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OSUG - Terre Univers Environnement

Flash flood impacts forecasting utilizing anthropogenic vulnerability factors

Martin CALIANNO (IE -CDD)

10 novembre 2016 ( maj : 22 décembre 2016 )

Spatial character of flash flood impacts is strongly influenced by surface controls. Low-water crossings, infrastructure built in close proximity to streams, normally dry riverbeds in populated zones, and roads in low-lying areas are all examples of anthropogenic factors that increase societal vulnerability to flash flooding.

In our work, we rely on a detailed impact classification and analysis of flash flood reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Data and Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) conducted at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma. The flash flood impact database is then used to derive static vulnerability indices using GIS layers of road networks, population density, stream locations, elevation, degree of imperviousness (urbanization), land use, etc. The vulnerability indices are then used in conjunction with distributed hydrologic model simulations to improve the specificity and accuracy of forecasts, with a focus on the particular impacts. Two extreme flash flooding events in Oklahoma are studied to demonstrate the new approach, highlighting improvements and shortcomings.