Pritchard, H. D., Brown, J., et al. (2015). Antarctic ice rises and rumples: Their properties and significance for ice-sheet dynamics and evolution. Earth-Science Reviews, 150, 724–745.
Abstract: Locally grounded features in ice shelves, called ice rises and rumples, play a key role buttressing discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and regulating its contribution to sea level. Ice rises typically rise several hundreds of meters above the surrounding ice shelf; shelf flow is diverted around them. On the other hand, shelf ice flows across ice rumples, which typically rise only a few tens of meters above the ice shelf. Ice rises contain rich histories of deglaciation and climate that extend back over timescales ranging from a few millennia to beyond the last glacial maximum. Numerical model results have shown that the buttressing effects of ice rises and rumples are significant, but details of processes and how they evolve remain poorly understood. Fundamental information about the conditions and processes that cause transitions between floating ice shelves, ice rises and ice rumples is needed in order to assess their impact on ice-sheet behavior. Targeted high-resolution observational data are needed to evaluate and improve prognostic numerical models and parameterizations of the effects of small-scale pinning points on grounding-zone dynamics. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
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Matveeva, T. A., Gushchina, D. Y., & Zolina, O. G. (2015). Large-scale Indicators of Extreme Precipitation in Coastal Natural-economic Zones of the European Part of Russia. Russian Meteorology And Hydrology, 40(11), 722–730.
Abstract: Identified are the indicators of extreme precipitation for the coastal regions of the European sector of the Arctic and the Caucasus Black Sea coast (the specific pattern of pressure field and the frontal zone presence in the area of intensive precipitation). Tested is the simulation of the revealed indicators of extreme precipitation by the GFDL-ESM2M model. Assessed are the variations of occurrence frequency of these indicators under conditions of climate warming It is demonstrated that in the 21st century the occurrence frequency of conditions accompanying extreme precipitation events of frontal origin will increase on the southern coast of the European part of Russia in summer and on the Arctic coast during the cold season.
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Maurel, A., Lund, F., & Montagnat, M. (2015). Propagation of elastic waves through textured polycrystals: application to ice. Proceedings Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 471(2177).
Abstract: The propagation of elastic waves in polycrystals is revisited, with an emphasis on configurations relevant to the study of ice. Randomly oriented hexagonal single crystals are considered with specific, non-uniform, probability distributions for their major axis. Three typical textures or fabrics (i.e. preferred grain orientations) are studied in detail: one cluster fabric and two girdle fabrics, as found in ice recovered from deep ice cores. After computing the averaged elasticity tensor for the considered textures, wave propagation is studied using a wave equation with elastic constants c = < c > + delta c that are equal to an average plus deviations, presumed small, from that average. This allows for the use of the Voigt average in the wave equation, and velocities are obtained solving the appropriate Christoffel equation. The velocity for vertical propagation, as appropriate to interpret sonic logging measurements, is analysed in more details. Our formulae are shown to be accurate at the 0.5% level and they provide a rationale for previous empirical fits to wave propagation velocities with a quantitative agreement at the 0.07-0.7% level. We conclude that, within the formalism presented here, it is appropriate to use, with confidence, velocity measurements to characterize ice fabrics.
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Montagnat, M., Chauve, T., Barou, F., Tommasi, A., Beausir, B., & Fressengeas, C. (2015). Analysis of Dynamic Recrystallization of Ice from EBSD Orientation Mapping. Frontiers in Earth Science, 3, 81.
Abstract: We present high resolution observations of microstructure and texture evolution during dynamic
recrystallization (DRX) of ice polycrystals deformed in the laboratory at high temperature (0.98Tm). Ice possesses a significant viscoplastic anisotropy that induces strong strain heterogeneities, which result in an early occurrence of DRX mechanisms. It is therefore a model material to explore these mechanisms. High resolution c-axis measurements at sample scale by optical techniques and full crystallographic orientation measurements by cryo- Electron Back Scattering Diffraction (EBSD) provide a solid database for analyzing the relative impact of the macroscopic imposed stress versus the local and internal stress field on DRX mechanisms. Analysis of misorientation gradients in the EBSD data highlights a heterogeneous dislocation distribution, which is quantified by the Nye tensor estimation. Joint analyses of the dislocation density maps and microstructural observations highlight spatial correlation between high dislocation density sites and the onset of nucleation taking place by grain-boundary bulging, subgrain rotation or by the formation of kink-bands. |
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Peng, S. S., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Peylin, P., Cadule, P., Sitch, S., et al. (2015). Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29(1), 46–64.
Abstract: We evaluated the seasonality of CO2 fluxes simulated by nine terrestrial ecosystem models of the TRENDY project against (1) the seasonal cycle of gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at flux tower sites over different biomes, (2) gridded monthly Model Tree Ensembles-estimated GPP (MTE-GPP) and MTE-NEE obtained by interpolating many flux tower measurements with a machine-learning algorithm, (3) atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements at surface sites, and (4) CO2 total columns (X-CO2) measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). For comparison with atmospheric CO2 measurements, the LMDZ4 transport model was run with time-varying CO2 fluxes of each model as surface boundary conditions. Seven out of the nine models overestimate the seasonal amplitude of GPP and produce a too early start in spring at most flux sites. Despite their positive bias for GPP, the nine models underestimate NEE at most flux sites and in the Northern Hemisphere compared with MTE-NEE. Comparison with surface atmospheric CO2 measurements confirms that most models underestimate the seasonal amplitude of NEE in the Northern Hemisphere (except CLM4C and SDGVM). Comparison with TCCON data also shows that the seasonal amplitude of X-CO2 is underestimated by more than 10% for seven out of the nine models (except for CLM4C and SDGVM) and that the MTE-NEE product is closer to the TCCON data using LMDZ4. From CO2 columns measured routinely at 10 TCCON sites, the constrained amplitude of NEE over the Northern Hemisphere is of 1.60.4 gC m(-2)d(-1), which translates into a net CO2 uptake during the carbon uptake period in the Northern Hemisphere of 7.92.0 PgC yr(-1).
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Philip, A., Capolo, L., Meyssonnier, J., & Baruchel, J. (2015). Inception and movement of a 'subgrain boundary precursor' in ice under an applied stress, observed by X-ray synchrotron radiation Bragg imaging. Journal Of Applied Crystallography, 48, 672–678.
Abstract: Basal slip of dislocations, the easiest deformation mechanism of ice crystals, does not allow a response to any strain state. The first steps of another mechanism, with a moving subgrain boundary precursor region, which permits accommodating the effect of an applied load, is investigated on an ice single crystal, mainly using synchrotron radiation Bragg diffraction imaging. During this process, the evolution of the local integrated intensity shows that there is both a general multiplication of dislocations within the crystal and a movement of basal dislocations towards the surface. The 'subgrain boundary precursor' region evolves towards a classical grain boundary when further deformed.
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Piazolo, S., Montagnat, M., Grennerat, F., Moulinec, H., & Wheeler, J. (2015). Effect of local stress heterogeneities on dislocation fields: Examples from transient creep in polycrystalline ice. Acta Materialia, 90, 303–309.
Abstract: This work presents a coupled experimental and modeling approach to better understand the role of stress field heterogeneities on deformation behavior in material with a high viscoplastic anisotropy e.g. polycrystalline ice. Full-field elasto-viscoplastic modeling is used to predict the local stress and strain field during transient creep in a polycrystalline ice sample. Modeling input includes the experimental starting microstructure and a validated slip system dependent flow law. EBSD measurements on selected areas are used to estimate the local dislocation field utilizing the Weighted Burgers Vector (WBV) analysis. Areas of local stress concentration correlate with triple junctions and grain boundaries, originating from strain incompatibilities between differently oriented grains. In these areas of highly heterogeneous stress patterns, (a) kink bands are formed and (b) WBV analysis shows a non-negligible c-axis component of the WBV. The correlation between this defect structure and presence of kink bands suggests that kink band formation is an efficient accommodation deformation mode. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Quiquet, A., Archibald, A. T., Friend, A. D., Chappellaz, J., Levine, J. G., Stone, E. J., et al. (2015). The relative importance of methane sources and sinks over the Last Interglacial period and into the last glaciation. Quaternary Science Reviews, 112, 1–16.
Abstract: All recent climatic projections for the next century suggest that we are heading towards a warmer climate than today (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Fifth Assessment Report), driven by increasing atmospheric burdens of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. In particular, the volume mixing ratio of methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, has increased by a factor of similar to 2.5 from the beginning of the European Industrial Revolution. Due to their complex responses to climatic factors, understanding of the dynamics of future global methane emissions and sinks is crucial for the next generation of climate projections. Of relevance to this problem, the Earth likely experienced warmer average temperatures than today during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period (130-115 kaBP). Interestingly, ice cores do not indicate a different methane mixing ratio from the Pre-Industrial Holocene (PIH), in other words the current interglacial period prior to anthropogenic influence. This is surprising as warmer temperatures might be expected to increase methane emissions. The present study aims to improve our understanding of the changes in the global methane budget through quantifying the relative importance of sources and sinks of methane during the last full glacial interglacial cycle. A fairly limited number of studies have investigated this cycle at the millenium time scale with most of them examining the doubling in CH4 from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the PIH. Though it is still a matter of debate, a general consensus suggests a predominant role to the change in methane emissions from wetlands and only a limited change in the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere. In the present study we provide an estimate of the relative importance of sources and sinks during the LIG period, using a complex climate chemistry model to quantify the sinks, and a methane emissions model included in a global land surface model, for the sources. We are not aware of any previous studies that have explicitly tackled sources and sinks of methane in the previous interglacial. Our results suggest that both emissions and sinks of methane were higher during the LIG period, relative to the PIH, resulting in similar atmospheric concentrations of methane. Our simulated change in methane lifetime is primarily driven by climate (i.e. air temperature and humidity). However, a significant part of the reduced methane lifetime is also attributable to the impact of changes in NO emissions from lightning. An increase in biogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds during the LIG seems unlikely to have compensated for the impact of temperature and humidity. Surface methane emissions from wetlands were higher in northern latitudes due to an increase of summer temperature, whilst the change in the tropics is less certain. Simulated methane emissions are strongly sensitive to the atmospheric forcing, with most of this sensitivity related to changes in wetland extent. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Rawlins, M. A., McGuire, A. D., Kimball, J. S., Dass, P., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., et al. (2015). Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia. Biogeosciences, 12(14), 4385–4405.
Abstract: A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960-2009 at 0.5 degrees resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g Cm-2 yr(-2), equivalent to 3 to 340% of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135% of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960-1969 vs. 2000-2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30% from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.
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Reveillet, M., Rabatel, A., Gillet-Chaulet, F., & Soruco, A. (2015). Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16 degrees S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections. Annals Of Glaciology, 56(70), 89–97.
Abstract: Bolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997-2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 +/- 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 +/- 7% and 89 +/- 4% loss of volume, respectively.
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Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., & Hindmarsh, R. C. A. (2015). Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations. Nature, 528(7580), 115–+.
Abstract: Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI)(1), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence(2-4) that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions(5-8), the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging(9): numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive(2,3,10) to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections(11) rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments9 (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.
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Rysman, J. F., Verrier, S., Lahellec, A., & Genthon, C. (2015). Analysis of Boundary-Layer Statistical Properties at Dome C, Antarctica. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 156(1), 145–155.
Abstract: The atmospheric boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau is unique on account of its isolated location and extreme stability. Here we investigate the characteristics of the boundary layer using wind and temperature measurements from a 45-m high tower located at Dome C. First, spectral analysis reveals that both fields have a scaling behaviour from 30 min to 10 days (spectral slope ). Wind and temperature time series also show a multifractal behaviour. Therefore, it is possible to fit the moment-scaling function to the universal multifractal model and obtain multifractal parameters for temperature () and wind speed (). The same analysis is repeated separately in winter and summer at six different heights. The parameter shows a strong stratification with height especially in summer, implying that properties of turbulence change surprisingly rapidly from the ground to the top of the tower.
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Trouvilliez, A., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Bellot, H., Genthon, C., & Gallee, H. (2015). Evaluation of the FlowCapt Acoustic Sensor for the Aeolian Transport of Snow. Journal Of Atmospheric And Oceanic Technology, 32(9), 1630–1641.
Abstract: FlowCapt acoustic sensors, designed for measuring the aeolian transport of snow fluxes, are compared to the snow particle counter S7optical sensor, considered herein as the reference. They were compared in the French Alps at the Lac Blanc Pass, where a bench test for the aeolian transport of snow was set up. The two existing generations of FlowCapt are compared. Both seem to be good detectors for the aeolian transport of snow, especially for transport events with a flux above 1 g m(-2) s(-1). The second-generation FlowCapt is also compared in terms of quantification. The aeolian snow mass fluxes and snow quantity transported recorded by the second-generation FlowCapt are close to the integrative snow particle counter S7 fluxes for an event without precipitation, but they are underestimated when an event with precipitation is considered. When the winter season is considered, for integrative snow particle counter S7 fluxes above 20 g m(-2) s(-1), the second-generation FlowCapt fluxes are underestimated, regardless of precipitation. In conclusion, both generations of FlowCapt can be used as a drifting snow detector and the second generation can record an underestimation of the quantity of snow transported at one location: over the winter season, the quantity of snow transported recorded by the SPC is between 4 and 6 times greater than the quantity recorded by the second-generation FlowCapt.
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Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Dumont, M., Jomelli, V., Gilbert, A., Brunstein, D., et al. (2015). Recent glacier decline in the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E) derived from modeling, field observations, and satellite data. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 120(3), 637–654.
Abstract: The retreat of glaciers in the Kerguelen Islands (49 degrees S, 69 degrees E) and their associated climatic causes have been analyzed using field data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to validate a positive degree-day (PDD) model forced by data from local meteorological stations. Mass balance measurements made during recent field campaigns on the largest glacier of the Cook Ice Cap were compared to data from the early 1970s, providing a 40year view of the differences in the spatial distribution of surface mass balance (SMB). To obtain additional regional data for the validation of our models, we analyzed MODIS images (2000-2012) to determine if our model was capable of reproducing variations in the transient snow line. The PDD model correctly simulated the variations in the snow line, the spatial variations in the SMB, and its trend with elevation. Yet current SMB values diverge from their classic linear representation with elevation, and stake data at high altitudes now display more negative SMB values than expected. By analyzing MODIS albedo, we observed that these values are caused by the disappearance of snow and associated feedback on melt rates. In addition, certain parts of Ampere Glacier could not be reproduced by the surface energy balance model because of overaccumulation due to wind deposition. Finally, the MODIS data, field data, and our models suggest that the acceleration of glacier wastage in Kerguelen is due to reduced net accumulation and an associated rise in the snow line since the 1970s.
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Wang, T., Peng, S. S., Krinner, G., Ryder, J., Li, Y., Dantec-Nedelec, S., et al. (2015). Impacts of Satellite-Based Snow Albedo Assimilation on Offline and Coupled Land Surface Model Simulations. Plos One, 10(9).
Abstract: Seasonal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is the largest component of the terrestrial cryosphere and plays a major role in the climate system through strong positive feedbacks related to albedo. The snow-albedo feedback is invoked as an important cause for the polar amplification of ongoing and projected climate change, and its parameterization across models is an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations. Here, instead of developing a physical snow albedo scheme, we use a direct insertion approach to assimilate satellite- based surface albedo during the snow season (hereafter as snow albedo assimilation) into the land surface model ORCHIDEE (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and assess the influences of such assimilation on offline and coupled simulations. Our results have shown that snow albedo assimilation in both ORCHIDEE and ORCHIDEE-LMDZ (a general circulation model of Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique) improve the simulation accuracy of mean seasonal (October throughout May) snow water equivalent over the region north of 40 degrees. The sensitivity of snow water equivalent to snow albedo assimilation is more pronounced in the coupled simulation than the offline simulation since the feedback of albedo on air temperature is allowed in ORCHIDEE-LMDZ. We have also shown that simulations of air temperature at 2 meters in ORCHIDEE-LMDZ due to snow albedo assimilation are significantly improved during the spring in particular over the eastern Siberia region. This is a result of the fact that high amounts of shortwave radiation during the spring can maximize its snow albedo feedback, which is also supported by the finding that the spatial sensitivity of temperature change to albedo change is much larger during the spring than during the autumn and winter. In addition, the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere induced by snow albedo assimilation during the spring is estimated to be -2.50 Wm(-2), the magnitude of which is almost comparable to that due to CO2 (2.83 Wm(-2)) increases since 1750. Our results thus highlight the necessity of realistic representation of snow albedo in the model and demonstrate the use of satellite-based snow albedo to improve model behaviors, which opens new avenues for constraining snow albedo feedback in earth system models.
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Wang, T., Peng, S. S., Ottle, C., & Ciais, P. (2015). Spring snow cover deficit controlled by intraseasonal variability of the surface energy fluxes. Environmental Research Letters, 10(2).
Abstract: Spring snow cover extent (SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased in the last four decades but with significant interannual variability. Investigations of the mechanisms that control SCE variations were almost exclusively focused on the year-to-year variability of forcing variables and SCE integrated over a certain period of the year (e.g. season). Here, we use state-of-the-art climate reanalysis dataset to analyze the contribution of different surface energy fluxes to the inception and development of below-normal spring SCE from an intraseasonal perspective. During years identified with lower-than-average SCE by the end of spring, higher-than-average net longwave radiation and sensible heat that is greater than the decrease of net shortwave radiation in the early spring snowmelt season induces the initial SCE deficit. This can be mainly explained by the finding that the increase of downwelling longwave radiation because of increased water vapor significantly exceeds the attenuation of downwelling short-wave radiation due to increased cloudiness. When a SCE deficit has been incepted in early spring, net shortwave radiation in late spring gradually becomes higher than average through snow albedo feedback, which further accelerates snowmelt. This suggests that shortwave radiation is not responsible for the initiation of negative SCE anomaly by the end of spring but acts as an amplifying feedback once the snow melt is started.
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Weiss, J., Ben Rhouma, W., Richeton, T., Dechanel, S., Louchet, F., & Truskinovsky, L. (2015). From Mild to Wild Fluctuations in Crystal Plasticity. Physical Review Letters, 114(10).
Abstract: Macroscopic crystal plasticity is classically viewed as an outcome of uncorrelated dislocation motions producing Gaussian fluctuations. An apparently conflicting picture emerged in recent years emphasizing highly correlated dislocation dynamics characterized by power-law distributed fluctuations. We use acoustic emission measurements in crystals with different symmetries to show that intermittent and continuous visions of plastic flow are not incompatible. We demonstrate the existence of crossover regimes where strongly intermittent events coexist with a Gaussian quasiequilibrium background and propose a simple theoretical framework compatible with these observations.
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Young, D. A., Lindzey, L. E., Blankenship, D. D., Greenbaum, J. S., de Gorord, A. G., Kempf, S. D., et al. (2015). Land-ice elevation changes from photon-counting swath altimetry: first applications over the Antarctic ice sheet. Journal Of Glaciology, 61(225), 17–28.
Abstract: Satellite altimetric time series allow high-precision monitoring of ice-sheet mass balance. Understanding elevation changes in these regions is important because outlet glaciers along ice-sheet margins are critical in controlling flow of inland ice. Here we discuss a new airborne altimetry dataset collected as part of the ICECAP (International Collaborative Exploration of the Cryosphere by Airborne Profiling) project over East Antarctica. Using the ALAMO (Airborne Laser Altimeter with Mapping Optics) system of a scanning photon-counting lidar combined with a laser altimeter, we extend the 2003-09 surface elevation record of NASA's ICESat satellite, by determining cross-track slope and thus independently correcting for ICESat's cross-track pointing errors. In areas of high slope, cross-track errors result in measured elevation change that combines surface slope and the actual Delta z/Delta t signal. Slope corrections are particularly important in coastal ice streams, which often exhibit both rapidly changing elevations and high surface slopes. As a test case (assuming that surface slopes do not change significantly) we observe a lack of ice dynamic change at Cook Ice Shelf, while significant thinning occurred at Totten and Denman Glaciers during 2003-09.
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Yue, C., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Thonicke, K., & van Leeuwen, T. T. (2015). Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(5), 1321–1338.
Abstract: Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought, so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901-2012, using the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, using a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997-2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr(-1), which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr(-1) as estimated by GFED3.1. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003-2012 is 3.1 Pg C yr(-1), which is within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2 : 8 +/- 0 : 8 Pg C yr(-1)). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr(-1) over 1901-2012, or 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Nino events. Our results suggest a “fire respiration partial compensation”. During the 10 lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr(-1)), fires mainly compensate for the heterotrophic respiration that would occur in a world without fire. By contrast, during the 10 highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr(-1)), fire emissions far exceed their respiration partial compensation and create a larger reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our findings have important implications for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased frequency of droughts and extreme El Nino events.
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Zhu, D., Peng, S. S., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Druel, A., Kageyama, M., et al. (2015). Improving the dynamics of Northern Hemisphere high-latitude vegetation in the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(7), 2263–2283.
Abstract: Processes that describe the distribution of vegetation and ecosystem succession after disturbance are an important component of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The vegetation dynamics module (ORC-VD) within the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) has not been updated and evaluated since many years and is known to produce unrealistic results. This study presents a new parameterization of ORC-VD for mid- to high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including processes that influence the existence, mortality and competition between tree functional types. A new set of metrics is also proposed to quantify the performance of ORC-VD, using up to five different data sets of satellite land cover, forest biomass from remote sensing and inventories, a data-driven estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP) and two gridded data sets of soil organic carbon content. The scoring of ORC-VD derived from these metrics integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets. This multi-data set evaluation framework is a generic method that could be applied to the evaluation of other DGVM models. The results of the original ORC-VD published in 2005 for mid- to high-latitudes and of the new parameterization are evaluated against the above-described data sets. Significant improvements were found in the modeling of the distribution of tree functional types north of 40 degrees N. Three additional sensitivity runs were carried out to separate the impact of different processes or drivers on simulated vegetation distribution, including soil freezing which limits net primary production through soil moisture availability in the root zone, elevated CO2 concentration since 1850, and the effects of frequency and severity of extreme cold events during the spin-up phase of the model.
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2014 |
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Barral, H., Genthon, C., Trouvilliez, A., Brun, C., & Amory, C. (2014). Blowing snow in coastal Adelie Land, Antarctica: three atmospheric-moisture issues. Cryosphere, 8(5), 1905–1919.
Abstract: A total of 3 years of blowing-snow observations and associated meteorology along a 7 m mast at site D17 in coastal Adelie Land are presented. The observations are used to address three atmospheric-moisture issues related to the occurrence of blowing snow, a feature which largely affects many regions of Antarctica: ( 1) blowing-snow sublimation raises the moisture content of the surface atmosphere close to saturation, and atmospheric models and meteorological analyses that do not carry blowing-snow parameterizations are affected by a systematic dry bias; ( 2) while snowpack modelling with a parameterization of surface-snow erosion by wind can reproduce the variability of snow accumulation and ablation, ignoring the high levels of atmospheric-moisture content associated with blowing snow results in overestimating surface sublimation, affecting the energy budget of the snowpack; ( 3) the well-known profile method of calculating turbulent moisture fluxes is not applicable when blowing snow occurs, because moisture gradients are weak due to blowing-snow sublimation, and the impact of measurement uncertainties are strongly amplified in the case of strong winds.
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Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., & Ritz, C. (2014). Interdependence of the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation: the role of atmospheric circulation. Climate Of The Past, 10(1), 345–358.
Abstract: The development of large continental-scale ice sheets over Canada and northern Europe during the last glacial cycle likely modified the track of stationary waves and influenced the location of growing ice sheets through changes in accumulation and temperature patterns. Although they are often mentioned in the literature, these feedback mechanisms are poorly constrained and have never been studied throughout an entire glacial-interglacial cycle. Using the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 coupled with the 3-D ice-sheet model GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice model), we investigate the impact of stationary waves on the construction of past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the past glaciation. The stationary waves are not explicitly computed in the model but their effect on sea-level pressure is parameterized. We tested different parameterizations to study separately the effect of surface temperature (thermal forcing) and topography (orographic forcing) on sea-level pressure, and therefore on atmospheric circulation and ice-sheet surface mass balance. Our model results suggest that the response of ice sheets to thermal and/or orographic forcings is rather different. At the beginning of the glaciation, the orographic effect favors the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, whereas Fennoscandia appears rather sensitive to the thermal effect. Using the ablation parameterization as a trigger to artificially modify the size of one ice sheet, the remote influence of one ice sheet on the other is also studied as a function of the stationary wave parameterizations. The sensitivity of remote ice sheets is shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of these parameterizations with a larger response when orographic effect is accounted for. Results presented in this study suggest that the various spatial distributions of ice sheets could be partly explained by the feedback mechanisms occurring between ice sheets and atmospheric circulation.
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Bentley, M. J., Cofaigh, C. O., Anderson, J. B., Conway, H., Davies, B., Graham, A. G. C., et al. (2014). A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 100, 1–9.
Abstract: A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse la. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Bonan, B., Nodet, M., Ritz, C., & Peyaud, V. (2014). An ETKF approach for initial state and parameter estimation in ice sheet modelling. Nonlinear Processes In Geophysics, 21(2), 569–582.
Abstract: Estimating the contribution of Antarctica and Greenland to sea-level rise is a hot topic in glaciology. Good estimates rely on our ability to run a precisely calibrated ice sheet evolution model starting from a reliable initial state. Data assimilation aims to provide an answer to this problem by combining the model equations with observations. In this paper we aim to study a state-of-the-art ensemble Kalman filter (ETKF) to address this problem. This method is implemented and validated in the twin experiments framework for a shallow ice flowline model of ice dynamics. The results are very encouraging, as they show a good convergence of the ETKF (with localisation and inflation), even for small-sized ensembles.
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Brucker, L., Dinnat, E. P., Picard, G., & Champollion, N. (2014). Effect of Snow Surface Metamorphism on Aquarius L-Band Radiometer Observations at Dome C, Antarctica. Ieee Transactions On Geoscience And Remote Sensing, 52(11), 7408–7417.
Abstract: The Antarctic Plateau presents ideal characteristics to study the relationship between microwave observations and snow/ice properties. It is also a promising target for radiometer calibration and sensor intercalibration, which are critical for applications requiring subkelvin accuracy, such as sea surface salinity retrievals. This paper presents the spaceborne Aquarius L-band radiometric observations collected since August 2011 over the Antarctic Plateau, and it focuses on their temporal evolutions at Dome C (75.1 degrees S, 123.35 degrees E). Aquarius operates three radiometers with a sensitivity of 0.15 K (over the oceans), allowing us to analyze small variations in brightness temperature (TB) and changes with incidence angles. Over the Antarctic Plateau, Aquarius TBs have a relatively low annual standard deviation (0.2-0.9 K) where melting never occurs. However, the analysis of the TB time series at Dome C revealed significant variations (up to 2.5 K) in summer. First, these variations are compared with a remote sensing grain index (GI) based on high-frequency (89 and 150 GHz) shallow-penetration TB channels. Variations in the ratio of TBs observed at horizontal and vertical polarizations are synchronous with GI changes. Second, Aquarius TB variations are compared with the presence of hoar crystals on the surface identified using surface-based near-infrared photographs. The largest and longest changes in TBs correspond to periods with hoar crystals on the surface. Therefore, in spite of the deep penetration of the L-band radiation, evolutions of the snow properties near the surface, which usually change rapidly and irregularly, do influence L-band observations. Collection of accurate snow surface measurements and thorough analyses of the L-band observations are thus needed to use the Antarctic Plateau as a calibration/inter-calibration target.
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Carmagnola, C. M., Morin, S., Lafaysse, M., Domine, F., Lesaffre, B., Lejeune, Y., et al. (2014). Implementation and evaluation of prognostic representations of the optical diameter of snow in the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus detailed snowpack model. Cryosphere, 8(2), 417–437.
Abstract: In the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus multi-layer snowpack model, the snow microstructure has up to now been characterised by the grain size and by semi-empirical shape variables which cannot be measured easily in the field or linked to other relevant snow properties. In this work we introduce a new formulation of snow metamorphism directly based on equations describing the rate of change of the optical diameter (d(opt)). This variable is considered here to be equal to the equivalent sphere optical diameter, which is inversely proportional to the specific surface area (SSA). d(opt) thus represents quantitatively some of the geometric characteristics of a porous medium. Different prognostic rate equations of d(opt), including a re-formulation of the original Crocus scheme and the parameterisations from Taillandier et al. (2007) and Flanner and Zender (2006), were evaluated by comparing their predictions to field measurements carried out at Summit Camp (Greenland) in May and June 2011 and at Col de Porte (French Alps) during the 2009/10 and 2011/12 winter seasons. We focused especially on results in terms of SSA. In addition, we tested the impact of the different formulations on the simulated density profile, the total snow height, the snow water equivalent (SWE) and the surface albedo. Results indicate that all formulations perform well, with median values of the RMSD between measured and simulated SSA lower than 10 m(2) kg(-1). Incorporating the optical diameter as a fully fledged prognostic variable is an important step forward in the quantitative description of the snow microstructure within snowpack models, because it opens the way to data assimilation of various electromagnetic observations.
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Crichton, K. A., Roche, D. M., Krinner, G., & Chappellaz, J. (2014). A simplified permafrost-carbon model for long-term climate studies with the CLIMBER-2 coupled earth system model. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(6), 3111–3134.
Abstract: We present the development and validation of a simplified permafrost-carbon mechanism for use with the land surface scheme operating in the CLIMBER-2 earth system model. The simplified model estimates the permafrost fraction of each grid cell according to the balance between modelled cold (below 0 degrees C) and warm (above 0 degrees C) days in a year. Areas diagnosed as permafrost are assigned a reduction in soil decomposition rate, thus creating a slow accumulating soil carbon pool. In warming climates, permafrost extent reduces and soil decomposition rates increase, resulting in soil carbon release to the atmosphere. Four accumulation/decomposition rate settings are retained for experiments within the CLIMBER-2(P) model, which are tuned to agree with estimates of total land carbon stocks today and at the last glacial maximum. The distribution of this permafrost-carbon pool is in broad agreement with measurement data for soil carbon content. The level of complexity of the permafrost-carbon model is comparable to other components in the CLIMBER-2 earth system model.
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Dansereau, V., Heimbach, P., & Losch, M. (2014). Simulation of subice shelf melt rates in a general circulation model: Velocity-dependent transfer and the role of friction. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 119(3), 1765–1790.
Abstract: Two parameterizations of turbulent boundary layer processes at the interface between an ice shelf and the ocean beneath are investigated in terms of their impact on simulated melt rates and feedbacks. The parameterizations differ in the transfer coefficients for heat and freshwater fluxes. In their simplest form, they are assumed constant and hence are independent of the velocity of ocean currents at the ice shelf base. An augmented melt rate parameterization accounts for frictional turbulence via transfer coefficients that do depend on boundary layer current velocities via a drag law. In simulations with both parameterizations for idealized as well as realistic cavity geometries under Pine Island Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, significant differences in melt rate patterns between the velocity-independent and velocity-dependent formulations are found. While patterns are strongly correlated to those of thermal forcing for velocity-independent transfer coefficients, melting in the case of velocity-dependent coefficients is collocated with regions of high boundary layer currents, in particular where rapid plume outflow occurs. Both positive and negative feedbacks between melt rates, boundary layer temperature, velocities, and buoyancy fluxes are identified. Melt rates are found to increase with increasing drag coefficient Cd, in agreement with plume model simulations, but optimal values of C-d inferred from plume models are not easily transferable. Uncertainties therefore remain, both regarding simulated melt rate spatial distributions and magnitudes. Key Points <list list-type=“bulleted”> Different parameterizations of sub-iceshelf melting give different melt patterns The choice of parameterization impacts the simulated shelf-ocean interactions
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de Fleurian, B., Gagliardini, O., Zwinger, T., Durand, G., Le Meur, E., Mair, D., et al. (2014). A double continuum hydrological model for glacier applications. Cryosphere, 8(1), 137–153.
Abstract: The flow of glaciers and ice streams is strongly influenced by the presence of water at the interface between ice and bed. In this paper, a hydrological model evaluating the subglacial water pressure is developed with the final aim of estimating the sliding velocities of glaciers. The global model fully couples the subglacial hydrology and the ice dynamics through a water-dependent friction law. The hydrological part of the model follows a double continuum approach which relies on the use of porous layers to compute water heads in inefficient and efficient drainage systems. This method has the advantage of a relatively low computational cost that would allow its application to large ice bodies such as Greenland or Antarctica ice streams. The hydrological model has been implemented in the finite element code Elmer/Ice, which simultaneously computes the ice flow. Herein, we present an application to the Haut Glacier d'Arolla for which we have a large number of observations, making it well suited to the purpose of validating both the hydrology and ice flow model components. The selection of hydrological, under-determined parameters from a wide range of values is guided by comparison of the model results with available glacier observations. Once this selection has been performed, the coupling between subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics is undertaken throughout a melt season. Results indicate that this new modelling approach for subglacial hydrology is able to reproduce the broad temporal and spatial patterns of the observed subglacial hydrological system. Furthermore, the coupling with the ice dynamics shows good agreement with the observed spring speed-up.
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Dumont, M., Brun, E., Picard, G., Michou, M., Libois, Q., Petit, J. R., et al. (2014). Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland's darkening since 2009. Nature Geoscience, 7(7), 509–512.
Abstract: The surface energy balance and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet depends on the albedo of snow, which governs the amount of solar energy that is absorbed. The observed decline of Greenland's albedo over the past decade(1-3) has been attributed to an enhanced growth of snow grains as a result of atmosphericwarming(1,2). Satellite observations show that, since 2009, albedo values even in springtime at high elevations have been lower than the 2003-2008 average. Here we show, using a numerical snow model, that the decrease in albedo cannot be attributed solely to grain growth enhancement. Instead, our analysis of remote sensing data indicates that the springtime darkening since 2009 stems from a widespread increase in the amount of light-absorbing impurities in snow, as well as in the atmosphere. We suggest that the transport of dust from snow-free areas in the Arctic that are experiencing earlier melting of seasonal snow cover(4) as the climate warms may be a contributing source of impurities. In our snow model simulations, a decrease in the albedo of fresh snow by 0.01 leads to a surface mass loss of 27 Gt yr(-1), which could induce an acceleration of Greenland's mass loss twice as large as over the past two decades(5). Future trends in light-absorbing impurities should therefore be considered in projections of Greenland mass loss.
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Dupont, F., Picard, G., Royer, A., Fily, M., Roy, A., Langlois, A., et al. (2014). Modeling the Microwave Emission of Bubbly Ice: Applications to Blue Ice and Superimposed Ice in the Antarctic and Arctic. Ieee Transactions On Geoscience And Remote Sensing, 52(10), 6639–6651.
Abstract: Passive microwave remote sensing is extensively used in polar regions to study the cryosphere. To better understand the measured signal above continental ice-covered areas, our objective is to estimate the microwave emission of bubbly-ice surfaces using a physically based multilayer electromagnetic model, i.e., the dense media radiative transfer-multilayer model (DMRT-ML). This model accounts for ice layers with variable amounts of bubbles. Each layer is fully described by its temperature, density, thickness, and air bubble radius. Simulations are performed using in situ data from two distinct sites: one in Antarctica on a coastal Blue Ice Area near the Cap Prud'Homme (CPH) station in Adelie Land and the other on the Barnes Ice Cap (BIC) located on Baffin Island in the Arctic. On this ice cap, superimposed ice with seasonal snow cover about 1 m thick was observed. In both cases, several ice parameters were measured or estimated, and the others were optimized. Results of the DMRT-ML simulations are compared with in situ surface-based radiometer (SBR) measurements at 11, 19, and 37 GHz at both horizontal and vertical polarizations. Results show that DMRT-ML is able to reproduce the microwave emission of different ice types with good accuracy when accounting for ice bubbles: final RMSE = 7.37 K and 8.42 K, for CPH and BIC, respectively, compared with RMSE ranging from 15 K to 40 K without bubbles. Comparisons between SBR measurements and satellite data for the BIC also show good agreement (RMSE = 4.1 K for 19 and 37 GHz, both polarizations).
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Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Gregory, J. M., et al. (2014). Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance-elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet. Cryosphere, 8(1), 195–208.
Abstract: We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000-2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6-16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.
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Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Gregory, J. M., et al. (2014). Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet. Cryosphere, 8(1), 181–194.
Abstract: We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB-elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77 degrees N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: -0.22 to 1.33) kg m(-3) a(-1) for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m(-3) a(-1) for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (-0.03 to 0.23) kg m(-3) a(-1) in the north, and 0.07 (-0.07 to 0.59) kg m(-3) a(-1) in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).
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Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., et al. (2014). Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability. Nature Climate Change, 4(2), 117–121.
Abstract: Over the past 40 years Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica has thinned at an accelerating rate(1-3), so that at present it is the largest single contributor to sea-level rise in Antarctica(4). In recent years, the grounding line, which separates the grounded ice sheet from the floating ice shelf, has retreated by tens of kilometres(5). At present, the grounding line is crossing a retrograde bedrock slope that lies well below sea level, raising the possibility that the glacier is susceptible to the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism(6-8). Here, using three state-of-the-art ice-flow models(9-11), we show that Pine Island Glacier's grounding line is probably engaged in an unstable 40 km retreat. The associated mass loss increases substantially over the course of our simulations from the average value of 20 Gt yr(-1) observed for the 1992-2011 period(4), up to and above 100 Gt yr(-1), equivalent to 3.5-10mm eustatic sea-level rise over the following 20 years. Mass loss remains elevated from then on, ranging from 60 to 120 Gt yr(-1).
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Freville, H., Brun, E., Picard, G., Tatarinova, N., Arnaud, L., Lanconelli, C., et al. (2014). Using MODIS land surface temperatures and the Crocus snow model to understand the warm bias of ERA-Interim reanalyses at the surface in Antarctica. Cryosphere, 8(4), 1361–1373.
Abstract: Moderate-Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperatures in Antarctica were processed in order to produce a gridded data set at 25 km resolution, spanning the period 2000-2011 at an hourly time step. The Aqua and Terra orbits and MODIS swath width, combined with frequent clear-sky conditions, lead to very high availability of quality-controlled observations: on average, hourly data are available 14 h per day at the grid points around the South Pole and more than 9 h over a large area of the Antarctic Plateau. Processed MODIS land surface temperatures, referred to hereinafter as MODIS T-s values, were compared with in situ hourly measurements of surface temperature collected over the entirety of the year 2009 by seven stations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and automatic weather stations (AWSs). In spite of an occasional failure in the detection of clouds, MODIS T-s values exhibit a good performance, with a bias ranging from -1.8 to 0.1 degrees C and errors ranging from 2.2 to 4.8 degrees C root mean square at the five stations located on the plateau. These results show that MODIS T-s values can be used as a precise and accurate reference to test other surface temperature data sets. Here, we evaluate the performance of surface temperature in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis known as ERA-Interim reanalysis. During conditions detected as cloud free by MODIS, ERA-Interim shows a widespread warm bias in Antarctica in every season, ranging from +3 to +6 degrees C on the plateau. This confirms a recent study which showed that the largest discrepancies in 2m air temperature between ERA-Interim and the global temperature data set HadCRUT4 compiled by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit occur in Antarctica. A comparison with in situ surface temperature shows that this bias is not strictly limited to clear-sky conditions. A detailed comparison with stand-alone simulations by the Crocus snowpack model, forced by ERA-Interim, and with the ERA-Interim/land simulations, shows that the warm bias may be due primarily to an overestimation of the surface turbulent fluxes in very stable conditions. Numerical experiments with Crocus show that a small change in the parameterization of the effects of stability on the surface exchange coefficients can significantly impact the snow surface temperature. The ERA-Interim warm bias appears to be likely due to an overestimation of the surface exchange coefficients under very stable conditions.
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Gilbert, A., Gagliardini, O., Vincent, C., & Wagnon, P. (2014). A 3-D thermal regime model suitable for cold accumulation zones of polythermal mountain glaciers. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 119(9), 1876–1893.
Abstract: Analysis of the thermal and mechanical response of high altitude glaciers to climate change is crucial to assess future glacier hazards associated with thermal regime changes. This paper presents a new fully thermo-mechanically coupled transient thermal regime model including enthalpy transport, firn densification, full-Stokes porous flow, free surface evolution, strain heating, surface meltwater percolation, and refreezing. The model is forced by daily air temperature data and can therefore be used to perform prognostic simulations for different future climate scenarios. The set of equations is solved using the finite element ice sheet/ice flow model Elmer/Ice. This model is applied to the Col du Dome glacier (Mont Blanc area, 4250ma.s.l., France) where a comprehensive data set is available. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing observed density and velocity fields as well as borehole temperature evolution. The strong spatial variability of englacial temperature change observed at Col du Dome is well reproduced. This spatial variability is mainly a result of the variability of the slope aspect of the glacier surface and snow accumulation. Results support the use of this model to study the influence of climate change on cold accumulation zones, in particular to estimate where and under what conditions glaciers will become temperate in the future.
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Gilbert, A., Vincent, C., Six, D., Wagnon, P., Piard, L., & Ginot, P. (2014). Modeling near-surface firn temperature in a cold accumulation zone (Col du Dome, French Alps): from a physical to a semi-parameterized approach. Cryosphere, 8(2), 689–703.
Abstract: Analysis of the thermal regime of glaciers is crucial for glacier hazard assessment, especially in the context of a changing climate. In particular, the transient thermal regime of cold accumulation zones needs to be modeled. A modeling approach has therefore been developed to determine this thermal regime using only near-surface boundary conditions coming from meteorological observations. In the first step, a surface energy balance (SEB) model accounting for water percolation and radiation penetration in firn was applied to identify the main processes that control the subsurface temperatures in cold firn. Results agree well with subsurface temperatures measured at Col du Dome (4250m above sea level (a.s.l.)), France. In the second step, a simplified model using only daily mean air temperature and potential solar radiation was developed. This model properly simulates the spatial variability of surface melting and subsurface firn temperatures and was used to accurately reconstruct the deep borehole temperature profiles measured at Col du Dome. Results show that percolation and refreezing are efficient processes for the transfer of energy from the surface to underlying layers. However, they are not responsible for any higher energy uptake at the surface, which is exclusively triggered by increasing energy flux from the atmosphere due to SEB changes when surface temperatures reach 0 degrees C. The resulting enhanced energy uptake makes cold accumulation zones very vulnerable to air temperature rise.
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Guimberteau, M., Ducharne, A., Ciais, P., Boisier, J. P., Peng, S., De Weirdt, M., et al. (2014). Testing conceptual and physically based soil hydrology schemes against observations for the Amazon Basin. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(3), 1115–1136.
Abstract: This study analyzes the performance of the two soil hydrology schemes of the land surface model ORCHIDEE in estimating Amazonian hydrology and phenology for five major sub-basins (Xingu, Tapajos, Madeira, Solimoes and Negro), during the 29-year period 1980-2008. A simple 2-layer scheme with a bucket topped by an evaporative layer is compared to an 11-layer diffusion scheme. The soil schemes are coupled with a river routing module and a process model of plant physiology, phenology and carbon dynamics. The simulated water budget and vegetation functioning components are compared with several data sets at sub-basin scale. The use of the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme does not significantly change the Amazonian water budget simulation when compared to the 2-layer soil scheme (+3.1 and -3.0% in evapotranspiration and river discharge, respectively). However, the higher water-holding capacity of the soil and the physically based representation of runoff and drainage in the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme result in more dynamic soil water storage variation and improved simulation of the total terrestrial water storage when compared to GRACE satellite estimates. The greater soil water storage within the 11-layer scheme also results in increased dry-season evapotranspiration (+0.5mm d(-1), + 17 %) and improves river discharge simulation in the southeastern sub-basins such as the Xingu. Evapotranspiration over this sub-basin is sustained during the whole dry season with the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme, whereas the 2-layer scheme limits it after only 2 dry months. Lower plant drought stress simulated by the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme leads to better simulation of the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis (GPP) when compared to a GPP data-driven model based on eddy covariance and satellite greenness measurements. A dry-season length between 4 and 7 months over the entire Amazon Basin is found to be critical in distinguishing differences in hydrological feedbacks between the soil and the vegetation cover simulated by the two soil schemes. On average, the multilayer soil diffusion scheme provides little improvement in simulated hydrology over the wet tropical Amazonian sub-basins, but a more significant improvement is found over the drier sub-basins. The use of a multilayer soil diffusion scheme might become critical for assessments of future hydrological changes, especially in southern regions of the Amazon Basin where longer dry seasons and more severe droughts are expected in the next century.
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Hodgson, D. A., Graham, A. G. C., Roberts, S. J., Bentley, M. J., Cofaigh, C. O., Verleyen, E., et al. (2014). Terrestrial and submarine evidence for the extent and timing of the Last Glacial Maximum and the onset of deglaciation on the maritime-Antarctic and sub-Antarctic islands. Quaternary Science Reviews, 100, 137–158.
Abstract: This paper is the maritime and sub Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Jomelli, V., Favier, V., Vuille, M., Braucher, R., Martin, L., Blard, P. H., et al. (2014). A major advance of tropical Andean glaciers during the Antarctic cold reversal. Nature, 513(7517), 224–+.
Abstract: The Younger Dryas stadial, a cold event spanning 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, during the last deglaciation, is thought to coincide with the last major glacial re-advance in the tropical Andes(1). This interpretation relies mainly on cosmic-ray exposure dating of glacial deposits. Recent studies, however, have established new production rates' for cosmogenic Be-10 and He-3, which make it necessary to update all chronologies in this region(1,5-15) and revise our understanding of cryospheric responses to climate variability. Here we present a new Be-10 moraine chronology in Colombia showing that glaciers in the northern tropical Andes expanded to a larger extent during the Antarctic cold reversal (14,500 to 12,900 years ago) than during the Younger Dryas. On the basis of a homogenized chronology of all Be-10 and He-3 moraine ages across the tropical Andes, we show that this behaviour was common to the northern and southern tropical Andes. Transient simulations with a coupled global climate model suggest that the common glacier behaviour was the result of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability superimposed on a deglacial increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. During the Antarctic cold reversal, glaciers advanced primarily in response to cold sea surface temperatures over much of the Southern Hemisphere. During the Younger Dryas, however, northern tropical Andes glaciers retreated owing to abrupt regional warming in response to reduced precipitation and land-surface feedbacks triggered by a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Conversely, glacier retreat during the Younger Dryas in the southern tropical Andes occurred as a result of progressive warming, probably influenced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Considered with evidence from mid-latitude Andean glaciers(16), our results argue for a common glacier response to cold conditions in the Antarctic cold reversal exceeding that of the Younger Dryas.
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Jullien, S., Marchesiello, P., Menkes, C. E., Lefevre, J., Jourdain, N. C., Samson, G., et al. (2014). Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes. Climate Dynamics, 43(9-10), 2831–2854.
Abstract: This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air-sea coupling processes controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The coupling effect is analyzed through comparison of the coupled model with a companion forced experiment. Cyclogenesis patterns in the coupled model are closer to observations with reduced cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. This provides novel evidence of air-sea coupling impacting not only intensity but also spatial cyclogenesis distribution. Storm-induced cooling and consequent negative feedback is stronger for regions of shallow mixed layers and thin or absent barrier layers as in the Coral Sea. The statistical effect of oceanic mesoscale eddies on TC intensity (crossing over them 20 % of the time) is also evidenced. Anticyclonic eddies provide an insulating effect againststorm-induced upwelling and mixing and appear to reduce sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. Cyclonic eddies on the contrary tend to promote strong cooling, particularly through storm-induced upwelling. Air-sea coupling is shown to have a significant role on the intensification process but the sensitivity of TCs to SST cooling is nonlinear and generally lower than predicted by thermodynamic theories: about 15 rather than over 30 hPa degrees C-1 and only for strong cooling. The reason is that the cooling effect is not instantaneous but accumulated over time within the TC inner-core. These results thus contradict the classical evaporation-wind feedback process as being essential to intensification and rather emphasize the role of macro-scale dynamics.
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Kingslake, J., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Aoalgeirsdottir, G., Conway, H., Corr, H. F. J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., et al. (2014). Full-depth englacial vertical ice sheet velocities measured using phase-sensitive radar. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 119(12), 2604–2618.
Abstract: We describe a geophysical technique to measure englacial vertical velocities through to the beds of ice sheets without the need for borehole drilling. Using a ground-based phase-sensitive radio echo sounder (pRES) during seven Antarctic field seasons, we measure the temporal changes in the position of englacial reflectors within ice divides up to 900m thick on Berkner Island, Roosevelt Island, Fletcher Promontory, and Adelaide Island. Recorded changes in reflector positions yield full-depth profiles of vertical ice velocity that we use to examine spatial variations in ice flow near the divides. We interpret these variations by comparing them to the results of a full-Stokes simulation of ice divide flow, qualitatively validating the model and demonstrating that we are directly detecting an ice-dynamical phenomenon called the Raymond Effect. Using pRES, englacial vertical ice velocities can be measured in higher spatial resolution than is possible using instruments installed within the ice. We discuss how these measurements could be used with inverse methods to measure ice rheology and to improve ice core dating by incorporating pRES-measured vertical velocities into age modeling.
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Krinner, G., Largeron, C., Menegoz, M., Agosta, C., & Brutel-Vuilmet, C. (2014). Oceanic Forcing of Antarctic Climate Change: A Study Using a Stretched-Grid Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Journal Of Climate, 27(15), 5786–5800.
Abstract: A variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used for climate change projections over the Antarctic. The present-day simulation uses prescribed observed sea surface conditions, while a set of five simulations for the end of the twenty-first century (2070-99) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario uses sea surface condition anomalies from selected coupled ocean atmosphere climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Analysis of the results shows that the prescribed sea surface condition anomalies have a very strong influence on the simulated climate change on the Antarctic continent, largely dominating the direct effect of the prescribed greenhouse gas concentration changes in the AGCM simulations. Complementary simulations with idealized forcings confirm these results. An analysis of circulation changes using self-organizing maps shows that the simulated climate change on regional scales is not principally caused by shifts of the frequencies of the dominant circulation patterns, except for precipitation changes in some coastal regions. The study illustrates that in some respects the use of bias-corrected sea surface boundary conditions in climate projections with a variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model has some distinct advantages over the use of limited-area atmospheric circulation models directly forced by generally biased coupled climate model output.
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Krug, J., Weiss, J., Gagliardini, O., & Durand, G. (2014). Combining damage and fracture mechanics to model calving. Cryosphere, 8(6), 2101–2117.
Abstract: Calving of icebergs is a major negative component of polar ice-sheet mass balance. Here we present a new calving model relying on both continuum damage mechanics and linear elastic fracture mechanics. This combination accounts for both the slow sub-critical surface crevassing and the rapid propagation of crevasses when calving occurs. First, damage to the ice occurs over long timescales and enhances the viscous flow of ice. Then brittle fractures propagate downward, at very short timescales, when the ice body is considered as an elastic medium. The model was calibrated on Helheim Glacier, Southeast Greenland, a well-monitored glacier with fast-flowing outlet. This made it possible to identify sets of model parameters to enable a consistent response of the model and to produce a dynamic equilibrium in agreement with the observed stable position of the Helheim ice front between 1930 and today.
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Le Meur, E., Sacchettini, M., Garambois, S., Berthier, E., Drouet, A. S., Durand, G., et al. (2014). Two independent methods for mapping the grounding line of an outlet glacier – an example from the Astrolabe Glacier, Terre Ad lie, Antarctica. Cryosphere, 8(4), 1331–1346.
Abstract: The grounding line is a key element of coastal outlet glaciers, acting on their dynamics. Accurately knowing its position is fundamental for both modelling the glacier dynamics and establishing a benchmark for later change detection. Here we map the grounding line of the Astrolabe Glacier in East Antarctica (66 degrees 41'S, 140 degrees 05'E), using both hydrostatic and tidal methods. The first method is based on new surface and ice thickness data from which the line of buoyant floatation is found. The second method uses kinematic GPS measurements of the tidal response of the ice surface. By detecting the transitions where the ice starts to move vertically in response to the tidal forcing we determine control points for the grounding line position along GPS profiles. Employing a two-dimensional elastic plate model, we compute the rigid short-term behaviour of the ice plate and estimate the correction required to compare the kinematic GPS control points with the previously determined line of floatation. These two approaches show consistency and lead us to propose a grounding line for the Astrolabe Glacier that significantly deviates from the lines obtained so far from satellite imagery.
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Legchenko, A., Vincent, C., Baltassat, J. M., Girard, J. F., Thibert, E., Gagliardini, O., et al. (2014). Monitoring water accumulation in a glacier using magnetic resonance imaging. Cryosphere, 8(1), 155–166.
Abstract: Tete Rousse is a small polythermal glacier located in the Mont Blanc area (French Alps) at an altitude of 3100 to 3300 m. In 1892, an outburst flood from this glacier released about 200 000m(3) of water mixed with ice, causing much damage. A new accumulation of melt water in the glacier was not excluded. The uncertainty related to such glacier conditions initiated an extensive geophysical study for evaluating the hazard. Using three-dimensional surface nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (3-D-SNMR), we showed that the temperate part of the Tete Rousse glacier contains two separate water-filled caverns (central and upper caverns). In 2009, the central cavern contained about 55 000m(3) of water. Since 2010, the cavern is drained every year. We monitored the changes caused by this pumping in the water distribution within the glacier body. Twice a year, we carried out magnetic resonance imaging of the entire glacier and estimated the volume of water accumulated in the central cavern. Our results show changes in cavern geometry and recharge rate: in two years, the central cavern lost about 73% of its initial volume, but 65% was lost in one year after the first pumping. We also observed that, after being drained, the cavern was recharged at an average rate of 20 to 25m(3) d(-1) during the winter months and 120 to 180m(3) d(-1) in summer. These observations illustrate how ice, water and air may refill englacial volume being emptied by artificial draining. Comparison of the 3-D-SNMR results with those obtained by drilling and pumping showed a very good correspondence, confirming the high reliability of 3-D-SNMR imaging.
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Libois, Q., Picard, G., Arnaud, L., Morin, S., & Brun, E. (2014). Modeling the impact of snow drift on the decameter-scale variability of snow properties on the Antarctic Plateau. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 119(20), 11662–11681.
Abstract: The annual accumulation and the physical properties of snow close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau are characterized by a large decameter-scale variability resulting from snow drift that is not simulated by one-dimensional snow evolution models. Here, the detailed snowpack model Crocus was adapted to Antarctic conditions and then modified to account for this drift-induced variability using a stochastic snow redistribution scheme. For this, 50 simulations were run in parallel and were allowed to exchange snow mass according to rules driven by wind speed. These simple rules were developed and calibrated based on in situ pictures of the snow surface recorded for two years. The simulation performed with this new model shows three substantial improvements with respect to standard Crocus simulations. First, significant and rapid variations of snow height observed in hourly measurements are well reproduced, highlighting the crucial role of snow drift in snow accumulation. Second, the statistics of annual accumulation is also simulated successfully, including the years with net ablation which are as frequent as 15% in the observations and 11% in the simulation. Last, the simulated vertical profiles of snow density and specific surface area down to 50cm depth were compared to 98 profiles measured at DomeC during the summer 2012-2013. The observed spatial variability is partly reproduced by the new model, especially close to the surface. The erosion/deposition processes explain why layers with density lower than 250kgm(-3) or specific surface area larger than 30m(2)kg(-1) can be found deeper than 10cm.
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Libois, Q., Picard, G., Dumont, M., Arnaud, L., Sergent, C., Pougatch, E., et al. (2014). Experimental determination of the absorption enhancement parameter of snow. Journal Of Glaciology, 60(222), 714–724.
Abstract: In optical models snow is commonly treated as a disperse collection of particles. In this representation, the penetration depth of solar radiation is sensitive to the shape of the particles, in particular to the absorption enhancement parameter, B, that quantifies the lengthening of the photon path inside grains due to internal multiple reflections. Spherical grains, with theoretical B=1.25, are often used. We propose an experimental method to determine B, and apply it to 36 snow samples and 56 snow strata. The method is based on radiative transfer modeling and combined measurements of reflectance and irradiance profiles. Such measurements are performed in the laboratory and in the field, in Antarctica and the French Alps. The retrieved values of B are in the range 0.7-2.4, with a wide peak between 1.4 and 1.8. An analysis of measurement error propagation based on a Bayesian framework shows that the uncertainty on B is +/- 0.1, which is the order of magnitude of variations between different snow types. Thus, no systematic link between B and snow type can be inferred. Here we recommend using shapes with B=1.6 to model snow optical properties, rather than spherical grains.
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Menegoz, M., Krinner, G., Balkanski, Y., Boucher, O., Cozic, A., Lim, S., et al. (2014). Snow cover sensitivity to black carbon deposition in the Himalayas: from atmospheric and ice core measurements to regional climate simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 14(8), 4237–4249.
Abstract: We applied a climate-chemistry global model to evaluate the impact of black carbon (BC) deposition on the Himalayan snow cover from 1998 to 2008. Using a stretched grid with a resolution of 50 km over this complex topography, the model reproduces reasonably well the remotely sensed observations of the snow cover duration. Similar to observations, modelled atmospheric BC concentrations in the central Himalayas reach a minimum during the monsoon and a maximum during the post-and pre-monsoon periods. Comparing the simulated BC concentrations in the snow with observations is more challenging because of their high spatial variability and complex vertical distribution. We simulated spring BC concentrations in surface snow varying from tens to hundreds of μg kg(-1), higher by one to two orders of magnitude than those observed in ice cores extracted from central Himalayan glaciers at high elevations (>6000ma.s.l.), but typical for seasonal snow cover sampled in middle elevation regions (<6000ma.s.l.). In these areas, we estimate that both wet and dry BC depositions affect the Himalayan snow cover reducing its annual duration by 1 to 8 days. In our simulations, the effect of anthropogenic BC deposition on snow is quite low over the Tibetan Plateau because this area is only sparsely snow covered. However, the impact becomes larger along the entire Hindu-Kush, Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. In these regions, BC in snow induces an increase of the net short-wave radiation at the surface with an annual mean of 1 to 3Wm(-2) leading to a localised warming between 0.05 and 0.3 degrees C.
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Montagnat, M., Azuma, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Eichler, J., Fujita, S., Gillet-Chaulet, F., et al. (2014). Fabric along the NEEM ice core, Greenland, and its comparison with GRIP and NGRIP ice cores. Cryosphere, 8(4), 1129–1138.
Abstract: Fabric (distribution of crystallographic orientations) along the full NEEM ice core, Greenland was measured in the field by an automatic ice texture analyzer every 10 m, from 33m down to 2461m depth. The fabric evolves from a slightly anisotropic fabric at the top, toward a strong single maximum at about 2300 m, which is typical of a deformation pattern mostly driven by uniaxial compression and simple shearing. A sharp increase in the fabric strengthening rate is observed at the Holocene to Wisconsin (HW) climatic transition. From a simple model we estimate that this depth is located at a transition from a state dominated by vertical compression to a state dominated by vertical shear. Comparisons are made to two others ice cores drilled along the same ridge; the GRIP ice core, drilled at the summit of the ice sheet, and the NGRIP ice core, drilled 325 km to the NNW of the summit along the ridge, and 365 km upstream from NEEM. This comparison tends to demonstrate that the ice viscosity change with the HW climatic transition must be associated with the shear-dominated state to induce the abrupt fabric strengthening observed at NEEM. This comparison therefore reflects the increasing role of shear deformation on the coring site when moving NW along the ridge from GRIP to NGRIP and NEEM. The difference in fabric profiles be-tween NEEM and NGRIP also evidences a stronger lateral extension associated with a sharper ridge at NGRIP. Further along the core, centimeter scale abrupt texture (fabric and microstructure) variations are observed in the bottom part of the core. Their positions are in good agreement with the observed folding layers in Dahl-Jensen et al. (2013).
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Montagnat, M., Castelnau, O., Bons, P. D., Faria, S. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., et al. (2014). Multiscale modeling of ice deformation behavior. Journal Of Structural Geology, 61, 78–108.
Abstract: Understanding the flow of ice in glaciers and polar ice sheets is of increasing relevance in a time of potentially significant climate change. The flow of ice has hitherto received relatively little attention from the structural geological community. This paper aims to provide an overview of methods and results of ice deformation modeling from the single crystal to the polycrystal scale, and beyond to the scale of polar ice sheets. All through these scales, various models have been developed to understand, describe and predict the processes that operate during deformation of ice, with the aim to correctly represent ice rheology and self-induced anisotropy. Most of the modeling tools presented in this paper originate from the material science community, and are currently used and further developed for other materials and environments. We will show that this community has deeply integrated ice as a very useful “model” material to develop and validate approaches in conditions of a highly anisotropic behavior. This review, by no means exhaustive, aims at providing an overview of methods at different scales and levels of complexity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Gim, Y., Kirchner, D., & Le Meur, E. (2014). Low-frequency radar sounding of ice in East Antarctica and southern Greenland. Annals Of Glaciology, 55(67), 138–146.
Abstract: We discuss a decameter-wavelength airborne radar sounder, the Warm Ice Sounding Explorer (WISE), that provides ice thickness in areas where radar signal penetration at higher frequencies is expected to be limited. Here we report results for three campaigns conducted in Greenland (2008, 2009, 2010) and two in Antarctica (2009, 2010). Comparisons with higher-frequency radar data indicate an accuracy of +/- 55 m for ice-thickness measurements in Greenland and +/- 25 m in Antarctica. We also estimate ice thickness of the Qassimiut lobe in southwest Greenland, where few ice-thickness measurements have been made, demonstrating that WISE penetrates in strongly scattering environments.
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Naaim-Bouvet, F., Bellot, H., Nishimura, K., Genthon, C., Palerme, C., Guyomarc'h, G., et al. (2014). Detection of snowfall occurrence during blowing snow events using photoelectric sensors. Cold Regions Science And Technology, 106, 11–21.
Abstract: There is a strong need to identify blowing snow events with and without concurrent falling snow and to estimate solid precipitation amounts in mountainous areas and polar regions. For these purposes, we first developed a method using the concomitant analysis of an anemometer and a drifting snow sensors (SPC-S7 and Wenglor/YH03PCT8-YH08PCT8). Photoelectric sensors, such as the SPC-S7 (Snow Particle Counter), specially designed for studying drifting snow, or a simpler photoelectric counter manufactured by Wenglor, were chosen because they had already been tested in previous studies for measuring solid precipitation. They were set up at Lac Blanc Pass, an experimental site dedicated to the study of drifting snow in the French Alps. The data set obtained was compared with the independent database of blowing snow events with or without falling snow collected at the same experimental site, i.e. data on the precipitation amount stemming from heated precipitation gauge and SAFRAN modeling output The analysis of snow flux and mean diameter according to wind speed allowed us to separate blowing snow events with and without precipitation for moderate wind speed. To reduce the uncertainty at high wind speed, the SPC-S7 must be set up at least 4 m above the snow surface. Similar preliminary results were obtained with the simpler Wenglor photoelectric counter, despite the minimum observable diameter being 200 pm and the particle size distribution unavailable. These results must be confirmed by further experiments. The SPC-S7- estimated precipitation amount is in relatively good agreement with modeled precipitation given the many uncertainties due to the calculation hypotheses. Since the particle size distribution is not available for the simpler photoelectric counter and there are too many uncertainties and hypotheses in calculating solid precipitation, we concluded that the solid precipitation amount cannot be reliably estimated by the simple photoelectric counter. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Palerme, C., Kay, J. E., Genthon, C., L'Ecuyer, T., Wood, N. B., & Claud, C. (2014). How much snow falls on the Antarctic ice sheet? Cryosphere, 8(4), 1577–1587.
Abstract: Climate models predict Antarctic precipitation to increase during the 21st century, but their present day Antarctic precipitation differs. A model-independent climatology of the Antarctic precipitation characteristics, such as snowfall rates and frequency, is needed to assess the models, but it is not yet available. Satellite observations of precipitation by active sensors has been possible in the polar regions since the launch of CloudSat in 2006. Here, we use two CloudSat products to generate the first multi-year, model-independent climatology of Antarctic precipitation. The first product is used to determine the frequency and the phase of precipitation, while the second product is used to assess the snowfall rate. The mean snowfall rate from August 2006 to April 2011 is 171mm year(-1) over the Antarctic ice sheet, north of 82 degrees S. While uncertainties on individual precipitation retrievals from CloudSat data are potentially large, the mean uncertainty should be much smaller, but cannot be easily estimated. There are no in situ measurements of Antarctic precipitation to directly assess the new climatology. However, distributions of both precipitation occurrences and rates generally agree with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set, the production of which is constrained by various in situ and satellite observations, but does not use any data from CloudSat. The new data set thus offers unprecedented capability to quantitatively assess Antarctic precipitation statistics and rates in climate models.
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Picard, G., Royer, A., Arnaud, L., & Fily, M. (2014). Influence of meter-scale wind-formed features on the variability of the microwave brightness temperature around Dome C in Antarctica. Cryosphere, 8(3), 1105–1119.
Abstract: Space-borne passive microwave radiometers are widely used to retrieve information in snowy regions by exploiting the high sensitivity of microwave emission to snow properties. For the Antarctic Plateau, many studies presenting retrieval algorithms or numerical simulations have assumed, explicitly or not, that the subpixel-scale heterogeneity is negligible and that the retrieved properties were representative of whole pixels. In this paper, we investigate the spatial variations of brightness temperature over a range of a few kilometers in the Dome C area. Using ground-based radiometers towed by a vehicle, we collected brightness temperature at 11, 19 and 37 GHz at horizontal and vertical polarizations along transects with meter resolution. The most remarkable observation was a series of regular undulations of the signal with a significant amplitude reaching 10K at 37 GHz and a quasi-period of 30-50 m. In contrast, the variability at longer length scales seemed to be weak in the investigated area, and the mean brightness temperature was close to SSM/I and WindSat satellite observations for all the frequencies and polarizations. To establish a link between the snow characteristics and the microwave emission undulations, we collected detailed snow grain size and density profiles at two points where opposite extrema of brightness temperature were observed. Numerical simulations with the DMRT-ML microwave emission model revealed that the difference in density in the upper first meter explained most of the brightness temperature variations. In addition, we found that these variations of density near the surface were linked to snow hardness. Patches of hard snow – probably formed by wind compaction – were clearly visible and covered as much as 39% of the investigated area. Their brightness temperature was higher than in normal areas. This result implies that the microwave emission measured by satellites over Dome C is more complex than expected and very likely depends on the year-to-year areal proportion of the two different types of snow.
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Ricaud, P., Carminati, F., Courcoux, Y., Pellegrini, A., Attie, J. L., El Amraoui, L., et al. (2014). Statistical analyses and correlation between tropospheric temperature and humidity at Dome C, Antarctica. Antarctic Science, 26(3), 290–308.
Abstract: The Dome C (Concordia) station in Antarctica (75 degrees 06 ' S, 123 degrees 21 ' E, 3233 m above mean sea level) has a unique opportunity to test the quality of remote-sensing measurements and meteorological analyses because it is situated well inside the Eastern Antarctic Plateau and is less affected by local phenomena. Measurements of tropospheric temperature and water vapour (H2O) together with the integrated water vapour (IWV) performed in 2010 are statistically analysed to assess their quality and to study the yearly correlation between temperature and H2O over the entire troposphere. The statistical tools include yearly evolution, seasonally-averaged mean and bias, standard deviation and linear Pearson correlation. The datasets are made of measurements from the ground-based microwave radiometer H2O Antarctica Microwave Stratospheric and Tropospheric Radiometer (HAMSTRAD), radiosonde, in situ sensors, the space-borne infrared sensors Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the MetOp-A platform and the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua platform, and the analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Despite some obvious biases within all these datasets, our study shows that temperature and IWV are generally measured with high quality whilst H2O measurement quality is slightly worse. The AIRS and IASI measurements do not have the vertical resolution to correctly probe the lowermost troposphere, whilst HAMSTRAD loses sensitivity in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. Within the entire troposphere over the whole year, it is found that the time evolution of temperature and H2O is highly correlated (> 0.8). This suggests that, in addition to the variability of solar radiation producing an obvious diurnal cycle in the planetary boundary layer in summer and an obvious seasonal cycle over the year, the H2O and temperature intra-seasonal variabilities are affected by the same processes, e.g. related to the long-range transport of air masses.
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Rinterknecht, V., Jomelli, V., Brunstein, D., Favier, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Bourles, D., et al. (2014). Unstable ice stream in Greenland during the Younger Dryas cold event. Geology, 42(9), 759–762.
Abstract: Past, present, and future ice sheet stability is closely linked to the dynamic behavior of major draining ice streams and surrounding ice shelves. While short observational records document the recent variability and acceleration of ice streams, the long-term dynamics of ice streams remain poorly documented. Here, we date the Pjetursson's Moraine on Disko Island, Greenland, to 12.2 +/- 0.6 ka and demonstrate that the Jakobshavn Isbr ae (JI) ice stream collapsed during the middle of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval. We suggest that this collapse was due to the incursion of warm subsurface water under the ice shelf fronting the JI ice stream, as well as increased surface-air temperature and sea-surface temperature seasonality starting at the beginning of the YD cold interval. The triggered acceleration of the land-based JI and the delivery of icebergs into Disko Bugt potentially contributed to Heinrich Event 0 at the end of the YD. The collapse of the JI ice stream 12.2 +/- 0.6 ka ago demonstrates that calving marine-based ice margins can respond rapidly to environmental changes. It provides a new benchmark for marine-terminating ice stream models.
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Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bugelmayer, M., Charbit, S., & Ritz, C. (2014). Adding a dynamical cryosphere to iLOVECLIM (version 1.0): coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), 1377–1394.
Abstract: We present a coupling approach to and the first results of the GRISLI ice-sheet model within the iLOVECLIM-coupled climate model. The climate component is a relatively low-resolution earth system model of intermediate complexity, well suited for long-term integrations and thus for coupled climate-cryosphere studies. We describe the coupling procedure with emphasis on the down-scaling scheme and the methods to compute the snow fraction from total precipitation fields. We then present results for the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial climate conditions at the end of a 14 000 yr long integration. The simulated ice sheet presents too large a thickness in its central part owing to the overestimation of precipitation in the atmospheric component. We find that including downscaling procedures for temperature improves the temperature distributions over Greenland for both the summer and annual means. We also find an ice-sheet areal extent that is overestimated with respect to the observed Greenland ice sheet.
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Samson, G., Masson, S., Lengaigne, M., Keerthi, M. G., Vialard, J., Pous, S., et al. (2014). The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 6(3), 700–722.
Abstract: This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common 1/4 degrees horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990-2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal rainfall and a realistic northward seasonal migration of monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. At subseasonal time scales, the model reasonably reproduces summer monsoon active and break phases, although with underestimated rainfall and surface wind signals. Its relatively high resolution results in realistic spatial and seasonal distributions of tropical cyclones, but it fails to reproduce the strongest observed cyclone categories. At interannual time scales, themodel reproduces the observed variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD development (through the effect of lateral boundary conditions in our simulations). Although the KF and BMJ simulations share a lot in common, KF strongly overestimates rainfall at all time scales. KF also overestimates the number of simulated cyclones by a factor two, while simulating stronger events (up to 55 m s(-1)) compared to BMJ (up to 40 m s(-1)). These results could be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF.
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Schafer, M., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Pettersson, R., Pohjola, V. A., Strozzi, T., et al. (2014). Assessment of heat sources on the control of fast flow of Vestfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Cryosphere, 8(5), 1951–1973.
Abstract: Understanding the response of fast flowing ice streams or outlet glaciers to changing climate is crucial in order to make reliable projections of sea level change over the coming decades. Motion of fast outlet glaciers occurs largely through basal motion governed by physical processes at the glacier bed, which are not yet fully understood. Various subglacial mechanisms have been suggested for fast flow but common to most of the suggested processes is the requirement of presence of liquid water, and thus temperate conditions. We use a combination of modelling, field, and remote observations in order to study links between different heat sources, the thermal regime and basal sliding in fast flowing areas on Vestfonna ice cap. A special emphasis lies on Franklinbreen, a fast flowing outlet glacier which has been observed to accelerate recently. We use the ice flow model Elmer/Ice including a Weertman type sliding law and a Robin inverse method to infer basal friction parameters from observed surface velocities. Firn heating, i.e. latent heat release through percolation of melt water, is included in our model; its parameterisation is calibrated with the temperature record of a deep borehole. We found that strain heating is negligible, whereas friction heating is identified as one possible trigger for the onset of fast flow. Firn heating is a significant heat source in the central thick and slow flowing area of the ice cap and the essential driver behind the ongoing fast flow in all outlets. Our findings suggest a possible scenario of the onset and maintenance of fast flow on the Vestfonna ice cap based on thermal processes and emphasise the role of latent heat released through refreezing of percolating melt water for fast flow. However, these processes cannot yet be captured in a temporally evolving sliding law. In order to simulate correctly fast flowing outlet glaciers, ice flow models not only need to account fully for all heat sources, but also need to incorporate a sliding law that is not solely based on the basal temperature, but also on hydrology and/or sediment physics.
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Spence, P., Griffies, S. M., England, M. H., Hogg, A. M., Saenko, O. A., & Jourdain, N. C. (2014). Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(13), 4601–4610.
Abstract: The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2 degrees C at 200-700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.
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Trouvilliez, A., Naaim-Bouvet, F., Genthon, C., Piard, L., Favier, V., Bellot, H., et al. (2014). A novel experimental study of aeolian snow transport in Adelie Land (Antarctica). Cold Regions Science And Technology, 108, 125–138.
Abstract: None of the previous aeolian snow transport campaigns in Antarctica meet the requirements in terms of temporal resolution, long-term series and qualified instruments for evaluations of meteorological and climate models including parameterization for aeolian snow transport. Consequently, determining the quantity of snow transported remains a challenge. A field campaign was therefore launched in January 2009, in Adelie Land, Antarctica, to acquire new model-evaluation-oriented observations within the European ICE2SEA project, with the logistical support of the French polar Institute (IPEV). The available aeolian snow transport sensors are reviewed and the sensor that best suited our specific needs was chosen: FlowCapt (TM) acoustic sensors. Three automatic weather stations were deployed with FlowCapts (TM) close to the coast. The stations' locations are distinct, ranging from 1 to 100 km inland, one of them with a 7-m mast with six levels of anemometers and thermohygrometers. The fluid and impact threshold friction velocities recorded were 0.48 +/- 0.09 m s(-1) and 0.4 +/- 0.09 m s(-1), respectively, with a high standard deviation of 0.12 +/- 0.03 m s(-1) and 0.13 +/- 0.03 m s(-1), respectively. The aeolian snow transport frequency in Adelie Land was very high with seasonal variation of transport occurring with minima during the austral summer. Seven percent of the aeolian snow transport events were drifting snow (maximum particle's height, < 1 m above the surface). The snow quantity transported was above 1 kiloton per year in the first meter above the surface. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Vicars, W. C., & Savarino, J. (2014). Quantitative constraints on the O-17-excess (Delta O-17) signature of surface ozone: Ambient measurements from 50 degrees N to 50 degrees S using the nitrite-coated filter technique. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta, 135, 270–287.
Abstract: The unique and distinctive O-17-excess (Delta O-17) of ozone (O-3) provides a conservative tracer for oxidative processes in both modern and paleo-atmospheres and has acted as the primary driver of theoretical and experimental research into non-mass-dependent fractionation (NMDF) for over three decades. However, due to the inherent complexity of extracting O-3 from ambient air, the existing observational dataset for tropospheric O-3 isotopic composition remains quite small. Recent analytical developments have provided a robust and reliable means for determining Delta O-17(O-3)(trans.), the transferrable Delta O-17 signature of ozone in the troposphere (Vicars et al., 2012). We have employed this new methodology in a systematic investigation of the spatial and seasonal features of Delta O-17(O-3)(trans.) in two separate field campaigns: a weekly sampling effort at our laboratory in Grenoble, France (45 degrees N) throughout 2012 (n = 47) and a four-week campaign onboard the Research Vessel (R/V) Polarstern along a latitudinal transect from 50 degrees S to 50 degrees N in the Atlantic Ocean (n = 30). The bulk O-17-excess of ozone, denoted Delta O-17(O-3)(bulk), exhibited mean (+/- 1 sigma) values of 26.2 +/- 1.3 parts per thousand (Delta O-17(O-3)(trans.) = 39.3 +/- 2.0 parts per thousand) and 25.9 +/- 1.1 parts per thousand (Delta O-17(O-3)(trans.) = 38.8 +/- 1.6 parts per thousand) for the Grenoble and R/V Polarstern collections, respectively. This range of values is in excellent quantitative agreement with the two previous studies of ozone triple-isotope composition, which have yielded mean (+/- 1 sigma) Delta O-17(O-3)(bulk) values of 25.4 +/- 9.0 parts per thousand (n = 89). However, the magnitude of variability detected in the present study is much smaller than that formerly reported. In fact, the standard deviation of Delta O-17(O-3)(bulk) in each new dataset is lower than the uncertainty previously estimated for the filter technique (+/- 1.7 parts per thousand), indicating a low level of natural spatial and temporal variation in the O-17-excess of surface ozone. For instance, no clear temporal pattern in Delta O-17(O-3) is evident in the annual record from Grenoble despite dramatic seasonal variations in ozone and atmospheric reactive nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) concentrations. However, a small but statistically significant difference is distinguishable in the R/V Polarstern record when comparing samples collected in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which possessed average Delta O-17(O-3)(bulk) values of 25.2 +/- 1.0 parts per thousand and 26.5 +/- 0.7 parts per thousand, respectively. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of the tropospheric ozone budget and the use of oxygen isotope ratios of secondary atmospheric species to derive information regarding oxidation pathways from modern and paleo-atmospheres. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Vihma, T., Pirazzini, R., Fer, I., Renfrew, I. A., Sedlar, J., Tjernstrom, M., et al. (2014). Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 14(17), 9403–9450.
Abstract: The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007-2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice-ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave-turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice-ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.
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Wang, T., Lin, X., Peng, S. S., Cong, N., & Piao, S. L. (2014). Multimodel projections and uncertainties of net ecosystem production in China over the twenty-first century. Chinese Science Bulletin, 59(34), 4681–4691.
Abstract: Ecosystems in China have been absorbing anthropogenic CO2 over the last three decades. Here, we assess future carbon uptake in China using models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under four socio-economic scenarios. The average of China's carbon sink from 2006 to 2100 represented by multimodel mean net ecosystem production (NEP) is projected to increase (relative to averaged NEP from 1976 to 2005) in the range of 0.137 and 0.891 PgC a(-1) across different scenarios. Increases in NEP are driven by increases in net primary production exceeding increases in heterotrophic respiration, and future carbon sink is mainly attributed to areas located in eastern China. However, there exists a considerable model spread in the magnitude of carbon sink and model spread tends to be larger when future climate change becomes more intense. The model spread may result from intermodel discrepancy in the magnitude of CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis, soil carbon turnover time, presence of carbon-nitrogen cycle and interpretation of land-use changes. For better quantifying future carbon cycle, a research priority toward improving model representation of these processes is recommended.
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Wang, T., Ottle, C., Peng, S. S., Janssens, I. A., Lin, X., Poulter, B., et al. (2014). The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology. Global Change Biology, 20(5), 1473–1480.
Abstract: The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.
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Weiss, J., Girard, L., Gimbert, F., Amitrano, D., & Vandembroucq, D. (2014). (Finite) statistical size effects on compressive strength. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 111(17), 6231–6236.
Abstract: The larger structures are, the lower their mechanical strength. Already discussed by Leonardo da Vinci and Edme Mariotte several centuries ago, size effects on strength remain of crucial importance in modern engineering for the elaboration of safety regulations in structural design or the extrapolation of laboratory results to geophysical field scales. Under tensile loading, statistical size effects are traditionally modeled with a weakest-link approach. One of its prominent results is a prediction of vanishing strength at large scales that can be quantified in the framework of extreme value statistics. Despite a frequent use outside its range of validity, this approach remains the dominant tool in the field of statistical size effects. Here we focus on compressive failure, which concerns a wide range of geophysical and geotechnical situations. We show on historical and recent experimental data that weakest-link predictions are not obeyed. In particular, the mechanical strength saturates at a nonzero value toward large scales. Accounting explicitly for the elastic interactions between defects during the damage process, we build a formal analogy of compressive failure with the depinning transition of an elastic manifold. This critical transition interpretation naturally entails finite-size scaling laws for the mean strength and its associated variability. Theoretical predictions are in remarkable agreement with measurements reported for various materials such as rocks, ice, coal, or concrete. This formalism, which can also be extended to the flowing instability of granular media under multiaxial compression, has important practical consequences for future design rules.
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Yue, C., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Thonicke, K., Archibald, S., Poulter, B., et al. (2014). Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 1: simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(6), 2747–2767.
Abstract: Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, which was then used to simulate burned area over the 20th century. Special attention was paid to the evaluation of other fire regime indicators such as seasonality, fire size and fire length, next to burned area. For 2001-2006, the simulated global spatial extent of fire agrees well with that given by satellite-derived burned area data sets (L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, GFED3.1), and 76-92% of the global burned area is simulated as collocated between the model and observation, depending on which data set is used for comparison. The simulated global mean annual burned area is 346 Mha yr(-1), which falls within the range of 287-384 Mha yr(-1) as given by the three observation data sets; and is close to the 344 Mha yr(-1) by the GFED3.1 data when crop fires are excluded. The simulated long-term trend and variation of burned area agree best with the observation data in regions where fire is mainly driven by climate variation, such as boreal Russia (1930-2009), along with Canada and US Alaska (1950-2009). At the global scale, the simulated decadal fire variation over the 20th century is only in moderate agreement with the historical reconstruction, possibly because of the uncertainties of past estimates, and because land-use change fires and fire suppression are not explicitly included in the model. Over the globe, the size of large fires (the 95th quantile fire size) is underestimated by the model for the regions of high fire frequency, compared with fire patch data as reconstructed from MODIS 500 m burned area data. Two case studies of fire size distribution in Canada and US Alaska, and southern Africa indicate that both number and size of large fires are underestimated, which could be related with short fire patch length and low daily fire size. Future efforts should be directed towards building consistent spatial observation data sets for key parameters of the model in order to constrain the model error at each key step of the fire modelling.
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Zolina, O. (2014). Multidecadal trends in the duration of wet spells and associated intensity of precipitation as revealed by a very dense observational German network. Environmental Research Letters, 9(2).
Abstract: Precipitation durations and intensities over the period 1950-2008 are analysed using daily rain gauge data from the Deutsche Wetterdienst raingauge network-one of the densest and most properly maintained precipitation observational networks in Europe. Truncated geometric distribution of the family of discrete distributions was applied for quantifying probability distribution of the durations of wet spells. Further intensities of wet spells of different durations were analysed along with wet spell lengths. During the cold season (October-March) wet periods over the whole of Germany demonstrate a robust pattern of lengthening by about 2-3% for the mean durations of wet spells and up to 6% for extremely long wet periods. This tendency is clearly associated with growing (up to 10% per decade in Eastern Germany) intensity of precipitation during long wet periods (more than 5 days) and the weakening of precipitation events associated with short and moderately long wet periods with both signals being statistically significant. Trends are superimposed with interdecadal variability, which is the strongest in Northern and Central Germany. In the warm season (April-September) there is no robust pan-German trend pattern in the wet spell durations and associated precipitation intensities. Strong structural changes in winter precipitation over Germany potentially imply growing rates of winter ground water recharge over Germany and increasing probability of winter flash and river flooding.
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Zolina, O., Simmer, C., Kapala, A., Shabanov, P., Becker, P., Machel, H., et al. (2014). Precipitation Variability and Extremes in Central Europe New View from STAMMEX Results. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 95(7), 995–+.
Abstract: The STAMMEX (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe) project has developed a high-resolution gridded long-term precipitation dataset based on the daily-observing precipitation network of the German Weather Service DWD, which runs one of the world's densest rain gauge networks, comprising more than 7,500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onward (with 0.5 degrees resolution), 1951-onward (0.5 degrees and 0.25 degrees), and 1971-2000 (0.5 degrees, 0.25 degrees, and 0.1 degrees). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over; hilly;terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates, the STAMMEX datasets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-stale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS)-which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX-demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability patterns and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids, based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models.
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Zscheischler, J., Michalak, A. M., Schwalm, C., Mahecha, M. D., Huntzinger, D. N., Reichstein, M., et al. (2014). Impact of large-scale climate extremes on biospheric carbon fluxes: An intercomparison based on MsTMIP data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 28(6), 585–600.
Abstract: Understanding the role of climate extremes and their impact on the carbon (C) cycle is increasingly a focus of Earth system science. Climate extremes such as droughts, heat waves, or heavy precipitation events can cause substantial changes in terrestrial C fluxes. On the other hand, extreme changes in C fluxes are often, but not always, driven by extreme climate conditions. Here we present an analysis of how extremes in temperature and precipitation, and extreme changes in terrestrial C fluxes are related to each other in 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial carbon models, all driven by the same climate forcing. We use model outputs from the North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A global-scale analysis shows that both droughts and heat waves translate into anomalous net releases of CO2 from the land surface via different mechanisms: Droughts largely decrease gross primary production (GPP) and to a lower extent total respiration (TR), while heat waves slightly decrease GPP but increase TR. Cold and wet periods have a smaller opposite effect. Analyzing extremes in C fluxes reveals that extreme changes in GPP and TR are often caused by strong shifts in water availability, but for extremes in TR shifts in temperature are also important. Extremes in net CO2 exchange are equally strongly driven by deviations in temperature and precipitation. Models mostly agree on the sign of the C flux response to climate extremes, but model spread is large. In tropical forests, C cycle extremes are driven by water availability, whereas in boreal forests temperature plays a more important role. Models are particularly uncertain about the C flux response to extreme heat in boreal forests.
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