Uncertainties in mid-latitude climate change : role of sea surface temperature and sea ice

Séminaire de Noel Keenlyside (Bergen, Norway), mardi 5 nov. à 10h, salle Lliboutry, bât. de Glaciologie

Abstract :
Model based projections of future climate change are highly uncertain at regional scales, and this is make the development of climate adaptation strategies a challenge. This talks focuses on understanding uncertainties in the projected northern winter future climate. Firstly we assess the uncertainties in projected changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in a set of CMIP5 model experiments. Secondly, we relate the uncertainties to differences in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) through analysis of the CMIP5 models and by performing experiments with two atmospheric models. Through these we show that tropical SST is a major source of uncertainty in northern hemisphere climate change and that SIC modulates the response but is of secondary importance at mid-latitudes. We identify the mechanisms and highlight uncertainties in the atmospheric responses.

Par : Prof. Noel Keenlyside from Geophysical Institute, Univ of Bergen, Norway

Séminaire animé par Olga Zolina